Publications

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We present a simple and powerful technique for finding a good error model for a quantum processor. The technique iteratively tests a nested sequence of models against data obtained from the processor, and keeps track of the best-fit model and its wildcard error (a metric of the amount of unmodeled error) at each step. Each best-fit model, along with a quantification of its unmodeled error, constitutes a characterization of the processor. We explain how quantum processor models can be compared with experimental data and to each other. We demonstrate the technique by using it to characterize a simulated noisy two-qubit processor.

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With the rapid proliferation of additive manufacturing and 3D printing technologies, architected cellular solids including truss-like 3D lattice topologies offer the opportunity to program the effective material response through topological design at the mesoscale. The present report summarizes several of the key findings from a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. The program set out to explore novel lattice topologies that can be designed to control, redirect, or dissipate energy from one or multiple insult environments relevant to Sandia missions, including crush, shock/impact, vibration, thermal, etc. In the first 4 sections, we document four novel lattice topologies stemming from this study: coulombic lattices, multi-morphology lattices, interpenetrating lattices, and pore-modified gyroid cellular solids, each with unique properties that had not been achieved by existing cellular/lattice metamaterials. The fifth section explores how unintentional lattice imperfections stemming from the manufacturing process, primarily sur face roughness in the case of laser powder bed fusion, serve to cause stochastic response but that in some cases such as elastic response the stochastic behavior is homogenized through the adoption of lattices. In the sixth section we explore a novel neural network screening process that allows such stocastic variability to be predicted. In the last three sections, we explore considerations of computational design of lattices. Specifically, in section 7 using a novel generative optimization scheme to design novel pareto-optimal lattices for multi-objective environments. In section 8, we use computational design to optimize a metallic lattice structure to absorb impact energy for a 1000 ft/s impact. And in section 9, we develop a modified micromorphic continuum model to solve wave propagation problems in lattices efficiently.

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Over the past four years, an informal working group has developed to investigate existing sensitivity analysis methods, examine new methods, and identify best practices. The focus is on the use of sensitivity analysis in case studies involving geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel or nuclear waste. To examine ideas and have applicable test cases for comparison purposes, we have developed multiple case studies. Four of these case studies are presented in this report: the GRS clay case, the SNL shale case, the Dessel case, and the IBRAE groundwater case. We present the different sensitivity analysis methods investigated by various groups, the results obtained by different groups and different implementations, and summarize our findings.

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While computer systems, software applications, and operational technology (OT)/Industrial Control System (ICS) devices are regularly updated through automated and manual processes, there are several unique challenges associated with distributed energy resource (DER) patching. Millions of DER devices from dozens of vendors have been deployed in home, corporate, and utility network environments that may or may not be internet-connected. These devices make up a growing portion of the electric power critical infrastructure system and are expected to operate for decades. During that operational period, it is anticipated that critical and noncritical firmware patches will be regularly created to improve DER functional capabilities or repair security deficiencies in the equipment. The SunSpec/Sandia DER Cybersecurity Workgroup created a Patching Subgroup to investigate appropriate recommendations for the DER patching, holding fortnightly meetings for more than nine months. The group focused on DER equipment, but the observations and recommendations contained in this report also apply to DERMS tools and other OT equipment used in the end-to-end DER communication environment. The group found there were many standards and guides that discuss firmware lifecycles, patch and asset management, and code-signing implementations, but did not singularly cover the needs of the DER industry. This report collates best practices from these standards organizations and establishes a set of best practices that may be used as a basis for future national or international patching guides or standards.

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Scientific applications run on high-performance computing (HPC) systems are critical for many national security missions within Sandia and the NNSA complex. However, these applications often face performance degradation and even failures that are challenging to diagnose. To provide unprecedented insight into these issues, the HPC Development, HPC Systems, Computational Science, and Plasma Theory & Simulation departments at Sandia crafted and completed their FY21 ASC Level 2 milestone entitled "Integrated System and Application Continuous Performance Monitoring and Analysis Capability." The milestone created a novel integrated HPC system and application monitoring and analysis capability by extending Sandia's Kokkos application portability framework, Lightweight Distributed Metric Service (LDMS) monitoring tool, and scalable storage, analysis, and visualization pipeline. The extensions to Kokkos and LDMS enable collection and storage of application data during run time, as it is generated, with negligible overhead. This data is combined with HPC system data within the extended analysis pipeline to present relevant visualizations of derived system and application metrics that can be viewed at run time or post run. This new capability was evaluated using several week-long, 290-node runs of Sandia's ElectroMagnetic Plasma In Realistic Environments ( EMPIRE ) modeling and design tool and resulted in 1TB of application data and 50TB of system data. EMPIRE developers remarked this capability was incredibly helpful for quickly assessing application health and performance alongside system state. In short, this milestone work built the foundation for expansive HPC system and application data collection, storage, analysis, visualization, and feedback framework that will increase total scientific output of Sandia's HPC users.

Arithmetic Coding (AC) using Prediction by Partial Matching (PPM) is a compression algorithm that can be used as a machine learning algorithm. This paper describes a new algorithm, NGram PPM. NGram PPM has all the predictive power of AC/PPM, but at a fraction of the computational cost. Unlike compression-based analytics, it is also amenable to a vector space interpretation, which creates the ability for integration with other traditional machine learning algorithms. AC/PPM is reviewed, including its application to machine learning. Then NGram PPM is described and test results are presented, comparing them to AC/PPM.

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This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

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A simple approach to simulate contact between deformable objects is presented which relies on levelset descriptions of the Lagrangian geometry and an optimization-based solver. Modeling contact between objects remains a significant challenge for computational mechanics simulations. Common approaches are either plagued by lack of robustness or are exceedingly complex and require a significant number of heuristics. In contrast, the levelset contact approach presented herein is essentially heuristic free. Furthermore, the presented algorithm enables resolving and enforcing contact between objects with a significant amount of initial overlap. Examples demonstrating the feasibility of this approach are shown, including the standard Hertz contact problem, the robust removal of overlap between two overlapping blocks, and overlap-removal and pre-load for a bolted configuration.

This report is a preliminary test plan of the seismic shake table test. The final report will be developed when all decisions regarding the test hardware, instrumentation, and shake table inputs are made. A new revision of this report will be issued in spring of 2022. The preliminary test plan documents the free-field ground motions that will be used as inputs to the shake table, the test hardware, and instrumentation. It also describes the facility at which the test will take place in late summer of 2022.

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Detonations and flames are characterized by three-dimensional (3D) temperature fields, yet state-of- the-art temperature measurement techniques yield information at a point or along a line. The goal of the research documented here was to combine ultrafast laser spectroscopy and structured illumination to deliver an unprecedented measurement capability—three-dimensional, instantaneous temperature measurements in a gas-phase volume. To achieve this objective, different parts of the proposed technique were developed and tested independently. Structured illumination was used to image particulate matter (soot) in a turbulent flame at multiple planes using a single laser pulse and a single camera. Emission spectroscopy with structured detection was demonstrated for emission- based measurements of explosives with enhance dimensionality. Finally, an instrument for multi- planar laser-based temperature measurement technique was developed. Structured illumination techniques will continue to be developed for multi-dimensional and multi-parameter measurements. These new measurement capabilities will be important for heat transfer and fluid dynamic research areas.

This project focused on providing a fundamental physico-chemical understanding of the coupling mechanisms of corrosion- and radiation-induced degradation at material-salt interfaces in Ni-based alloys operating in emulated Molten Salt Reactor(MSR) environments through the use of a unique suite of aging experiments, in-situ nanoscale characterization experiments on these materials, and multi-physics computational models. The technical basis and capabilities described in this report bring us a step closer to accelerate the deployment of MSRs by closing knowledge gaps related to materials degradation in harsh environments.

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This user’s guide documents capabilities in Sierra/SolidMechanics which remain “in-development” and thus are not tested and hardened to the standards of capabilities listed in Sierra/SM 5.2 User’s Guide. Capabilities documented herein are available in Sierra/SM for experimental use only until their official release. These capabilities include, but are not limited to, novel discretization approaches such as the conforming reproducing kernel (CRK) method, numerical fracture and failure modeling aids such as the extended finite element method (XFEM) and J-integral, explicit time step control techniques, dynamic mesh rebalancing, as well as a variety of new material models and finite element formulations.

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This document describes the Power and Energy Storage Systems Toolbox for MATLAB, abbreviated as PSTess. This computing package is a fork of the Power Systems Toolbox (PST). PST was originally developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and later upgraded by Dr. Graham Rogers at Cherry Tree Scientific Software. While PSTess shares a common lineage with PST Version 3.0, it is a substantially different application. This document supplements the main PST manual by describing the features and models that are unique to PSTess. As the name implies, the main distinguishing characteristic of PSTess is its ability to model inverter-based energy storage systems (ESS). The model that enables this is called ess.m , and it serves the dual role of representing ESS operational constraints and the generator/converter interface. As in the WECC REGC_A model, the generator/converter interface is modeled as a controllable current source with the ability to modulate both real and reactive current. The model ess.m permits four-quadrant modulation, which allows it to represent a wide variety of inverter-based resources beyond energy storage when paired with an appropriate supplemental control model. Examples include utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants, Type 4 wind plants, and static synchronous compensators (STATCOM). This capability is especially useful for modeling hybrid plants that combine energy storage with renewable resources or FACTS devices.

Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.

Zero-emissions hydrogen fuel cell electrical vehicles (FCEVs) have become more popular in recent years. However, the limited availability of hydrogen fueling stations is considered a critical barrier to sustainable adoption of hydrogen FCEV. To enable the widespread deployment and commercialization of hydrogen FCEV, the availability of hydrogen refueling stations needs to improve. One of the consequences of the lack of hydrogen refueling infrastructure is that consumers can suffer from “range anxiety”, meaning consumers would get anxious of running out of fuel during long-distance trip [4]. A practical solution is to provide a compact emergency hydrogen refueler that can be used if the consumer runs out of hydrogen before reaching the nearest hydrogen refueling station. A safe, compact, and user-friendly hydrogen refueler would give consumers the flexibility they need to feel comfortable using their hydrogen FCEV when planning a long-distance trip. Offering this product would alleviate range anxiety, and it would make Hydrogen FCEV a more attractive alternative to gasoline vehicles. The emergency hydrogen refueler consists of a lithium hydride bed that reacts with liquid water to produce hydrogen gas and lithium hydroxide.

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Downscaling of the silicon metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor technology is expected to reach a fundamental limit soon. A paradigm shift in computing is occurring. Spin field-effect transistors are considered a candidate architecture for next-generation microelectronics. Being able to leverage the existing infrastructure for silicon, a spin field-effect transistor technology based on group IV heterostructures will have unparalleled technical and economical advantages. For the same material platform reason, germanium hole quantum dots are also considered a competitive architecture for semiconductor-based quantum technology. In this project, we investigated several approaches to creating hole devices in germanium-based materials as well as injecting hole spins in such structures. We also explored the roles of hole injection in wet chemical etching of germanium. Our main results include the demonstration of germanium metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors operated at cryogenic temperatures, ohmic current-voltage characteristics in germanium/silicon-germanium heterostructures with ferromagnetic contacts at deep cryogenic temperatures and high magnetic fields, evaluation of the effects of surface preparation on carrier mobility in germanium/silicon- germanium heterostructures, and hole spin polarization through integrated permanent magnets. These results serve as essential components for fabricating next-generation germanium-based devices for microelectronics and quantum systems.

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Rock Valley, in the southern end of the Nevada National Security Site, hosts a fault system that was responsible for a shallow (< 3 km below surface ) magnitude 3.7 earthquake in May 1993. In order to better understand this system, seismic properties of the shallow subsurface need to be better constrained. In April and May of 2021, accelerated weight drop (AWD) active-source seismic data were recorded in order to measure P- and S-wave travel-times for the area. This report describes the processing and phase picking of the recorded seismic waveforms. In total, we picked 7,982 P-wave arrivals at offsets up to ~2500 m, and 4,369 S-wave arrivals at offsets up to ~2200 m. These travel-time picks can be inverted for shallow P-wave and S-wave velocity structure in future studies.

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An active source experiment using an accelerated weight drop was conducted in Rock Valley, Nevada National Security Site, during the spring of 2021 in order to characterize the shallow seismic structure of the region. P-wave first arrival travel times picked from this experiment were used to construct a preliminary 3-D compressional wave speed model over an area that is roughly 4 km wide east-west and 8 km north-south to a depth of about 500-600 m below the surface, but with primary data concentration along the transects of the experimental lines. The preliminary model shows good correlation with basic geology and surface features, but geological interpretation is not the focus of this report. We describe the methods used in the tomographic inversion of the data and show results from this preliminary P-wave model.

Nonlocal models naturally handle a range of physics of interest to SNL, but discretization of their underlying integral operators poses mathematical challenges to realize the accuracy and robustness commonplace in discretization of local counterparts. This project focuses on the concept of asymptotic compatibility, namely preservation of the limit of the discrete nonlocal model to a corresponding well-understood local solution. We address challenges that have traditionally troubled nonlocal mechanics models primarily related to consistency guarantees and boundary conditions. For simple problems such as diffusion and linear elasticity we have developed complete error analysis theory providing consistency guarantees. We then take these foundational tools to develop new state-of-the-art capabilities for: lithiation-induced failure in batteries, ductile failure of problems driven by contact, blast-on-structure induced failure, brittle/ductile failure of thin structures. We also summarize ongoing efforts using these frameworks in data-driven modeling contexts. This report provides a high-level summary of all publications which followed from these efforts.

All energy production systems need efficient energy conversion systems. Current Rankine cycles use water to generate steam at temperatures where efficiency is limited to around 40%. As existing fossil and nuclear power plants are decommissioned due to end of effective life and/or societies’ desire for cleaner generation options, more efficient energy conversion is needed to keep up with increasing electricity demands. Modern energy generation technologies, such as advanced nuclear reactors and concentrated solar, coupled to high efficiency sCO₂ conversion systems provide a solution to efficient, clean energy systems. Leading R&D communities worldwide agree that the successful development of sCO₂ Brayton power cycle technology will eventually bring about large-scale changes to existing multi-billion-dollar global markets and enable power applications not currently possible or economically justifiable. However, all new technologies face challenges in the path to commercialization and the electricity sector is distinctively risk averse. The Sandia sCO₂ Brayton team needs to better understand what the electricity sector needs in terms of new technology risk mitigation, generation efficiency, reliability improvements above current technology, and cost requirements which would make new technology adoption worthwhile. Relying on the R&D community consensus that a sCO₂ power cycle will increase the revenue of the electrical industry, without addressing the electrical industry’s concerns, significantly decreases the potential for adoption at commercial scale. With a clear understanding of the market perspectives on technology adoption, including military, private sector, and utilities customers, the Sandia Brayton Team can resolve industry concerns for smoother development and faster transition to commercialization. An extensive customer discovery process, similar to that executed through the NSF’s I-Corp program, is necessary in order to understand the pain points of the market and articulate the value proposition of Brayton systems in terms that engage decision makers and facilitate commercialization of the technology.

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Hole spin qubits confined to lithographically - defined lateral quantum dots in Ge/SiGe heterostructures show great promise. On reason for this is the intrinsic spin - orbit coupling that allows all - electric control of the qubit. That same feature can be exploited as a coupling mechanism to coherently link spin qubits to a photon field in a superconducting resonator, which could, in principle, be used as a quantum bus to distribute quantum information. The work reported here advances the knowledge and technology required for such a demonstration. We discuss the device fabrication and characterization of different quantum dot designs and the demonstration of single hole occupation in multiple devices. Superconductor resonators fabricated using an outside vendor were found to have adequate performance and a path toward flip-chip integration with quantum devices is discussed. The results of an optical study exploring aspects of using implanted Ga as quantum memory in a Ge system are presented.

Deep neural networks (NNs) typically outperform traditional machine learning (ML) approaches for complicated, non-linear tasks. It is expected that deep learning (DL) should offer superior performance for the important non-proliferation task of predicting explosive device configuration based upon observed optical signature, a task which human experts struggle with. However, supervised machine learning is difficult to apply in this mission space because most recorded signatures are not associated with the corresponding device description, or “truth labels.” This is challenging for NNs, which traditionally require many samples for strong performance. Semi-supervised learning (SSL), low-shot learning (LSL), and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NNs are emerging approaches that could bridge the mission gaps of few labels and rare samples of importance. NN explainability techniques are important in gaining insight into the inferential feature importance of such a complex model. In this work, SSL, LSL, and UQ are merged into a single framework, a significant technical hurdle not previously demonstrated. Exponential Average Adversarial Training (EAAT) and Pairwise Neural Networks (PNNs) are chosen as the SSL and LSL methods of choice. Permutation feature importance (PFI) for functional data is used to provide explainability via the Variable importance Explainable Elastic Shape Analysis (VEESA) pipeline. A variety of uncertainty quantification approaches are explored: Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), ensemble methods, concrete dropout, and evidential deep learning. Two final approaches, one utilizing ensemble methods and one utilizing evidential learning, are constructed and compared using a well-quantified synthetic 2D dataset along with the DIRSIG Megascene.

Denoising contaminated seismic signals for later processing is a fundamental problem in seismic signals analysis. The most straightforward denoising approach, using spectral filtering, is not effective when noise and seismic signal occupy the same frequency range. Neural network approaches have shown success denoising local signal when trained on short-time Fourier transform spectrograms (Zhu et al 2018; Tibi et al 2021). Scalograms, a wavelet-based transform, achieved ~15% better reconstruction as measured by dynamic time warping on a seismic waveform test set than spectrograms, suggesting their use as an alternative for denoising. We train a deep neural network on a scalogram dataset derived from waveforms recorded by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations network. We find that initial results are no better than a spectrogram approach, with additional overhead imposed by the significantly larger size of scalograms. A robust exploration of neural network hyperparameters and network architecture was not performed, which could be done in follow on work.

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In order to establish a zone of influence (ZOI) due to a high energy arcing fault (HEAF) environment, the fragility of the targets must be determined. The high heat flux/short duration exposure of a HEAF is considerably different than that of a traditional hydrocarbon fire, which previous research has addressed. The previous failure metrics (e.g., internal jacket temperature of a cable exposed to a fire) were based on low heat flux/long duration exposures. Because of this, evaluation of different physics and failure modes was considered to evaluate the fragility of cables exposed to a HEAF. Tests on cable targets were performed at high heat flux/short duration exposures to gain insight on the relevant physics and failure modes. These tests yielded data on several relevant failure modes, including electrical failure and sustained ignition. Additionally, the results indicated a relationship between the total energy of exposure and the damage state of the cable target. This data can be used to inform the fragility of the targets.

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Nonlocal models use integral operators that embed length-scales in their definition. However, the integrands in these operators are difficult to define from the data that are typically available for a given physical system, such as laboratory mechanical property tests. In contrast, molecular dynamics (MD) does not require these integrands, but it suffers from computational limitations in the length and time scales it can address. To combine the strengths of both methods and to obtain a coarse-grained, homogenized continuum model that efficiently and accurately captures materials' behavior, we propose a learning framework to extract, from MD data, an optimal nonlocal model as a surrogate for MD displacements. Our framework guarantees that the resulting model is mathematically well-posed, physically consistent, and that it generalizes well to settings that are different from the ones used during training. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated with several numerical tests for single layer graphene both in the case of perfect crystal and in the presence of thermal noise.

Metallic lattice structures are being considered for shock mitigation applications due to their superior mechanical properties, energy absorption capability and lightweight characteristics inherent of the additive manufacturing process. In this study, shock compression experiments coupled to x-ray phase contrast imaging (PCI) were conducted on 316L stainless steel lattices. Meso-scale simulations incorporating the as-built lattice structure characterized by computed tomography were used to simulate PCI radiographs in CTH for direct comparison to experimental data. The methodology presented here offers robust validation for constitutive properties to further our understanding of lattice compaction at application-relevant strain rates.

This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

Efficient modeling of low magnetic Reynolds number (low-Rm) magnetohydrodynamics is often challenging and requires the implementation of innovative techniques to avoid key barriers experienced with prior approaches. We detail a new paradigm for first-principles simulation of the solution to the low-Rm governing equations in complex geometries. As a result of a number of innovative numerical advances, the next-generation GPU (graphics processing unit) accelerated physics code LGR has been successfully applied to the modeling of exploding wire problems.

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The main goal of this project was to create a state-of-the-art predictive capability that screens and identifies wellbores that are at the highest risk of catastrophic failure. This capability is critical to a host of subsurface applications, including gas storage, hydrocarbon extraction and storage, geothermal energy development, and waste disposal, which depend on seal integrity to meet U.S. energy demands in a safe and secure manner. In addition to the screening tool, this project also developed several other supporting capabilities to help understand fundamental processes involved in wellbore failure. This included novel experimental methods to characterize permeability and porosity evolution during compressive failure of cement, as well as methods and capabilities for understanding two-phase flow in damaged wellbore systems, and novel fracture-resistant cements made from recycled fibers.

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Sandia National Laboratories, California (SNL/CA) is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. The management and operations of the facility are under a contract with the DOE's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). On May 1, 2017, the name of the management and operating contractor changed from Sandia Corporation to National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS). The DOE, NNSA, Sandia Field Office administers the contract and oversees contractor operations at the site. DOE and its management and operating contractor for Sandia are committed to safeguarding environmental protection, compliance, and sustainability and to ensuring the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data presented in this Annual Site Environmental Report. This Site Environmental Report for 2020 was prepared in accordance with DOE Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting (DOE 2012). The report provides a summary of environmental monitoring information and compliance activities that occurred at SNL/CA during calendar year 2020, unless noted otherwise. General site and environmental program information is also included.

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An exceptional set of newly-discovered advanced superalloys known as refractory high-entropy alloys (RHEAs) can provide near-term solutions for wear, erosion, corrosion, high-temperature strength, creep, and radiation issues associated with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton Cycles and advanced nuclear reactors. In particular, these superalloys can significantly extend their durability, reliability, and thermal efficiency, thereby making them more cost-competitive, safer, and reliable. For this project, it was endeavored to manufacture and test certain RHEAs, to solve technical issues impacting the Brayton Cycle and advanced nuclear reactors. This was achieved by leveraging Sandia’s patents, technical advances, and previous experience working with RHEAs. Herein, three RHEA manufacturing methods were applied: laser engineered net shaping, spark plasma sintering, and spray coating. Two promising RHEAs were selected, HfNbTaZr and MoNbTaVW. To demonstrate their performance, erosion, structural, radiation, and hightemperature experiments were conducted on the RHEAs, stainless steel (SS) 316 L, SS 1020, and Inconel 718 test coupons, as well as bench-top components. The experimental data is presented, analyzed, and confirms the superior performance of the HfNbTaZr and MoNbTaVW RHEAs vs. SS 316 L, SS 1020, and Inconel 718. In addition, to gain more insights for larger-scale RHEA applications, the erosion and structural capabilities for the two RHEAs were simulated and compared with the experimental data. The experimental data confirm the superior performance of the HfNbTaZr and MoNbTaVW RHEAs vs. SS and Inconel. Most importantly, the erosion and the coating material experimental data show that erosion in sCO2 Brayton Cycles can be eliminated completely if RHEAs are used. The experimental suite and validations confirm that HfNbTaZr is suitable for harsh environments that do not include nuclear radiation, while MoNbTaVW is suitable for harsh environments that include radiation.

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

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The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies program utilizes modeling and simulation to assess Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) concerns for a variety of nuclear facilities. Single analyst tools allow for rapid design and evaluation of advanced approaches for new and existing nuclear facilities. A low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel conversion and fabrication facility simulator is developed to assist with MC&A for existing facilities. Measurements are added to the model (consistent with current best practices). Material balance calculations and statistical tests are also added to the model. In addition, scoping work is performed for developing a single stage aqueous reprocessing model. Preliminary results are presented and discussed, and next steps outlined.

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U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

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Recent work has shown that artificial opsonins stimulate the targeted destruction of bacteria by phagocyte immune cells. Artificial opsonization has the potential to direct the innate immune system to target novel antigens, potentially even viral pathogens. Furthermore, the engagement of innate immunity presents a potential solution for the spread of pandemics in a scenario when a vaccine is unavailable or ineffective. Funded by the LDRD late start bioscience pandemic response program, we tested whether artificial opsonins can be developed to target viral pathogens using phage MS2 and a SARS-CoV-2 surrogate. To direct opsonization against these viruses we purified antibody derived viral targeting motifs and attempted the same chemical conjugation strategies that produced bacterial targeting artificial opsonins. However, the viral targeting motifs proved challenging to conjugate using these methods, frequently resulting in precipitation and loss of product. Future studies may be successful with this approach if a smaller and more soluble viral-targeting peptide could be used.

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We present our research findings on the novel NDN protocol. In this work, we defined key attack scenarios for possible exploitation and detail software security testing procedures to evaluate the security of the NDN software. This work was done in the context of distributed energy resources (DER). The software security testing included an execution of unit tests and static code analyses to better understand the software rigor and the security that has been implemented. The results from the penetration testing are presented. Recommendations are discussed to provide additional defense for secure end-to-end NDN communications.

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Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive manufacturing (AM) has attracted interest as an agile method of building production metal parts to reduce design-build-test cycle times for systems. However, predicting part performance is difficult due to inherent process variabilities. This makes qualification challenging. Computational process models have attempted to address some of these challenges, including mesoscale, full physics models and reduced fidelity conduction models. The goal of this work is credible multi-fidelity modeling of the LPBF process by investigating methods for estimating the error between models of two different fidelities. Two methods of error estimation are investigated, adjoint-based error estimation and Bayesian calibration. Adjoint-based error estimation is found to effectively bounding the error between the two models, but with very conservative bounds, making predictions highly uncertain. Bayesian parameter calibration applied to conduction model heat source parameters is found to effectively bound the observed error between the models for melt pool morphology quantities of interest. However, the calibrations do not effectively bound the error in heat distribution.

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A new copper equation of state is developed utilizing the available experimental data in addition to recent theoretical calculations. Semi-empirical models are fit to the data and the results are tabulated in the SNL SESAME format. Comparison to other copper EOS tables are given, along with recommendations of which tables provide the best accuracy.

This report summarizes a series of SIERRA/Fuego validation efforts of turbulent flow models on canonical wall-bounded configurations. In particular, direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) turbulence models are tested on a periodic channel, a periodic pipe, and an open jet for which results are compared to the velocity profiles obtained theoretically or experimentally. Velocity inlet conditions for channel and pipe flows are developed for application to practical simulations. To show this capability, LES is performed over complex terrain in the form of two natural hills and the results are compared with other flow solvers. The practical purpose of the report is to document the creation of inflow boundary conditions of fully developed turbulent flows for other LES calculations where the role of inflow turbulence is critical.

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We use a nascent data-driven causal discovery method to find and compare causal relationships in observed data and climate model output. We consider ten different features in the Arctic climate collected from public databases on observational and Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) data. In identifying and analyzing the resulting causal networks, we make meaningful comparisons between observed and climate model interdependencies. This work demonstrates our ability to apply the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm to Arctic climate data, that there are noticeable similarities between observed and simulated Arctic climate dynamics, and that further work is needed to identify specific areas for improvement to better align models with natural observations.

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This work focuses on estimation of unknown states and parameters in a discrete-time, stochastic, SEIR model using reported case counts and mortality data. An SEIR model is based on classifying individuals with respect to their status in regards to the progression of the disease, where S is the number individuals who remain susceptible to the disease, E is the number of individuals who have been exposed to the disease but not yet infectious, I is the number of individuals who are currently infectious, and R is the number of recovered individuals. For convenience, we include in our notation the number of infections or transmissions, T, that represents the number of individuals transitioning from compartment S to compartment E over a particular interval. Similarly, we use C to represent the number of reported cases.

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Sandia National Laboratories has developed a capability to estimate parameters of epidemiological models from case reporting data to support responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. A differentiating feature of this work is the ability to simultaneously estimate county-specific disease transmission parameters in a nation-wide model that considers mobility between counties. The approach is focused on estimating parameters in a stochastic SEIR model that considers mobility between model patches (i.e., counties) as well as additional infectious compartments. The inference engine developed by Sandia includes (1) reconstruction and (2) transmission parameter inference. Reconstruction involves estimating current population counts within each of the compartments in a modified SEIR model from reported case data. Reconstruction produces input for the inference formulations, and it provides initial conditions that can be used in other modeling and planning efforts. Inference involves the solution of a large-scale optimization problem to estimate the time profiles for the transmission parameters in each county. These provide quantification of changes in the transmission parameter over time (e.g., due to impact of intervention strategies). This capability has been implemented in a Python-based software package, epi_inference, that makes extensive use of Pyomo [5] and IPOPT [10] to formulate and solve the inference formulations.

Greater utilization of subsurface reservoirs perturbs in-situ chemical-mechanical conditions with wide ranging consequences from decreased performance to project failure. Understanding the chemical precursors to rock deformation is critical to reducing the risks of these activities. To address this need, we investigated the coupled flow-dissolution- precipitation-adsorption reactions involving calcite and environmentally-relevant solid phases. Experimentally, we quantified (1) stable isotope fractionation processes for strontium during calcite nucleation and growth, and during reactive fluid flow; (2) consolidation behavior of calcite assemblages in the common brines. Numerically, we quantified water weakening of calcite using molecular dynamics simulations; and quantified the impact of calcite dissolution rate on macroscopic fracturing using finite element models. With microfluidic experiments and modeling, we show the effect of local flow fields on the dissolution kinetics of calcite. Taken together across a wide range of scales and methods, our studies allow us to separate the effects of reaction, flow, and transport, on calcite fracturing and the evolution of strontium isotopic signatures in the reactive fluids.

This document describes the Cybersecurity Research Development and Demonstration (RD&D) Program, established by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) to provide sciencebased methods and technologies necessary for cost-effective, cyber-secure digital instrumentation, control and communication in collaboration with nuclear energy stakeholders. It provides an overview of program goals, objectives, linkages to organizational strategies, management structure, and stakeholder and cross-program interfaces.

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The development of new hypersonic flight vehicles is limited by the physical understanding that may be obtained from ground test facilities. This has motivated the present development of a temporally and spatially resolved velocimetry measurement for Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Hypersonic Wind Tunnel (HWT) using Femtosecond Laser Electronic Excitation Tagging (FLEET). First, a multi-line FLEET technique has been created for the first time and tested in a supersonic jet, allowing simultaneous measurements of velocities along multiple profiles in a flow. Secondly, two different approaches have been demonstrated for generating dotted FLEET lines. One employs a slit mask pattern focused into points to yield a dotted line, allowing for two- or three-component velocity measurements free of contamination between components. The other dotted-line approach is based upon an optical wedge array and yields a grid of points rather than a dotted line. Two successful FLEET measurement campaigns have been conducted in SNL’s HWT. The first effort established optimal diagnostic configurations in the hypersonic environment based on earlier benchtop reproductions, including validation of the use of a 267 nm beam to boost the measurement signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) with minimal risk of perturbing the flow and greater simplicity than a comparable resonant technique at 202 nm. The same FLEET system subsequently was reconstituted to demonstrate the ability to make velocimetry measurements of hypersonic turbulence in a realistic flow field. Mean velocity profiles and turbulence intensity profiles of the shear layer in the wake of a hypersonic cone model were measured at several different downstream stations, proving the viability of FLEET as a hypersonic diagnostic.

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Our primary aim in this work is to understand how to efficiently obtain reliable uncertainty quantification in automatic learning algorithms with limited training datasets. Standard approaches rely on cross-validation to tune hyper parameters. Unfortunately, when our datasets are too small, holdout datasets become unreliable—albeit unbiased—measures of prediction quality due to the lack of adequate sample size. We should not place confidence in holdout estimators under conditions wherein the sample variance is both large and unknown. More poigniantly, our training experiments on limited data (Duersch and Catanach, 2021) show that even if we could improve estimator quality under these conditions, the typical training trajectory may never even encounter generalizable models.

This report summarizes the findings and outcomes of the LDRD-express project with title “Fluid models of charged species transport: numerical methods with mathematically guaranteed properties”. The primary motivation of this project was the computational/mathematical exploration of the ideas advanced aiming to improve the state-of-the-art on numerical methods for the one-fluid Euler-Poisson models and gain some understanding on the Euler-Maxwell model. Euler-Poisson and Euler-Maxwell, by themselves are not the most technically relevant PDE plasma-models. However, both of them are elementary building blocks of PDE-models used in actual technical applications and include most (if not all) of their mathematical difficulties. Outside the classical ideal MHD models, rigorous mathematical and numerical understanding of one-fluid models is still a quite undeveloped research area, and the treatment/understanding of boundary conditions is minimal (borderline non-existent) at this point in time. This report focuses primarily on bulk-behaviour of Euler-Poisson’s model, touching boundary conditions only tangentially.

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Previous strain development efforts for cyanobacteria have failed to achieve the necessary productivities needed to support economic biofuel production. We proposed to develop CRISPR Engineering for Rapid Enhancement of Strains (CERES). We developed genetic and computational tools to enable future high-throughput screening of CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) libraries in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002, including: (1) Operon- SEQer: an ensemble of algorithms for predicting operon pairs using RNA-seq data, (2) experimental characterization and machine learning prediction of gRNA design rules for CRISPRi, and (3) a shuttle vector for gene expression. These tools lay the foundation for CRISPR library screening to develop cyanobacterial strains that are optimized for growth or metabolite production under a wide range of environmental conditions. The optimization of cyanobacterial strains will directly advance U.S. energy and climate security by enabling domestic biofuel production while simultaneously mitigating atmospheric greenhouse gases through photoautotrophic fixation of carbon dioxide.

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An optimization-based strategy for solving nonlinear mechanics problems is proposed. In contrast to typical nonlinear equation solver algorithms that aim to find zeros in the residual force function, we minimize an energy (or energy-like) function to encourage solutions which are locally stable equilibria. These smooth and potentially non-convex objective functions are minimized using a preconditioned conjugate-gradient trust-region algorithm. Contact is formulated as an inequality constrained minimization problem, and is solved with an augmented Lagrangian algorithm. Friction is included in the approach via a regularized quasi-potential energy, and other dissipative behavior is included through the use of variational constitutive updates. Finally, to accelerate convergence rates for the Lagrange multipliers, we propose a novel multiplier update algorithm utilizing the Fischer-Burmeister function, and demonstrate super-linear solver convergence for some applications.

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Given the prevalent role of metals in a variety of industries, schemes to integrate corresponding constitutive models in finite element applications have long been studied. A number of formulations have been developed to accomplish this task; each with their own advantages and costs. Often the focus has been on ensuring the accuracy and numerical stability of these algorithms to enable robust integration. While important, emphasis on these performance metrics may often come at the cost of computational expense potentially neglecting the needs of individual problems. In the current work, the performance of two of the most common integration methods for anisotropic plasticity -- the convex cutting plane (CCP) and closest point projection (CPP) -- across a variety of metrics is assessed; including accuracy and cost. A variety of problems are considered ranging from single elements to large representative simulations including both implicit quasistatic and explicit transient dynamic type responses. The relative performance of each scheme in the different instances is presented with an eye towards guidance on when the different algorithms may be beneficial.

This project studied the potential for multiscale group dynamics in complex social systems, including emergent recursive interaction. Current social theory on group formation and interaction focuses on a single scale (individuals forming groups) and is largely qualitative in its explanation of mechanisms. We combined theory, modeling, and data analysis to find evidence that these multiscale phenomena exist, and to investigate their potential consequences and develop predictive capabilities. In this report, we discuss the results of data analysis showing that some group dynamics theory holds at multiple scales. We introduce a new theory on communicative vibration that uses social network dynamics to predict group life cycle events. We discuss a model of behavioral responses to the COVID-19 pandemic that incorporates influence and social pressures. Finally, we discuss a set of modeling techniques that can be used to simulate multiscale group phenomena.

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This SAND report documents Exploratory Express LDRD Project 223790, "Structure-preserving numerical discretizations for domains with boundaries", which developed a method to incorporate consistent treatment of domain boundaries and arbitrary boundary conditions in discrete exterior calculus (DEC) for arbitrary polygonal (2D) and tensor-product structure prism (3D) grids. The new DEC required the development of novel discrete exterior derivatives, boundary operators, wedge products and Hodge stars. This was accomplished through the use of boundary extension and the blending of known 2D operators on the interior with 1D operators on the boundary. The Hodge star was based on the Voronoi Hodge star, and retained the limitation of a triangular circumcentric primal or dual grid along with low-order accuracy. In addition to the new DEC, two related software packages were written: one for the study of DEC operators on arbitrary polygonal and polyhedral grids using both symbolic and numerical approaches and one for a (thermal) shallow water testbed using TRiSK-type numerics. Immediately relevant (already funded, through CANGA) followup work is the development of a high-order, geometrically flexible Hodge star and structure-preserving, high-order, oscillation-limiting transport operators (using WENO) for n-forms on arbitrary 2D and 3D grids. This will provide all of the machinery required for a high-order version of TRiSK with boundaries on arbitrary 2D and tensor-product 3D grids, which is applicable to both the atmospheric (CRM in E3SM-MMF) and oceanic (MPAS-O) components of E3SM.

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The June 15, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption is simulated in E3SM by injecting 10 Tg of SO₂ gas in the stratosphere, turning off prescribed volcanic aerosols, and enabling E3SM to treat stratospheric volcanic aerosols prognostically. This experimental prognostic treatment of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere results in some realistic behaviors (SO₂ evolves into H₂SO₄ which heats the lower stratosphere), and some expected biases (H₂SO₄ aerosols sediment out of the stratosphere too quickly). Climate fingerprinting techniques are used to establish a Mt. Pinatubo fingerprint based on the vertical profile of temperature from the E3SMv1 DECK ensemble. By projecting reanalysis data and preindustrial simulations onto the fingerprint, the Mt. Pinatubo stratospheric heating anomaly is detected. Projecting the experimental prognostic aerosol simulation onto the fingerprint also results in a detectable heating anomaly, but, as expected, the duration is too short relative to reanalysis data.

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This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

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Seismic signals from 1993 show a series of magnitude (Mw) 3.7 or less seismic events in Rock Valley on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Historic synthetic aperture radar images of that location were found that could provide interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measures of the ground height during 1993. Given this historic SAR imagery, we explore answering the question if ground movement from the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake activity could be sensed by remote sensing means. Finding earthquake surface movement would assist in locating the Rock Valley fault and the 1993 earthquake hypocenter where the Source Physics Experiment Phase III series of experiments will be conducted. In this report, we show that InSAR can sense very small height differences, and for the European Radar Satellite-1 InSAR collections during 1992 and 1993 over Rock Valley earth surface movements were measured with 8 mm uplift and 12.5 mm subsidence over isolated areas. One of these earth movement areas coincides with an InSAR image pair coherence drop between March 5, 1993 and June 18, 1993. The coherence drop is over an approximately 13 square km area south southeast of Skull Mountain centered at 36° 43' 30" N latitude and 116° 05' 00" W longitude. Measured small surface movement and a loss of InSAR coherence may be caused by the series of earthquakes. The location of these InSAR detections may also coincide with water drainage or erosion displacement. There are no records to disambiguate the earthquake and erosion earth surface motion possibilities. Therefore, the InSAR findings of earth surface movement by InSAR are inconclusive.

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This final report summarizes the work completed under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project “Seismic Spatial Gradients as a Machine Learning-Based Classifier for Explosion Monitoring.” The overarching goal of the project was to explore the efficacy of using machine learning-based classification algorithms where the input data are the spatial gradient of the seismic wavefield collected at a single point on the Earth’s surface. The methods that I describe here are in direct contrast to conventional methods of seismic discrimination which typically rely on a spatially extended network of instruments and physics-based wavefield attributes such as, for example, the ratio between $\textit{P}$ and $\textit{S}$ waves. Rather, we use the spatial gradient of the seismic wavefield observed at a single point on the Earth’s surface and data processing approaches inspired by the machine learning community. We tested two algorithms, a neural network and a modified version of principal component analysis termed Spectrally Filtered Principal Component Analysis (SFPCA). To test these algorithms, we first conducted a series of numerical tests using synthetic data and then conducted a small-scale controlled field experiment. The tests using synthetic data showed that both algorithms had high success rates on gradiometric data, even when simulated noise was added to the signal. Furthermore, we found that using seismic spatial gradients increased the performance of our discrimination algorithms when compared to using just the traditional translational motion seismic data. The tests with field data also showed a high degree of discriminative success.

To date, disinformation research has focused largely on the production of false information ignoring the suppression of select information. We term this alternative form of disinformation information suppression. Information suppression occurs when facts are withheld with the intent to mislead. In order to detect information suppression, we focus on understanding the actors who withhold information. In this research, we use knowledge of human behavior to find signatures of different gatekeeping behaviors found in text. Specifically, we build a model to classify the different types of edits on Wikipedia using the added text alone and compare a human-informed feature engineering approach to a featureless algorithm. Being able to computationally distinguish gatekeeping behaviors is a first step towards identifying when information suppression is occurring.

Due to their recent increases in performance, machine learning and deep learning models are being increasingly adopted across many domains for visual processing tasks. One such domain is international nuclear safeguards, which seeks to verify the peaceful use of commercial nuclear energy across the globe. Despite recent impressive performance results from machine learning and deep learning algorithms, there is always at least some small level of error. Given the significant consequences of international nuclear safeguards conclusions, we sought to characterize how incorrect responses from a machine or deep learning-assisted visual search task would cognitively impact users. We found that not only do some types of model errors have larger negative impacts on human performance than other errors, the scale of those impacts change depending on the accuracy of the model with which they are presented and they persist in scenarios of evenly distributed errors and single-error presentations. Further, we found that experiments conducted using a common visual search dataset from the psychology community has similar implications to a safeguards- relevant dataset of images containing hyperboloid cooling towers when the cooling tower images are presented to expert participants. While novice performance was considerably different (and worse) on the cooling tower task, we saw increased novice reliance on the most challenging cooling tower images compared to experts. These findings are relevant not just to the cognitive science community, but also for developers of machine and deep learning that will be implemented in multiple domains. For safeguards, this research provides key insights into how machine and deep learning projects should be implemented considering their special requirements that information not be missed.

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The predictive understanding of catalytic surface reactions requires accurate microkinetic models, and while decades of work has been devoted to the elucidation of the reaction steps in these models, many open questions remain. One key issue is a lack of approaches enabling the local spatially resolved assessment of catalytic activity over a surface. In this report, we detail efforts to develop a new diagnostic approach to solve this problem. The approach is based upon laser resonance enhanced multiphoton ionization of reaction products emitted into the gas phase followed by spatially resolved imaging of the resultant ions or electrons. Ion imaging is pursued with a velocity-selected spatially resolved ion imaging microscope, while electron imaging was attempted in a low energy electron microscope. Successful demonstration of the ion imaging microscope coupled with the development of transport simulations shows promise for a revolutionary new tool to assess local catalytic activity

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In 2006, the United States Congress mandated for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to screen all cargo containers to protect against terrorist acts and ensure the safety and security of the nation. Containers are screened by gamma and neutron detectors to ensure threat material is not smuggled into the country. However, because commerce is radioactive, detecting the presence of radioactive materials is not sufficient in ensuring the safety and security of the nation. Radioactive materials must also be identified in real time, thus distinguishing threat sources (Uranium-235 and Plutonium-230) from non-threat sources (kitty litter, pot ash, medical isotopes). Screening cargo containers can be considered a two-step process (1) alerting to the presence of radioactive material when gamma counts exceed a threshold setting, and (2) once alerted, identifying the type of radioactive material, which is done by collecting a gamma spectra and analyzing it with an analysis tool/algorithm. For this reason, it is important to evaluate not only emerging technology in neutron and gamma detection, but also investigate new advances in algorithm development for radioisotope identification (RIID). New candidates in detection and on-board algorithm analysis might offer opportunities to make the scanning, detection, and identification process more efficient while still ensuring the health and safety of the public. This research will investigate emerging technology in radiation detection focused on gamma spectroscopy capabilities and RIID algorithms for DHS applications.

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This report describes a Late-Start LDRD project on a self-healing power systems (SHePS) concept called SHAZAM. SHAZAM is designed to solve difficult challenges associated with creation of self-assembling, self-networking microgrids without high-speed networked communications. The report describes the SHAZAM concept, outlines the development of modeling tools and infrastructure supported by the Late-Start LDRD, gives examples of simulation results obtained to date, and discusses conclusions and proposed future work.

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There are now over 2.5 million Distributed Energy Resource (DER) installations connected to the U.S. power system. These installations represent a major portion of American electricity critical infrastructure and a cyberattack on these assets in aggregate would significantly affect grid operations. Virtualized Operational Technology (OT) equipment has been shown to provide practitioners with situational awareness and better understanding of adversary tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Deploying synthetic DER devices as honeypots and canaries would open new avenues of operational defense, threat intelligence gathering, and empower DER owners and operators with new cyber-defense mechanisms against the growing intensity and sophistication of cyberattacks on OT systems. Well-designed DER canary field deployments would deceive adversaries and provide early-warning notifications of adversary presence and malicious activities on OT networks. In this report, we present progress to design a high-fidelity DER honeypot/canary prototype in a late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project.

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Understanding the fundamental mechanisms underpinning shock initiation is critical to predicting energetic material (EM) safety and performance. Currently, the timescales and pathways by which shock-excited lattice modes transfer energy into specific chemical bonds remains an open question. Towards understanding these mechanisms, our group has previously measured the vibrational energy transfer (VET) pathways in several energetic thin films using broadband, femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy. However, new technologies are needed to move beyond these thin film surrogates and measure broadband VET pathways in realistic EM morphologies. Herein, we describe a new broadband, femtosecond, attenuated total reflectance spectroscopy apparatus. Performance of the system is benchmarked against published data and the first VET results from a pressed EM pellet are presented. This technology enables fundamental studies of VET dynamics across sample configurations and environments (pressure, temperature, etc .) and supports the potential use of VET studies in the non-destructive surveillance of EM components.

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