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Numerical and Visual Representations of Uncertainty Lead to Different Patterns of Decision Making

IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications

Matzen, Laura E.; Howell, Breannan C.; Trumbo, Michael C.S.; Divis, Kristin M.

Although visualizations are a useful tool for helping people to understand information, they can also have unintended effects on human cognition. This is especially true for uncertain information, which is difficult for people to understand. Prior work has found that different methods of visualizing uncertain information can produce different patterns of decision making from users. However, uncertainty can also be represented via text or numerical information, and few studies have systematically compared these types of representations to visualizations of uncertainty. We present two experiments that compared visual representations of risk (icon arrays) to numerical representations (natural frequencies) in a wildfire evacuation task. Like prior studies, we found that different types of visual cues led to different patterns of decision making. In addition, our comparison of visual and numerical representations of risk found that people were more likely to evacuate when they saw visualizations than when they saw numerical representations. These experiments reinforce the idea that design choices are not neutral: seemingly minor differences in how information is represented can have important impacts on human risk perception and decision making.

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Activity Theory Literature Review

Greenwald-Yarnell, Megan L.; Divis, Kristin M.; Fleming, Elizabeth S.; Heiden, Siobhan M.; Nyre-Yu, Megan; Odom, Peter W.; Pang, Michelle A.; Salmon, Madison M.; Silva, Austin R.

Complex challenges across Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) mission areas underscore the need for systems level thinking, resulting in a better understanding of the organizational work systems and environments in which our hardware and software will be used. SNL researchers have successfully used Activity Theory (AT) as a framework to clarify work systems, informing product design, delivery, acceptance, and use. To increase familiarity with AT, a working group assembled to select key resources on the topic and generate an annotated bibliography. The resources in this bibliography are arranged in six categories: 1) An introduction to AT; 2) Advanced readings in AT; 3) AT and human computer interaction (HCI); 4) Methodological resources for practitioners; 5) Case studies; and 6) Related frameworks that have been used to study work systems. This annotated bibliography is expected to improve the reader's understanding of AT and enable more efficient and effective application of it.

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The Cognitive Effects of Machine Learning Aid in Domain-Specific and Domain-General Tasks

Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences

Divis, Kristin M.; Howell, Breannan C.; Matzen, Laura E.; Stites, Mallory C.; Gastelum, Zoe N.

With machine learning (ML) technologies rapidly expanding to new applications and domains, users are collaborating with artificial intelligence-assisted diagnostic tools to a larger and larger extent. But what impact does ML aid have on cognitive performance, especially when the ML output is not always accurate? Here, we examined the cognitive effects of the presence of simulated ML assistance-including both accurate and inaccurate output-on two tasks (a domain-specific nuclear safeguards task and domain-general visual search task). Patterns of performance varied across the two tasks for both the presence of ML aid as well as the category of ML feedback (e.g., false alarm). These results indicate that differences such as domain could influence users' performance with ML aid, and suggest the need to test the effects of ML output (and associated errors) in the specific context of use, especially when the stimuli of interest are vague or ill-defined.

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Assessing Cognitive Impacts of Errors from Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models: Final Report

Gastelum, Zoe N.; Matzen, Laura E.; Stites, Mallory C.; Divis, Kristin M.; Howell, Breannan C.; Jones, Aaron; Trumbo, Michael C.S.

Due to their recent increases in performance, machine learning and deep learning models are being increasingly adopted across many domains for visual processing tasks. One such domain is international nuclear safeguards, which seeks to verify the peaceful use of commercial nuclear energy across the globe. Despite recent impressive performance results from machine learning and deep learning algorithms, there is always at least some small level of error. Given the significant consequences of international nuclear safeguards conclusions, we sought to characterize how incorrect responses from a machine or deep learning-assisted visual search task would cognitively impact users. We found that not only do some types of model errors have larger negative impacts on human performance than other errors, the scale of those impacts change depending on the accuracy of the model with which they are presented and they persist in scenarios of evenly distributed errors and single-error presentations. Further, we found that experiments conducted using a common visual search dataset from the psychology community has similar implications to a safeguards- relevant dataset of images containing hyperboloid cooling towers when the cooling tower images are presented to expert participants. While novice performance was considerably different (and worse) on the cooling tower task, we saw increased novice reliance on the most challenging cooling tower images compared to experts. These findings are relevant not just to the cognitive science community, but also for developers of machine and deep learning that will be implemented in multiple domains. For safeguards, this research provides key insights into how machine and deep learning projects should be implemented considering their special requirements that information not be missed.

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Evaluating the Impact of Algorithm Confidence Ratings on Human Decision Making in Visual Search

Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)

Jones, Aaron; Trumbo, Michael C.S.; Matzen, Laura E.; Stites, Mallory C.; Howell, Breannan C.; Divis, Kristin M.; Gastelum, Zoe N.

As the ability to collect and store data grows, so does the need to efficiently analyze that data. As human-machine teams that use machine learning (ML) algorithms as a way to inform human decision-making grow in popularity it becomes increasingly critical to understand the optimal methods of implementing algorithm assisted search. In order to better understand how algorithm confidence values associated with object identification can influence participant accuracy and response times during a visual search task, we compared models that provided appropriate confidence, random confidence, and no confidence, as well as a model biased toward over confidence and a model biased toward under confidence. Results indicate that randomized confidence is likely harmful to performance while non-random confidence values are likely better than no confidence value for maintaining accuracy over time. Providing participants with appropriate confidence values did not seem to benefit performance any more than providing participants with under or over confident models.

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Results 1–25 of 65
Results 1–25 of 65
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