Publications

Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics

This study presents the development of a computational framework designed to predict the interaction between permafrost and infrastructure, addressing potential failure modes and mitigation strategies in the context of climate change. The framework, rooted in advanced modeling and simulation (mod/sim) techniques, integrates thermomechanical coupling to account for the complex interplay between heat flow, ice content, and mechanical behavior in permafrost. Existing models fail to fully capture these dynamics, particularly as they relate to the effects of ice saturation on structural integrity. Our innovative Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) framework fills this gap by coupling thermal and mechanical models to accurately simulate subsidence and deformation in permafrost environments. We applied the ACE framework to a representative runway, demonstrating its capability to predict settlement due to rising temperatures and subsequent permafrost thaw. This proof-of-concept showcases the potential of the framework to evaluate risks to Arctic infrastructure, which supports over four million people and 70% of existing permafrost-based structures. By simulating various infrastructure types and environmental conditions, our research offers insights into failure mechanisms and evaluates structural solutions to mitigate risk. The anticipated deliverables, including a prototype runway exemplar, position this project as a critical advancement in permafrost infrastructure modeling, with applications in national security and resilience planning.

presentation for MORe 2024

presentation for MORe 2024

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

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Accurate simulation of the evolution of polar ice-sheets requires a massive amount of computational power. In order to take advantage of the newest generation of supercomputing clusters, the Albany Land Ice code has been modernized for performance portability across a variety of parallel architectures, with a focus on enabling end-to-end GPU capability. Albany uses a multigrid preconditioning approach for solving linear systems via performance portable smoothers from the Trilinos package Ifpack2. Since the Albany Land Ice code is constantly evolving and both Albany and Trilinos are in constant development, it is likely that the optimal choice of solver parameters will change over time. It is therefore critical to have an automatic performance tuning framework to ensure that the best possible performance is maintained. Toward this effect, we have developed an automatic performance tuning framework to determine the best fine- and coarse-grid smoothing algorithms and parameters. We treat the underlying performance model of the linear solve as a black box and use the python-based GPTune Bayesian optimization library to determine the optimal smoother choice and parameters. Using this approach, we have found smoothers and their corresponding parameters that result in, on average, 1.2 times faster, and up to 1.5 times faster solve-times than our manually-tuned parameters. We also show that the proposed auto-tuning approach produces reliably better parameters than naive black box optimization techniques like random search for a given function evaluation budget. By implementing our tuning framework in the Python-based workflow management tool parsl, we also ensure that we efficiently use available computing resources during the tuning process and avoid unnecessary long wait times in computing cluster job queues.

Here, a method for the nonintrusive and structure-preserving model reduction of canonical and noncanonical Hamiltonian systems is presented. Based on the idea of operator inference, this technique is provably convergent and reduces to a straightforward linear solve given snapshot data and gray-box knowledge of the system Hamiltonian. Examples involving several hyperbolic partial differential equations show that the proposed method yields reduced models which, in addition to being accurate and stable with respect to the addition of basis modes, preserve conserved quantities well outside the range of their training data.

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ALEGRA is a multiphysics finite-element shock hydrodynamics code, under development at Sandia National Laboratories since 1990. Fully coupled multiphysics capabilities include transient magnetics, magnetohydrodynamics, electromechanics, and radiation transport. Importantly, ALEGRA is used to study hypervelocity impact, pulsed power devices, and radiation effects. The breadth of physics represented in ALEGRA is outlined here, along with simulated results for a selected hypervelocity impact experiment.

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