Publications

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In this paper, we design efficient quadrature rules for finite element (FE) discretizations of nonlocal diffusion problems with compactly supported kernel functions. Two of the main challenges in nonlocal modeling and simulations are the prohibitive computational cost and the nontrivial implementation of discretization schemes, especially in three-dimensional settings. In this work, we circumvent both challenges by introducing a parametrized mollifying function that improves the regularity of the integrand, utilizing an adaptive integration technique, and exploiting parallelization. We first show that the “mollified” solution converges to the exact one as the mollifying parameter vanishes, then we illustrate the consistency and accuracy of the proposed method on several two- and three-dimensional test cases. Furthermore, we demonstrate the good scaling properties of the parallel implementation of the adaptive algorithm and we compare the proposed method with recently developed techniques for efficient FE assembly.

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A collection of x-ray computed tomography scans of candy.

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While the use of machine learning (ML) classifiers is widespread, their output is often not part of any follow-on decision-making process. To illustrate, consider the scenario where we have developed and trained an ML classifier to find malicious URL links. In this scenario, network administrators must decide whether to allow a computer user to visit a particular website, or to instead block access because the site is deemed malicious. It would be very beneficial if decisions such as these could be made automatically using a trained ML classifier. Unfortunately, due to a variety of reasons discussed herein, the output from these classifiers can be uncertain, rendering downstream decisions difficult. Herein, we provide a framework for: (1) quantifying and propagating uncertainty in ML classifiers; (2) formally linking ML outputs with the decision-making process; and (3) making optimal decisions for classification under uncertainty with single or multiple objectives.

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Underground explosions can produce infrasound in the atmosphere, and the wavefield characteristics are often governed by the ground surface motions. Finite-difference methods are popular for infrasound simulation as their generality and robustness allow for complex atmospheric structures and surface topography. A simple point-source approximation is often used because infrasound wavelengths tend to be large relative to the source dimensions. However, this assumption may not be able to capture the complexity of explosion-induced ground motions if the surface area is not compact, and appropriate source models must be incorporated into the finite-difference simulations for accurate infrasound prediction. In this study, we develop a point source representation of the complex ground motions for infrasound sources. Instead of a single point source, we use a series of point sources distributed over the source area. These distributed point sources can be equivalent to air volume changes produced by the ground motions in the atmosphere. We apply the distributed point-source method to a series of buried chemical explosions conducted during the Source Physics Experiment Phase I. Epicentral ground-motion measurements during the experiments provide a way to calculate accurate distributed point sources. We validate and evaluate the accuracy of distributed point source approach for infrasound simulations by direct comparison with acoustic observations in the field experiment.

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A collection of x-ray computed tomography scans of candy.

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Accurate representation of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Earth System Model (ESM) land models could reduce uncertainties in future carbon–climate feedback projections. Using empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks to evaluate land models can help modelers understand prediction biases beyond what can be achieved with the observed SOC stocks alone. In this study, we used 31 observed environmental factors, field SOC observations (n = 6,213) from the continental United States, and two machine learning approaches (random forest [RF] and generalized additive modeling [GAM]) to (a) select important environmental predictors of SOC stocks, (b) derive empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks, and (c) use the derived relationships to predict SOC stocks and compare the prediction accuracy of simpler model developed with the machine learning predictions. Out of the 31 environmental factors we investigated, 12 were identified as important predictors of SOC stocks by the RF approach. In contrast, the GAM approach identified six (of those 12) environmental factors as important controllers of SOC stocks: potential evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index, soil drainage condition, precipitation, elevation, and net primary productivity. The GAM approach showed minimal SOC predictive importance of the remaining six environmental factors identified by the RF approach. Our derived empirical relations produced comparable prediction accuracy to the GAM and RF approach using only a subset of environmental factors. The empirical relationships we derived using the GAM approach can serve as important benchmarks to evaluate environmental control representations of SOC stocks in ESMs, which could reduce uncertainty in predicting future carbon–climate feedbacks.

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A mathematical framework is provided for a substructuring-based domain decomposition (DD) approach for nonlocal problems that features interactions between points separated by a finite distance. Here, by substructuring it is meant that a traditional geometric configuration for local partial differential equation (PDE) problems is used in which a computational domain is subdivided into non-overlapping subdomains. In the nonlocal setting, this approach is substructuring-based in the sense that those subdomains interact with neighboring domains over interface regions having finite volume, in contrast to the local PDE setting in which interfaces are lower dimensional manifolds separating abutting subdomains. Key results include the equivalence between the global, single-domain nonlocal problem and its multi-domain reformulation, both at the continuous and discrete levels. These results provide the rigorous foundation necessary for the development of efficient solution strategies for nonlocal DD methods.

Argon is the most abundant noble gas on Earth and its noble, atomic fluid nature makes it an excellent candidate for comparison of experiment and theory at extreme conditions. We performed a combined computational and experimental study on shock compressed cryogenic liquid argon. Using Sandia's Z machine, we shock compressed liquid argon to 600 GPa and reshock states up to 950 GPa. Laser shock experiments at the Omega Laser facility extend the principal Hugoniot to 1000 GPa and provided temperature data along the principal Hugoniot. The plate impact experiments and laser shock experiments used well-characterized impedance matching standards and demonstrate consistent results between the two platforms over a common range. Density functional theory based molecular dynamics simulations provided additional data on the Hugoniot to 600 GPa. The combined experimental data and simulation results provide constraints on the development of new equation of state models at extreme conditions.

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Electric Vehicles (EV) present a unique challenge to electric power system (EPS) operations because of the potential magnitude and timing of load increases due to EV charging. Time-of-Use (TOU) electricity pricing is an established way to reduce peak system loads. It is effective at shifting the timing of some customer-activated residential loads – such as dishwashers, washing machines, or HVAC systems – to off-peak periods. EV charging, though, can be larger than typical residential loads (up to 19.2 kW) and may have on-board controls that automatically begin charging according to a pre-set schedule, such as when off-peak periods begin. To understand and quantify the potential impact of EV charging's response to TOU pricing, this paper simulates 10 distribution feeders with predicted 2030 EV adoption levels. The simulation results show that distribution EPS experience an increase in peak demand as high as 20% when a majority of the charging begins immediately after on-peak times end, as might occur if EV charging is automatically scheduled. However, if charging start times are randomized within the off-peak period, EV charging is spread out and the simulations showed a decrease in the peak load to be 5% lower than results from simulations that did not implement TOU rates.

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The goal of the project was to protect US critical infrastructure and improve energy security through technical analysis of the risk landscape presented by the anticipated massive deployment of interoperable EV chargers.

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Complex challenges across Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) mission areas underscore the need for systems level thinking, resulting in a better understanding of the organizational work systems and environments in which our hardware and software will be used. SNL researchers have successfully used Activity Theory (AT) as a framework to clarify work systems, informing product design, delivery, acceptance, and use. To increase familiarity with AT, a working group assembled to select key resources on the topic and generate an annotated bibliography. The resources in this bibliography are arranged in six categories: 1) An introduction to AT; 2) Advanced readings in AT; 3) AT and human computer interaction (HCI); 4) Methodological resources for practitioners; 5) Case studies; and 6) Related frameworks that have been used to study work systems. This annotated bibliography is expected to improve the reader's understanding of AT and enable more efficient and effective application of it.

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This manual describes the installation and use of the Xyce™ XDM Netlist Translator. XDM simplifies the translation of netlists generated by commercial circuit simulator tools into Xyce-compatible netlists. XDM currently supports translation from PSpice, HSPICE, and Spectre netlists into Xyce™ netlists.

Members of the Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) Program at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) have updated the suite of benchmark problems developed to validate MCNP6 Version 2.0 for use in NCS applications. The updated NCS benchmark suite adds approximately 600 new benchmarks and includes peer review of all input files by two different NCS engineers (or one NCS engineer and one candidate NCS engineer). As with the originally released benchmark suite, the updated suite covers a broad range of fissile material types, material forms, moderators, reflectors, and neutron energy spectra. The benchmark suite provides a basis to establish a bias and bias uncertainty for use in NCS analyses at SNL.

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The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

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Grid operating security studies are typically employed to establish operating boundaries, ensuring secure and stable operation for a range of operation under NERC guidelines. However, if these boundaries are severely violated, existing system security margins will be largely unknown, as would be a secure incremental dispatch path to higher security margins while continuing to serve load. As an alternative to the use of complex optimizations over dynamic conditions, this work employs the use of machine learning to identify a sequence of secure state transitions which place the grid in a higher degree of operating security with greater static and dynamic stability margins. Several reinforcement learning solution methods were developed using deep learning neural networks, including Deep Q-learning, Mu-Zero, and the continuous algorithms Proximal Reinforcement Learning, and Advantage Actor Critic Learning. The work is demonstrated on a power grid with three control dimensions but can be scaled in size and dimensionality, which is the subject of ongoing research.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model's input parameters. We develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model's response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

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Members of the Workforce (MOW) who are exposed to noise levels above 140 dBC, regardless of hearing protection worn, are required to be enrolled into the SNL Hearing Conservation Program which includes audiometric testing, online training (HCP100) and wearing hearing protection. Based on the area impact noise sample results, the attenuation provided by the MFCP was protective for mitigating noise to levels below the ACGIH TLV of 140 dBC. The results also validated the scaled distance equation in an open-air environment as the results at K635 (864 feet) were below 140 dBC.

The wide variety of inverter control settings for solar photovoltaics (PV) causes the accurate knowledge of these settings to be difficult to obtain in practice. This paper addresses the problem of determining inverter reactive power control settings from net load advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. The estimation is first cast as fitting parameterized control curves. We argue for an intuitive and practical approach to preprocess the AMI data, which exposes the setting to be extracted. We then develop a more general approach with a data-driven reactive power disaggregation algorithm, reframing the problem as a maximum likelihood estimation for the native load reactive power. These methods form the first approach for reconstructing reactive power control settings of solar PV inverters from net load data. The constrained curve fitting algorithm is tested on 701 loads with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV systems with identical control settings. The settings are accurately reconstructed with mean absolute percentage errors between 0.425% and 2.870%. The disaggregation-based approach is then tested on 451 loads with variable BTM PV control settings. Different configurations of this algorithm reconstruct the PV inverter reactive power timeseries with root mean squared errors between 0.173 and 0.198 kVAR.

Single particle aerosol mass spectrometry (SPAMS), an analytical technique for measuring the size and composition of individual micron-scale particles, is capable of analyzing atmospheric pollutants and bioaerosols much more efficiently and with more detail than conventional methods which require the collection of particles onto filters for analysis in the laboratory. Despite SPAMS’ demonstrated capabilities, the primary mechanisms of ionization are not fully understood, which creates challenges in optimizing and interpreting SPAMS signals. In this paper, we present a well-stirred reactor model for the reactions involved with the laser-induced vaporization and ionization of an individual particle. The SPAMS conditions modeled in this paper include a 248 nm laser which is pulsed for 8 ns to vaporize and ionize each particle in vacuum. The ionization of 1 μm, spherical Al particles was studied by approximating them with a 0-dimensional plasma chemistry model. The primary mechanism of absorption of the 248 nm photons was pressure-broadened direct photoexcitation to Al(y2D). Atoms in this highly excited state then undergo superelastic collisions with electrons, heating the electrons and populating the lower energy excited states. We found that the primary ionization mechanism is electron impact ionization of various excited state Al atoms, especially Al(y2D). Because the gas expands rapidly into vacuum, its temperature decreases rapidly. The rate of three-body recombination (e− + e− + Al+ → Al + e−) increases at low temperature, and most of the electrons and ions produced recombine within several μs of the laser pulse. The importance of the direct photoexcitation indicates that the relative peak heights of different elements in SPAMS mass spectra may be sensitive to the available photoexcitation transitions. The effects of laser intensity, particle diameter, and expansion dynamics are also discussed.

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A collection of x-ray computed tomography scans of candy.

The use of simple models for response prediction of building structures is preferred in earthquake engineering for risk evaluations at regional scales, as they make computational studies more feasible. The primary impediment in their gainful use presently is the lack of viable methods for quantifying (and reducing upon) the modeling errors/uncertainties they bear. This study presents a Bayesian calibration method wherein the modeling error is embedded into the parameters of the model. The method is specifically described for coupled shear-flexural beam models here, but it can be applied to any parametric surrogate model. The major benefit the method offers is the ability to consider the modeling uncertainty in the forward prediction of any degree-of-freedom or composite response regardless of the data used in calibration. The method is extensively verified using two synthetic examples. In the first example, the beam model is calibrated to represent a similar beam model but with enforced modeling errors. In the second example, the beam model is used to represent the detailed finite element model of a 52-story building. Both examples show the capability of the proposed solution to provide realistic uncertainty estimation around the mean prediction.

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One detonation test was monitored for impulse noise at Thunder Range on November 6, 2020. The TNT equivalency for this shot was 100 lbs. Ground zero for this test was located at an open area of Range 7. The Armag, where MOW were remotely located, was just south of the east end of the TR shock tube The purpose of this sampling event was to characterize the noise attenuation provided by the Armag which will be used as the primary firing location in a future test series. To determine attenuation provided by the Armag, one sound level monitor was placed inside and a second monitor was placed outside the hardened structure at the same distance from ground zero. The Armag was located 1300 feet from ground zero. Essential personnel performing these tests were remotely located inside the Armag and wore hearing protection with a minimum NRR of 23. Members of the Workforce (MOW) who are exposed to noise levels above 140 dBC, regardless of hearing protection worn, are required to be enrolled into the SNL Hearing Conservation Program which includes audiometric testing, online training (HCP100) and wearing hearing protection.

This document contains the design and operation principles for the wind turbine emulator (WTE) located in the Distributed Energy Technologies Laboratory (DETL) at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia). The wind turbine emulator is a power hardware -in-the-loop (PHIL) representation of the research wind turbines located in Lubbock, Texas at the Sandia Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility. This document describes installation and commissioning steps, and it provides references to component manuals and specifications.

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This report examines the localization of high frequency electromagnetic fields in general three-dimensional cavities along periodic paths between opposing sides of the cavity. The focus is on the case where the mirrors at the ends of the orbit are concave and have two different radii of curvature. The cases where these orbits lead to unstable localized modes are known as scars. The ellipsoidal coordinate system is utilized in the construction of the scarred modes. The field at the interior foci is examined as well as trigonometric projections along the periodic scarred ray path.

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The Sandia National Laboratories site sustainability plan and its associated DOE Sustainability Dashboard data entries encompass Sandia National Laboratories contributions toward meeting the DOE sustainability goals. This site sustainability plan fulfills the contractual requirement for National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, the management and operating contractor for Sandia National Laboratories, to deliver an annual sustainability plan to the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration Sandia Field Office.

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The recent discovery of bright, room-temperature, single photon emitters in GaN leads to an appealing alternative to diamond best single photon emitters given the widespread use and technological maturity of III-nitrides for optoelectronics (e.g. blue LEDs, lasers) and high-speed, high-power electronics. This discovery opens the door to on-chip and on-demand single photon sources integrated with detectors and electronics. Currently, little is known about the underlying defect structure nor is there a sense of how such an emitter might be controllably created. A detailed understanding of the origin of the SPEs in GaN and a path to deterministically introduce them is required. In this project, we develop new experimental capabilities to then investigate single photon emission from GaN nanowires and both GAN and AlN wafers. We ion implant our wafers with the ion implanted with our focused ion beam nanoimplantation capabilities at Sandia, to go beyond typical broad beam implantation and create single photon emitting defects with nanometer precision. We've created light emitting sources using Li⁺ and He⁺, but single photon emission has yet to be demonstrated. In parallel, we calculate the energy levels of defects and transition metal substitutions in GaN to gain a better understanding of the sources of single photon emission in GaN and AlN. The combined experimental and theoretical capabilities developed throughout this project will enable further investigation into the origins of single photon emission from defects in GaN, AlN, and other wide bandgap semiconductors.

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Cyber security has been difficult to quantify from the perspective of defenders. The effort to develop a cyber-attack with some ability, function, or consequence has not been rigorously investigated in Operational Technologies. This specification defines a testing structure that allows conformal and repeatable cyber testing on equipment. The purpose of the ETE is to provide data necessary to analyze and reconstruct cyber-attack timelines, effects, and observables for training and development of Cyber Security Operation Centers. Standardizing the manner in which cyber security on equipment is investigated will allow a greater understanding of the progression of cyber attacks and potential mitigation and detection strategies in a scientifically rigorous fashion.

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We present a proof-of-concept demonstration of a narrow linewidth $^{87}$Rb magneto-optical trap (MOT) operating on the narrow linewidth $5S_{1/2}$ → $6P_{3/2}$ transition at 420 nm. We stabilized the absolute frequency of the 420 nm laser to an atomic transition in $^{87}$Rb and demonstrate a MOT using 420 nm light driving the $5S_{1/2}$, $F = 2$ → $6P_{3/2}, F' = 3$ transition. We then use tome-of-flight measurements to characterize the 420 nm MOT temperature, observing a minimum temperature of about $T^{(420)}_{horizontal}$ = 150μK and $T^{(420)}_{vertical}$ = 250μK before the opportunity to perform significant characterization and optimization. Although this temperature is significantly higher then the expected 420 nm Doppler cooling limit ($T_D^{(420)}$ ≈ 34 μK), these are already approaching the Doppler limit of a standard 780 nm MOT ($T_D^{(780)}$ ≈ 146 μK). We believe that with further optimization the Doppler cooling limit of ≈ 34 μK can be achieved. This initial result answers our key research question and demonstrates the viability of applying narrow linewidth laser cooling as a robust technique for future fieldable quantum sensors.

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Barium titanate (BTO) is a ferroelectric material used in capacitors because of its high bulk dielectric constant. However, the impact of the size of BTO on its dielectric constant is not yet fully understood and is highly contested. Here, we present an investigation into the dielectric constant of BTO nanoparticles with diameters ranging between 50 and 500 nm. BTO nanoparticles were incorporated into acrylonitrile butadiene styrene and injection molded into parallel plate capacitors, which were used to determine nanocomposite dielectric constants. The dielectric constants of BTO nanoparticles were obtained by combining experimental measurements with computational results from COMSOL simulations of ABS-matrix nanocomposites containing BTO. The dielectric constant of BTO was observed to be relatively constant at nanoparticle diameters as small as 200 nm but sharply declined at smaller nanoparticle sizes. These results will be useful in the development of improved energy storage and power conditioning systems utilizing BTO nanoparticles.

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Elastomeric rubbers serve a vital role as sealing materials in the hydrogen storage and transport infrastructure. With applications including O-rings and hose-liners, these components are exposed to pressurized hydrogen at a range of temperatures, cycling rates, and pressure extremes. Cyclic (de)pressurization is known to degrade these materials through the process of cavitation. This readily visible failure mode occurs as a fracture or rupture of the material and is due to the oversaturated gas localizing to form gas bubbles. Computational modeling in the Hydrogen Materials Compatibility Program (H-Mat), co-led by Sandia National Laboratories and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, employs multi-scale simulation efforts to build a predictive understanding of hydrogen-induced damage in materials. Modeling efforts within the project aim to provide insight into how to formulate materials that are less sensitive to high-pressure hydrogen-induced failure. In this document, we summarize results from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, which make predictive assessments of the effects of compositional variations in the commonly used elastomer, ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM).

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Metal hydride hydrogen compression utilizes a reversible heat-driven interaction of a hydride-forming metal alloy with hydrogen gas. This paper reports on the development of a laboratory scale two-stage Metal Hydride Compressor (MHC) system with a feed pressure of 150 bar delivering high purity H2 gas at outlet pressures up to 875 bar. Stage 1 and stage 2 AB₂ metal hydrides are identified based on experimental characterization of the pressure-composition-temperature (PCT) behavior of candidate materials. The selected metal hydrides are each combined with expanded natural graphite, increasing the thermal conductivity of the composites by an order of magnitude. These composites are integrated in two compressor beds with internal heat exchangers that alternate between hydrogenation and dehydrogenation cycles by thermally cycling between 20 °C and 150 °C. The prototype compressor achieved compression of hydrogen from 150 bar to 700 bar with an average flow rate of 33.6 g/hr.

This work presents the development of a multistaged stabilized continuation for the three-dimensional unpowered hypersonic trajectory planning problem using indirect optimal control methods. The stabilized continuation method is noniterative and guaranteed to terminate within a finite number of floating point operations, thereby making it well suited for onboard autonomous implementations. We present a multistage formulation of the stabilized continuation scheme that involves starting with a “loose” integration tolerance during the first stage and ramping up toward a “strict” integration tolerance through subsequent stages. An important benefit of this approach is that even when the solution to the underlying optimal control problem is numerically unstable, such as with the hypersonic vehicle footprint generation problem, the stabilized continuation algorithm is shown to be successful in finding a solution while providing some additional insights into the underlying cause of the numerical instability.

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This manual describes the use of the Xyce™ Parallel Electronic Simulator. Xyce™ has been designed as a SPICE-compatible, high-performance analog circuit simulator, and has been written to support the simulation needs of the Sandia National Laboratories electrical designers. This development has focused on improving capability over the current state-of-the-art in the following areas: (1) Capability to solve extremely large circuit problems by supporting large-scale parallel computing platforms (up to thousands of processors). This includes support for most popular parallel and serial computers. (2) A differential-algebraic-equation (DAE) formulation, which better isolates the device model package from solver algorithms. This allows one to develop new types of analysis without requiring the implementation of analysis-specific device models. (3) Device models that are specifically tailored to meet Sandia's needs, including some radiation-aware devices (for Sandia users only). (4) Object-oriented code design and implementation using modern coding practices. Xyce™ is a parallel code in the most general sense of the phrase—a message passing parallel implementation—which allows it to run efficiently a wide range of computing platforms. These include serial, shared-memory and distributed-memory parallel platforms. Attention has been paid to the specific nature of circuit-simulation problems to ensure that optimal parallel eficiency is achieved as the number of processors grows.

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On October 1, 2022, sound level measurements were taken at various locations throughout Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB) and Southeastern Albuquerque. The purpose was to support sound propagation modeling predictions and sound regulations for public exposure during the detonation of an approximately 300-pound energetic experiment. Ground Zero was located on Range 7 of Sandia Thunder Range (06647). A total of 8 measurement locations were identified (e.g., 5 on KAFB and 3 in the Southeastern Albuquerque neighborhoods).

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Viscoelastic rebound of the solid Earth upon the removal of ice loads has the potential to inhibit marine ice sheet instability, thereby forestalling ice-sheet retreat and global mean sea-level rise. The timescale over which the solid Earth - ice sheet system responds to changes in ice thickness and bedrock topography places a strong control on the spatiotemporal influence of this negative feedback mechanism. In this study, we assess the impact of solid-earth rheological structure on model projections of the retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, and the concomitant sea-level rise by coupling the dynamic ice sheet model MALI to a regional glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. We test the sensitivity of model projections of ice-sheet retreat and associated sea-level rise across a range of four different solid-earth rheologies, forced by standard ISMIP6 ocean and atmospheric datasets for the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These model parameters are applied to 500-year, coupled ice-sheet - GIA simulations. For the mantle viscosity best supported by observations, the negative GIA feedback leads to a reduction in mass loss that remains above 20% after about a hundred years. Mass-loss reduction peaks at 50% around 2300, which is when a control simulation without GIA experiences its maximum rate of retreat. For a weaker solid-earth rheology that is unlikely but compatible with observational uncertainty, mass loss reduction remains above 50% after 2150. At 2100, mass loss reduction is 10% for the best-fit rheology and 25% for the weakest rheology. At the same time, we estimate that water expulsion from the rebounding solid Earth beneath the ocean near Thwaites Glacier may increase sea-level rise by up to 20% at five centuries. Additionally, the reduction in ice-sheet retreat caused by GIA is substantially reduced under stronger climate forcings, suggesting that the stabilizing feedback of GIA will also be an indirect function of emissions scenario. We hypothesize that feedbacks between the solid Earth - ice sheet system are controlled by a competition between the spatial extent and timescale of bedrock uplift relative to the rate of grounded ice retreat away from the region of most rapid unloading. Although uncertainty in solid-earth rheology leads to large uncertainty in future sea-level rise contribution from Thwaites Glacier, under all plausible parameters the GIA effects are too large to be ignored for future projections of Thwaites Glacier of more than a century.

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