Multifidelity (MF) uncertainty quantification (UQ) seeks to leverage and fuse information from a collection of models to achieve greater statistical accuracy with respect to a single-fidelity counterpart, while maintaining an efficient use of computational resources. Despite many recent advancements in MF UQ, several challenges remain and these often limit its practical impact in certain application areas. In this manuscript, we focus on the challenges introduced by nondeterministic models to sampling MF UQ estimators. Nondeterministic models produce different responses for the same inputs, which means their outputs are effectively noisy. MF UQ is complicated by this noise since many state-of-the-art approaches rely on statistics, e.g., the correlation among models, to optimally fuse information and allocate computational resources. We demonstrate how the statistics of the quantities of interest, which impact the design, effectiveness, and use of existing MF UQ techniques, change as functions of the noise. With this in hand, we extend the unifying approximate control variate framework to account for nondeterminism, providing for the first time a rigorous means of comparing the effect of nondeterminism on different multifidelity estimators and analyzing their performance with respect to one another. Numerical examples are presented throughout the manuscript to illustrate and discuss the consequences of the presented theoretical results.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a critical role in verifying and validating forward integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models. Among numerous ICME models, the crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) is a powerful tool that enables one to assess microstructure-sensitive behaviors and thus, bridge material structure to performance. Nevertheless, given its nature of constitutive model form and the randomness of microstructures, CPFEM is exposed to both aleatory uncertainty (microstructural variability), as well as epistemic uncertainty (parametric and model-form error). Therefore, the observations are often corrupted by the microstructure-induced uncertainty, as well as the ICME approximation and numerical errors. In this work, we highlight several ongoing research topics in UQ, optimization, and machine learning applications for CPFEM to efficiently solve forward and inverse problems. The first aspect of this work addresses the UQ of constitutive models for epistemic uncertainty, including both phenomenological and dislocation-density-based constitutive models, where the quantities of interest (QoIs) are related to the initial yield behaviors. We apply a stochastic collocation (SC) method to quantify the uncertainty of the three most commonly used constitutive models in CPFEM, namely phenomenological models (with and without twinning), and dislocation-density-based constitutive models, for three different types of crystal structures, namely face-centered cubic (fcc) copper (Cu), body-centered cubic (bcc) tungsten (W), and hexagonal close packing (hcp) magnesium (Mg). The second aspect of this work addresses the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty with multiple mesh resolutions and multiple constitutive models by the multi-index Monte Carlo method, where the QoI is also related to homogenized materials properties. We present a unified approach that accounts for various fidelity parameters, such as mesh resolutions, integration time-steps, and constitutive models simultaneously. We illustrate how multilevel sampling methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC), can be applied to assess the impact of variations in the microstructure of polycrystalline materials on the predictions of macroscopic mechanical properties. The third aspect of this work addresses the crystallographic texture study of a single void in a cube. Using a parametric reduced-order model (also known as parametric proper orthogonal decomposition) with a global orthonormal basis as a model reduction technique, we demonstrate that the localized dynamic stress and strain fields can be predicted as a spatiotemporal problem.
Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker-Planck equation. We discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker-Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker-Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a major role in verification and validation for computational engineering models and simulations, and establishes trust in the predictive capability of computational models. In the materials science and engineering context, where the process-structure-property-performance linkage is well known to be the only road mapping from manufacturing to engineering performance, numerous integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been developed across a wide spectrum of length-scales and time-scales to relieve the burden of resource-intensive experiments. Within the structure-property linkage, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) models have been widely used since they are one of a few ICME toolboxes that allows numerical predictions, providing the bridge from microstructure to materials properties and performances. Several constitutive models have been proposed in the last few decades to capture the mechanics and plasticity behavior of materials. While some UQ studies have been performed, the robustness and uncertainty of these constitutive models have not been rigorously established. In this work, we apply a stochastic collocation (SC) method, which is mathematically rigorous and has been widely used in the field of UQ, to quantify the uncertainty of three most commonly used constitutive models in CPFEM, namely phenomenological models (with and without twinning), and dislocation-density-based constitutive models, for three different types of crystal structures, namely face-centered cubic (fcc) copper (Cu), body-centered cubic (bcc) tungsten (W), and hexagonal close packing (hcp) magnesium (Mg). Our numerical results not only quantify the uncertainty of these constitutive models in stress-strain curve, but also analyze the global sensitivity of the underlying constitutive parameters with respect to the initial yield behavior, which may be helpful for robust constitutive model calibration works in the future.
This report documents the results of an FY22 ASC V&V level 2 milestone demonstrating new algorithms for multifidelity uncertainty quantification. Part I of the report describes the algorithms, studies their performance on a simple model problem, and then deploys the methods to a thermal battery example from the open literature. Part II (restricted distribution) applies the multifidelity UQ methods to specific thermal batteries of interest to the NNSA/ASC program.
High-fidelity complex engineering simulations are often predictive, but also computationally expensive and often require substantial computational efforts. The mitigation of computational burden is usually enabled through parallelism in high-performance cluster (HPC) architecture. Optimization problems associated with these applications is a challenging problem due to the high computational cost of the high-fidelity simulations. In this paper, an asynchronous parallel constrained Bayesian optimization method is proposed to efficiently solve the computationally expensive simulation-based optimization problems on the HPC platform, with a budgeted computational resource, where the maximum number of simulations is a constant. The advantage of this method are three-fold. First, the efficiency of the Bayesian optimization is improved, where multiple input locations are evaluated parallel in an asynchronous manner to accelerate the optimization convergence with respect to physical runtime. This efficiency feature is further improved so that when each of the inputs is finished, another input is queried without waiting for the whole batch to complete. Second, the proposed method can handle both known and unknown constraints. Third, the proposed method samples several acquisition functions based on their rewards using a modified GP-Hedge scheme. The proposed framework is termed aphBO-2GP-3B, which means asynchronous parallel hedge Bayesian optimization with two Gaussian processes and three batches. The numerical performance of the proposed framework aphBO-2GP-3B is comprehensively benchmarked using 16 numerical examples, compared against other 6 parallel Bayesian optimization variants and 1 parallel Monte Carlo as a baseline, and demonstrated using two real-world high-fidelity expensive industrial applications. The first engineering application is based on finite element analysis (FEA) and the second one is based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations.