Understanding how science and technology advance has long been of interest to diverse scholarly communities. Thus far, however, such understanding has not been easy to map to, and thus to improve, the operational practice of research and development. Indeed, one might argue that the operational practice of research and development, particularly its exploratory research half, has become less effective in recent decades. In this paper, we describe a rethinking of how science and technology advance, one that is consistent with many (though not all) of the perspectives of the scholarly communities just mentioned, and one that helps bridge the divide between theory and practice. The result is an architecture we call “Bell's Dodecants,” to reflect its six mechanisms and two flavors, and their balanced nurturing at Bell Labs, the iconic 20th century industrial research and development laboratory.
We present a high-level architecture for how artificial intelligences might advance and accumulate scientific and technological knowledge, inspired by emerging perspectives on how human intelligences advance and accumulate such knowledge. Agents advance knowledge by exercising a technoscientific method—an interacting combination of scientific and engineering methods. The technoscientific method maximizes a quantity we call “useful learning” via more-creative implausible utility (including the “aha!” moments of discovery), as well as via less-creative plausible utility. Society accumulates the knowledge advanced by agents so that other agents can incorporate and build on to make further advances. The proposed architecture is challenging but potentially complete: its execution might in principle enable artificial intelligences to advance and accumulate an equivalent of the full range of human scientific and technological knowledge.
This project matured a new understanding (a “modern synthesis”) of the structure and evolution of science and technology. It created an understanding and framework for how Sandia National Labs, the Department of Energy, and the nation, might improve their research productivity, with significant ramifications on national security and economic competitiveness.
On April 6-8, 2021, Sandia National Laboratories hosted a virtual workshop to explore the potential for developing AI-Enhanced Co-Design for Next-Generation Microelectronics (AICoM). The workshop brought together two themes. The first theme was articulated in the 2018 Department of Energy Office of Science (DOE SC) “Basic Research Needs for Microelectronics” (BRN) report, which called for a “fundamental rethinking” of the traditional design approach to microelectronics, in which subject matter experts (SMEs) in each microelectronics discipline (materials, devices, circuits, algorithms, etc.) work near-independently. Instead, the BRN called for a non-hierarchical, egalitarian vision of co-design, wherein “each scientific discipline informs and engages the others” in “parallel but intimately networked efforts to create radically new capabilities.” The second theme was the recognition of the continuing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) that are currently enhancing and accelerating the solution of traditional design problems in materials science, circuit design, and electronic design automation (EDA).
Two perspectives are used to reframe Simonton’s recent three-factor definition of creative outcome. The first perspective is functional: that creative ideas are those that add significantly to knowledge by providing both utility and learning. The second perspective is calculational: that learning can be estimated by the change in probabilistic beliefs about an idea’s utility before and after it has played out in its environment. The results of the reframing are proposed conceptual and mathematical definitions of (a) creative outcome as the product of two overarching factors (utility and learning) and (b) learning as a function of two subsidiary factors (blindness reduction and surprise). Learning will be shown to depend much more strongly on surprise than on blindness reduction, so creative outcome may then also be defined as “implausible utility.”.
We raise for debate and discussion what in our opinion is a growing mis-control and mis-protection of U.S. energy research. We outline the origin of this mis-control and mis-protection, and propose two guiding principles to mitigate them and instead nurture research: (1) focus on people, not projects; and (2) culturally insulate research from development, but not science from technology. Energy research is critical to continuing advances in human productivity and welfare. In this Commentary, we raise for debate and discussion what in our view is a growing mis-control and mis-protection of U.S. energy research. This flawed approach originates in natural human tendencies exacerbated by an historical misunderstanding of research and development, science and technology, and the relationships between them. We outline the origin of the mis-control and mis-protection, and propose two guiding principles to mitigate them and instead nurture research: (i) focus on people, not projects; and (ii) culturally insulate research from development, but not science from technology. Our hope is to introduce these principles into the discourse now, so they can help guide policy changes in U.S. energy research and development that are currently being driven by powerful geopolitical winds. Summary: Two foundational guiding principles are proposed to mitigate a growing mis-control and mis-protection of U.S. energy research, and instead to nurture it.
We present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in the electrification of energy by free-fuel sources. These trends point toward a future in which energy is affordable, abundant, and efficiently deployed; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to humanity. We present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported unidirectionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bidirectionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored artificial agential control. These trends point toward a future in which energy is not costly, scarce, or inefficiently deployed but instead is affordable, abundant, and efficiently deployed; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to humanity.
Quantum-size-controlled photoelectrochemical (QSC-PEC) etching, which uses quantum confinement effects to control size, can potentially enable the fabrication of epitaxial quantum nanostructures with unprecedented accuracy and precision across a wide range of materials systems. However, many open questions remain about this new technique, including its limitations and broader applicability. In this project, using an integrated experimental and theoretical modeling approach, we pursue a greater understanding of the time-dependent QSC-PEC etch process and to uncover the underlying mechanisms that determine its ultimate accuracy and precision. We also seek to broaden our understanding of the scope of its ultimate applicability in emerging nanostructures and nanodevices.
This open access book examines how the social sciences can be integrated into the praxis of engineering and science, presenting unique perspectives on the interplay between engineering and social science. Motivated by the report by the Commission on Humanities and Social Sciences of the American Association of Arts and Sciences, which emphasizes the importance of social sciences and Humanities in technical fields, the essays and papers collected in this book were presented at the NSF-funded workshop ‘Engineering a Better Future: Interplay between Engineering, Social Sciences and Innovation’, which brought together a singular collection of people, topics and disciplines. The book is split into three parts: A. Meeting at the Middle: Challenges to educating at the boundaries covers experiments in combining engineering education and the social sciences; B. Engineers Shaping Human Affairs: Investigating the interaction between social sciences and engineering, including the cult of innovation, politics of engineering, engineering design and future of societies; and C. Engineering the Engineers: Investigates thinking about design with papers on the art and science of science and engineering practice.
In August 2017, Sandia convened five workshops to explore the future of advanced technologies and global peace and security through the lenses of deterrence, information, innovation, nonproliferation, and population and Earth systems.
A monumental shift from conventional lighting technologies (incandescent, fluorescent, high intensity discharge) to LED lighting is currently transpiring. The primary driver for this shift has been energy and associated cost savings. LED lighting is now more efficacious than any of the conventional lighting technologies with room to still improve. Near term, phosphor converted LED packages have the potential for efficacy improvement from 160 lm/W to 255 lm/W. Longer term, color-mixed LED packages have the potential for efficacy levels conceivably as high as 330 lm/W, though reaching these performance levels requires breakthroughs in green and amber LED efficiency. LED package efficacy sets the upper limit to luminaire efficacy, with the luminaire containing its own efficacy loss channels. In this paper, based on analyses performed through the U.S. Department of Energy Solid State Lighting Program, various LED and luminaire loss channels are elucidated, and critical areas for improvement identified. Beyond massive energy savings, LED technology enables a host of new applications and added value not possible or economical with previous lighting technologies. These include connected lighting, lighting tailored for human physiological responses, horticultural lighting, and ecologically conscious lighting. Finally, none of these new applications would be viable if not for the high efficacies that have been achieved, and are themselves just the beginning of what LED lighting can do.