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Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization

Desmond, Jacob; Walsh, Timothy W.; McCormick, Cameron M.; Smith, Chandler B.; Kurzawski, Andrew K.; Sanders, Clay M.; Eldred, Michael S.; Aquino, Wilkins

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this works offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The proposed approach is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

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Support Vector Machines for Estimating Decision Boundaries with Numerical Simulations

Walsh, Timothy W.; Aquino, Wilkins A.; Kurzawski, Andrew K.; McCormick, Cameron M.; Sanders, Clay M.; Smith, Chandler B.; Treweek, Benjamin T.

Many engineering design problems can be formulated as decisions between two possible options. This is the case, for example, when a quantity of interest must be maintained below or above some threshold. The threshold thereby determines which input parameters lead to which option, and creates a boundary between the two options known as the decision boundary. This report details a machine learning approach for estimating decision boundaries, based on support vector machines (SVMs), that is amenable to large scale computational simulations. Because it is computationally expensive to evaluate each training sample, the approach iteratively estimates the decision boundary in a manner that requires relatively few training samples to glean useful estimates. The approach is then demonstrated on three example problems from structural mechanics and heat transport.

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Inverse Methods - Users Manual 5.6

Walsh, Timothy W.; Akcelik, Volkan A.; Aquino, Wilkins A.; McCormick, Cameron M.; Sanders, Clay M.; Treweek, Benjamin T.; Kurzawski, Andrew K.; Smith, Chandler B.

The inverse methods team provides a set of tools for solving inverse problems in structural dynamics and thermal physics, and also sensor placement optimization via Optimal Experimental Design (OED). These methods are used for designing experiments, model calibration, and verfication/validation analysis of weapons systems. This document provides a user's guide to the input for the three apps that are supported for these methods. Details of input specifications, output options, and optimization parameters are included.

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8 Results
8 Results