Publications

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This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

The purpose of this report is to document improvements in the simulation of commercial vacuum drying procedures at the Nuclear Energy Work Complex at Sandia National Laboratories. Validation of the extent of water removal in a dry spent nuclear fuel storage system based on drying procedures used at nuclear power plants is needed to close existing technical gaps. Operational conditions leading to incomplete drying may have potential impacts on the fuel, cladding, and other components in the system. A general lack of data suitable for model validation of commercial nuclear canister drying processes necessitates additional, well-designed investigations of drying process efficacy and water retention. Scaled tests that incorporate relevant physics and well-controlled boundary conditions are essential to provide insight and guidance to the simulation of prototypic systems undergoing drying processes.

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This document describes the Power and Energy Storage Systems Toolbox for MATLAB, abbreviated as PSTess. This computing package is a fork of the Power Systems Toolbox (PST). PST was originally developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and later upgraded by Dr. Graham Rogers at Cherry Tree Scientific Software. While PSTess shares a common lineage with PST Version 3.0, it is a substantially different application. This document supplements the main PST manual by describing the features and models that are unique to PSTess. As the name implies, the main distinguishing characteristic of PSTess is its ability to model inverter-based energy storage systems (ESS). The model that enables this is called ess.m , and it serves the dual role of representing ESS operational constraints and the generator/converter interface. As in the WECC REGC_A model, the generator/converter interface is modeled as a controllable current source with the ability to modulate both real and reactive current. The model ess.m permits four-quadrant modulation, which allows it to represent a wide variety of inverter-based resources beyond energy storage when paired with an appropriate supplemental control model. Examples include utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants, Type 4 wind plants, and static synchronous compensators (STATCOM). This capability is especially useful for modeling hybrid plants that combine energy storage with renewable resources or FACTS devices.

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The effect of extreme waves on the coastal community includes inundation, loss of habitats, increasing shoreline erosion, and increasing risks to coastal infrastructures (e.g., ports, breakwaters, oil and gas platforms), important for supporting coastal resilience. The coastal communities along the US Gulf of Mexico are very low-lying, which makes the region particularly vulnerable to impacts of extreme waves generated by storm events. We propose assessing and mapping the risks from extreme waves for the Gulf of Mexico coast to support coastal resiliency planning. The risks will be assessed by computing n-year recurring wave height (e.g., 1, 5, 50, 100-year) using 32-year wave hindcast data and various extreme value analysis techniques including Peak- Over-Threshold and Annual Maxima method. The characteristics of the extreme waves, e.g., relations between the mean and extreme wave climates, directions associated with extreme waves, will be investigated. Hazard maps associated with extreme wave heights at different return periods will be generated to help planners identify potential risks and envision places that are less susceptible to future storm damage.

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The quantum k-Local Hamiltonian problem is a natural generalization of classical constraint satisfaction problems (k-CSP) and is complete for QMA, a quantum analog of NP. Although the complexity of k-Local Hamiltonian problems has been well studied, only a handful of approximation results are known. For Max 2-Local Hamiltonian where each term is a rank 3 projector, a natural quantum generalization of classical Max 2-SAT, the best known approximation algorithm was the trivial random assignment, yielding a 0.75-approximation. We present the first approximation algorithm beating this bound, a classical polynomial-time 0.764-approximation. For strictly quadratic instances, which are maximally entangled instances, we provide a 0.801 approximation algorithm, and numerically demonstrate that our algorithm is likely a 0.821-approximation. We conjecture these are the hardest instances to approximate. We also give improved approximations for quantum generalizations of other related classical 2-CSPs. Finally, we exploit quantum connections to a generalization of the Grothendieck problem to obtain a classical constant-factor approximation for the physically relevant special case of strictly quadratic traceless 2-Local Hamiltonians on bipartite interaction graphs, where a inverse logarithmic approximation was the best previously known (for general interaction graphs). Our work employs recently developed techniques for analyzing classical approximations of CSPs and is intended to be accessible to both quantum information scientists and classical computer scientists.

Metallic lattice structures are being considered for shock mitigation applications due to their superior mechanical properties, energy absorption capability and lightweight characteristics inherent of the additive manufacturing process. In this study, shock compression experiments coupled to x-ray phase contrast imaging (PCI) were conducted on 316L stainless steel lattices. Meso-scale simulations incorporating the as-built lattice structure characterized by computed tomography were used to simulate PCI radiographs in CTH for direct comparison to experimental data. The methodology presented here offers robust validation for constitutive properties to further our understanding of lattice compaction at application-relevant strain rates.

Nonlocal models naturally handle a range of physics of interest to SNL, but discretization of their underlying integral operators poses mathematical challenges to realize the accuracy and robustness commonplace in discretization of local counterparts. This project focuses on the concept of asymptotic compatibility, namely preservation of the limit of the discrete nonlocal model to a corresponding well-understood local solution. We address challenges that have traditionally troubled nonlocal mechanics models primarily related to consistency guarantees and boundary conditions. For simple problems such as diffusion and linear elasticity we have developed complete error analysis theory providing consistency guarantees. We then take these foundational tools to develop new state-of-the-art capabilities for: lithiation-induced failure in batteries, ductile failure of problems driven by contact, blast-on-structure induced failure, brittle/ductile failure of thin structures. We also summarize ongoing efforts using these frameworks in data-driven modeling contexts. This report provides a high-level summary of all publications which followed from these efforts.

Seismic source modeling allows researchers both to simulate how a source that induces seismic waves interacts with the Earth to produce observed seismograms and, inversely, to infer what the time histories, sizes, and force distributions were for a seismic source given observed seismograms. In this report, we discuss improvements made in FY21 to our software as applies to both the forward and inverse seismic source modeling problems. For the forward portion of the problem, we have added the ability to use full 3-D nonlinear simulations by implementing 3-D time varying boundary conditions within Sandia’s linear seismic code Parelasti. Secondly, on the inverse source modeling side, we have developed software that allows us to invert seismic gradiometer-derived observations in conjunction with standard translational motion seismic data to infer properties of the source that may improve characterization in certain circumstances. First, we describe the basic theory behind each software enhancement and then demonstrate the software in action with some simple examples.

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The aim of this project was to advance single-cell RNA-Seq methods toward the establishment of a platform that may be used to simultaneously interrogate the gene expression profiles of mammalian host cells and bacterial pathogens. Existing genetic sequencing methods that measure bulk groups of cells do not account for the heterogeneity of cell-microbe interactions that occur within a complex environment, have limited efficiency, and cannot simultaneously interrogate bacterial sequences. In order to overcome these challenges, separate biochemistry workflows were developed based on a No-So-Random hexamer priming strategy or libraries of targeted molecular probes. Computational tools were developed to facilitate these methods, and feasibility was demonstrated for single-cell RNA-Seq for both bacterial and mammalian transcriptomes. This work supports cross-agency national priorities on addressing the threat of biological pathogens and understanding the role of the microbiome in modulating immunity and susceptibility to infection.

Identification and characterization of underground events from surface or remote data requires a thorough understanding of the rock material properties. However, material properties usually come from borehole data, which is expensive and not always available. A potential alternative is to use topographic characteristics to approximate the strength, but this has never been done before quantitatively. Here we present the results from the first steps towards this goal. We have found that there are strong correlations between compressive and tensile strengths and slopes, but these correlations vary depending on data analysis details. Rugosity may be better correlated to strength than slope values. More comprehensive analyses are needed to fully understand the best method of predicting strength from topography for this area. We also found that misalignment of multiple GIS datasets can have a large influence on the ability to make interpretations. Lastly, these results will require further study in a variety of climatic conditions before being applicable to other sites.

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This final report summarizes the work completed under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project “Seismic Spatial Gradients as a Machine Learning-Based Classifier for Explosion Monitoring.” The overarching goal of the project was to explore the efficacy of using machine learning-based classification algorithms where the input data are the spatial gradient of the seismic wavefield collected at a single point on the Earth’s surface. The methods that I describe here are in direct contrast to conventional methods of seismic discrimination which typically rely on a spatially extended network of instruments and physics-based wavefield attributes such as, for example, the ratio between $\textit{P}$ and $\textit{S}$ waves. Rather, we use the spatial gradient of the seismic wavefield observed at a single point on the Earth’s surface and data processing approaches inspired by the machine learning community. We tested two algorithms, a neural network and a modified version of principal component analysis termed Spectrally Filtered Principal Component Analysis (SFPCA). To test these algorithms, we first conducted a series of numerical tests using synthetic data and then conducted a small-scale controlled field experiment. The tests using synthetic data showed that both algorithms had high success rates on gradiometric data, even when simulated noise was added to the signal. Furthermore, we found that using seismic spatial gradients increased the performance of our discrimination algorithms when compared to using just the traditional translational motion seismic data. The tests with field data also showed a high degree of discriminative success.

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Hole spin qubits confined to lithographically - defined lateral quantum dots in Ge/SiGe heterostructures show great promise. On reason for this is the intrinsic spin - orbit coupling that allows all - electric control of the qubit. That same feature can be exploited as a coupling mechanism to coherently link spin qubits to a photon field in a superconducting resonator, which could, in principle, be used as a quantum bus to distribute quantum information. The work reported here advances the knowledge and technology required for such a demonstration. We discuss the device fabrication and characterization of different quantum dot designs and the demonstration of single hole occupation in multiple devices. Superconductor resonators fabricated using an outside vendor were found to have adequate performance and a path toward flip-chip integration with quantum devices is discussed. The results of an optical study exploring aspects of using implanted Ga as quantum memory in a Ge system are presented.

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The June 15, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption is simulated in E3SM by injecting 10 Tg of SO₂ gas in the stratosphere, turning off prescribed volcanic aerosols, and enabling E3SM to treat stratospheric volcanic aerosols prognostically. This experimental prognostic treatment of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere results in some realistic behaviors (SO₂ evolves into H₂SO₄ which heats the lower stratosphere), and some expected biases (H₂SO₄ aerosols sediment out of the stratosphere too quickly). Climate fingerprinting techniques are used to establish a Mt. Pinatubo fingerprint based on the vertical profile of temperature from the E3SMv1 DECK ensemble. By projecting reanalysis data and preindustrial simulations onto the fingerprint, the Mt. Pinatubo stratospheric heating anomaly is detected. Projecting the experimental prognostic aerosol simulation onto the fingerprint also results in a detectable heating anomaly, but, as expected, the duration is too short relative to reanalysis data.

Currently a set of 71 radionuclides are accounted for in off-site consequence analysis for LWRs. Radionuclides of dose consequence are expected to change for non-LWRs, with radionuclides of interest being type-specific. This document identifies an expanded set of radionuclides that may need to be accounted for in multiple non-LWR systems: high temperature gas reactors (HTGRs); fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactors (FHRs); thermal-spectrum fluoride-based molten salt reactors (MSRs); fast-spectrum chloride-based MSRs; and, liquid metal fast reactors with metallic fuel (LMRs) Specific considerations are provided for each reactor type in Chapter 2 through Chapter 5, and a summary of all recommendations is provided in Chapter 6. All identified radionuclides are already incorporated within the MACCS software, yet the development of tritium-specific and carbon-specific chemistry models are recommended.

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Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.

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Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.

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This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

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Additively manufactured (AM) stainless steels (SSs) exhibit numerous microstructural differences compared to their wrought counterparts, such as Cr-enriched dislocation cell structures. The influence these unique features have on a SSs corrosion resistance are still under investigation with most current works limited to laboratory experiments. The work herein shows the first documented study of AM 304L and 316L exposed to a severe marine environment on the eastern coast of Florida with comparisons made to wrought counterparts. Coupons were exposed for 21 months and resulted in significant pitting corrosion to initiate after 1 month of exposure for all conditions. At all times, the AM coupons exhibited lower average and maximum pit depths than their wrought counterparts. After 21 months, pits on average were 4 μm deep for AM 316L specimen and 8 μm deep for wrought specimen. Pits on the wrought samples tended to be nearly hemispherical and polished with some pits showing crystallographic attack while pits on AM coupons exhibited preferential attack at melt pool boundaries and the cellular microstructure.

We describe a novel pulsed magnetic gradiometer based on the optical interference of sidebands generated using two spatially separated alkali vapor cells. In contrast to traditional magnetic gradiometers, our approach provides a direct readout of the gradient field without the intermediate step of subtracting the outputs of two spatially separated magnetometers. Operation of the gradiometer in multiple field orientations is discussed. The noise floor is measured as low as 25$\frac{fT}{\sqrt{Hz-cm}}$ in a room without magnetic shielding.

Over the past four years, an informal working group has developed to investigate existing sensitivity analysis methods, examine new methods, and identify best practices. The focus is on the use of sensitivity analysis in case studies involving geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel or nuclear waste. To examine ideas and have applicable test cases for comparison purposes, we have developed multiple case studies. Four of these case studies are presented in this report: the GRS clay case, the SNL shale case, the Dessel case, and the IBRAE groundwater case. We present the different sensitivity analysis methods investigated by various groups, the results obtained by different groups and different implementations, and summarize our findings.

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A nonmagnetized collisional plasma parameter estimator from two frequency signal interrogation attenuation is developed. The plasma parameters that are estimated are the plasma frequency, electron neutral momentum collision frequency, and the plasma thickness. The plasma frequency and electron neutral momentum collision frequency are considered uniform across the plasma thickness. The relative permittivity is defined, and the complex index of refraction is developed. Using this definition and applying the plasma frequency, electron neutral momentum collision frequency, the radial propagation frequency, and plasma thickness, an attenuation is determined for known cases. The development of the estimator is discussed. The estimator uses a performance index where the minimum difference between the plasma frequencies and electron neutral momentum collision frequencies is determined for the two signal interrogation frequencies under the constraint of the same plasma thickness. The estimator was developed in three stages which include iterative, sequential, and adaptive. The setups of the iterative, sequential, and adaptive approaches are discussed. The impact of the interrogation frequency and the estimator setup is investigated. The estimator in the three development stages is compared with known cases and the plasma parameter estimator performance is quantified.

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Given the prevalent role of metals in a variety of industries, schemes to integrate corresponding constitutive models in finite element applications have long been studied. A number of formulations have been developed to accomplish this task; each with their own advantages and costs. Often the focus has been on ensuring the accuracy and numerical stability of these algorithms to enable robust integration. While important, emphasis on these performance metrics may often come at the cost of computational expense potentially neglecting the needs of individual problems. In the current work, the performance of two of the most common integration methods for anisotropic plasticity -- the convex cutting plane (CCP) and closest point projection (CPP) -- across a variety of metrics is assessed; including accuracy and cost. A variety of problems are considered ranging from single elements to large representative simulations including both implicit quasistatic and explicit transient dynamic type responses. The relative performance of each scheme in the different instances is presented with an eye towards guidance on when the different algorithms may be beneficial.

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The adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems grew significantly in recent years. Market projections anticipate future growth for both residential and commercial installations. To understand grid impacts associated with distributed PV, useful hosting capacity studies require accurate representations of the spatial distribution of PV adoptions. Prediction of PV locations and numbers depends on median income data, building use zoning maps, and permit records to understand existing trends and predict future adoption rates and locations throughout an entire city. Using the PV adoption data, advanced and realistic simulations were performed to capture the distributed PV impacts on the grid. Also, using graph theory community detection hundreds of neighborhood microgrids can be discovered for the entire city by identifying densely connected loads that are sparsely connected to other communities. Then, based on the PV adoption predictions, this work identified the contribution of PV within each of the newly discovered graph theory defined microgrid communities.

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Detonations and flames are characterized by three-dimensional (3D) temperature fields, yet state-of- the-art temperature measurement techniques yield information at a point or along a line. The goal of the research documented here was to combine ultrafast laser spectroscopy and structured illumination to deliver an unprecedented measurement capability—three-dimensional, instantaneous temperature measurements in a gas-phase volume. To achieve this objective, different parts of the proposed technique were developed and tested independently. Structured illumination was used to image particulate matter (soot) in a turbulent flame at multiple planes using a single laser pulse and a single camera. Emission spectroscopy with structured detection was demonstrated for emission- based measurements of explosives with enhance dimensionality. Finally, an instrument for multi- planar laser-based temperature measurement technique was developed. Structured illumination techniques will continue to be developed for multi-dimensional and multi-parameter measurements. These new measurement capabilities will be important for heat transfer and fluid dynamic research areas.

We present a novel definition of variable-order fractional Laplacian on Rⁿ based on a natural generalization of the standard Riesz potential. Our definition holds for values of the fractional parameter spanning the entire open set (0, n/2). We then discuss some properties of the fractional Poisson’s equation involving this operator and we compute the corresponding Green’s function, for which we provide some instructive examples for specific problems.

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This project developed prototype germanium telluride switches, which can be used in RF applications to improve SWAP (size, weight, and power) and signal quality in RF systems. These switches can allow for highly reconfigurable systems, including antennas, communications, optical systems, phased arrays, and synthetic aperture radar, which all have high impact on current National Security goals for improved communication systems and communication technology supremacy. The final result of the project was the demonstration of germanium telluride RF switches, which could act as critical elements necessary for a single chip RF communication system that will demonstrate low SWAP and high reconfigurability

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