Radioactive iodine, 129I, a component of spent nuclear fuel, is of particular concern due to its extremely long half-life, its potential mobility in the environment and its effects on human health. In the spent fuel reprocessing scheme under consideration, the 129I is released in gaseous form and collected using Ag-loaded zeolites such as Ag-mordenite. The 129I can react with the Ag to form insoluble AgI. We have investigated the use of low temperature-sintering glass powders mixed with either AgI or AgI-zeolite to produce dense waste forms that can be processed at 500°C, where AgI volatility is low. These mixtures can contain up to 20 wt% crushed AgI-mordenite or up to 50 wt% AgI. Both types of waste forms were found to have the high iodine leach resistance in these initial studies.
This work uses a bifurcation approach to develop theoretical predictions for deformation band formation for a suite of true triaxial tests on Castlegate sandstone. In particular, the influence of the intermediate principal stress on strain localization is examined. Using common simplifying assumptions (localization occurs at peak stress, and the failure surface is similar to the yield surface), theoretical predictions captured the overall trends observed experimentally. However, agreement between predicted and observed band orientations for individual specimens was varied. This highlights the importance of detailed data analyses to accurately determine key material parameter values at the inception of localization.
A low-hazard approach is presented to prepare metallographic cross-sections of moisture-sensitive battery components. The approach is tailored for evaluation of thermal (molten salt) batteries composed of thin pressed-powder pellets, but has general applicability to other battery electrochemistries. Solution-cast polystyrene is used to encapsulate cells before embedding in epoxy. Nonaqueous grinding and polishing are performed in an industrial dry room to increase throughput. Lapping oil is used as a lubricant throughout grinding. Hexane is used as the solvent throughout processing; occupational exposure levels are well below the limits. Light optical and scanning electron microscopy on cross-sections are used to analyse a thermal battery cell. Spatially resolved X-ray diffraction on oblique angle cut cells complement the metallographic analysis. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
The Image Composition Engine for Tiles (IceT) is a high-performance sort-last parallel rendering library. In addition to providing accelerated rendering for a standard display, IceT provides the unique ability to generate images for tiled displays. The overall resolution of the display may be several times larger than any viewport that may be rendered by a single machine. This document is an overview of the user interface to IceT.
Qualification vibration tests are routinely performed on prototype hardware. Model validation cannot generally be done from the qualification vibration test because of multiple uncertainties, particularly the uncertainty of the boundary condition. These uncertainties can have a dramatic effect on the modal parameters extracted from the data. It would be valuable if one could extract a modal model of the test article with a known boundary condition from the qualification vibration test. This work addresses an attempt to extract fixed base modes on a 1.2 meter tall test article in a random vibration test on a 1.07 meter long slip table. The slip table was supported by an oil film on a granite block and driven by a 111,000 Newton shaker, hereinafter denoted as the big shaker. This approach requires obtaining dominant characteristic shapes of the bare table. A vibration test on the full system is performed. The characteristic table generalized coordinates are constrained to zero to obtain fixed base results. Results determined the first three fixed base bending mode frequencies excited by the shaker within four percent. A stick-slip nonlinearity in the shaker system had a negative effect on the final damping ratios producing large errors. An alternative approach to extracting the modal parameters directly from transmissibilities proved to be more accurate. Even after accounting for distortion due to the Harm window, it appears that dissipation physics in the bare shaker table provide additional damping beyond the true fixed base damping.
Recently, a new substructure coupling/uncoupling approach has been introduced, called Modal Constraints for Fixture and Subsystem (MCFS) [Allen, Mayes, & Bergman, Journal of Sound and Vibration, vol. 329, 2010]. This method reduces ill-conditioning by imposing constraints on substructure modal coordinates instead of the physical interface coordinates. The experimental substructure is tested in a free-free configuration, and the interface is exercised by attaching a flexible fixture. An analytical representation of the fixture is then used to subtract its effects in order to create an experimental model for the subcomponent of interest. However, it has been observed that indefinite mass and stiffness matrices can be obtained for the experimental substructure in some situations. This paper presents two simple metrics that can be used by the analyst to determine the cause of indefinite mass or stiffness matrices after substructure uncoupling. The metrics rank the experimental and fixture modes based upon their contribution to offending negative eigenvalues. Once the troublesome modes have been identified, they can be inspected and often reveal why the mass has become negative. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the metrics and to illustrate the physical phenomena that they reveal.
Key components of the nuclear fuel cycle are short-term storage and long-term disposal of nuclear waste. The latter encompasses the immobilization of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and radioactive waste streams generated by various phases of the nuclear fuel cycle, and the safe and permanent disposition of these waste forms in geological repository environments. The engineered barrier system (EBS) plays a very important role in the long-term isolation of nuclear waste in geological repository environments. EBS concepts and their interactions with the natural barrier are inherently important to the long-term performance assessment of the safety case where nuclear waste disposition needs to be evaluated for time periods of up to one million years. Making the safety case needed in the decision-making process for the recommendation and the eventual embracement of a disposal system concept requires a multi-faceted integration of knowledge and evidence-gathering to demonstrate the required confidence level in a deep geological disposal site and to evaluate long-term repository performance. The focus of this report is the following: (1) Evaluation of EBS in long-term disposal systems in deep geologic environments with emphasis on the multi-barrier concept; (2) Evaluation of key parameters in the characterization of EBS performance; (3) Identification of key knowledge gaps and uncertainties; and (4) Evaluation of tools and modeling approaches for EBS processes and performance. The above topics will be evaluated through the analysis of the following: (1) Overview of EBS concepts for various NW disposal systems; (2) Natural and man-made analogs, room chemistry, hydrochemistry of deep subsurface environments, and EBS material stability in near-field environments; (3) Reactive Transport and Coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) processes in EBS; and (4) Thermal analysis toolkit, metallic barrier degradation mode survey, and development of a Disposal Systems Evaluation Framework (DSEF). This report will focus on the multi-barrier concept of EBS and variants of this type which in essence is the most adopted concept by various repository programs. Empasis is given mainly to the evaluation of EBS materials and processes through the analysis of published studies in the scientific literature of past and existing repository research programs. Tool evaluations are also emphasized, particularly on THCM processes and chemical equilibria. Although being an increasingly important aspect of NW disposition, short-term or interim storage of NW will be briefly discussed but not to the extent of the EBS issues relevant to disposal systems in deep geologic environments. Interim storage will be discussed in the report Evaluation of Storage Concepts FY10 Final Report (Weiner et al. 2010).
Nanomaterials and nanotechnology methods have been an integral part of international research over the past decade. Because many traditional water treatment technologies (e.g. membrane filtration, biofouling, scale inhibition, etc.) depend on nanoscale processes, it is reasonable to expect one outcome of nanotechnology research to be better, nano-engineered water treatment approaches. The most immediate, and possibly greatest, impact of nanotechnology on desalination methods will likely be the development of membranes engineered at the near-molecular level. Aquaporin proteins that channel water across cell membranes with very low energy inputs point to the potential for dramatically improved performance. Aquaporin-laced polymer membranes and aquaporin-mimicking carbon nanotubes and metal oxide membranes developed in the lab support this. A critical limitation to widespread use of nanoengineered desalination membranes will be their scalability to industrial fabrication processes. Subsequent, long-term improvements in nanoengineered membranes may result in self-healing membranes that ideally are (1) more resistant to biofouling, (2) have biocidal properties, and/or (3) selectively target trace contaminants.
We characterize the measured electric field-derivative (dE/dt) waveforms of lightning stepped-leader steps from three negative lightning flashes at distances of tens to hundreds of meters. Electromagnetic signatures of leader steps at such close distances have rarely been documented in previous literature. Individual leader-step three-dimensional locations are determined by a dE/dt TOA system. The leader-step field derivative is typically a bipolar pulse with a sharp initial half-cycle of the same polarity as that of the return stroke, followed by an opposite polarity overshoot that decays relatively slowly to background level. This overshoot increases in amplitude relative to the initial peak and becomes dominant as range decreases. The initial peak is often preceded by a "slow front," similar to the slow front that precedes the fast transition to peak in first return stroke dE/dt and E waveforms. The overall step-field waveform duration is typically less than 1 s. The mean initial peak of dE/dt, range-normalized to 100 km, is 7.4 V m -1 s-1 (standard deviation (S.D.), 3.7 V m-1 s-1, N = 103), the mean half-peak width is 33.5 ns (S.D., 11.9 ns, N = 69), and the mean 10-to-90% risetime is 43.6 ns (S.D., 24.2 ns, N = 69). From modeling, we determine the properties of the leader step currents which produced two typical measured field derivatives, and we use one of these currents to calculate predicted leader step E and dE/dt as a function of source range and height, the results being in good agreement with our observations. The two modeled current waveforms had maximum rates of current rise-to-peak near 100 kA s-1, peak currents in the 5-7 kA range, current half-peak widths of about 300 ns, and charge transfers of ∼3 mC. As part of the modeling, those currents were propagated upward at 1.5 × 108 m s-1, with their amplitudes decaying exponentially with a decay height constant of 25 m. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
A common purpose for performing an aerodynamic analysis is to calculate the resulting loads on a solid body immersed in the flow. Pressure or heat loads are often of interest for characterizing the structural integrity or thermal survivability of the structure. This document describes two algorithms for tightly coupling the mass, momentum and energy conservation equations for a compressible fluid and the energy conservation equation for heat transfer through a solid. We categorize both approaches as monolithically coupled, where the conservation equations for the fluid and the solid are assembled into a single residual vector. Newton's method is then used to solve the resulting nonlinear system of equations. These approaches are in contrast to other popular coupling schemes such as staggered coupling methods were each discipline is solved individually and loads are passed between as boundary conditions, and demonstrates the viability of the monolithic approach for aeroheating problems.
Operators interested in improving reliability should begin with a focus on the performance of the wind plant as a whole. To then understand the factors which drive individual turbine performance, which together comprise the plant performance, it is necessary to track a number of key indicators. Analysis of these key indicators can reveal the type, frequency, and cause of failures and will also identify their contributions to overall plant performance. The ideal approach to using data to drive good decisions includes first determining which critical decisions can be based on data. When those required decisions are understood, then the analysis required to inform those decisions can be identified, and finally the data to be collected in support of those analyses can be determined. Once equipped with high-quality data and analysis capabilities, the key steps to data-based decision making for reliability improvements are to isolate possible improvements, select the improvements with largest return on investment (ROI), implement the selected improvements, and finally to track their impact.
This Sandia supported research project evaluated the potential improvement that 'condensing' supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO{sub 2}) power cycles can have on the efficiency of Light Water Reactors (LWR). The analytical portion of research project identified that a S-CO{sub 2} 'condensing' re-compression power cycle with multiple stages of reheat can increase LWR power conversion efficiency from 33-34% to 37-39%. The experimental portion of the project used Sandia's S-CO{sub 2} research loop to show that the as designed radial compressor could 'pump' liquid CO{sub 2} and that the gas-cooler's could 'condense' CO{sub 2} even though both of these S-CO{sub 2} components were designed to operate on vapor phase S-CO{sub 2} near the critical point. There is potentially very high value to this research as it opens the possibility of increasing LWR power cycle efficiency, above the 33-34% range, while lowering the capital cost of the power plant because of the small size of the S-CO{sub 2} power system. In addition it provides a way to incrementally build advanced LWRs that are optimally designed to couple to S-CO{sub 2} power conversion systems to increase the power cycle efficiency to near 40%.
We discuss recent experiments for the characterization of our femtosecond purerotational CARS facility for observation of Raman transients in N 2 and atmospheric air. The construction of a simplified femtosecond four-wave mixing system with only a single laser source is presented. Pure-rotational Raman transients reveal well-ordered time-domain recurrence peaks associated with the near-uniform spacing of rotational Raman peaks in the spectral domain. Long-time, 100-ps duration observations of the transient Raman polarization are presented, and the observed transients are compared to simulated results. Fourier transformation of the transients reveals two distinct sets of beat frequencies. Simulation results for temperatures from 300-700 K are used to illustrate the temperature sensitivity of the time-domain transients and their Fourier-transform counterparts. And strategies for diagnostics are briefly discussed. These results are being utilized to develop gas-phase measurement strategies for temperature and species concentration.
In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.
Truncated Gaussian fields provide a flexible model for defining binary media with dispersed (as opposed to layered) inclusions. General properties of excursion sets on these truncated fields are coupled with a distance-based upscaling algorithm and approximations of point process theory to develop an estimation approach for effective conductivity in two-dimensions. Estimation of effective conductivity is derived directly from knowledge of the kernel size used to create the multiGaussian field, defined as the full-width at half maximum (FWHM), the truncation threshold and conductance values of the two modes. Therefore, instantiation of the multiGaussian field is not necessary for estimation of the effective conductance. The critical component of the effective medium approximation developed here is the mean distance between high conductivity inclusions. This mean distance is characterized as a function of the FWHM, the truncation threshold and the ratio of the two modal conductivities. Sensitivity of the resulting effective conductivity to this mean distance is examined for two levels of contrast in the two modal conductances and different FWHM sizes. Results demonstrate that the FWHM is a robust measure of mean travel distance in the background medium. The resulting effective conductivities are accurate when compared to numerical results and results obtained from effective media theory, distance-based upscaling and numerical simulation.
The objective of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (NEAMS Waste IPSC) is to provide an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive-waste storage facility or disposal repository. To meet this objective, NEAMS Waste IPSC M&S capabilities will be applied to challenging spatial domains, temporal domains, multiphysics couplings, and multiscale couplings. A strategic verification and validation (V&V) goal is to establish evidence-based metrics for the level of confidence in M&S codes and capabilities. Because it is economically impractical to apply the maximum V&V rigor to each and every M&S capability, M&S capabilities will be ranked for their impact on the performance assessments of various components of the repository systems. Those M&S capabilities with greater impact will require a greater level of confidence and a correspondingly greater investment in V&V. This report includes five major components: (1) a background summary of the NEAMS Waste IPSC to emphasize M&S challenges; (2) the conceptual foundation for verification, validation, and confidence assessment of NEAMS Waste IPSC M&S capabilities; (3) specifications for the planned verification, validation, and confidence-assessment practices; (4) specifications for the planned evidence information management system; and (5) a path forward for the incremental implementation of this V&V plan.
Power conversion systems for energy storage and other distributed energy resource applications are among the drivers of the important role that power electronics plays in providing reliable electricity. Wide band gap semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) will help increase the performance and efficiency of power electronic equipment while condition monitoring (CM) and prognostics and health management (PHM) will increase the operational availability of the equipment and thereby make it more cost effective. Voltage and/or temperature stress testing were performed on a number of SiC devices in order to accelerate failure modes and to identify measureable shifts in electrical characteristics which may provide early indication of those failures. Those shifts can be interpreted and modeled to provide prognostic signatures for use in CM and/or PHM. Such experiments will also lead to a deeper understanding of basic device physics and the degradation mechanisms behind failure.
Representative accident source terms patterned after the NUREG-1465 Source Term have been developed for high burnup fuel in BWRs and PWRs and for MOX fuel in a PWR with an ice-condenser containment. These source terms have been derived using nonparametric order statistics to develop distributions for the timing of radionuclide release during four accident phases and for release fractions of nine chemical classes of radionuclides as calculated with the MELCOR 1.8.5 accident analysis computer code. The accident phases are those defined in the NUREG-1465 Source Term - gap release, in-vessel release, ex-vessel release, and late in-vessel release. Important differences among the accident source terms derived here and the NUREG-1465 Source Term are not attributable to either fuel burnup or use of MOX fuel. Rather, differences among the source terms are due predominantly to improved understanding of the physics of core meltdown accidents. Heat losses from the degrading reactor core prolong the process of in-vessel release of radionuclides. Improved understanding of the chemistries of tellurium and cesium under reactor accidents changes the predicted behavior characteristics of these radioactive elements relative to what was assumed in the derivation of the NUREG-1465 Source Term. An additional radionuclide chemical class has been defined to account for release of cesium as cesium molybdate which enhances molybdenum release relative to other metallic fission products.
This report summarizes the state of salt repository science, reviews many of the technical issues pertaining to disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste in salt, and proposes several avenues for future science-based activities to further the technical basis for disposal in salt. There are extensive salt formations in the forty-eight contiguous states, and many of them may be worthy of consideration for nuclear waste disposal. The United States has extensive experience in salt repository sciences, including an operating facility for disposal of transuranic wastes. The scientific background for salt disposal including laboratory and field tests at ambient and elevated temperature, principles of salt behavior, potential for fracture damage and its mitigation, seal systems, chemical conditions, advanced modeling capabilities and near-future developments, performance assessment processes, and international collaboration are all discussed. The discussion of salt disposal issues is brought current, including a summary of recent international workshops dedicated to high-level waste disposal in salt. Lessons learned from Sandia National Laboratories' experience on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and the Yucca Mountain Project as well as related salt experience with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are applied in this assessment. Disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste in a suitable salt formation is attractive because the material is essentially impermeable, self-sealing, and thermally conductive. Conditions are chemically beneficial, and a significant experience base exists in understanding this environment. Within the period of institutional control, overburden pressure will seal fractures and provide a repository setting that limits radionuclide movement. A salt repository could potentially achieve total containment, with no releases to the environment in undisturbed scenarios for as long as the region is geologically stable. Much of the experience gained from United States repository development, such as seal system design, coupled process simulation, and application of performance assessment methodology, helps define a clear strategy for a heat-generating nuclear waste repository in salt.
Military training utilizing serious games or virtual worlds potentially generate data that can be mined to better understand how trainees learn in experiential exercises. Few data mining approaches for deployed military training games exist. Opportunities exist to collect and analyze these data, as well as to construct a full-history learner model. Outcomes discussed in the present document include results from a quasi-experimental research study on military game-based experiential learning, the deployment of an online game for training evidence collection, and results from a proof-of-concept pilot study on the development of individualized training vectors. This Lab Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project leveraged products within projects, such as Titan (Network Grand Challenge), Real-Time Feedback and Evaluation System, (America's Army Adaptive Thinking and Leadership, DARWARS Ambush! NK), and Dynamic Bayesian Networks to investigate whether machine learning capabilities could perform real-time, in-game similarity vectors of learner performance, toward adaptation of content delivery, and quantitative measurement of experiential learning.
Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Global Energy Systems team conducted a joint biofuels systems analysis project from March to November 2008. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of large-scale production of biofuels. 90 billion gallons of ethanol (the energy equivalent of approximately 60 billion gallons of gasoline) per year by 2030 was chosen as the book-end target to understand an aggressive deployment. Since previous studies have addressed the potential of biomass but not the supply chain rollout needed to achieve large production targets, the focus of this study was on a comprehensive systems understanding the evolution of the full supply chain and key interdependencies over time. The supply chain components examined in this study included agricultural land use changes, production of biomass feedstocks, storage and transportation of these feedstocks, construction of conversion plants, conversion of feedstocks to ethanol at these plants, transportation of ethanol and blending with gasoline, and distribution to retail outlets. To support this analysis, we developed a 'Seed to Station' system dynamics model (Biofuels Deployment Model - BDM) to explore the feasibility of meeting specified ethanol production targets. The focus of this report is water and its linkage to broad scale biofuel deployment.
Spatially resolved measurements of electric fields at electrochemical interfaces would be a critical step toward further understanding and modeling the detailed structure of electric double layers. The goal of this project was to perform proof-of-principle experiments to demonstrate the use of field-sensitive dyes for optical measurements of fields in electrochemical systems. A confocal microscope was developed that provides sensitive detection of the lifetime and high resolution spectra of excited fluorescence for dyes tethered to electrically conductive surfaces. Excited state lifetimes for the dyes were measured and found to be relatively unquenched when linked to indium tin oxide, but strongly quenched on gold surfaces. However, our fluorescence detection is sufficiently sensitive to measure spectra of submonolayer dye coatings even when the fluorescence was strongly quenched. Further work to create dye labeled interfaces on flat, uniform and durable substrates is necessary to make electric field measurements at interfaces using field sensitive dyes.
An ideal red phosphor for blue LEDs is one of the biggest challenges for the solid-state lighting industry. The appropriate phosphor material should have good adsorption and emission properties, good thermal and chemical stability, minimal thermal quenching, high quantum yield, and is preferably inexpensive and easy to fabricate. Tantalates possess many of these criteria, and lithium lanthanum tantalate materials warrant thorough investigation. In this study, we investigated red luminescence of two lithium lanthanum tantalates via three mechanisms: (1) Eu-doping, (2) Mn-doping and (3) self-activation of the tantalum polyhedra. Of these three mechanisms, Mn-doping proved to be the most promising. These materials exhibit two very broad adsorption peaks; one in the UV and one in the blue region of the spectrum; both can be exploited in LED applications. Furthermore, Mn-doping can be accomplished in two ways; ion-exchange and direct solid-state synthesis. One of the two lithium lanthanum tantalate phases investigated proved to be a superior host for Mn-luminescence, suggesting the crystal chemistry of the host lattice is important.
This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.
Classical molecular dynamics simulations were used to investigate the formation of water droplets on two kaolinite surfaces: the gibbsite-like surface which is hydrophilic and the silica surface which is hydrophobic. Two methods for calculating contact angles were investigated in detail. The method of Giovambattista et al. was successful in calculating contact angles on both surfaces that compare well to the experimental data available. This is the first time that contact angles have been calculated for kaolinite surfaces from molecular simulations. This preliminary study provides the groundwork for investigating contact angles for more complex systems involving multiple fluids (water, CO{sub 2}, oil) in contact with different minerals in the subsurface environment.
The potential to treat non-traditional water sources using power plant waste heat in conjunction with membrane distillation is assessed. Researchers and power plant designers continue to search for ways to use that waste heat from Rankine cycle power plants to recover water thereby reducing water net water consumption. Unfortunately, waste heat from a power plant is of poor quality. Membrane distillation (MD) systems may be a technology that can use the low temperature waste heat (<100 F) to treat water. By their nature, they operate at low temperature and usually low pressure. This study investigates the use of MD to recover water from typical power plants. It looks at recovery from three heat producing locations (boiler blow down, steam diverted from bleed streams, and the cooling water system) within a power plant, providing process sketches, heat and material balances and equipment sizing for recovery schemes using MD for each of these locations. It also provides insight into life cycle cost tradeoffs between power production and incremental capital costs.
This study assesses the energy and water use of saltcedar (or tamarisk) as biomass for biofuel production in a hypothetical sub-region in New Mexico. The baseline scenario consists of a rural stretch of the Middle Rio Grande River with 25% coverage of mature saltcedar that is removed and converted to biofuels. A manufacturing system life cycle consisting of harvesting, transportation, pyrolysis, and purification is constructed for calculating energy and water balances. On a dry short ton woody biomass basis, the total energy input is approximately 8.21 mmBTU/st. There is potential for 18.82 mmBTU/st of energy output from the baseline system. Of the extractable energy, approximately 61.1% consists of bio-oil, 20.3% bio-char, and 18.6% biogas. Water consumptive use by removal of tamarisk will not impact the existing rate of evapotranspiration. However, approximately 195 gal of water is needed per short ton of woody biomass for the conversion of biomass to biocrude, three-quarters of which is cooling water that can be recovered and recycled. The impact of salt presence is briefly assessed. Not accounted for in the baseline are high concentrations of Calcium, Sodium, and Sulfur ions in saltcedar woody biomass that can potentially shift the relative quantities of bio-char and bio-oil. This can be alleviated by a pre-wash step prior to the conversion step. More study is needed to account for the impact of salt presence on the overall energy and water balance.
The Power Systems L-CAT is a high-level dynamic model that calculates levelized production costs and tracks environmental performance for a range of electricity generation technologies: natural gas combined cycle (using either imported (LNGCC) or domestic natural gas (NGCC)), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC), existing pulverized coal (EXPC), nuclear, and wind. All of the fossil fuel technologies also include an option for including carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS). The model allows for quick sensitivity analysis on key technical and financial assumptions, such as: capital, O&M, and fuel costs; interest rates; construction time; heat rates; taxes; depreciation; and capacity factors. The fossil fuel options are based on detailed life cycle analysis reports conducted by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). For each of these technologies, NETL's detailed LCAs include consideration of five stages associated with energy production: raw material acquisition (RMA), raw material transport (RMT), energy conversion facility (ECF), product transportation and distribution (PT&D), and end user electricity consumption. The goal of the NETL studies is to compare existing and future fossil fuel technology options using a cradle-to-grave analysis. The NETL reports consider constant dollar levelized cost of delivered electricity, total plant costs, greenhouse gas emissions, criteria air pollutants, mercury (Hg) and ammonia (NH3) emissions, water withdrawal and consumption, and land use (acreage).
Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Global Energy Systems team conducted a joint biofuels systems analysis project from March to November 2008. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of large-scale production of biofuels. 90 billion gallons of ethanol (the energy equivalent of approximately 60 billion gallons of gasoline) per year by 2030 was chosen as the book-end target to understand an aggressive deployment. Since previous studies have addressed the potential of biomass but not the supply chain rollout needed to achieve large production targets, the focus of this study was on a comprehensive systems understanding the evolution of the full supply chain and key interdependencies over time. The supply chain components examined in this study included agricultural land use changes, production of biomass feedstocks, storage and transportation of these feedstocks, construction of conversion plants, conversion of feedstocks to ethanol at these plants, transportation of ethanol and blending with gasoline, and distribution to retail outlets. To support this analysis, we developed a 'Seed to Station' system dynamics model (Biofuels Deployment Model - BDM) to explore the feasibility of meeting specified ethanol production targets. The focus of this report is water and its linkage to broad scale biofuel deployment.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statistical analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.