Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. These results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.
Composite materials with different microstructural material symmetries are common in engineering applications where grain structure, alloying and particle/fiber packing are optimized via controlled manufacturing. In fact these microstructural tunings can be done throughout a part to achieve functional gradation and optimization at a structural level. To predict the performance of particular microstructural configuration and thereby overall performance, constitutive models of materials with microstructure are needed. In this work we provide neural network architectures that provide effective homogenization models of materials with anisotropic components. These models satisfy equivariance and material symmetry principles inherently through a combination of equivariant and tensor basis operations. We demonstrate them on datasets of stochastic volume elements with different textures and phases where the material undergoes elastic and plastic deformation, and show that the these network architectures provide significant performance improvements.
Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.
Computational singular perturbation (CSP) is a method to analyze dynamical systems. It targets the decoupling of fast and slow dynamics using an alternate linear expansion of the right-hand side of the governing equations based on eigenanalysis of the associated Jacobian matrix. This representation facilitates diagnostic analysis, detection and control of stiffness, and the development of simplified models. We have implemented CSP in a C++ open-source library CSPlib1 using the Kokkos2 parallel programming model to address portability across diverse heterogeneous computing platforms, i.e., multi/many-core CPUs and GPUs. We describe the CSPlib implementation and present its computational performance across different computing platforms using several test problems. Specifically, we test the CSPlib performance for a constant pressure ignition reactor model on different architectures, including IBM Power 9, Intel Xeon Skylake, and NVIDIA V100 GPU. The size of the chemical kinetic mechanism is varied in these tests. As expected, the Jacobian matrix evaluation, the eigensolution of the Jacobian matrix, and matrix inversion are the most expensive computational tasks. When considering the higher throughput characteristic of GPUs, GPUs performs better for small matrices with higher occupancy rate. CPUs gain more advantages from the higher performance of well-tuned and optimized linear algebra libraries such as OpenBLAS. Program summary: Program Title: CSPlib CPC Library link to program files: https://doi.org/10.17632/p9gb7z54sp.1 Developer's repository link: https://github.com/sandialabs/csplib Licensing provisions: BSD 2-clause Programming language: C++ Nature of problem: Dynamical systems can involve coupled processes with a wide range of time scales. The computational singular perturbation (CSP) method offers a reformulation of these systems which enables the use of dynamically-based diagnostic tools to better comprehend the dynamics by decoupling fast and slow processes. CSPlib is an open-source software library for analyzing general ordinary differential equation (ODE) and differential algebraic equation (DAE) systems, with specialized implementations for detailed chemical kinetic ODE/DAE systems. It relies on CSP for the analysis of these systems. CSPlib has been used in gas kinetic and heterogeneous catalytic kinetic models. Solution method: CSP analysis seeks a set of basis vectors to linearly decompose the right-hand side (RHS) of a dynamical system in a manner that decouples fast and slow processes. The CSP basis vectors are often well approximated with the right eigenvectors of the RHS Jacobian. And the left basis vectors are found by the inversion of the matrix, whose columns are the CSP basis vectors. Accordingly, the right and left CSP basis vectors are orthonormal. CSP defines mode amplitudes as the projections of the left basis vectors on the RHS; the time scales as the reciprocals of the RHS Jacobian eigenvalue magnitudes; and the CSP pointers, which are the element-wise multiplication of the transpose of the right CSP basis vectors with the left CSP basis vectors. For kinetic models that can be cast as the product of a generalized stoichiometric matrix and a rate of progress vector, CSP defines the participation index, which represents the contribution of a chemical reaction to each mode. Further, it defines the slow and fast importance indices, which describe the contribution of a chemical reaction to the slow and fast dynamics of a state variable, respectively. These indices are useful in diagnostic studies of dynamical systems and the construction of simplified models. Additional comments including restrictions and unusual features: CSPlib is a portable library that carries out many CSP analyses in parallel and can be used in modern high-performance platforms.
A multiple input multiple output (MIMO) power line communication (PLC) model for industrial facilities was developed that uses the physics of a bottom-up model but can be calibrated like top-down models. The PLC model considers 4-conductor cables (three-phase conductors and a ground conductor) and has several load types, including motor loads. The model is calibrated to data using mean field variational inference with a sensitivity analysis to reduce the parameter space. The results show that the inference method can accurately identify many of the model parameters, and the model is accurate even when the network is modified.
This article illustrates the use of unsupervised probabilistic learning techniques for the analysis of planetary reentry trajectories. A three-degree-of-freedom model was employed to generate optimal trajectories that comprise the training datasets. The algorithm first extracts the intrinsic structure in the data via a diffusion map approach. We find that data resides on manifolds of much lower dimensionality compared to the high-dimensional state space that describes each trajectory. Using the diffusion coordinates on the graph of training samples, the probabilistic framework subsequently augments the original data with samples that are statistically consistent with the original set. The augmented samples are then used to construct conditional statistics that are ultimately assembled in a path planning algorithm. In this framework, the controls are determined stage by stage during the flight to adapt to changing mission objectives in real-Time.
