Publications

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. Two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

A key challenge in inverse problems is the selection of sensors to gather the most effective data. In this paper, we consider the problem of inferring the initial condition to a linear dynamical system and develop an efficient control-theoretical approach for greedily selecting sensors. Our method employs a Galerkin projection to reduce the size of the inverse problem, resulting in a computationally efficient algorithm for sensor selection. As a byproduct of our algorithm, we obtain a preconditioner for the inverse problem that enables the rapid recovery of the initial condition. We analyze the theoretical performance of our greedy sensor selection algorithm as well as the performance of the associated preconditioner. Finally, we verify our theoretical results on various inverse problems involving partial differential equations.

This paper explores the concept of predictive maturity for non-linear concrete constitutive models employed in the computational prediction of the structural response of reinforced concrete structures to impact from free-flying missiles. Such concrete constitutive models are widely varied in complexity. Three constitutive models were utilized within the same finite element structural model to simulate the response of the IRIS III experiment. Each of the models were individually calibrated with available material testing data and also re-calibrated assuming limited availability of test data. When full calibration is possible, more sophisticated constitutive models appear to provide more predictive maturity; however, when this data is not available (e.g. for an existing structure where representative test specimens may not be available), the expected maturity is reduced. Indeed, this hypothesis is supported by the simulations that indicate good agreement with measured experimental response quantities from the IRIS III tests with complex constitutive models and full calibration, and accordingly poor predictions when less complex models are used or when the more sophisticated models are poorly calibrated. Thus, predictions of structural response where complete material testing data is not obtainable should be understood as less predictive.

Drinking water infrastructure in urban settings is increasingly affected by population growth and disruptions like extreme weather events. This study explores how the integration of direct wastewater reuse can help to maintain drinking water service when the system is compromised.

A major hurdle in utilizing carbon dioxide (CO2) lies in separating it from industrial flue gas mixtures and finding suitable storage methods that enable its application in various industries. To address this issue, we utilized a combination of molecular dynamics simulations and experiments to investigate the behavior of CO2 in common room-temperature ionic liquids (RTIL) when in contact with aqueous interfaces. Our investigation of RTILs, [EMIM][TFSI] and [OMIM][TFSI], and their interaction with a pure water layer mimics the environment of a previously developed ultrathin enzymatic liquid membrane for CO2 separation. We analyzed diffusion constants and viscosity, which reveals that CO2 molecules exhibit faster mobility within the selected ILs compared to what would be predicted solely based on the viscosity of the liquids using the standard Einstein-Stokes relation. Moreover, we calculated the free energy of translocation for various species across the aqueous-IL interface, including CO2 and HCO3-. Free energy profiles demonstrate that CO2 exhibits a more favorable partitioning behavior in the RTILs compared to that in pure water, while a significant barrier hinders the movement of HCO3- from the aqueous layer. Experimental measurement of the CO2 transport in the RTILs corroborates the model. These findings strongly suggest that hydrophobic RTILs could serve as a promising option for selectively transporting CO2 from aqueous media and concentrating it as a preliminary step toward storage.

This article characterises the effects of cathode photoemission leading to electrical discharges in an argon gas. We perform breakdown experiments under pulsed laser illumination of a flat cathode and observe Townsend to glow discharge transitions. The breakdown process is recorded by high-speed imaging, and time-dependent voltage and current across the electrode gap are measured for different reduced electric fields and laser intensities. We employ a 0D transient discharge model to interpret the experimental measurements. The fitted values of transferred photoelectron charge are compared with calculations from a quantum model of photoemission. The breakdown voltage is found to be lower with photoemission than without. When the applied voltage is insufficient for ion-induced secondary electron emission to sustain the plasma, laser driven photoemission can still create a breakdown where a sheath (i.e. a region near the electrode surfaces consisting of positive ions and neutrals) is formed. This photoemission induced plasma persists and decays on a much longer time scale ( ∼ 10 s μ s) than the laser pulse length ( 30 ps). The effects of different applied voltages and laser energies on the breakdown voltage and current waveforms are investigated. The discharge model can accurately predict the measured breakdown voltage curves, despite the existence of discrepancy in quantitatively describing the transient discharge current and voltage waveforms.

Here this study investigates the nonlinear frequency response of a shaft-bearing assembly with vibro-impacts occurring at the bearing clearances. The formation of nonlinear behavior as system parameters change is examined, along with the effects of asymmetries in the nominal, inherently symmetric system. The primary effect of increasing the forcing magnitude or decreasing the contact gap sizes is the formation of grazing-induced chaotic solution branches occurring over a wide frequency range near each system resonance. The system's nominal setup has very hard contact stiffness and shows no evidence of isolas or superharmonic resonances over the frequency ranges of interest. Moderate contact stiffnesses cause symmetry breaking and introduce superharmonic resonance branches of primary resonances. Even if some primary resonances are not present due to the system's inherent symmetry, their superharmonic resonances still manifest. Branches of quasiperiodic isolas (isolated resonance branches) are also discovered, along with a cloud of isolas near a high-frequency resonance. Parameter asymmetries are found to produce a few significant changes in behavior: asymmetric linear stiffness, contact stiffness, and gap size could affect the behavior of primary resonant frequencies and isolas.

A two-step solar thermochemical looping cycle based on Co₃Mo₃N/Co₆Mo₆N reduction/nitridation reactions offers a pathway for green NH₃ production that utilizes concentrated solar irradiation, H₂O, and air as feedstocks. The NH₃ production cycle steps both derive process heat from concentrated solar irradiation and encompass 1) the reduction of Co₃Mo₃N in H₂ to Co₆Mo₆N and NH₃; and 2) nitridation of Co₆Mo₆N to Co₃Mo₃N with N₂. Co₃Mo₃N reduction/nitridation reactions are examined at different H₂ and/or N₂ partial pressures and temperatures. NH₃ production is quantified in situ using liquid conductivity measurements coupled with mass spectrometry (MS). Solid-state characterization is performed to identify a surface oxygen layer that necessitates the addition of H₂ during cycling to prevent surface oxidation by trace amounts of O₂. H₂ concentrations of > 5% H₂/Ar and temperatures >500 °C are required to reduce Co₃Mo₃N to Co₆Mo₆N and form NH₃ at 1 bar. Complete regeneration of Co₃Mo₃N from Co₆Mo₆N is achieved at conditions of 700 °C under 25–75% H₂/N₂. H₂ pressure-swings are observed to increase NH₃ production during Co₃Mo₃N reduction. In conclusion, the results represent the first comprehensive characterization of and definitive non-catalytic production of NH₃ via chemical looping with metal nitrides and provide insights for technology development.

Aqueous electrolytes composed of 0.1 M zinc bis-(trifluoromethyl-sulfonyl)-imide (Zn-(TFSI)₂) and acetonitrile (ACN) were studied using combined experimental and simulation techniques. The electrolyte was found to be electrochemically stable when the ACN V% is higher than 74.4. In addition, it was found that the ionic conductivity of the mixed solvent electrolytes changes as a function of ACN composition, and a maximum was observed at 91.7 V% of ACN although the salt concentration is the same. This behavior was qualitatively reproduced by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Detailed analyses based on experiments and MD simulations show that at high ACN composition the water network existing in the high water composition solutions breaks. As a result, the screening effect of the solvent weakens and the correlation among ions increases, which causes a decrease in ionic conductivity at high ACN V%. Furthermore, this study provides a fundamental understanding of this complex mixed solvent electrolyte system.

Before residential photovoltaic (PV) systems are interconnected with the grid, various planning and impact studies are conducted on detailed models of the system to ensure safety and reliability are maintained. However, these model-based analyses can be time-consuming and error-prone, representing a potential bottleneck as the pace of PV installations accelerates. Data-driven tools and analyses provide an alternate pathway to supplement or replace their model-based counterparts. In this article, a data-driven algorithm is presented for assessing the thermal limitations of PV interconnections. Using input data from residential smart meters, and without any grid models or topology information, the algorithm can determine the nameplate capacity of the service transformer supplying those customers. The algorithm was tested on multiple datasets and predicted service transformer capacity with >98% accuracy, regardless of existing PV installations. This algorithm has various applications from model-free thermal impact analysis for hosting capacity studies to error detection and calibration of existing grid models.

Single-molecule stretching experiments are widely utilized within the fields of physics and chemistry to characterize the mechanics of individual bonds or molecules, as well as chemical reactions. Analytic relations describing these experiments are valuable, and these relations can be obtained through the statistical thermodynamics of idealized model systems representing the experiments. Since the specific thermodynamic ensembles manifested by the experiments affect the outcome, primarily for small molecules, the stretching device must be included in the idealized model system. Though the model for the stretched molecule might be exactly solvable, including the device in the model often prevents analytic solutions. In the limit of large or small device stiffness, the isometric or isotensional ensembles can provide effective approximations, but the device effects are missing. Here a dual set of asymptotically correct statistical thermodynamic theories are applied to develop accurate approximations for the full model system that includes both the molecule and the device. The asymptotic theories are first demonstrated to be accurate using the freely jointed chain model and then using molecular dynamics calculations of a single polyethylene chain.

An interpretable machine learning method, physics-informed genetic programming-based symbolic regression (P-GPSR), is integrated into a continuum thermodynamic approach to developing constitutive models. The proposed strategy for combining a thermodynamic analysis with P-GPSR is demonstrated by generating a yield function for an idealized material with voids, i.e., the Gurson yield function. First, a thermodynamic-based analysis is used to derive model requirements that are exploited in a custom P-GPSR implementation as fitness criteria or are strongly enforced in the solution. The P-GPSR implementation improved accuracy, generalizability, and training time compared to the same GPSR code without physics-informed fitness criteria. The yield function generated through the P-GPSR framework is in the form of a composite function that describes a class of materials and is characteristically more interpretable than GPSR-derived equations. The physical significance of the input functions learned by P-GPSR within the composite function is acquired from the thermodynamic analysis. Fundamental explanations of why the implemented P-GPSR capabilities improve results over a conventional GPSR algorithm are provided.

Perspectives for understanding the brain vary across disciplines and this has challenged our ability to describe the brain’s functions. In this comment, we discuss how emerging theoretical computing frameworks that bridge top-down algorithm and bottom-up physics approaches may be ideally suited for guiding the development of neural computing technologies such as neuromorphic hardware and artificial intelligence. Furthermore, we discuss how this balanced perspective may be necessary to incorporate the neurobiological details that are critical for describing the neural computational disruptions within mental health and neurological disorders.

Real-time time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is presently the most accurate available method for computing electronic stopping powers from first principles. However, obtaining application-relevant results often involves either costly averages over multiple calculations or ad hoc selection of a representative ion trajectory. We consider a broadly applicable, quantitative metric for evaluating and optimizing trajectories in this context. This methodology enables rigorous analysis of the failure modes of various common trajectory choices in crystalline materials. Although randomly selecting trajectories is common practice in stopping power calculations in solids, we show that nearly 30% of random trajectories in an FCC aluminum crystal will not representatively sample the material over the time and length scales feasibly simulated with TDDFT, and unrepresentative choices incur errors of up to 60%. We also show that finite-size effects depend on ion trajectory via “ouroboros” effects beyond the prevailing plasmon-based interpretation, and we propose a cost-reducing scheme to obtain converged results even when expensive core-electron contributions preclude large supercells. This work helps to mitigate poorly controlled approximations in first-principles stopping power calculations, allowing 1–2 order of magnitude cost reductions for obtaining representatively averaged and converged results.

A reduced order, nonlocal model is proposed for the contact force between initially spherical particles under compression. The model in effect provides the normal component of the interaction force between elements in the discrete element method (DEM). It is applicable to high relative density and large stress in powder compaction. It takes into account the mutual interaction between multiple points of contact, in contrast to the usual assumption in DEM of pair interactions. The mathematical form of the model is derived from a variational formulation that leads to the momentum balance for the forces on each grain. The model is calibrated mainly using detailed three dimensional peridynamic simulations of single grains under compressive loading by rigid plates that move radially with prescribed velocity. This calibration takes into account the large deformation and fracture of the grains. The interaction model also includes terms for the unloading behavior and adhesion. As validation, the model is applied to test data on the compaction of microcrystalline cellulose bulk powder.

Efficient conversion of pentose sugars remains a significant barrier to the replacement of petroleum-derived chemicals with plant biomass-derived bioproducts. While the oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides (also known as Rhodotorula toruloides) has a relatively robust native metabolism of pentose sugars compared to other wild yeasts, faster assimilation of those sugars will be required for industrial utilization of pentoses. To increase the rate of pentose assimilation in R. toruloides, we leveraged previously reported high-throughput fitness data to identify potential regulators of pentose catabolism. Two genes were selected for further investigation, a putative transcription factor (RTO4_12978, Pnt1) and a homolog of a glucose transceptor involved in carbon catabolite repression (RTO4_11990). Overexpression of Pnt1 increased the specific growth rate approximately twofold early in cultures on xylose and increased the maximum specific growth by 18% while decreasing accumulation of arabitol and xylitol in fast-growing cultures. Improved growth dynamics on xylose translated to a 120% increase in the overall rate of xylose conversion to fatty alcohols in batch culture. Proteomic analysis confirmed that Pnt1 is a major regulator of pentose catabolism in R. toruloides. Deletion of RTO4_11990 increased the growth rate on xylose, but did not relieve carbon catabolite repression in the presence of glucose. Carbon catabolite repression signaling networks remain poorly characterized in R. toruloides and likely comprise a different set of proteins than those mainly characterized in ascomycete fungi.

Across many industries and engineering disciplines, systems of components are designed and deployed into their operational environments. It is the desire of the engineer to be able to predict if the component or system will survive its operational environment or if the component will fail due to mechanical stresses. One method to determine if the component will survive the operational environment is to expose the component to a simulation of the environment in a laboratory. One difficulty in executing such a test is that the component may not have the same boundary condition in both the laboratory and operational configurations. This paper presents a novel method of quantifying the error in the modal domain that occurs from the impedance difference between the laboratory test fixture and the operational configuration. The error is calculated from the projection from one mode shape space to the other, and the error is in terms of each mode of the operational configuration. The error provides insight into the effectiveness of the test fixture with respect to the ability to recreate the individual mode shapes of the operational configuration. A case study is presented to show the error in the modal projection between two configurations is a lower limit for the error that can be achieved by a laboratory test.

Emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens present a unique challenge for anti-viral therapeutic development. Anti-viral approaches with high flexibility and rapid production times are essential for combating these high-pandemic risk viruses. CRISPR-Cas technologies have been extensively repurposed to treat a variety of diseases, with recent work expanding into potential applications against viral infections. However, delivery still presents a major challenge for these technologies. Lipid-coated mesoporous silica nanoparticles (LCMSNs) offer an attractive delivery vehicle for a variety of cargos due to their high biocompatibility, tractable synthesis, and amenability to chemical functionalization. Here, we report the use of LCMSNs to deliver CRISPR-Cas9 ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) that target the Niemann–Pick disease type C1 gene, an essential host factor required for entry of the high-pandemic risk pathogen Ebola virus, demonstrating an efficient reduction in viral infection. We further highlight successful in vivo delivery of the RNP-LCMSN platform to the mouse liver via systemic administration.

Programmable photonic integrated circuits (PICs) are emerging as powerful tools for control of light, with applications in quantum information processing, optical range finding, and artificial intelligence. Low-power implementations of these PICs involve micromechanical structures driven capacitively or piezoelectrically but are often limited in modulation bandwidth by mechanical resonances and high operating voltages. Here we introduce a synchronous, micromechanically resonant design architecture for programmable PICs and a proof-of-principle 1×8 photonic switch using piezoelectric optical phase shifters. Our design purposefully exploits high-frequency mechanical resonances and optically broadband components for larger modulation responses on the order of the mechanical quality factor Q m while maintaining fast switching speeds. We experimentally show switching cycles of all 8 channels spaced by approximately 11 ns and operating at 4.6 dB average modulation enhancement. Future advances in micromechanical devices with high Qm, which can exceed 10000, should enable an improved series of low-voltage and high-speed programmable PICs.

Quantum cascade lasers (QCLs) have emerged as promising candidates for generating chip-scale frequency combs in mid-infrared and terahertz wavelengths. In this work, we demonstrate frequency comb formation in ring terahertz QCLs using the injection of light from a distributed feedback (DFB) laser. The DFB design frequency is chosen to match the modes of the ring cavity (near 3.3 THz), and light from the DFB is injected into the ring QCL via a bus waveguide. By controlling the power and frequency of the optical injection, we show that combs can be selectively formed and controlled in the ring cavity. Numerical modeling suggests that this comb is primarily frequency-modulated in character, with the injection serving to trigger comb formation. We also show that the ring can be used as a filter to control the output of the DFB QCL, potentially being of interest in terahertz photonic integrated circuits. Our work demonstrates that waveguide couplers are a compelling approach for injecting and extracting radiation from ring terahertz combs and offer exciting possibilities for the generation of new comb states in terahertz, such as frequency-modulated waves, solitons, and more.

Lifetime-encoded materials are particularly attractive as optical tags, however examples are rare and hindered in practical application by complex interrogation methods. Here, we demonstrate a design strategy towards multiplexed, lifetime-encoded tags via engineering intermetallic energy transfer in a family of heterometallic rare-earth metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). The MOFs are derived from a combination of a high-energy donor (Eu), a low-energy acceptor (Yb) and an optically inactive ion (Gd) with the 1,2,4,5 tetrakis(4-carboxyphenyl) benzene (TCPB) organic linker. Precise manipulation of the luminescence decay dynamics over a wide microsecond regime is achieved via control over metal distribution in these systems. Demonstration of this platform’s relevance as a tag is attained via a dynamic double encoding method that uses the braille alphabet, and by incorporation into photocurable inks patterned on glass and interrogated via digital high-speed imaging. This study reveals true orthogonality in encoding using independently variable lifetime and composition, and highlights the utility of this design strategy, combining facile synthesis and interrogation with complex optical properties.

To understand the role of the grain boundary (GB) in plasticity at small scale, a concurrently coupled mesoscale plasticity model was developed to simulate micro-bending of bicrystalline micron-sized beams. By coupling dislocation dynamics (DD) with a finite element model (FEM), a novel defect dynamics model provides the means to investigate intricate interactions between dislocations and GBs under various loading conditions. Our simulations of micro-bending agree well with corresponding micro-bending experiments, and they show that mechanical response of bicrystals could have not only hardening but also softening depending on the characters of the GB. In addition, changing the location of the GB in the microbeams results in different mechanical responses; GBs located at the neutral plane show softening compared to single crystals, while inclined GBs located halfway along the length of the beam show little effect. Simulation results could provide a clear picture on detailed dislocation-GB interactions, and quantitative resolved shear stress analysis supplemented by dislocation density distribution is used to analyze the mechanical response of bicrystalline samples.

Interface resistance has become a significant bottleneck for solid-state batteries (SSBs). Most studies of interface resistance have focused on extrinsic mechanisms such as interface reactions and imperfect contact between electrodes and solid electrolytes. Interface potentials are an important intrinsic mechanism that is often ignored. Here, we highlight Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) as a tool to image the local potential at interfaces inside SSBs, examining the existing literature and discussing challenges in interpretation. Drawing analogies with electron transport in metal/semiconductor interfaces, we showcase a formalism that predicts intrinsic ionic resistance based on the properties of the contacting phases, and we emphasize that future battery designs should start from material pairs with low intrinsic resistance. We conclude by outlining future directions in the study of interface potentials through both theory and experiment. Graphic abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

Pseudomonads are ubiquitous bacteria with importance in medicine, soil, agriculture, and biomanufacturing. We report a novel Pseudomonas putida phage, MiCath, which is the first known phage infecting P. putida S12, a strain increasingly used as a synthetic biology chassis. MiCath was isolated from garden soil under a tomato plant using P. putida S12 as a host and was also found to infect four other P. putida strains. MiCath has a ~ 61 kbp double-stranded DNA genome which encodes 97 predicted open reading frames (ORFs); functions could only be predicted for 48 ORFs using comparative genomics. Functions include structural phage proteins, other common phage proteins (e.g., terminase), a queuosine gene cassette, a cas4 exonuclease, and an endosialidase. Restriction digestion analysis suggests the queuosine gene cassette encodes a pathway capable of modification of guanine residues. When compared to other phage genomes, MiCath shares at most 74% nucleotide identity over 2% of the genome with any sequenced phage. Overall, MiCath is a novel phage with no close relatives, encoding many unique gene products.

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

Future machine learning strategies for materials process optimization will likely replace human capital-intensive artisan research with autonomous and/or accelerated approaches. Such automation enables accelerated multimodal characterization that simultaneously minimizes human errors, lowers costs, enhances statistical sampling, and allows scientists to allocate their time to critical thinking instead of repetitive manual tasks. Previous acceleration efforts to synthesize and evaluate materials have often employed elaborate robotic self-driving laboratories or used specialized strategies that are difficult to generalize. Herein we describe an implemented workflow for accelerating the multimodal characterization of a combinatorial set of 915 electroplated Ni and Ni–Fe thin films resulting in a data cube with over 160,000 individual data files. Our acceleration strategies do not require manufacturing-scale resources and are thus amenable to typical materials research facilities in academic, government, or commercial laboratories. The workflow demonstrated the acceleration of six characterization modalities: optical microscopy, laser profilometry, X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence, nanoindentation, and tribological (friction and wear) testing, each with speedup factors ranging from 13–46x. In addition, automated data upload to a repository using FAIR data principles was accelerated by 64x.

Hierarchical optimization modeling in an algebraic modeling environment facilitates construction of large models with many interchangeable sub-models. However, for dynamic simulation and optimization applications, a flattened structure that preserves time indexing is preferred. To convert from a structure that facilitates model construction to a structure that facilitates dynamic optimization, the concept of reshaping an optimization model is introduced along with the recently developed utilities in the Pyomo algebraic modeling environment that make this possible. The application of these utilities to model predictive control simulations and partial differential equation (PDE) discretization stability analysis is discussed, and two challenging nonlinear model predictive control case studies are presented to demonstrate the advantages of this approach.

Access to accurate solar resource data is critical for numerous applications, including estimating the yield of solar energy systems, developing radiation models, and validating irradiance datasets. However, lack of standardization in data formats and access interfaces across providers constitutes a major barrier to entry for new users. pvlib python's iotools subpackage aims to solve this issue by providing standardized Python functions for reading local files and retrieving data from external providers. All functions follow a uniform pattern and return convenient data outputs, allowing users to seamlessly switch between data providers and explore alternative datasets. The pvlib package is community-developed on GitHub: https://github.com/pvlib/pvlib-python. As of pvlib python version 0.9.5, the iotools subpackage supports 12 different datasets, including ground measurement, reanalysis, and satellite-derived irradiance data. The supported ground measurement networks include the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), NREL MIDC, SRML, SOLRAD, SURFRAD, and the US Climate Reference Network (CRN). Additionally, satellite-derived and reanalysis irradiance data from the following sources are supported: PVGIS (SARAH & ERA5), NSRDB PSM3, and CAMS Radiation Service (including McClear clear-sky irradiance).

Recent developments integrating micromechanics and neural networks offer promising paths for rapid predictions of the response of heterogeneous materials with similar accuracy as direct numerical simulations. The deep material network is one such approaches, featuring a multi-layer network and micromechanics building blocks trained on anisotropic linear elastic properties. Once trained, the network acts as a reduced-order model, which can extrapolate the material’s behavior to more general constitutive laws, including nonlinear behaviors, without the need to be retrained. However, current training methods initialize network parameters randomly, incurring inevitable training and calibration errors. Here, we introduce a way to visualize the network parameters as an analogous unit cell and use this visualization to “quilt” patches of shallower networks to initialize deeper networks for a recursive training strategy. The result is an improvement in the accuracy and calibration performance of the network and an intuitive visual representation of the network for better explainability.

The properties of electrons in matter are of fundamental importance. They give rise to virtually all material properties and determine the physics at play in objects ranging from semiconductor devices to the interior of giant gas planets. Modeling and simulation of such diverse applications rely primarily on density functional theory (DFT), which has become the principal method for predicting the electronic structure of matter. While DFT calculations have proven to be very useful, their computational scaling limits them to small systems. We have developed a machine learning framework for predicting the electronic structure on any length scale. It shows up to three orders of magnitude speedup on systems where DFT is tractable and, more importantly, enables predictions on scales where DFT calculations are infeasible. Our work demonstrates how machine learning circumvents a long-standing computational bottleneck and advances materials science to frontiers intractable with any current solutions.

System provenance forensic analysis has been studied by a large body of research work. This area needs fine granularity data such as system calls along with event fields to track the dependencies of events. While prior work on security datasets has been proposed, we found a useful dataset of realistic attacks and details that are needed for high-quality provenance tracking is lacking. We created a new dataset of eleven vulnerable cases for system forensic analysis. It includes the full details of system calls including syscall parameters. Realistic attack scenarios with real software vulnerabilities and exploits are used. For each case, we created two sets of benign and adversary scenarios which are manually labeled for supervised machine-learning analysis. In addition, we present an algorithm to improve the data quality in the system provenance forensic analysis. We demonstrate the details of the dataset events and dependency analysis of our dataset cases.

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. This paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.

We report on the substantial advancement of long wavelength InAs-based interband cascade lasers (ICLs) utilizing advanced waveguides formed from hybrid cladding layers and targeting the 10-12μm wavelength region. Modifications in the hole injector have improved carrier transport in these ICLs, resulting in significantly reduced threshold voltages (Vth) as low as 3.62 V at 80 K. Consequently, much higher voltage efficiencies were observed, peaking at about 73% at 10.3μm and allowing for large output powers of more than 100 mW/facet. Also, low threshold current densities (Jth) of 8.8 A/cm2 in cw mode and 7.6 A/cm2 in pulsed mode near 10μm were observed; a result of adjustments in the GaInSb hole well composition intended to reduce the overall strain accumulation in the ICL. Furthermore, an ICL from the second wafer operating at a longer wavelength achieved a peak voltage efficiency of 57% at 11.7μm, with a peak output power of more than 27 mW/facet. This ICL went on to lase beyond 12μm in both cw and pulsed modes, representing a new milestone in long wavelength coverage for ICLs with the standard W-QW active region.

The fraction of tritium converted to the water form in a fire scenario is one of the metrics of greatest interest for radiological safety assessments. The conversion fraction is one of the prime variables contributing to the hazard assessment. This paper presents measurements of oxidation rates for the non-radioactive hydrogen isotopes (protium and deuterium) at sub-flammable concentrations that are typical of many of the most likely tritium release scenarios. These measurements are fit to a simplified 1-step kinetic rate expression, and the isotopic trends for protium and deuterium are extrapolated to produce a model appropriate for tritium. The effects of the new kinetic models are evaluated via CFD simulations of an ISO-9705 standard room fire that includes a trace release of hydrogen isotope (tritium), illustrating the high importance of the correct (measurement-based) kinetics to the outcome of the simulated conversion.

R. toruloides is an oleaginous yeast, with diverse metabolic capacities and high tolerance for inhibitory compounds abundant in plant biomass hydrolysates. While R. toruloides grows on several pentose sugars and alcohols, further engineering of the native pathway is required for efficient conversion of biomass-derived sugars to higher value bioproducts. A previous high-throughput study inferred that R. toruloides possesses a non-canonical l-arabinose and d-xylose metabolism proceeding through d-arabitol and d-ribulose. In this study, we present a combination of genetic and metabolite data that refine and extend that model. Chiral separations definitively illustrate that d-arabitol is the enantiomer that accumulates under pentose metabolism. Deletion of putative d-arabitol-2-dehydrogenase (RTO4_9990) results in > 75% conversion of d-xylose to d-arabitol, and is growth-complemented on pentoses by heterologous xylulose kinase expression. Deletion of putative d-ribulose kinase (RTO4_14368) arrests all growth on any pentose tested. Analysis of several pentose dehydrogenase mutants elucidates a complex pathway with multiple enzymes mediating multiple different reactions in differing combinations, from which we also inferred a putative l-ribulose utilization pathway. Our results suggest that we have identified enzymes responsible for the majority of pathway flux, with additional unknown enzymes providing accessory activity at multiple steps. Further biochemical characterization of the enzymes described here will enable a more complete and quantitative understanding of R. toruloides pentose metabolism. These findings add to a growing understanding of the diversity and complexity of microbial pentose metabolism.

Computer vision models have great potential as tools for international nuclear safeguards verification activities, but off-the-shelf models require fine-tuning through transfer learning to detect relevant objects. Because open-source examples of safeguards-relevant objects are rare, and to evaluate the potential of synthetic training data for computer vision, we present the Limbo dataset. Limbo includes both real and computer-generated images of uranium hexafluoride containers for training computer vision models. We generated these images iteratively based on results from data validation experiments that are detailed here. The findings from these experiments are applicable both for the safeguards community and the broader community of computer vision research using synthetic data.

Behind-the-meter (BTM) battery energy storage systems (BESS) are undergoing rapid deployment. Simple equations to estimate the installed cost of BTM BESS are often necessary when a rigorous, bottom-up cost estimate is not available or not appropriate, in applications such as energy system modeling, informing a BESS sizing decision, and cost benchmarking. Drawing on project-level data from California, I estimate several predictive regression models of the installed cost of a BTM BESS as a function of energy capacity and power capacity. The models are evaluated for in-sample goodness-of-fit and out-of-sample predictive accuracy. The results of these analyses indicate stronger empirical support for models with natural log transformations of installed cost, energy, and power as compared against widely-used models that posit a linear relationship among the untransformed versions of these variables. Building on these results, I present a logarithmic model that can predict installed cost conditional on energy capacity, power capacity, AC or DC coupling with distributed generation, customer sector, and local wages for electricians. I document how the model can be easily extrapolated to future years, either with forecasts from other sources or by re-estimating the parameters with the latest data.

This report summarizes the water inputs associated with four technologies playing diverse roles in energy transitions: hydrogen, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind, and batteries. Information in this report is drawn from multiple sources, including peer-reviewed literature, industry and international agency reports, EcoInvent life cycle inventory database, and subject matter expert (SME) consultations. Where possible, insights that characterized water requirements for specific stages of the technology development (e.g., operations, manufacturing, and mining) were prioritized over broader cradle-to-gate assessment values. Furthermore, both direct and indirect water requirements (i.e., associated with associated energy inputs) were considered in this literature review.

The 2-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study analyzed stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico’s clean energy future. Outputs relating to electricity demand modeling were partially informed by estimates of electric vehicle adoption across all classes of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and the ensuing charging loads. To create these estimates, the team developed a transportation model for MHDVs in Puerto Rico to estimate the amount and geospatial distribution of energy used. Charging schedules for the different end uses of MHDVs were then used to construct electric load shapes assuming a portion of those vehicles would be replaced by battery electric counterparts. Study results showed that, by 2050, electric vehicles may constitute roughly 50% of the MHDV population in Puerto Rico. The resulting electrical demand curve attributable to MHDV charging showed that, for solar energy-based electrical systems with limited energy storage, this demand may create challenges unless appropriately managed either on the demand or supply side.

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2-(salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics.

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Redox flow batteries (RFBs) that incorporate solid energy-storing materials are attractive for high-capacity grid-scale energy storage due to their markedly higher theoretical energy densities compared to their fully liquid counterparts. However, this promise of higher energy density comes at the expense of rate capability. In this work we exploit a ZnO nanorod-decorated Ni foam scaffold to create a high surface area Li metal anode capable of rates up to 10 mA cm−2, a 10× improvement over traditional planar designs. The ZnO nanorods enhance Li metal wettability and promote uniform Li nucleation, allowing the RFB to be initially operated with a prelithiated (charged) anode, or with a safety-conscious, Li-less, fully discharged anode. 5 mgS cm−1 were cycled using a mediated S cathode, whereby redox mediators help oxidize and reduce solid S particles. At 2.4 mgS cm−2 and 10 mA cm−2, the RFB becomes limited by the mediation of solid S. Nevertheless, a respectable energy density of 20.3 Wh L−1 is demonstrated, allowing considerable increase if the S mediation rate can be further improved. Lessons learned here may be broadly applied to RFBs with alkali metal anodes, offering an avenue for safe, dense, grid-scale energy storage.

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There is currently very limited research into how experts analyze and assess potentially fraudulent content in their expertise areas, and most research within the disinformation space involves very limited text samples (e.g., news headlines). The overarching goal of the present study was to explore how an individual’s psychological profile and the linguistic features in text might influence an expert’s ability to discern disinformation/fraudulent content in academic journal articles. At a high level, the current design tasked experts with reading journal articles from their area of expertise and indicating if they thought an article was deceptive or not. Half the articles they read were journal papers that had been retracted due to academic fraud. Demographic and psychological inventory data collected on the participants was combined with performance data to generate insights about individual expert susceptibility to deception. Our data show that our population of experts were unable to reliably detect deception in formal technical writing. Several psychological dimensions such as comfort with uncertainty and intellectual humility may provide some protection against deception. This work informs our understanding of expert susceptibility to potentially fraudulent content within official, technical information and can be used to inform future mitigative efforts and provide a building block for future disinformation work.

Achieving robust and efficient drilling is a critical part of reducing the cost of geothermal energy exploration and extraction. Drilling performance is often evaluated using one or more of three key metrics: depth of cut (DOC), rate of penetration (ROP), and mechanical specific energy (MSE). All three of these quantities are related to each other. DOC refers to the depth a bit penetrates into rock during drilling. This is an important quantity for estimating bit behavior. ROP is the simply the DOC multiplied by the rotational rate, and represents how quickly the drill bit is advancing through the ground. ROP is often the parameter used for drilling control and optimization. Finally, MSE provides insight into drilling efficiency and rock type. MSE calculations rely on ROP, drilling force, and drilling torque. Surface-based sensors at the top of the drill are often used to measure all these quantities. However, top-hole measurements can deviate substantially from the behavior at the bit due to lag, vibrations, and friction. Therefore, relying only on top-hole information can lead to suboptimal drilling control. In this work, we describe recent progress towards estimating ROP, DOC, and MSE using down-hole sensing. We assume down-hole measurements of torque, weight-on-bit (WOB). Our hypothesis is that these measurements can provide more rapid and accurate measures of drilling performance. We show how a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) machine learning algorithm can provide rapid and accurate performance when evaluated on experimental data taken from Sandia’s Hard Rock Drilling Facility. In addition, we implement our algorithms on an embedded system intended to emulate a bottom-hole-assembly for sensing and estimation. Our experimental results show that DOC can be estimated accurately and in real-time. These estimates when combined with measurements for rotary speed, torque, and force can provide improved estimates for ROP and MSE. These results have the potential to enable better drilling assessment, improved control, and extended component lifetimes.

This technical report serves to summarize a literature search conducted that covered confidence calibration. This report is meant to serve as a solid starting reference for individuals interested in learning more about the confidence calibration domain as well as for individuals more familiar with this work – as a summarizing document for calibration metrics is notably lacking in the literature. This report is not meant to serve as a comprehensive review of everything that has been done in this field – in fact, the reader is encouraged to look further into this domain. We describe confidence and calibration and discuss properties of good calibration metrics. We detail various calibration and calibration-tangential metrics, presenting equations, algorithms, parameters, and an analysis of strengths and weaknesses. We apply a subset of these metrics to eight proxy confidence assessment datasets. We examine the various metrics in the context of model confidence. Finally, we discuss promising future directions and outstanding questions.

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