In the past several years, several international agencies have begun to collect data on human performance in nuclear power plant simulators [1]. This data provides a valuable opportunity to improve human reliability analysis (HRA), but there improvements will not be realized without implementation of Bayesian methods. Bayesian methods are widely used in to incorporate sparse data into models in many parts of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but Bayesian methods have not been adopted by the HRA community. In this article, we provide a Bayesian methodology to formally use simulator data to refine the human error probabilities (HEPs) assigned by existing HRA methods. We demonstrate the methodology with a case study, wherein we use simulator data from the Halden Reactor Project to update the probability assignments from the SPAR-H method. The case study demonstrates the ability to use performance data, even sparse data, to improve existing HRA methods. Furthermore, this paper also serves as a demonstration of the value of Bayesian methods to improve the technical basis of HRA.
We present a general methodology to determine the diagnostic sensitivity that is directly applicable to neutron-activation diagnostics fielded on a wide variety of neutron-producing experiments, which include inertial-confinement fusion (ICF), dense plasma focus, and ion beam-driven concepts. This approach includes a combination of several effects: (1) non-isotropic neutron emission; (2) the 1/r2 decrease in neutron fluence in the activation material; (3) the spatially distributed neutron scattering, attenuation, and energy losses due to the fielding environment and activation material itself; and (4) temporally varying neutron emission. As an example, we describe the copper-activation diagnostic used to measure secondary deuterium-tritium fusion-neutron yields on ICF experiments conducted on the pulsed-power Z Accelerator at Sandia National Laboratories. Using this methodology along with results from absolute calibrations and Monte Carlo simulations, we find that for the diagnostic configuration on Z, the diagnostic sensitivity is 0.037% ± 17% counts/neutron per cm2 and is ~ 40% less sensitive than it would be in an ideal geometry due to neutron attenuation, scattering, and energy-loss effects.
Of the many facets of the criminal world, few have captured societys fascination as has that of high stakes robbery. The combination of meticulousness, cunning, and audacity required to execute a real-life Oceans Eleven may be uncommon among criminals, but fortunately it is common enough to extract a wealth of lessons for the protection of high-value assets. To assist in informing the analyses and decisions of security professionals, this paper surveys 23 sophisticated and high-value heists that have occurred or been attempted around the world, particularly over the past three decades. The results, compiled in a Heist Methods and Characteristics Database, have been analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, with the goals of both identifying common characteristics and characterizing the range and diversity of criminal methods used. The analysis is focused in six areas: (1) Defeated Security Measures and Devices, (2) Deception Methods, (3) Timing, (4) Weapons, (5) Resources, and (6) Insiders.
In 2012, India and Pakistan reaffirmed the Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons. Despite a history of mutual animosity and persistent conflict between the two countries, this agreement derives strength from a few successful nuclear confidence building measures that have stood the test of time. It also rests on the hope that the region would be spared a nuclear holocaust from an accidental nuclear weapon detonation that might be misconstrued as a deliberate use of a weapon by the other side. This study brings together two emerging strategic analysts from South Asia to explore measures to support the Agreement and further develop cooperation around this critical issue. This study briefly dwells upon the strategic landscape of nuclear South Asia with the respective nuclear force management structures, doctrines, and postures of India and Pakistan. It outlines the measures in place for the physical protection and safety of nuclear warheads, nuclear materials, and command and control mechanisms in the two countries, and it goes on to identify the prominent, emerging challenges posed by the introduction of new weapon technologies and modernization of the respective strategic forces. This is followed by an analysis of the agreement itself leading up to a proposed framework for cooperative measures that might enhance the spirit and implementation of the agreement.
Report RWEV-REP-001, Analysis of Postclosure Groundwater Impacts for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada was issued by the DOE in 2009 and is currently being updated. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) provided support for the original document, performing calculations and extracting data from the Yucca Mountain Performance Assessment Model that were used as inputs to the contaminant transport and dose calculations by Jason Associates Corporation, the primary developers of the DOE report. The inputs from SNL were documented in LSA-AR-037, Inputs to Jason Associates Corporation in Support of the Postclosure Repository Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement. To support the updating of the original Groundwater Impacts document, SNL has reviewed the inputs provided in LSA-AR-037 to verify that they are current and appropriate for use. The results of that assessment are documented here.
The minimum amount of silver flake required to prevent loss of I{sub 2} during sintering in air for a SNL Glass Composite Material (GCM) Waste Form containing AgI-MOR (ORNL, 8.7 wt%) was determined to be 1.1 wt% Ag. The final GCM composition prior to sintering was 20 wt% AgI-MOR, 1.1 wt% Ag, and 80 wt% Bi-Si oxide glass. The amount of silver flake needed to suppress iodine loss was determined using thermo gravimetric analysis with mass spectroscopic off-gas analysis. These studies found that the ratio of silver to AgI-MOR required is lower in the presence of the glass than without it. Therefore an additional benefit of the GCM is that it serves to inhibit some iodine loss during processing. Alternatively, heating the AgI-MOR in inert atmosphere instead of air allowed for densified GCM formation without I{sub 2} loss, and no necessity for the addition of Ag. The cause of this behavior is found to be related to the oxidation of the metallic Ag to Ag{sup +} when heated to above ~300{degrees}C in air. Heating rate, iodine loading levels and atmosphere are the important variables that determine AgI migration and results suggest that AgI may be completely incorporated into the mordenite structure by the 550{degrees}C sintering temperature.
This report describes a simple model for ideal gas flow from a vessel through a bed of porous material into another vessel. It assumes constant temperature and uniform porosity. Transport is treated as a combination of viscous and molecular flow, with no inertial contribution (low Reynolds number). This model can be used to fit data to obtain permeability values, determine flow rates, understand the relative contributions of viscous and molecular flow, and verify volume calibrations. It draws upon the Dusty Gas Model and other detailed studies of gas flow through porous media.
ReliaSofts XFRACAS is a tool chosen by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the purpose of collecting and organizing photovoltaic (PV) system field data that is to be used in assessing PV system reliability. It is a Web-based, closed-loop, incident (failure) reporting, analysis, and corrective action system software package designed for the acquisition, management and analysis of quality and reliability data from multiple sources. The ability to export PV system times-to-failure and times-to-suspension for ready analysis by ReliaSofts Weibull++ and RGA was a primary consideration in choosing XFRACAS as a reliability data collection tool.
A presentation giving a current status of the various tasks for the MELCOR code development is provided, including some recently corrected code issues.
The Sandia National Laboratories, California (SNL/CA) Environmental Management System (EMS) Program Manual documents the elements of the site EMS Program. The SNL/CA EMS Program conforms to the International Standard on Environmental Management Systems, ISO 14001:2004 and Department of Energy (DOE) Order 436.1.
