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Final Documentation: Incident Management And Probabilities Courses of action Tool (IMPACT)

Edwards, Donna M.; Ray, Jaideep R.; Tucker, Mark D.; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Cauthen, Katherine R.

This report pulls together the documentation produced for the IMPACT tool, a software-based decision support tool that provides situational awareness, incident characterization, and guidance on public health and environmental response strategies for an unfolding bio-terrorism incident.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2018
DOIOSTI

Transportation Energy Pathways LDRD

Barter, Garrett B.; Edwards, Donna M.; Hines, Valerie A.; Reichmuth, David R.; Westbrook, Jessica W.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Yoshimura, Ann S.; Peterson, Meghan P.; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn K.; Guzman, Katherine D.

This report presents a system dynamics based model of the supply-demand interactions between the US light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through the year 2050. An important capability of our model is the ability to conduct parametric analyses. Others have relied upon scenario-based analysis, where one discrete set of values is assigned to the input variables and used to generate one possible realization of the future. While these scenarios can be illustrative of dominant trends and tradeoffs under certain circumstances, changes in input values or assumptions can have a significant impact on results, especially when output metrics are associated with projections far into the future. This type of uncertainty can be addressed by using a parametric study to examine a range of values for the input variables, offering a richer source of data to an analyst.The parametric analysis featured here focuses on a trade space exploration, with emphasis on factors that influence the adoption rates of electric vehicles (EVs), the reduction of GHG emissions, and the reduction of petroleum consumption within the US LDV fleet. The underlying model emphasizes competition between 13 different types of powertrains, including conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), conventional hybrids(HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles(BEVs).We find that many factors contribute to the adoption rates of EVs. These include the pace of technological development for the electric powertrain, battery performance, as well as the efficiency improvements in conventional vehicles. Policy initiatives can also have a dramatic impact on the degree of EV adoption. The consumer effective payback period, in particular, can significantly increase the market penetration rates if extended towards the vehicle lifetime.Widespread EV adoption can have noticeable impact on petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas(GHG) emission by the LDV fleet. However, EVs alone cannot drive compliance with the most aggressive GHG emission reduction targets, even as the current electricity source mix shifts away from coal and towards natural gas. Since ICEs will comprise the majority of the LDV fleet for up to forty years, conventional vehicle efficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions over this time.These findings seem robust even if global oil prices rise to two to three times current projections. Thus,investment in improving the internal combustion engine might be the cheapest, lowest risk avenue towards meeting ambitious GHG emission and petroleum consumption reduction targets out to 2050.3 Acknowledgment The authors would like to thank Dr. Andrew Lutz, Dr. Benjamin Wu, Prof. Joan Ogden and Dr. Christopher Yang for their suggestions over the course of this project. This work was funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2012
DOIOSTI

Parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs for conventional and electric light-duty vehicles

Energy Policy

Barter, Garrett B.; Reichmuth, David R.; Westbrook, Jessica W.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn K.; Guzman, Katherine D.; Edwards, Donna M.

A parametric analysis is used to examine the supply demand interactions between the US light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through 2050. The analysis emphasizes competition between conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, including hybrids, and electric vehicles (EVs), represented by both plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. We find that EV market penetration could double relative to our baseline case with policies to extend consumers' effective payback period to 7 years. EVs can also reduce per vehicle petroleum consumption by up to 5% with opportunities to increase that fraction at higher adoption rates. However, EVs have limited ability to reduce LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with the current energy source mix. Alone, EVs cannot drive compliance with the most aggressive GHG emission reduction targets, even if the electricity grid shifts towards natural gas powered sources. Since ICEs will dominate the LDV fleet for up to 40 years, conventional vehicle efficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions and petroleum consumption over this time. Specifically, achieving fleet average efficiencies of 72. mpg or greater can reduce average GHG emissions by 70% and average petroleum consumption by 81%. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

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TYPE Journal Article YEAR 2012
OSTIScopus
Results 1–25 of 37
Results 1–25 of 37