Since even before its establishment as an independent national security laboratory in 1949, Sandia has been devoted to an overarching mission of developing advanced technologies for global peace. These technologies have taken a variety of forms, and they exist in and must address an ever-changing global security environment. An understanding of that global security environment and its possible or likely evolution is therefore critical to ensuring that Sandia can maintain its focus on strategic technology investments that will benefit the nation in the next 20- 30 years. Sandia sustains multiple Systems Analysis organizations whose responsibility includes maintaining an understanding of the global security environment as it applies across multiple mission domains. The topics below include two from Sandia's emerging threats and biodefense mission, three with relevance to Sandia's cyber defense mission, and four of particular but not exclusive relevance to Sandia's nuclear deterrence mission. All are intended to spur independent academic thought that could assist Sandia as well as the broader national security community in anticipating and adapting to a continually changing world. Sandia anticipates periodic interactions between Sandia Systems Analysis staff and SciPol Scholars Program faculty and students who choose to expand upon these topics in order to provide opportunities for feedback and communication throughout 2020-2021.
The U.S. nuclear stockpile hedge is an inventory of non-deployed nuclear warheads and a force structure capable of deploying those warheads. Current guidance is to retain this hedge to mitigate the risk associated with the technical failure of any single warhead type or adverse geopolitical developments that could require augmentation of the force. The necessary size of the hedge depends on the composition of the nuclear stockpile and assumed constraints. Knowing the theoretical minimum hedge given certain constraints is useful when considering future weapons policy. HedgeHOGS, an Excel-based tool, was developed to enable rapid calculation of the minimum hedge size associated with varying active stockpile composition and hedging strategies.
In June 2013, the Department of Defense published a congressionally mandated, unclassified update on the U.S. Nuclear Employment Strategy. Among the many updates in this document are three key ground rules for guiding the sizing of the non-deployed U.S. nuclear stockpile. Furthermore, these ground rules form an important and objective set of criteria against which potential future stockpile hedging strategies can be evaluated.
Of the many facets of the criminal world, few have captured societys fascination as has that of high stakes robbery. The combination of meticulousness, cunning, and audacity required to execute a real-life Oceans Eleven may be uncommon among criminals, but fortunately it is common enough to extract a wealth of lessons for the protection of high-value assets. To assist in informing the analyses and decisions of security professionals, this paper surveys 23 sophisticated and high-value heists that have occurred or been attempted around the world, particularly over the past three decades. The results, compiled in a Heist Methods and Characteristics Database, have been analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, with the goals of both identifying common characteristics and characterizing the range and diversity of criminal methods used. The analysis is focused in six areas: (1) Defeated Security Measures and Devices, (2) Deception Methods, (3) Timing, (4) Weapons, (5) Resources, and (6) Insiders.