Publications

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A digital twin has intelligent modules that continuously monitor the condition of the individual components and the whole of a system. Digital twins can provide nuclear power plants (NPP) operators an unprecedented level of monitoring, control, supervision, and security by contributing a greater volume of data for more comprehensive data analysis and increased accuracy of insights and predictions for decision making throughout the entire NPP lifecycle. NPP operators and managers have historically relied on limited, second hand or incomplete data. With proper implementation, digital twins can provide a central hub of all intel that allows for a multidisciplinary view of an NPP. This equips operators and managers with the ability to have more information, context, and intel that can be used for greater granularity during planning and decision making. Digital twins can be used in many activities as the technology has many different concepts surrounding it. From the various definitions of a digital twin within the industry, digital twins can be differentiated by levels of integration/automation. The three main models include digital model, digital shadow, and digital twin. Digital twins offer many potential advancements to the nuclear industry that could reduce costs, improve designs, provide safer operation, and improve their overall security.

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Climate and its impacts on the natural environment, and on the ability of the natural environment to support population and the built environment, stands as a threat multiplier that impacts national and global security. The Water Intersections with Climate Systems Security (WICSS) Strategic Initiative is designed to improve understanding of water’s role in, among other topics, the connection of critical infrastructure to climate in light of competing national and global security interests (including transboundary issues and stability), and identifying research gaps aligned with Sandia, and Federal agency priorities. With this impetus in mind, the WICSS Strategic Initiative team conceptualized a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the relationship between and among climate, the natural environment, population, and the built environment, with an understanding that any such regionally focused system must have externalities that influence the system from beyond its’ control, and metrics for better understanding the consequences of the set of interactions. These are discussed in light of a series of worldviews that focus on portions of the overall systems relationship. The relationships are described and documented in detail. A set of reinforcing and balancing loops are then highlighted within the context of the model. Finally, forward-looking actions are highlighted to describe how this conceptual model can be turned into modeling to address multiple problems described under the purview of the Strategic Initiative.

This report documents the preliminary design phase of the Critical Experiment Design (CED-1) conducted as part of integral experiment request (IER) 523. The purpose of IER-523 is to determine critical configurations of 35 weight percent (wt%) enriched uranium dioxideberyllium oxide (UO₂-BeO) material with Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) fuels at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia). Preliminary experiment design concepts, neutronic analysis results, and proposed paths for continuing the CED process are presented. This report builds on the feasibility and justification of experimental need report (CED-0) completed in December 2021.

High Energy Arcing Faults (HEAFs) are hazardous events in which an electrical arc leads to the rapid release of energy in the form of heat, vaporized metal, and mechanical force. In Nuclear Power Plants, these events are often accompanied by loss of essential power and complicated shutdowns. To confirm the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methodology in NUREG/CR-6850, which was formulated based on limited observational data, the NRC led an international experimental campaign from 2014 to 2016. The results of these experiments uncovered an unexpected hazard posed by aluminum components in or near electrical equipment and the potential for unanalyzed equipment failures. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), in support of the NRC work, collaborated with NIST, BSI, KEMA, and NRC to support the full-scale HEAF test campaign in 2022. SNL provided high speed visible and infrared video/data of ten tests that collected data from HEAFs originated on copper and aluminum buses inside switchgears and bus ducts. Part of the SNL scope was to place cameras with high-speed data collection at different vantage points within the test facility to provide NRC a more complete and granular view of the test events.

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The International Database of Reference Gamma-Ray Spectra of Various Nuclear Matter is designed to hold curated gamma spectral data and will be hosted by the International Atomic Energy Agency on its public facing web site. Currently, the database to be hosted is given to the International Atomic Energy Agency by Sandia. This document describes the application used by Sandia to load spectral data into a database.

Improved power take-off (PTO) controller design for wave energy converters is considered a critical component for reducing the cost of energy production. However, the device and control design process often remains sequential, with the space of possible final designs largely reduced before the controller has been considered. Control co-design, whereby the device and control design are considered concurrently, has resulted in improved designs in many industries, but remains rare in the wave energy community. In this paper we demonstrate the use of a new open-source code, WecOptTool, for control co-design of wave energy converters, with the aim to make the co-design approach more accessible and accelerate its adoption. Additionally, we highlight the importance of designing a wave energy converter to maximize electrical power, rather than mechanical power, and demonstrate the co-design process while modeling the PTO's components (i.e., drive-train and generator, and their dynamics). We also consider the design and optimization of causal fixed-structure controllers. The demonstration presented here considers the PTO design problem and finds the optimal PTO drive-train that maximizes annual electrical power production. The results show a 22% improvement in the optimal controller and drive-train co-design over the optimal controller for the nominal, as built, device design.

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Numerical simulations are used to study the dynamics of a developing suspension Poiseuille flow with monodispersed and bidispersed neutrally buoyant particles in a planar channel, and machine learning is applied to learn the evolving stresses of the developing suspension. The particle stresses and pressure develop on a slower time scale than the volume fraction, indicating that once the particles reach a steady volume fraction profile, they rearrange to minimize the contact pressure on each particle. We consider the timescale for stress development and how the stress development connects to particle migration. For developing monodisperse suspensions, we present a new physics-informed Galerkin neural network that allows for learning the particle stresses when direct measurements are not possible. We show that when a training set of stress measurements is available, the MOR-physics operator learning method can also capture the particle stresses accurately.

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As Moore’s Law and Dennard Scaling come to an end, it is becoming increasingly important to develop non-von Neumann computing architectures that can perform low-power computing in the domains of scientific computing, artificial intelligence, embedded systems, and edge computing. Next-generation computing technologies, such as neuromorphic computing and quantum computing, have the potential to revolutionize computing. However, in order to make progress in these fields, it is necessary to fundamentally change the current computing paradigm by codesigning systems across all system level, from materials to software. Because skilled labor is limited in the field of next-generation computing, we are developing artificial intelligence-enhanced tools to automate the codesign and co-discovery of next-generation computers. Here, we develop a method called Modular and Multi-level MAchine Learning (MAMMAL) which is able to perform analog codesign and co-discovery across multiple system levels, spanning devices to circuits. We prototype MAMMAL by using it to design simple passive analog low-pass filters. We also explore methods to incorporate uncertainty quantification into MAMMAL and to accelerate MAMMAL by using emerging technologies, such as crossbar arrays. Ultimately, we believe that MAMMAL will enable rapid progress in developing next-generation computers by automating the codesign and co-discovery of electronic systems.

Nonlinear modeling and optimization is a valuable tool for aiding decisions by engineering practitioners, but programming an optimization problem based on a complex electrical, mechanical, or chemical process is a time-consuming and error-prone activity. Therefore, there is a need for model analysis and debugging tools that can detect and diagnose modeling errors. One such tool is the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition, which identifies structurally under- and over-determined subsets in systems of equations and variables by partitioning the bipartite graph of the system. This work provides the necessary background to understand the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition and its application to the analysis of nonlinear optimization problems, demonstrates its use in diagnosing a variety of modeling errors, and introduces software implementations for analyzing nonlinear optimization problems in the Pyomo and JuMP algebraic modeling languages.

A major difficulty in the analysis of molecular-level simulations is that macroscopic flow quantities are inherently noisy due to molecular fluctuations. An important example for turbulent flows is the kinetic energy dissipation rate. Traditionally, this quantity is calculated from gradients of the macroscopic velocity field, which exacerbates the noise problem. The inability to accurately compute the dissipation rate makes meaningful comparison of molecular-level and continuum simulation results a serious challenge. Herein, we extend previously developed coarse-graining theories to derive an exact molecular-level expression for the dissipation rate, which would circumvent the need to compute gradients of noisy fields. Although the exact expression cannot feasibly be implemented in Sandia’s direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code SPARTA, we utilize an approximate “hybrid” approach and compare it to the conventional gradient-based approach for planar Couette flow and the two-dimensional Taylor-Green vortex, demonstrating that the hybrid approach is significantly more accurate. Finally, we explore the possibility of adopting a Lagrangian approach to calculate the energy dissipation rate.

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As large systems of Li-ion batteries are being increasingly deployed, the safety of such systems must be assessed. Due to the high cost of testing large systems, it is important to extract key safety information from any available experiments. Developing validated predictive models that can be exercised at larger scales offers an opportunity to augment experimental data In this work, experiments were conducted on packs of three Li-ion pouch cells with different heating rates and states of charge (SOC) to assess the propagation behavior of a module undergoing thermal runaway. The variable heating rates represent slow or fast heating that a module may experience in a system. As the SOC decreases, propagation slows down and eventually becomes mitigated. It was found that the SOC boundary between propagation and mitigation was higher at a heating rate of 50 °C/min than at 10 °C/min for these cells. However, due to increased pre-heating at the lower heating rate, the propagation speed increased. Simulations were conducted with a new intra-particle diffusion-limited reaction model for a range of anode particle sizes. Propagation speeds and onset times were generally well predicted, and the variability in the propagation/mitigation boundary highlighted the need for greater uncertainty quantification of the predictions.

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This is a SAND Report on cross-correlation data collected at the Redmond Salt Mine. It discusses methods, as well as temporal variability and energy characteristics of the cross-correlation data.

A collection of MATLAB functions and class definitions called System Workflow Tools (SWFT) are available to semi-automate steps in the simulation process. Some of these steps are often simple and routine for smaller finite element models, but if done directly by an analyst can quickly become labor intensive, cumbersome, and error prone for larger, system level models. Some of SWFT’s capabilities demonstrated in this report includes writing Sierra input decks and processing Quantities of Interest (QOI) from results files. SWFT also writes scripts in order to utilize other software programs such as Cubit (separating system level CAD into subassemblies and components, creating nodesets and sidesets), DAKOTA (ensemble management), and ParaView (contour plots and animations). Detailed commands and workflows from mesh generation to report generation are provided as examples for analysts to utilize SWFT capabilities.

This report presents our work to model the workloads of a linear electromagnetic application based on the method of moments in the frequency domain to effectively load balance the matrix assembly. This application is particularly challenging to load balance due to its lack of persistent iterative behavior, its operation under tight memory constraint (where the matrix may fill 80% of memory on each node), and the algorithmic complexity of the computational method. This report describes the first step in our work to apply an inspector-executor approach for load balancing workloads where key parameters are exposed during the inspector phase and a pre-trained model is applied to predict relative task weights for the load balancer.

Large rocket motors may violently explode when exposed to accidental fires. Even hot metal fragments from a nearby accident may penetrate the propellant and ultimately cause thermal ignition. A mechanistic understanding of heated propellants leading to thermal runaway is a major unsolved problem. Here we show that thermal ignition in propellants can be predicted using a universal cookoff model coupled to a micromechanics pressurization model. Our model predicts the time to thermal ignition in cookoff experiments with variable headspace volumes. We found that experiments with headspace volumes are more prone to deformation which distorts pores and causes increased permeability when the propellant expands into this headspace. Delayed ignition with larger headspace volume correlates with lower headspace pressures during decomposition. We found that our predictions matched experimental measurements best when the initial propellant was impermeable to gas flow rather than being permeable. Similar behavior is expected with other energetic materials with rubbery binders. Our model is validated using data from a separate laboratory. We also present an uncertainty analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of thermal ignition caused by a steel fragment embedded in the propellant.

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Plasma distribution in 3D space is heavily influenced by complex surfaces and the coupling interactions between plasma properties and interfacing material properties. For example, guided streamers that transition to surface ionization waves (SIWs) and propagate over structured dielectrics experience field enhancements that can lead to localized increases in ionization rates and complex 3D configurations that are difficult to analyze. Investigating these configurations requires techniques than can provide a more complete 3D picture. To help address this capability gap, a tomographic optical emission spectroscopy (tomo-OES) diagnostic system has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories that can resolve SIWs. The system includes four intensified cameras that measure the angular projections of the plasma light emission through bandpass filters. A dot calibration target co-registers each angular projection to the same voxel grid and an algebraic reconstruction technique (ART) recovers the light intensity at each voxel. An atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ), provided by Peter Bruggeman, has been investigated and representative results are shown in Figure 1. Here, a bandpass filter was used to isolate emission from the N₂ second positive system (SPS) at 337.1 nm to capture the transition of the streamer to SIW on a planar dielectric surface (relative permittivity 3.3) located 3 mm below the APPJ [3]. The surface wave velocity was 3.5x10⁴ (m/s), consistent with measurements made by Steven Shannon. Characterization of this APPJ will support the group effort of standing up a reproducible APPJ across institutions for applications such as liquid treatment, catalysis, and plasma aided combustion. Future work will investigate non-planar surfaces and eventually develop tomographic laser-induced fluorescence (tomo-LIF) approaches.

Accurate event locations are important for many endeavors in seismology, and understanding the factors that contribute to uncertainties in those locations is complex. In this article, we present a case study that takes an in-depth look at the accuracy and precision possible for locating nine shallow earthquakes in the Rock Valley fault zone in southern Nevada. These events are targeted by the Rock Valley Direct Comparison phase of the Source Physics Experiment, as candidates for the colocation of a chemical explosion with an earthquake hypocenter to directly compare earthquake and explosion sources. For this comparison, it is necessary to determine earthquake hypocenters as accurately as possible so that different source types have nearly identical locations. Our investigations include uncertainty analysis from different sets of phase arrivals, stations, velocity models, and location algorithms. For a common set of phase arrivals and stations, we find that epicentral locations from different combinations of velocity models and algorithms are within 600 m of one another in most cases. Event depths exhibit greater uncertainties, but focusing on the S-P times at the nearest station allows for estimates within approximately 500 m.

In the dynamic landscape of Operational Technology (OT), and specifically the emerging landscape for Advanced Reactors, the establishment of trust between digital assets emerges as a challenge for cybersecurity modernization. This report reviews existing approaches to authentication in Enterprise environments, and proposed methods for authentication in OT, and analyzes each for its applicability to future Advanced Reactor digital networks. Principles of authentication ranging from underlying cryptographic mechanisms to trust authorities are evaluated through the lens of OT. These facets emphasize the importance of mutual authentication in real-time environments, enabling a paradigm shift from the current approach of strong boundaries to a more malleable network that allows for flexible operation. This work finds that there is a need for evaluation and decision making by industry stakeholders, but current technologies and approaches can be adapted to fit needs and risk tolerances.

Freeplay is a common type of piecewise-smooth nonlinearity in dynamical systems, and it can cause discontinuity-induced bifurcations and other behaviors that may bring about undesirable and potentially damaging responses. Prior research has focused on piecewise-smooth systems with two or three distinct regions, but less attention is devoted to systems with more regions (i.e., multi-segmented systems). In this work, numerical analysis is performed on a dynamical system with multi-segmented freeplay, in which there are four stiffness transitions and five distinct regions in the phase space. The effects of the multi-segmented parameters are studied through bifurcation diagram evolution along with induced multi-stable behavior and different bifurcations. These phenomena are interrogated through various tools, such as harmonic balance, basins of attraction, phase planes, and Poincaré section analysis. Results show that among the three multi-segmented parameters, the asymmetry has the strongest effect on the response of the system.

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This project has identified opportunities to bring further reductions in the mass and cost of modern wind turbine blades through the use of alternative material systems and manufacturing processes. The fiber reinforced polymer material systems currently used by the wind industry have stagnated as the technology continues to mature and as a means to reduce risk while introducing new products with continually increasing blade lengths. However, as blade lengths continue to increase, the challenge of controlling blade mass becomes even more critical to enabling the associated levelized cost of energy reductions. Stiffer and stronger reinforcement fibers can help to resolve the challenges of meeting the loading demands while limiting the increase in weight, but these materials are substantially more expensive than the traditional E-glass fiber systems. One goal of this project and associated work is to identify pathways that improve the cost-effectiveness of carbon fiber such that it is the reinforcement of choice in the primary structural elements of wind blades. The use of heavy-tow textile carbon fiber material systems has been shown to reduce the blade mass by 30-31% when used in the spar cap and by up to 7% when used in edgewise reinforcement. A pultrusion cost model was developed to enable a material cost comparison that includes an accurate estimate of the intermediate manufacturing step of pultrusion for the carbon fiber composite. Material cost reductions were revealed in most cases for the heavy-tow textile carbon fiber compared to infused fiberglass. The use of carbon fiber in the edgewise reinforcement produced the most notable material cost reduction of 33% for the heavy-tow textile carbon fiber. The mass and cost savings observed when using carbon fiber in edgewise reinforcement demonstrate a clear opportunity of this design approach. A carbon fiber conversion cost model was expanded to include a characterization of manufacturing costs when using advanced conversion processes with atmospheric plasma oxidation. This manufacturing approach was estimated to reduce the cost of carbon fiber material systems by greater than 10% and can be used with textile carbon systems or traditional carbon fiber precursors. The pultrusion cost model was also used to assess the opportunity for using pultruded fiberglass in wind blades, studying conventional E-glass fiber reinforcement. When using pultruded fiberglass as the spar cap material for two design classifications, the blade weight was reduced by 6% and 9% compared to infused fiberglass. However, due to the relatively large share of the pultrusion manufacturing cost compared to fiber cost, the spar cap material cost increased by 12% and 7%. When considering the system benefits of reduced blade mass and potentially lower blade manufacturing costs for pultruded composites, there may be opportunity for pultruded E-glass in wind blade spar caps, but further studies are needed. There is a clearer outcome for using pultruded fiberglass in the edgewise reinforcement where it resulted in a blade mass reduction of 2% and associated reinforcement material cost reduction of 1% compared to infused E-glass. The use of higher performing glass fibers, such as S-glass and H-glass systems, will produce greater mass savings but a study is needed to assess the cost implications for these more expensive systems. The most likely opportunity for these high-performance glass fibers is in the edgewise reinforcement, where the increased strength will reduce the damage accumulation of this fatigue-driven component. The blade design assessments in this project characterize the controlling material properties for the primary structural components in the flapwise and edgewise directions for modern wind blades. The observed trends with low and high wind speed turbine classifications for carbon and glass fiber reinforced polymer systems help to identify where cost reductions are needed, and where improvements in mechanical properties would help to reduce the material demands.

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The ability to track the concentrations of specific molecules in the body in real time would significantly improve our ability to study, monitor, and respond to diseases. To achieve this, we require sensors that can withstand the complex environment inside the body. Electrochemical aptamer-based sensors are particularly promising for in vivo sensing, as they are among the only generalizable sensing technologies that can achieve real-time molecular monitoring directly in blood and the living body. In this project, we first focused on extending the application space of aptamer sensors to support minimally-invasive wearable measurements. To achieve this, we developed individually-addressable sensors with commercial off-the-shelf microneedles. We demonstrated sensor function in buffer, blood, and porcine skin (a common proxy for human skin). In addition to the applied sensing project, we also worked to improve fundamental understanding of the aptamer sensing platform and how it responds to biomolecular interferents. Specifically, we explored the interfacial dynamics of biofouling – a process impacting sensors placed in complex fluids, such as blood.

As a follow-up to our more comprehensive report on Adversarial Machine Learning (AML), here we provide demonstrations of AML attacks against the Limbo image database of UF6 cylinders in a variety of orientations and amongst a variety of distractor images. We demonstrate the Carlini & Wagner AML attack against a subset of Limbo images, with 100% attack success rate; meaning all attacked images were misclassified by a highly accurate trained model, yet the image changes were imperceptible to the human eye. We also demonstrate successful attacks against segmented images (images with more than one targeted object). Finally, we demonstrated the Fast Fourier Transform countermeasure that can be used to detect AML attacks on images. The intent of this and our previous report is to inform the IAEA and stakeholders of both the promise of machine learning, which could greatly improve the efficiency of surveillance monitoring, but also of the real threat of AML and potential defenses.

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In this paper, an approach for 3D plasma structure diagnostics using tomographic optical emission spectroscopy (Tomo-OES) of a nanosecond pulsed atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ) is presented. In contrast to the well-known Abel inversion, Tomo-OES does not require cylindrical symmetry to recover 3D distributions of plasma light emission. Instead, many 2D angular projections are measured with intensified cameras and the multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique is used to recover the 3D distribution of light emission. This approach solves the line-of-sight integration problem inherent to optical diagnostics, allowing recovery of localized OES information within the plasma that can be used to better infer plasma parameters within complex plasma structures. Here, Tomo-OES was applied to investigate an APPJ operated with helium in ambient air and impinging on planar and structured dielectric surfaces. Surface charging caused the guided streamer from the APPJ to transition to a surface ionization wave (SIW) that propagated along the surface. The SIW experienced variable geometrical and electrical material properties as it propagated, leading to 3D configurations that were non-symmetric and spatially complex. Light emission from He, N 2 + , and N2 were imaged at ten angular projections and the respective time-resolved 3D emission distributions in the plasma were then reconstructed. The spatial resolution of each tomographic reconstruction was 7.4 µm and the temporal resolution was 5 ns, sufficient to observe the guided streamer and the effects of the structured surface on the SIW. Emission from He showed the core of the jet and emission from N 2 + and N2 indicated effects of entrainment of ambient air. Penning ionization of N2 created a ring or outer layer of N 2 + that spatially converged to form the ‘plasma bullet’ or spatially diverged across a surface as part of a SIW. The SIW entered trenches of size 150 µm, leading to decreases in plasma light emission in regions above the trenches. The plasma light emission was higher in some regions with trenches, possibly due to effects of field enhancement.

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Accurate targeting of radioisotope classifiers and estimators requires an understanding of the target problem space. In order to facilitate clear communication on expected model behavior and performance between practitioners and stakeholders on their problems, this questionnaire was created. Stakeholder responses form the basis of a trained model as well as the start of usage requirements for the model as it is integrated with analysis processes or detection systems. This questionnaire may also be useful to machine learning practitioners and gamma spectroscopists developing new algorithms as a starting point for characterizing their problem space, especially if they are using PyRIID.

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Tritium exhibits unique environmental behavior because of its potential interactions with water and organic substances. Modeling the environmental consequences of tritium releases can be relatively complex and thus an evaluation of MACCS is needed to understand what updates, if any, are needed in MACCS to account for the behavior of tritium. We examine documented tritium releases and previous benchmarking assessments to perform a model intercomparison between MACCS and state-of-practice tritium-specific codes UFOTRI and ETMOD to quantify the difference between MACCS and state of practice models for assessing tritium consequences. Additionally, information to assist an analyst in judging whether a postulated tritium release is likely to lead to significant doses is provided.

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.