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Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization

Desmond, Jacob R.; Walsh, Timothy; Mccormick, Cameron; Smith, Chandler B.; Kurzawski, Andrew J.; Sanders, Clay M.; Eldred, Michael S.; Aquino, Wilkins

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this works offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The proposed approach is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

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Modeling graphene sheet growth and dynamical matrix calculations using molecular dynamics

Vattikuti, Venkata H.; Chrostoski, Philip

Molecular dynamics (MD) has been an incredibly useful tool to model physical processes that were synthesized experimentally but not fully understood. MD, through the use of semi-empirical inter-atomic potentials, has allowed understanding of different physical processes in materials science. Yet as well as providing useful insights into materials science, molecular dynamics has a wider range of usability. In this report, I will be detailing how MD can be used to study graphene formation from a carbon liquid which requires high temperatures and pressures. Beyond this, I will describe the usefulness of MD for understanding the physics for phonon transport quantum sensors. To do this, MD was employed to determine the dynamical matrix by treating atoms as coupled oscillators. An accurate understanding of the dynamical matrix of a system is required to calculate the non-equilibrium Green’s function used to describe the phonon transport within phonon wave-guides. I found that, across multiple pressures and temperatures, randomly placed carbon atoms will show evidence of pent-first formation with semi-empirical models. Density functional theory (DFT), on the other hand, was too computationally expensive to use for full scale MD simulations, but we have the possibility of training a machine learned interatomic potential to approximate DFT for carbon in the environments being studied for pent-first graphene sheet formation.

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Nuclear Safety System Cybersecurity Panel Summary

Karch, Benjamin; Gray, Titus A.

The panel discussion titled "Innovations in Advanced Cybersecurity Technologies for Safety Systems Within Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs)" took place at the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Annual Meeting in Las Vegas on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. The session was moderated by Lee Maccarone of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and featured four experts: Benjamin Karch from Sandia National Laboratories, Ismael Garcia from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Trevor Taylor from Paragon Energy Solutions (ES), and Forrest Shriver from Sentinel Devices.

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Complete and Correct Transfer of Information (CACTI)

Crosby, Sean M.; Curry, Matthew L.; Lofstead, Gerald (Jay) F.

Many distributed systems, file transfer mechanisms, and message passing systems offer reliability mechanisms such as acknowledgements, retries, and durability. While these tools may be “good enough” for their typical use cases, they may not offer sufficient coverage for the wide range of faults that impact data transfers and communication. A gap in the reliability measures may lead to some small amount of data loss. Some high-consequence systems cannot tolerate the loss or corruption of even a single record. We present seven principles that will counter a wide range of faults and protect against data loss and corruption. These principles bring together lessons learned from a wide range of technologies and can inform appropriate system design and application usage. These principles will help readers reason on how prevent data loss in a multi-hop pipeline and how to properly use tools that may have a deficiency in reliability.

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A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering

Singh, Pratyush K.; Faghihi, Danial

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. This study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

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Measurement of Photovoltaic Module Deformation Dynamics during Hail Impact Using Digital Image Correlation

IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics

Hartley, James Y.; Shimizu, Michael A.; Braid, Jennifer L.; Flanagan, Ryan; Reu, P.L.

Stereo high-speed video of photovoltaic modules undergoing laboratory hail tests was processed using digital image correlation to determine module surface deformation during and immediately following impact. The purpose of this work was to demonstrate a methodology for characterizing module impact response differences as a function of construction and incident hail parameters. Video capture and digital image analysis were able to capture out-of-plane module deformation to a resolution of ±0.1 mm at 11 kHz on an in-plane grid of 10 × 10 mm over the area of a 1 × 2 m commercial photovoltaic module. With lighting and optical adjustments, the technique was adaptable to arbitrary module designs, including size, backsheet color, and cell interconnection. Impacts were observed to produce an initially localized dimple in the glass surface, with peak deflection proportional to the square root of incident energy. Subsequent deformation propagation and dissipation were also captured, along with behavior for instances when the module glass fractured. Natural frequencies of the module were identifiable by analyzing module oscillations postimpact. Limitations of the measurement technique were that the impacting ice ball obscured the data field immediately surrounding the point of contact, and both ice and glass fracture events occurred within 100 μs, which was not resolvable at the chosen frame rate. Increasing the frame rate and visualizing the back surface of the impact could be applied to avoid these issues. Applications for these data include validating computational models for hail impacts, identifying the natural frequencies of a module, and identifying damage initiation mechanisms.

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User Stories for PV Operations and Maintenance: Findings from the 2024 PVPMC Workshop

Hansen, Clifford

At the 2024 Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Modeling Workshop we collected user stories related to PV system monitoring, analytics, and operations and maintenance (O&M). In this context, user stories describe challenges with current practices and tools or imagining opportunities for improvements. From these user stories, we identified several near-term opportunities to improve photovoltaic system monitoring, analytics and O&M.

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Water Resource Assessment In The New Mexico Permian Basin: BLM 2023 Assessment Report

Kirkes, Leslie D.; Reyna, Orlando R.; Lofton, Owen W.; Franco, Cody M.; Kirkes, Justin R.; Johnson, Patricia B.; Peplinski, William J.; Coyte, Rachel

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil field in the United States and is comprised of three component basins including; the Midland Basin, Delaware Basin and the Marfa Basin. This report describes the work conducted by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to investigate the occurrence of usable water (quality, and depth to water) in the Delaware Sub-basin of the Permian Basin. High Production Areas (HPAs) were identified for the region based on Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario (RFD) published by New Mexico Tech University. HPAs were established based on potential for future development of oil reserves. The study was initiated by the BLM-Carlsbad Field Office (CFO) based on concerns that special protections for groundwater in these HPAs may be warranted. A combination of analysis of existing data and field work to collect new data for analysis were used to complete the investigation objectives. This study summarizes the most recent analyses in an ongoing project and builds on previously completed work as listed in Table 1. Advancements in directional drilling and well completion technologies have resulted in an exponential growth in the use of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas extraction in the Permian Basin. Within the New Mexico portion of the Delaware Sub-basin, water demand to complete each hydraulically fractured well is estimated to average 7.3 acre-feet (2.4 million gallons), resulting in 30 billion barrels of water over the life of the plan or 1.5 billion barrels per year. This rising demand is creating concern for the regions ability to provide the necessary water in a manner that fulfills BLM’s role of protecting human health and the environment while sustainably meeting the needs of various water users in the region. This report documents water-level and water chemistry baselines to aid the BLM in understanding the regional water supply dynamics under various management, policy, and growth scenarios and to pre-emptively identify risks to water sustainability.

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Evaluation of Dose Coefficients Implemented in MACCS

Nguyen, Audrey T.T.

A variety of dose conversion factor files (DCF files) have been supplied for use with the MACCS code since it was initially released. For MACCS 4.2, the MACCS DCF files have been updated to include coefficients used in the computation of acute skin doses from within the MACCS software to increase functionality and to add a pseudo-organ to represent the total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) (as defined in 10 CFR 20.1003) based on International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 30. This report provides a description of how these changes have been implemented and a summary of the various DCF files supplied with MACCS 4.2. The report also provides supplemental discussions to assist the reader in understanding the technical basis for the MACCS DCFs. These supplemental discussions include a summary of basic dosimetry modeling concepts and a brief review of the Federal Guidance Reports (FGRs) upon which MACCS dose coefficients have historically been based.

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Application of the polyhedral template matching method for characterization of 2D atomic resolution electron microscopy images

Materials Characterization

Britton, Darcey; Hinojos, Alejandro E.; Hummel, Michelle H.; Adams, David P.; Medlin, Douglas L.

High-throughput image segmentation of atomic resolution electron microscopy data poses an ongoing challenge for materials characterization. In this paper, we investigate the application of the polyhedral template matching (PTM) method, a technique widely employed for visualizing three-dimensional (3D) atomistic simulations, to the analysis of two-dimensional (2D) atomic resolution electron microscopy images. This technique is complementary with other atomic resolution data reduction techniques, such as the centrosymmetry parameter, that use the measured atomic peak positions as the starting input. Furthermore, since the template matching process also gives a measure of the local rotation, the method can be used to segment images based on local orientation. We begin by presenting a 2D implementation of the PTM method, suitable for atomic resolution images. We then demonstrate the technique's application to atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy images from close-packed metals, providing examples of the analysis of twins and other grain boundaries in FCC gold and martensite phases in 304 L austenitic stainless steel. Finally, we discuss factors, such as positional errors in the image peak locations, that can affect the accuracy and sensitivity of the structural determinations.

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Results 1651–1700 of 101,000
Results 1651–1700 of 101,000
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