Publications

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Understanding how science and technology advance has long been of interest to diverse scholarly communities. Thus far, however, such understanding has not been easy to map to, and thus to improve, the operational practice of research and development. Indeed, one might argue that the operational practice of research and development, particularly its exploratory research half, has become less effective in recent decades. In this paper, we describe a rethinking of how science and technology advance, one that is consistent with many (though not all) of the perspectives of the scholarly communities just mentioned, and one that helps bridge the divide between theory and practice. The result is an architecture we call “Bell's Dodecants,” to reflect its six mechanisms and two flavors, and their balanced nurturing at Bell Labs, the iconic 20th century industrial research and development laboratory.

We present a high-level architecture for how artificial intelligences might advance and accumulate scientific and technological knowledge, inspired by emerging perspectives on how human intelligences advance and accumulate such knowledge. Agents advance knowledge by exercising a technoscientific method—an interacting combination of scientific and engineering methods. The technoscientific method maximizes a quantity we call “useful learning” via more-creative implausible utility (including the “aha!” moments of discovery), as well as via less-creative plausible utility. Society accumulates the knowledge advanced by agents so that other agents can incorporate and build on to make further advances. The proposed architecture is challenging but potentially complete: its execution might in principle enable artificial intelligences to advance and accumulate an equivalent of the full range of human scientific and technological knowledge.

Combinatorial research, the incorporation of multiple domains in a unified research agenda, is a strong contributor to the growing corpus of scientific knowledge and technological advancements worldwide. In 2019, a study team at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia, the Labs) used a systems approach to understand if and how combinatorial research agendas were playing out at Sandia, one of America’s premiere national security research venues. The study team used the data collection effort described in this report to ground the discussion of the broad social environment and particular organizational environments within which combinatorial research agendas are developed, as described in the full study. The team interviewed twenty-five staff members engaged in combinatorial research at Sandia in New Mexico and California during the months of June – September 2019. Analysis of this corpus of ethnographic data, combined with knowledge drawn from relevant literature, concluded that there is an individual type who would be most likely to engage in combinatoric research, described by both demographic and psychographic components. This type demonstrates both intellectual depth and the curiosity which leads to breadth. The analysis also showed that Sandia as an organization and as perceived by the respondents, set up tension for the combinatorial researcher. While Sandia was generally agnostic towards combinatorial research, that agnostic posture depended on whether the researcher was able to fulfill all her customer obligations – obligations that are structured primarily in transactional relationships with customers with relatively short time horizons. This report concludes with suggestions for additional research in the ethnographic domain.

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This project matured a new understanding (a “modern synthesis”) of the structure and evolution of science and technology. It created an understanding and framework for how Sandia National Labs, the Department of Energy, and the nation, might improve their research productivity, with significant ramifications on national security and economic competitiveness.

In April 5-7, 2022, Sandia National Laboratories hosted a second virtual workshop to further explore the potential for developing AI-enhanced co-design for microelectronics (AICoM). This second piece in an ongoing workshop series again brought together two themes. The first theme, co-design for next generation microelectronics, was drawn from the 2018 Department of Energy Office of Science (DOE SC) “Basic Research Needs for Microelectronics” (BRN) report (DOE/SC, 2018, 2021), which called for a “fundamental rethinking” of the traditional design approach to microelectronics, in which subject matter experts (SMEs) in each microelectronics discipline (materials, devices, circuits, algorithms, etc.) work near-independently. Instead, the BRN called for a non-hierarchical, egalitarian vision of co-design, wherein “each scientific discipline informs and engages the others” in “parallel but intimately networked efforts to create radically new capabilities.” The second theme, exploiting and advancing artificial intelligence (AI) to support co-design for microelectronics, acknowledges the continuing breakthroughs in AI that are currently enhancing and accelerating solutions to traditional design problems in materials synthesis and processing, circuit design, and electronic design automation (EDA).

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On April 6-8, 2021, Sandia National Laboratories hosted a virtual workshop to explore the potential for developing AI-Enhanced Co-Design for Next-Generation Microelectronics (AICoM). The workshop brought together two themes. The first theme was articulated in the 2018 Department of Energy Office of Science (DOE SC) “Basic Research Needs for Microelectronics” (BRN) report, which called for a “fundamental rethinking” of the traditional design approach to microelectronics, in which subject matter experts (SMEs) in each microelectronics discipline (materials, devices, circuits, algorithms, etc.) work near-independently. Instead, the BRN called for a non-hierarchical, egalitarian vision of co-design, wherein “each scientific discipline informs and engages the others” in “parallel but intimately networked efforts to create radically new capabilities.” The second theme was the recognition of the continuing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) that are currently enhancing and accelerating the solution of traditional design problems in materials science, circuit design, and electronic design automation (EDA).

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Two perspectives are used to reframe Simonton’s recent three-factor definition of creative outcome. The first perspective is functional: that creative ideas are those that add significantly to knowledge by providing both utility and learning. The second perspective is calculational: that learning can be estimated by the change in probabilistic beliefs about an idea’s utility before and after it has played out in its environment. The results of the reframing are proposed conceptual and mathematical definitions of (a) creative outcome as the product of two overarching factors (utility and learning) and (b) learning as a function of two subsidiary factors (blindness reduction and surprise). Learning will be shown to depend much more strongly on surprise than on blindness reduction, so creative outcome may then also be defined as “implausible utility.”.

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We raise for debate and discussion what in our opinion is a growing mis-control and mis-protection of U.S. energy research. We outline the origin of this mis-control and mis-protection, and propose two guiding principles to mitigate them and instead nurture research: (1) focus on people, not projects; and (2) culturally insulate research from development, but not science from technology. Energy research is critical to continuing advances in human productivity and welfare. In this Commentary, we raise for debate and discussion what in our view is a growing mis-control and mis-protection of U.S. energy research. This flawed approach originates in natural human tendencies exacerbated by an historical misunderstanding of research and development, science and technology, and the relationships between them. We outline the origin of the mis-control and mis-protection, and propose two guiding principles to mitigate them and instead nurture research: (i) focus on people, not projects; and (ii) culturally insulate research from development, but not science from technology. Our hope is to introduce these principles into the discourse now, so they can help guide policy changes in U.S. energy research and development that are currently being driven by powerful geopolitical winds. Summary: Two foundational guiding principles are proposed to mitigate a growing mis-control and mis-protection of U.S. energy research, and instead to nurture it.

We present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in the electrification of energy by free-fuel sources. These trends point toward a future in which energy is affordable, abundant, and efficiently deployed; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to humanity. We present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported unidirectionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bidirectionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored artificial agential control. These trends point toward a future in which energy is not costly, scarce, or inefficiently deployed but instead is affordable, abundant, and efficiently deployed; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to humanity.

Quantum-size-controlled photoelectrochemical (QSC-PEC) etching, which uses quantum confinement effects to control size, can potentially enable the fabrication of epitaxial quantum nanostructures with unprecedented accuracy and precision across a wide range of materials systems. However, many open questions remain about this new technique, including its limitations and broader applicability. In this project, using an integrated experimental and theoretical modeling approach, we pursue a greater understanding of the time-dependent QSC-PEC etch process and to uncover the underlying mechanisms that determine its ultimate accuracy and precision. We also seek to broaden our understanding of the scope of its ultimate applicability in emerging nanostructures and nanodevices.

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This open access book examines how the social sciences can be integrated into the praxis of engineering and science, presenting unique perspectives on the interplay between engineering and social science. Motivated by the report by the Commission on Humanities and Social Sciences of the American Association of Arts and Sciences, which emphasizes the importance of social sciences and Humanities in technical fields, the essays and papers collected in this book were presented at the NSF-funded workshop ‘Engineering a Better Future: Interplay between Engineering, Social Sciences and Innovation’, which brought together a singular collection of people, topics and disciplines. The book is split into three parts: A. Meeting at the Middle: Challenges to educating at the boundaries covers experiments in combining engineering education and the social sciences; B. Engineers Shaping Human Affairs: Investigating the interaction between social sciences and engineering, including the cult of innovation, politics of engineering, engineering design and future of societies; and C. Engineering the Engineers: Investigates thinking about design with papers on the art and science of science and engineering practice.

In August 2017, Sandia convened five workshops to explore the future of advanced technologies and global peace and security through the lenses of deterrence, information, innovation, nonproliferation, and population and Earth systems.

A monumental shift from conventional lighting technologies (incandescent, fluorescent, high intensity discharge) to LED lighting is currently transpiring. The primary driver for this shift has been energy and associated cost savings. LED lighting is now more efficacious than any of the conventional lighting technologies with room to still improve. Near term, phosphor converted LED packages have the potential for efficacy improvement from 160 lm/W to 255 lm/W. Longer term, color-mixed LED packages have the potential for efficacy levels conceivably as high as 330 lm/W, though reaching these performance levels requires breakthroughs in green and amber LED efficiency. LED package efficacy sets the upper limit to luminaire efficacy, with the luminaire containing its own efficacy loss channels. In this paper, based on analyses performed through the U.S. Department of Energy Solid State Lighting Program, various LED and luminaire loss channels are elucidated, and critical areas for improvement identified. Beyond massive energy savings, LED technology enables a host of new applications and added value not possible or economical with previous lighting technologies. These include connected lighting, lighting tailored for human physiological responses, horticultural lighting, and ecologically conscious lighting. Finally, none of these new applications would be viable if not for the high efficacies that have been achieved, and are themselves just the beginning of what LED lighting can do.

Two short articles in the Correspondence section.

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The goal of this LDRD is to develop a quantum nanophotonics capability that will allow practical control over electron (hole) and photon confinement in more than one dimension. We plan to use quantum dots (QDs) to control electrons, and photonic crystals to control photons. InGaN QDs will be fabricated using quantum size control processes, and methods will be developed to add epitaxial layers for hole injection and surface passivation. We will also explore photonic crystal nanofabrication techniques using both additive and subtractive fabrication processes, which can tailor photonic crystal properties. These two efforts will be combined by incorporating the QDs into photonic crystal surface emitting lasers (PCSELs). Modeling will be performed using finite-different time-domain and gain analysis to optimize QD-PCSEL designs that balance laser performance with the ability to nano-fabricate structures. Finally, we will develop design rules for QD-PCSEL architectures, to understand their performance possibilities and limits.

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On August 15, 2016, Sandia hosted a visit by Professor Venkatesh Narayanamurti. Prof Narayanamurti (Benjamin Peirce Research Professor of Technology and Public Policy at Harvard, Board Member of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, former Dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Harvard, former Dean of Engineering at UC Santa Barbara, and former Vice President of Division 1000 at Sandia). During the visit, a small, informal, all-day idea exploration session on "Towards an Engineering and Applied Science of Research" was conducted. This document is a brief synopsis or "footprint" of the presentations and discussions at this Idea Exploration Session. The intent of this document is to stimulate further discussion about pathways Sandia can take to improve its Research practices.

Improved validation for models of complex systems has been a primary focus over the past year for the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge. This document describes a set of research directions that are the result of distilling those ideas into three categories of research -- epistemic uncertainty, strong tests, and value of information. The content of this document can be used to transmit valuable information to future research activities, update the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge's roadmap, inform the upcoming FY18 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) call and research proposals, and facilitate collaborations between Sandia and external organizations. The recommended research directions can provide topics for collaborative research, development of proposals, workshops, and other opportunities.

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Wide band gap semiconductors like AlN typically cannot be efficiently p-doped: acceptor levels are far from the valence band-edge, preventing holes from activating. This means that pn-junctions cannot be created, and the semiconductor is less useful, a particular problem for deep Ultraviolet (UV) optoelectronics.

This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?

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III-nitride light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and laser diodes (LDs) are ultimately limited in performance due to parasitic Auger recombination. For LEDs, the consequences are poor efficiencies at high current densities; for LDs, the consequences are high thresholds and limited efficiencies. Here, we present arguments for III-nitride quantum dots (QDs) as active regions for both LEDs and LDs, to circumvent Auger recombination and achieve efficiencies at higher current densities that are not possible with quantum wells. QD-based LDs achieve gain and thresholds at lower carrier densities before Auger recombination becomes appreciable. QD-based LEDs achieve higher efficiencies at higher currents because of higher spontaneous emission rates and reduced Auger recombination. The technical challenge is to control the size distribution and volume of the QDs to realize these benefits. If constructed properly, III-nitride light-emitting devices with QD active regions have the potential to outperform quantum well light-emitting devices, and enable an era of ultra-efficient solid-state lighting. (Figure presented.) .

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Research, the manufacture of knowledge, is currently practiced largely as an “art,” not a “science.” Just as science (understanding) and technology (tools) have revolutionized the manufacture of other goods and services, it is natural, perhaps inevitable, that they will ultimately also be applied to the manufacture of knowledge. In this article, we present an emerging perspective on opportunities for such application, at three different levels of the research enterprise. At the cognitive science level of the individual researcher, opportunities include: overcoming idea fixation and sloppy thinking, and balancing divergent and convergent thinking. At the social network level of the research team, opportunities include: overcoming strong links and groupthink, and optimally distributing divergent and convergent thinking between individuals and teams. At the research ecosystem level of the research institution and the larger national and international community of researchers, opportunities include: overcoming performance fixation, overcoming narrow measures of research impact, and overcoming (or harnessing) existential/social stress.

Research, the manufacture of knowledge, is currently practiced largely as an “art,” not a “science.” Just as science (understanding) and technology (tools) have revolutionized the manufacture of other goods and services, it is natural, perhaps inevitable, that they will ultimately also be applied to the manufacture of knowledge. In this article, we present an emerging perspective on opportunities for such application, at three different levels of the research enterprise. At the cognitive science level of the individual researcher, opportunities include: overcoming idea fixation and sloppy thinking, and balancing divergent and convergent thinking. At the social network level of the research team, opportunities include: overcoming strong links and groupthink, and optimally distributing divergent and convergent thinking between individuals and teams. At the research ecosystem level of the research institution and the larger national and international community of researchers, opportunities include: overcoming performance fixation, overcoming narrow measures of research impact, and overcoming (or harnessing) existential/social stress.