As technical systems and social problems in modern society become ever more complex, many organizations are turning to what is commonly termed complexity science to find solutions. The problem many organizations face is that they frequently have no clear idea what they are trying to accomplish, no in-depth understanding of the nature, size and dimension of their problem, and only a limited understanding of what theoretical approaches and off-the-shelf analysis tools exist or are applicable to their particular problem. This paper examines the larger topic of complexity science, providing insight, and helping to place its promises in perspective.
In August 2017, Sandia convened five workshops to explore the future of advanced technologies and global peace and security through the lenses of deterrence, information, innovation, nonproliferation, and population and Earth systems.
Regulatory frameworks are a common tool in governance to incent and coerce behaviors supporting national or strategic stability. This includes domestic regulations and international agreements. Though regulation is always a challenge, the domain of fast evolving threats, like cyber, are proving much more difficult to control. Many discussions are underway searching for approaches that can provide national security in these domains. We use game theoretic learning models to explore the question of strategic stability with respect to the democratization of certain technologies (such as cyber). We suggest that such many-player games could inherently be chaotic with no corresponding (Nash) equilibria. In the absence of such equilibria, traditional approaches, as measures to achieve levels of overall security, may not be suitable approaches to support strategic stability in these domains. Altogether new paradigms may be needed for these issues. At the very least, regulatory regimes that fail to address the basic nature of the technology domains should not be pursued as a default solution, regardless of success in other domains. In addition, the very chaotic nature of these domains may hold the promise of novel approaches to regulation.
Nonrenewable resources are distributed unevenly throughout the world. Throughout history, the ability to access nonrenewable resources has been a source of geopolitical tension. Modern civilization is increasingly dependent on unevenly distributed resources that are traded globally. This cooperation has helped to increase resource security by increasing affordable access to resources around the world. The continued accessibility of nonrenewable resources is the key uncertainty to security over the next 15 to 25 years. Increased global demands for nonrenewable resources, fragility to resource shocks, and geopolitical upheavals may threaten nonrenewable resource security. A reduction in resource security could exacerbate defense and economic vulnerabilities to resource shocks, and increased fears of resource insecurity could drive conflict over resources leading to geopolitical upheavals. National security organizations can help build resource security by making investments that create resilience to resource shocks. They can also promote international cooperation that builds trust. Together, increased resilience to shocks and increased global trust should help reduce fears of resource insecurity and expand global cooperation on resource issues, thereby bolstering resource security.
“Technology empowerment” means that innovation is increasingly accessible to ordinary people of limited means. As powerful technologies become more affordable and accessible, and as people are increasingly connected around the world, ordinary people are empowered to participate in the process of innovation and share the fruits of collaborative innovation. This annotated briefing describes technology empowerment and focuses on how empowerment may create challenges to U.S. national security. U.S. defense research as a share of global innovation has dwindled in recent years. With technology empowerment, the role of U.S. defense research is likely to shrink even further while technology empowerment will continue to increase the speed of innovation. To avoid falling too far behind potential technology threats to U.S. national security, U.S. national security institutions will need to adopt many of the tools of technology empowerment.
On August 15, 2016, Sandia hosted a visit by Professor Venkatesh Narayanamurti. Prof Narayanamurti (Benjamin Peirce Research Professor of Technology and Public Policy at Harvard, Board Member of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, former Dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Harvard, former Dean of Engineering at UC Santa Barbara, and former Vice President of Division 1000 at Sandia). During the visit, a small, informal, all-day idea exploration session on "Towards an Engineering and Applied Science of Research" was conducted. This document is a brief synopsis or "footprint" of the presentations and discussions at this Idea Exploration Session. The intent of this document is to stimulate further discussion about pathways Sandia can take to improve its Research practices.
This report summarizes the results of a five-month LDRD late start project which explored the potential of enabling technology to improve the performance of small groups. The purpose was to investigate and develop new methods to assist groups working in high consequence, high stress, ambiguous and time critical situations, especially those for which it is impractical to adequately train or prepare. A testbed was constructed for exploratory analysis of a small group engaged in tasks with high cognitive and communication performance requirements. The system consisted of five computer stations, four with special devices equipped to collect physiologic, somatic, audio and video data. Test subjects were recruited and engaged in a cooperative video game. Each team member was provided with a sensor array for physiologic and somatic data collection while playing the video game. We explored the potential for real-time signal analysis to provide information that enables emergent and desirable group behavior and improved task performance. The data collected in this study included audio, video, game scores, physiological, somatic, keystroke, and mouse movement data. The use of self-organizing maps (SOMs) was explored to search for emergent trends in the physiological data as it correlated with the video, audio and game scores. This exploration resulted in the development of two approaches for analysis, to be used concurrently, an individual SOM and a group SOM. The individual SOM was trained using the unique data of each person, and was used to monitor the effectiveness and stress level of each member of the group. The group SOM was trained using the data of the entire group, and was used to monitor the group effectiveness and dynamics. Results suggested that both types of SOMs were required to adequately track evolutions and shifts in group effectiveness. Four subjects were used in the data collection and development of these tools. This report documents a proof of concept study, and its observations are preliminary. Its main purpose is to demonstrate the potential for the tools developed here to improve the effectiveness of groups, and to suggest possible hypotheses for future exploration.