Two perspectives are used to reframe Simonton’s recent three-factor definition of creative outcome. The first perspective is functional: that creative ideas are those that add significantly to knowledge by providing both utility and learning. The second perspective is calculational: that learning can be estimated by the change in probabilistic beliefs about an idea’s utility before and after it has played out in its environment. The results of the reframing are proposed conceptual and mathematical definitions of (a) creative outcome as the product of two overarching factors (utility and learning) and (b) learning as a function of two subsidiary factors (blindness reduction and surprise). Learning will be shown to depend much more strongly on surprise than on blindness reduction, so creative outcome may then also be defined as “implausible utility.”.
This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?
This white paper makes a case for Sandia National Laboratories investments in complex adaptive systems science and technology (S&T) -- investments that could enable higher-value-added and more-robustly-engineered solutions to challenges of importance to Sandia's national security mission and to the nation. Complex adaptive systems are ubiquitous in Sandia's national security mission areas. We often ignore the adaptive complexity of these systems by narrowing our 'aperture of concern' to systems or subsystems with a limited range of function exposed to a limited range of environments over limited periods of time. But by widening our aperture of concern we could increase our impact considerably. To do so, the science and technology of complex adaptive systems must mature considerably. Despite an explosion of interest outside of Sandia, however, that science and technology is still in its youth. What has been missing is contact with real (rather than model) systems and real domain-area detail. With its center-of-gravity as an engineering laboratory, Sandia's has made considerable progress applying existing science and technology to real complex adaptive systems. It has focused much less, however, on advancing the science and technology itself. But its close contact with real systems and real domain-area detail represents a powerful strength with which to help complex adaptive systems science and technology mature. Sandia is thus both a prime beneficiary of, as well as potentially a prime contributor to, complex adaptive systems science and technology. Building a productive program in complex adaptive systems science and technology at Sandia will not be trivial, but a credible path can be envisioned: in the short run, continue to apply existing science and technology to real domain-area complex adaptive systems; in the medium run, jump-start the creation of new science and technology capability through Sandia's Laboratory Directed Research and Development program; and in the long run, inculcate an awareness at the Department of Energy of the importance of supporting complex adaptive systems science through its Office of Science.
The Advanced Concepts Group of Sandia National Laboratories hosted a workshop, ''FOILFest: Community Enabled Security'', on July 18-21, 2005, in Albuquerque, NM. This was a far-reaching look into the future of physical protection consisting of a series of structured brainstorming sessions focused on preventing and foiling attacks on public places and soft targets such as airports, shopping malls, hotels, and public events. These facilities are difficult to protect using traditional security devices since they could easily be pushed out of business through the addition of arduous and expensive security measures. The idea behind this Fest was to explore how the public, which is vital to the function of these institutions, can be leveraged as part of a physical protection system. The workshop considered procedures, space design, and approaches for building community through technology. The workshop explored ways to make the ''good guys'' in public places feel safe and be vigilant while making potential perpetrators of harm feel exposed and convinced that they will not succeed. Participants in the Fest included operators of public places, social scientists, technology experts, representatives of government agencies including DHS and the intelligence community, writers and media experts. Many innovative ideas were explored during the fest with most of the time spent on airports, including consideration of the local airport, the Albuquerque Sunport. Some provocative ideas included: (1) sniffers installed in passage areas like revolving door, escalators, (2) a ''jumbotron'' showing current camera shots in the public space, (3) transparent portal screeners allowing viewing of the screening, (4) a layered open/funnel/open/funnel design where open spaces are used to encourage a sense of ''communitas'' and take advantage of citizen ''sensing'' and funnels are technological tunnels of sensors (the tunnels of truth), (5) curved benches with blast proof walls or backs, (6) making it easy for the public to report, even if not sure/''non-event'' (e.g. ''I'm uncomfortable'') and processing those reports in aggregate not individually, (7) transforming the resident working population into a part-time undercover security/sensor force through more innovative training and (8) adding ambassadors/security that engage in unexpected conversation with the public. The group recommended that we take actions to pursue the following ideas next: (a) A concept for a mobile sensor transport (JMP); (b) Conduct a follow-on workshop; (c) Conduct social experiments/activities to see how people would react to the concepts related to community and security; (d) Explore further aesthetically pleasing, blast-resistance seating areas; and (e) The Art of Freedom (an educational, multi-media campaign).
This report summarizes the results of a five-month LDRD late start project which explored the potential of enabling technology to improve the performance of small groups. The purpose was to investigate and develop new methods to assist groups working in high consequence, high stress, ambiguous and time critical situations, especially those for which it is impractical to adequately train or prepare. A testbed was constructed for exploratory analysis of a small group engaged in tasks with high cognitive and communication performance requirements. The system consisted of five computer stations, four with special devices equipped to collect physiologic, somatic, audio and video data. Test subjects were recruited and engaged in a cooperative video game. Each team member was provided with a sensor array for physiologic and somatic data collection while playing the video game. We explored the potential for real-time signal analysis to provide information that enables emergent and desirable group behavior and improved task performance. The data collected in this study included audio, video, game scores, physiological, somatic, keystroke, and mouse movement data. The use of self-organizing maps (SOMs) was explored to search for emergent trends in the physiological data as it correlated with the video, audio and game scores. This exploration resulted in the development of two approaches for analysis, to be used concurrently, an individual SOM and a group SOM. The individual SOM was trained using the unique data of each person, and was used to monitor the effectiveness and stress level of each member of the group. The group SOM was trained using the data of the entire group, and was used to monitor the group effectiveness and dynamics. Results suggested that both types of SOMs were required to adequately track evolutions and shifts in group effectiveness. Four subjects were used in the data collection and development of these tools. This report documents a proof of concept study, and its observations are preliminary. Its main purpose is to demonstrate the potential for the tools developed here to improve the effectiveness of groups, and to suggest possible hypotheses for future exploration.