The course goal is to provide participants with better understanding of the dynamic evolution between space policy, technology and world events in order to (1) anticipate the potential impacts of evolving space security policy on technical research and development needs for current and future space operations; (2) anticipate how technical research and development advancements might shape future directions and implementation of space security policy; and (3) develop more impactful research and development proposals and effective policy initiatives.
Telecommuting at Sandia and within the Federal workforce has been optional for years. With the COVID-19 crisis, social distancing makes this a necessity that may be with us for some weeks and even months to come. All of us - whether new to telecommuting or an experienced remote worker - are challenged with how to efficiently and effectively adapt to this new work environment, while maintaining work-life balance to adequately care for ourselves and loved ones.
In August 2017, Sandia convened five workshops to explore the future of advanced technologies and global peace and security through the lenses of deterrence, information, innovation, nonproliferation, and population and Earth systems.
Pakistani and Indian militaries have been occupying the Siachen Glacier and surrounding regions for decades. Although a cease-fire is in place, continued occupation carries the risk of an inadvertent conflict, which could escalate into a full-fledged nuclear-backed confrontation. Political and military analysts in Pakistan and India now question the strategic significance of the Siachen Glacier and agree that under the right circumstances, military withdrawal from the Siachen Glacier region would not adversely affect either state. The difficulty lies in conducting the withdrawal in such a way that neither side feels vulnerable, and in maintaining the demilitarization in a way that can be verified. In this paper, the authors who have both held command responsibilities in the Siachen Glacier region present a process for conducting and verifying the demilitarization of the Siachen Glacier region. The authors discuss the role of monitoring and verification tools and their relevance to this border zone of conflict.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.
It became clear during the workshop that the applicability of commercial satellite imagery to the verification of future regional arms control agreements is limited at this time. Non-traditional security topics such as environmental protection, natural resource management, and the development of infrastructure offer the more promising applications for commercial satellite imagery in the short-term. Many problems and opportunities in these topics are regional, or at least multilateral, in nature. A further advantage is that, unlike arms control and nonproliferation applications, cooperative use of imagery in these topics can be done independently of the formal Middle East Peace Process. The value of commercial satellite imagery to regional arms control and nonproliferation, however, will increase during the next three years as new, more capable satellite systems are launched. Aerial imagery, such as that used in the Open Skies Treaty, can also make significant contributions to both traditional and non-traditional security applications but has the disadvantage of requiring access to national airspace and potentially higher cost. There was general consensus that commercial satellite imagery is under-utilized in the Middle East and resources for remote sensing, both human and institutional, are limited. This relative scarcity, however, provides a natural motivation for collaboration in non-traditional security topics. Collaborations between scientists, businesses, universities, and non-governmental organizations can work at the grass-roots level and yield contributions to confidence building as well as scientific and economic results. Joint analysis projects would benefit the region as well as establish precedents for cooperation.
International relations are often devoted to establishing agreements that define, control, or regulate issues of potential conflict or dispute. These agreements span a full range of national and international issues from human rights to resource allocations and national security. The scope of these agreements can vary from bilateral arrangements to global treaties or control regimes. In many cases, elements of the agreement are monitored to verify compliance or increase confidence among parties that the terms of the agreement are being met. This article outlines options for cooperation on the Korean peninsula that could build confidence and reduce tension. The role of monitoring technology in helping to implement such agreements is also described.
The Korean Peninsula is one of the world`s most tense military confrontational sites. Nearly 2 million North Korean, South Korean, and U.S. troops face each other along the 255-km long military demarcation line. Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of both countries could decrease the danger of conflict and help create an environment where a peace regime might be negotiated. In spite of the present high level of mutual distrust, steps can still be taken to prepare for future development and implementation of CBMs. This paper defines some simple and specific first steps toward CBMs that might be useful on the Korean Peninsula.
The USDOE initiated the Production Risk Evaluation Program (PREP) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to assess quantitatively the potential for serious production disruption as the result of random failures, accidents, natural disasters, or sabotage at its facilities. SNL developed a procedure incorporating both network and fault tree models that identifies production vulnerabilities. For each production step, a steady-state flow model computers the "critical time,'' which is the maximum period a step can be shut down without preventing the system from achieving production goals. The critical time is then used in fault tree analysis to determine the failure modes that can stop the process for longer than this period. Modular logic modeling is used for constructing the fault trees. Equipment restorable within its critical time need not be considered critical even though it may perform significant work. This paper focuses on sabotage, but the methodology is applicable to analyzing the other production system vulnerabilities mentioned above. The PREP models can be used to identify those plant areas to which a saboteur would need to gain access. A security strategy using graded protection based on a PREP analysis potentially could reduce security costs. PREP methods also provide quantitative insights to develop protection measures that do not infringe upon the liberties of personnel or complicate work practices.