Publications

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This is a milestone report due in 2 weeks

Nonlinear modeling and optimization is a valuable tool for aiding decisions by engineering practitioners, but programming an optimization problem based on a complex electrical, mechanical, or chemical process is a time-consuming and error-prone activity. Therefore, there is a need for model analysis and debugging tools that can detect and diagnose modeling errors. One such tool is the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition, which identifies structurally under- and over-determined subsets in systems of equations and variables by partitioning the bipartite graph of the system. This work provides the necessary background to understand the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition and its application to the analysis of nonlinear optimization problems, demonstrates its use in diagnosing a variety of modeling errors, and introduces software implementations for analyzing nonlinear optimization problems in the Pyomo and JuMP algebraic modeling languages.

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A summary of causal loop diagram conceptual modeling performed under the Water Intersections with Climate Systems Security Strategic Initiative.

In this paper, an approach for 3D plasma structure diagnostics using tomographic optical emission spectroscopy (Tomo-OES) of a nanosecond pulsed atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ) is presented. In contrast to the well-known Abel inversion, Tomo-OES does not require cylindrical symmetry to recover 3D distributions of plasma light emission. Instead, many 2D angular projections are measured with intensified cameras and the multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique is used to recover the 3D distribution of light emission. This approach solves the line-of-sight integration problem inherent to optical diagnostics, allowing recovery of localized OES information within the plasma that can be used to better infer plasma parameters within complex plasma structures. Here, Tomo-OES was applied to investigate an APPJ operated with helium in ambient air and impinging on planar and structured dielectric surfaces. Surface charging caused the guided streamer from the APPJ to transition to a surface ionization wave (SIW) that propagated along the surface. The SIW experienced variable geometrical and electrical material properties as it propagated, leading to 3D configurations that were non-symmetric and spatially complex. Light emission from He, N 2 + , and N2 were imaged at ten angular projections and the respective time-resolved 3D emission distributions in the plasma were then reconstructed. The spatial resolution of each tomographic reconstruction was 7.4 µm and the temporal resolution was 5 ns, sufficient to observe the guided streamer and the effects of the structured surface on the SIW. Emission from He showed the core of the jet and emission from N 2 + and N2 indicated effects of entrainment of ambient air. Penning ionization of N2 created a ring or outer layer of N 2 + that spatially converged to form the ‘plasma bullet’ or spatially diverged across a surface as part of a SIW. The SIW entered trenches of size 150 µm, leading to decreases in plasma light emission in regions above the trenches. The plasma light emission was higher in some regions with trenches, possibly due to effects of field enhancement.

The methodology described in this article enables a type of holistic fleet optimization that simultaneously considers the composition and activity of a fleet through time as well as the design of individual systems within the fleet. Often, real-world system design optimization and fleet-level acquisition optimization are treated separately due to the prohibitive scale and complexity of each problem. This means that fleet-level schedules are typically limited to the inclusion of predefined system configurations and are blind to a rich spectrum of system design alternatives. Similarly, system design optimization often considers a system in isolation from the fleet and is blind to numerous, complex portfolio-level considerations. In reality, these two problems are highly interconnected. To properly address this system-fleet design interdependence, we present a general method for efficiently incorporating multi-objective system design trade-off information into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) fleet-level optimization. This work is motivated by the authors' experience with large-scale DOD acquisition portfolios. However, the methodology is general to any application where the fleet-level problem is a MILP and there exists at least one system having a design trade space in which two or more design objectives are parameters in the fleet-level MILP.

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Hydrogen diffusion in metals and alloys plays an important role in the discovery of new materials for fuel cell and energy storage technology. While analytic models use hand-selected features that have clear physical ties to hydrogen diffusion, they often lack accuracy when making quantitative predictions. Machine learning models are capable of making accurate predictions, but their inner workings are obscured, rendering it unclear which physical features are truly important. To develop interpretable machine learning models to predict the activation energies of hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys, we create a database for physical and chemical properties of the species and use it to fit six machine learning models. Our models achieve root-mean-squared errors between 98-119 meV on the testing data and accurately predict that elemental Ru has a large activation energy, while elemental Cr and Fe have small activation energies. By analyzing the feature importances of these fitted models, we identify relevant physical properties for predicting hydrogen diffusivity. While metrics for measuring the individual feature importances for machine learning models exist, correlations between the features lead to disagreement between models and limit the conclusions that can be drawn. Instead grouped feature importance, formed by combining the features via their correlations, agree across the six models and reveal that the two groups containing the packing factor and electronic specific heat are particularly significant for predicting hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys. This framework allows us to interpret machine learning models and enables rapid screening of new materials with the desired rates of hydrogen diffusion.

Advancements in space exploration and sample return technology present a unique opportunity to leverage sample return capsules (SRCs) towards studying atmospheric entry of meteoroids and asteroids. Specifically engineered for the secure transport of valuable extraterrestrial samples from interplanetary space to Earth, SRCs offer unexpected benefits that reach beyond their intended purpose. As SRCs enter the Earth’s atmosphere at hypervelocity, they are analogous to naturally occurring meteoroids and thus, for all intents and purposes, can be considered artificial meteors. Furthermore, SRCs are capable of generating shockwaves upon reaching the lower transitional flow regime, and thus can be detected by strategically positioned geophysical instrumentation. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer) SRC is one of only a handful of artificial objects to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere from interplanetary space since the end of the Apollo era and it will provide an unprecedented observational opportunity. This review summarizes past infrasound and seismic observational studies of SRC re-entries since the end of the Apollo era and presents their utility towards the better characterization of meteoroid flight through the atmosphere.

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As large systems of Li-ion batteries are being increasingly deployed, the safety of such systems must be assessed. Due to the high cost of testing large systems, it is important to extract key safety information from any available experiments. Developing validated predictive models that can be exercised at larger scales offers an opportunity to augment experimental data In this work, experiments were conducted on packs of three Li-ion pouch cells with different heating rates and states of charge (SOC) to assess the propagation behavior of a module undergoing thermal runaway. The variable heating rates represent slow or fast heating that a module may experience in a system. As the SOC decreases, propagation slows down and eventually becomes mitigated. It was found that the SOC boundary between propagation and mitigation was higher at a heating rate of 50 °C/min than at 10 °C/min for these cells. However, due to increased pre-heating at the lower heating rate, the propagation speed increased. Simulations were conducted with a new intra-particle diffusion-limited reaction model for a range of anode particle sizes. Propagation speeds and onset times were generally well predicted, and the variability in the propagation/mitigation boundary highlighted the need for greater uncertainty quantification of the predictions.

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Tritium exhibits unique environmental behavior because of its potential interactions with water and organic substances. Modeling the environmental consequences of tritium releases can be relatively complex and thus an evaluation of MACCS is needed to understand what updates, if any, are needed in MACCS to account for the behavior of tritium. We examine documented tritium releases and previous benchmarking assessments to perform a model intercomparison between MACCS and state-of-practice tritium-specific codes UFOTRI and ETMOD to quantify the difference between MACCS and state of practice models for assessing tritium consequences. Additionally, information to assist an analyst in judging whether a postulated tritium release is likely to lead to significant doses is provided.

Accurate targeting of radioisotope classifiers and estimators requires an understanding of the target problem space. In order to facilitate clear communication on expected model behavior and performance between practitioners and stakeholders on their problems, this questionnaire was created. Stakeholder responses form the basis of a trained model as well as the start of usage requirements for the model as it is integrated with analysis processes or detection systems. This questionnaire may also be useful to machine learning practitioners and gamma spectroscopists developing new algorithms as a starting point for characterizing their problem space, especially if they are using PyRIID.

Freeplay is a common type of piecewise-smooth nonlinearity in dynamical systems, and it can cause discontinuity-induced bifurcations and other behaviors that may bring about undesirable and potentially damaging responses. Prior research has focused on piecewise-smooth systems with two or three distinct regions, but less attention is devoted to systems with more regions (i.e., multi-segmented systems). In this work, numerical analysis is performed on a dynamical system with multi-segmented freeplay, in which there are four stiffness transitions and five distinct regions in the phase space. The effects of the multi-segmented parameters are studied through bifurcation diagram evolution along with induced multi-stable behavior and different bifurcations. These phenomena are interrogated through various tools, such as harmonic balance, basins of attraction, phase planes, and Poincaré section analysis. Results show that among the three multi-segmented parameters, the asymmetry has the strongest effect on the response of the system.

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity models are well correlated. However, maintaining a high level of correlation can be challenging, especially when models depend on different input uncertain parameters, which drastically reduces the correlation. Existing MF UQ approaches do not adequately address this issue. In this work, we propose a new sampling strategy that exploits a shared space to improve the correlation among models with dissimilar parameterization. We achieve this by transforming the original coordinates onto an auxiliary manifold using the adaptive basis (AB) method (Tipireddy and Ghanem, 2014). The AB method has two main benefits: (1) it provides an effective tool to identify the low-dimensional manifold on which each model can be represented, and (2) it enables easy transformation of polynomial chaos representations from high- to low-dimensional spaces. This latter feature is used to identify a shared manifold among models without requiring additional evaluations. We present two algorithmic flavors of the new estimator to cover different analysis scenarios, including those with legacy and non-legacy high-fidelity (HF) data. We provide numerical results for analytical examples, a direct field acoustic test, and a finite element model of a nuclear fuel assembly. For all examples, we compare the proposed strategy against both single-fidelity and MF estimators based on the original model parameterization.

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As Machine Learning (ML) continues to advance, it is being integrated into more systems. Often, the ML component represents a significant portion of the system that reduces the burden on the end user or significantly improves task performance. However, the ML component represents an unknown complex phenomenon that is learned from collected data without the need to be explicitly programmed. Despite the improvement in task performance, the models are often black boxes. Evaluating the credibility and the vulnerabilities of ML models poses a gap in current test and evaluation practice. For high consequence applications, the lack of testing and evaluation procedures represents a significant source of uncertainty and risk. To help reduce that risk, here we present considerations to evaluate systems embedded with an ML component within a red-teaming inspired methodology. We focus on (1) cyber vulnerabilities to an ML model, (2) evaluating performance gaps, and (3) adversarial ML vulnerabilities.

The benefits of high-performance unidirectional carbon fiber composites are limited in many cost-driven industries due to the high cost relative to alternative reinforcement fibers. Low-cost carbon fibers have been previously proposed, but the longitudinal compressive strength continues to be a limiting factor or studies are based on simplifications that warrant further analysis. A micromechanical model is used to (1) determine if the longitudinal compressive strength of composites can be improved with noncircular carbon fiber shapes and (2) characterize why some shapes are stronger than others in compression. In comparison to circular fibers, the results suggest that the strength can be increased by 10%–13% by using a specific six-lobe fiber shape and by 6%–9% for a three-lobe fiber shape. A slight increase is predicted in the compressive strength of the study two-lobe fiber but has the highest uncertainty and sensitivity to fiber orientation and misalignment direction. The underlying mechanism governing the compressive failure of the composites was linked to the unique stress fields created by the lobes, particularly the pressure stress in the matrix. This work provides mechanics-based evidence of strength improvements from noncircular fiber shapes and insight on how matrix yielding is altered with alternative fiber shapes.

The development of additively-manufactured (AM) 316L stainless steel (SS) using laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) has enabled near net shape components from a corrosion-resistant structural material. In this article, we present a multiscale study on the effects of processing parameters on the corrosion behavior of as-printed surfaces of AM 316L SS formed via LPBF. Laser power and scan speed of the LPBF process were varied across the instrument range known to produce parts with >99 % density, and the macroscale corrosion trends were interpreted via microscale and nanoscale measurements of porosity, roughness, microstructure, and chemistry. Porosity and roughness data showed that porosity φ decreased as volumetric energy density Ev increased due to a shift in the pore formation mechanism and that roughness Sq was due to melt track morphology and partially fused powder features. Cross-sectional and plan-view maps of chemistry and work function ϕs revealed an amorphous Mn-silicate phase enriched with Cr and Al that varied in both thickness and density depending on Ev. Finally, the macroscale potentiodynamic polarization experiments under full immersion in quiescent 0.6 M NaCl showed significant differences in breakdown potential Eb and metastable pitting. In general, samples with smaller φ and Sq values and larger ϕs values and homogeneity in the Mn-silicate exhibited larger Eb. The porosity and roughness effects stemmed from an increase to the overall number of initiation sites for pitting, and the oxide phase contributed to passive film breakdown by acting as a crevice former or creating a galvanic couple with the SS.

Characterizing interface trap states in commercial wide bandgap devices using frequency-based measurements requires unconventionally high probing frequencies to account for both fast and slow traps associated with wide bandgap materials. The C − ψ S technique has been suggested as a viable quasi-static method for determining the interface trap state densities in wide bandgap systems, but the results are shown to be susceptible to errors in the analysis procedure. This work explores the primary sources of errors present in the C − ψ S technique using an analytical model that describes the apparent response for wide bandgap MOS capacitor devices. Measurement noise is shown to greatly impact the linear fitting routine of the 1 / C S ∗ 2 vs ψ S plot to calibrate the additive constant in the surface potential/gate voltage relationship, and an inexact knowledge of the oxide capacitance is also shown to impede interface trap state analysis near the band edge. In addition, a slight nonlinearity that is typically present throughout the 1 / C S ∗ 2 vs ψ S plot hinders the accurate estimation of interface trap densities, which is demonstrated for a fabricated n-SiC MOS capacitor device. Methods are suggested to improve quasi-static analysis, including a novel method to determine an approximate integration constant without relying on a linear fitting routine.