Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.
Experiments offer incredible value to science, but results must always come with an uncertainty quantification to be meaningful. This requires grappling with sources of uncertainty and how to reduce them. In wind energy, field experiments are sometimes conducted with a control and treatment. In this scenario uncertainty due to bias errors can often be neglected as they impact both control and treatment approximately equally. However, uncertainty due to random errors propagates such that the uncertainty in the difference between the control and treatment is always larger than the random uncertainty in the individual measurements if the sources are uncorrelated. As random uncertainties are usually reduced with additional measurements, there is a need to know the minimum duration of an experiment required to reach acceptable levels of uncertainty. We present a general method to simulate a proposed experiment, calculate uncertainties, and determine both the measurement duration and the experiment duration required to produce statistically significant and converged results. The method is then demonstrated as a case study with a virtual experiment that uses real-world wind resource data and several simulated tip extensions to parameterize results by the expected difference in power. With the method demonstrated herein, experiments can be better planned by accounting for specific details such as controller switching schedules, wind statistics, and postprocess binning procedures such that their impacts on uncertainty can be predicted and the measurement duration needed to achieve statistically significant and converged results can be determined before the experiment.
In this work, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was performed on samples of a carbon fiber epoxy composite, a glass fiber epoxy composite, and a mixed carbon fiber/glass fiber epoxy composite, as well on each constituent material (polymer epoxy, carbon fibers and glass fibers). TGA was conducted for heating rates from 1-20 C/min with purified purge gases of nitrogen and dry air. For the fiberglass composite, we find that ~70% of the material remains after heating in air to 1200 C. For the carbon fiber epoxy composite, we observe greater mass loss as the carbon fibers can oxidize, leaving little material by the end of the test. The mixed composite, which has a 2:1 ratio of glass fibers to carbon fibers, experienced a total mass loss between the two other composites. By determining the relationship between the thermal decomposition of a composite material and its constituent materials, we can predict the fire behavior of novel composites during the material design phase.
The novel Hydromine harvests energy from flowing water with no external moving parts, resulting in a robust system with minimal environmental impact. Here two deployment scenarios are considered: an offshore floating platform configuration to capture energy from relatively steady ocean currents at megawatt-scale, and a river-based system at kilowatt-scale mounted on a pylon. Hydrodynamic and techno-economic models are developed. The hydrodynamic models are used to maximize the efficiency of the power conversion. The techno-economic models optimize the system size and layout and ultimately seek to minimize the levelized-cost-of-electricity produced. Parametric and sensitivity analyses are performed on the models to optimize performance and reduce costs.
This paper describes the methodology of designing a replacement blade tip and winglet for a wind turbine blade to demonstrate the potential of additive-manufacturing for wind energy. The team will later field-demonstrate this additive-manufactured, system-integrated tip (AMSIT) on a wind turbine. The blade tip aims to reduce the cost of wind energy by improving aerodynamic performance and reliability, while reducing transportation costs. This paper focuses on the design and modeling of a winglet for increased power production while maintaining acceptable structural loads of the original Vestas V27 blade design. A free-wake vortex model, WindDVE, was used for the winglet design analysis. A summary of the aerodynamic design process is presented along with a case study of a specific design.
The novel Hydromine harvests energy from flowing water with no external moving parts, resulting in a robust system with minimal environmental impact. Here two deployment scenarios are considered: an offshore floating platform configuration to capture energy from relatively steady ocean currents at megawatt-scale, and a river-based system at kilowatt-scale mounted on a pylon. Hydrodynamic and techno-economic models are developed. The hydrodynamic models are used to maximize the efficiency of the power conversion. The techno-economic models optimize the system size and layout and ultimately seek to minimize the levelized-cost-of-electricity produced. Parametric and sensitivity analyses are performed on the models to optimize performance and reduce costs.
