Publications

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The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

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Near-wall turbulence models in Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) typically approximate near-wall behavior using a solution to the mean flow equations. This approach inevitably leads to errors when the modeled flow does not satisfy the assumptions surrounding the use of a mean flow approximation for an unsteady boundary condition. Herein, modern machine learning (ML) techniques are utilized to implement a coordinate frame invariant model of the wall shear stress that is derived specifically for complex flows for which mean near-wall models are known to fail. The model operates on a set of scalar and vector invariants based on data taken from the first LES grid point off the wall. Neural networks were trained and validated on spatially filtered direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The trained networks were then tested on data to which they were never previously exposed and comparisons of the accuracy of the networks’ predictions of wall-shear stress were made to both a standard mean wall model approach and to the true stress values taken from the DNS data. The ML approach showed considerable improvement in both the accuracy of individual shear stress predictions as well as produced a more accurate distribution of wall shear stress values than did the standard mean wall model. This result held both in regions where the standard mean approach typically performs satisfactorily as well as in regions where it is known to fail, and also in cases where the networks were trained and tested on data taken from the same flow type/region as well as when trained and tested on data from different respective flow topologies.

We describe our work to embed a Python interpreter in S3D, a highly scalable parallel direct numerical simulation reacting flow solver written in Fortran. Although S3D had no in-situ capability when we began, embedding the interpreter was surprisingly easy, and the result is an extremely flexible platform for conducting machine-learning experiments in-situ.

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