Methane (CH4), an abundant greenhouse gas, is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide (CO2). In comparison to CO2, CH4 has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. While technologies to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions are materializing, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Methane is primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction/utilization and is currently monitored via bottom-up (i.e., activity level) or top-down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected, and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this report, we study methane leaks from oil and gas infrastructure using a tiered monitoring approach that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches in an integrated framework. We describe the individual advantages of bottom-up and top-down sensors in both stationary and mobile settings before characterizing how a fully integrated framework can improve predictions and uncertainties of potential leak locations and their emission rates. Further, we study the impact of different atmospheric (wind) conditions on integrated methane monitoring and develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement, thereby shortening detection times and improving monitoring capabilities. Last, we discuss how biogenic flux modeling can be used to improve assessment of background methane concentrations needed to fully assess the sensitivity of a tiered monitoring system.
Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.
The Structural Reliability Partnership Workshop was held in Albuquerque, NM on August 29-30, 2017 and was hosted by Sandia National Laboratories. Attendees were present from academia, industry and several other national laboratories. The workshop kicked off with an introduction to the SRP to familiarize potential members with what the purpose, structure and benefits would be to their organization. Technical overviews were given on several topics by attendees from each sector – national labs, universities and industry – to provide a snapshot of the type of work that is currently being conducted on structural reliability. Attendees were then given the opportunity to suggest and discuss potential Challenge Scenario topics. Three were ultimately decided upon as being the most important: Additive Manufacturing, Hydrogen Pipeline Steels, and Bolted Joined Structures. These were then analyzed using Quad Charts to determine What, How, Who, and Why these areas would be further investigated. Rather than restricting future research to only one area, the option was left open to investigate both the top two, depending on interest and cost associated with hosting such an event. More informal collaboration may be undertaken for the third topic if members have time and interest. Other items discussed pertained to the organization, structure and policies of the Partnership. Topics including Data Management, IP, and mechanisms of partnering/information sharing were touched upon but final decisions were not made. Further action is needed before this can be done. Action items were outlined and assigned, where possible. The next workshop is to be held in early August 2018 in Boulder, CO and is to be hosted by NIST. In the interim, quarterly updates are to take place via WebEx to maintain a line of communication and to ensure progress on both the administrative and technical tasks.
