Publications

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Protecting against multi-step attacks of uncertain start times and duration forces the defenders into indefinite, always ongoing, resource-intensive response. To allocate resources effectively, the defender must analyze and respond to an uncertain stream of potentially undetected multiple multi-step attacks and take measures of attack and response intensity over time into account. Such response requires estimation of overall attack success metrics and evaluating effect of defender strategies and actions associated with specific attack steps on overall attack metrics. We present a novel game-theoretic approach GPLADD to attack metrics estimation and demonstrate it on attack data derived from MITRE's ATT&CK Framework and other sources. In GPLADD, the time to complete attack steps is explicit; the attack dynamics emerges from attack graph and attacker-defender capabilities and strategies and therefore reflects 'physics' of attacks. The time the attacker takes to complete an attack step is drawn from a probability distribution determined by attacker and defender strategies and capabilities. This makes time a physical constraint on attack success parameters and enables comparing different defender resource allocation strategies across different attacks. We solve for attack success metrics by approximating attacker-defender games as discrete-time Markov chains and show evaluation of return on detection investments associated with different attack steps. We apply GPLADD to MITRE's APT3 data from ATT&CK Framework and show that there are substantial and un-intuitive differences in estimated real-world vendor performance against a simplified APT3 attack. We focus on metrics that reflect attack difficulty versus attacker ability to remain hidden in the system after gaining control. This enables practical defender optimization and resource allocation against multi-step attacks.

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The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories is a pulsed power facility for high-energy density physics experiments that can shock materials to extreme temperatures and pressures through a focused energy release of up to ∼ 25 MJ in < 100 nanoseconds. It has been in operation for more than two decades and conducts up to ∼ 100 experiments, or “shots,” per year. Based on a set of 74 known shot times from 2018, we determined that Z Machine shots produce detectable ∼ 3–17 Hz ground motion 12 km away at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, New Mexico (ANMO), borehole seismograph, with peak signal at ∼ 7 Hz. The known shot waveforms were used to create a three-component template, leading to the detection of 2339 Z Machine shots since 1998 through single-station cross-correlation. Local seismic magnitude estimates range from local magnitude (ML) -2 to -1.3 and indicate that only a small fraction of the shot energy is transmitted by seismic phases observable at 12 km distance. The most recent major facility renovation, which was intended to decrease mechanical dissipation, is associated with an abrupt decrease in observed seismic amplitudes at ANMO despite stable maximum shot energy. The highly repetitive impulsive sources are well suited to coda-wave interferometry to investigate time-dependent velocity structures. Relative velocity variations (dv/v) show an annual cycle with amplitude of ∼ 0.2%. Local minima are observed in the late spring, and dv/v increases through the summer monsoon rainfall, possibly reflecting patchy saturation as rainfall infiltrates near the eastern edge of the Albuquerque basin. The cumulative results demonstrate that forensic seismology can provide insight into long-term operation of facilities such as pulsed-power laboratories, and that their recurring signals may be valuable for studies of time-dependent structure.

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Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. This study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.

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Solving large number of small linear systems is increasingly becoming a bottleneck in computational science applications. While dense linear solvers for such systems have been studied before, batched sparse linear solvers are just starting to emerge. In this paper, we discuss algorithms for solving batched sparse linear systems and their implementation in the Kokkos Kernels library. The new algorithms are performance portable and map well to the hierarchical parallelism available in modern accelerator architectures. The sparse matrix vector product (SPMV) kernel is the main performance bottleneck of the Krylov solvers we implement in this work. The implementation of the batched SPMV and its performance are therefore discussed thoroughly in this paper. The implemented kernels are tested on different Central Processing Unit (CPU) and Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) architectures. We also develop batched Conjugate Gradient (CG) and batched Generalized Minimum Residual (GMRES) solvers using the batched SPMV. Our proposed solver was able to solve 20,000 sparse linear systems on V100 GPUs with a mean speedup of 76x and 924x compared to using a parallel sparse solver with a block diagonal system with all the small linear systems, and compared to solving the small systems one at a time, respectively. We see mean speedup of 0.51 compared to dense batched solver of cuSOLVER on V100, while using lot less memory. Thorough performance evaluation on three different architectures and analysis of the performance are presented.

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In magneto-inertial fusion, the ratio of the characteristic fuel length perpendicular to the applied magnetic field R to the α-particle Larmor radius Q α is a critical parameter setting the scale of electron thermal-conduction loss and charged burn-product confinement. Using a previously developed deep-learning-based Bayesian inference tool, we obtain the magnetic-field fuel-radius product B R ∝ R / Q α from an ensemble of 16 magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. Observations of the trends in BR are consistent with relative trade-offs between compression and flux loss as well as the impact of mix from 1D resistive radiation magneto-hydrodynamics simulations in all but two experiments, for which 3D effects are hypothesized to play a significant role. Finally, we explain the relationship between BR and the generalized Lawson parameter χ. Our results indicate the ability to improve performance in MagLIF through careful tuning of experimental inputs, while also highlighting key risks from mix and 3D effects that must be mitigated in scaling MagLIF to higher currents with a next-generation driver.