On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. Two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).
This article characterises the effects of cathode photoemission leading to electrical discharges in an argon gas. We perform breakdown experiments under pulsed laser illumination of a flat cathode and observe Townsend to glow discharge transitions. The breakdown process is recorded by high-speed imaging, and time-dependent voltage and current across the electrode gap are measured for different reduced electric fields and laser intensities. We employ a 0D transient discharge model to interpret the experimental measurements. The fitted values of transferred photoelectron charge are compared with calculations from a quantum model of photoemission. The breakdown voltage is found to be lower with photoemission than without. When the applied voltage is insufficient for ion-induced secondary electron emission to sustain the plasma, laser driven photoemission can still create a breakdown where a sheath (i.e. a region near the electrode surfaces consisting of positive ions and neutrals) is formed. This photoemission induced plasma persists and decays on a much longer time scale ( ∼ 10 s μ s) than the laser pulse length ( 30 ps). The effects of different applied voltages and laser energies on the breakdown voltage and current waveforms are investigated. The discharge model can accurately predict the measured breakdown voltage curves, despite the existence of discrepancy in quantitatively describing the transient discharge current and voltage waveforms.
Redox flow batteries (RFBs) that incorporate solid energy-storing materials are attractive for high-capacity grid-scale energy storage due to their markedly higher theoretical energy densities compared to their fully liquid counterparts. However, this promise of higher energy density comes at the expense of rate capability. In this work we exploit a ZnO nanorod-decorated Ni foam scaffold to create a high surface area Li metal anode capable of rates up to 10 mA cm−2, a 10× improvement over traditional planar designs. The ZnO nanorods enhance Li metal wettability and promote uniform Li nucleation, allowing the RFB to be initially operated with a prelithiated (charged) anode, or with a safety-conscious, Li-less, fully discharged anode. 5 mgS cm−1 were cycled using a mediated S cathode, whereby redox mediators help oxidize and reduce solid S particles. At 2.4 mgS cm−2 and 10 mA cm−2, the RFB becomes limited by the mediation of solid S. Nevertheless, a respectable energy density of 20.3 Wh L−1 is demonstrated, allowing considerable increase if the S mediation rate can be further improved. Lessons learned here may be broadly applied to RFBs with alkali metal anodes, offering an avenue for safe, dense, grid-scale energy storage.
This report represents completion of milestone deliverable M2SF-24SN010309082 Annual Status Update for OWL due on November 30, 2023. It contains the status of fiscal year 2023 (FY2023) updates for the Online Waste Library (OWL).
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) have collaborated on the design and execution of a set of critical experiments that explore the effects of molybdenum in water moderated fuel-rod arrays. The molybdenum is included as sleeves (tubes) on some of the fuel rods in the arrays. The fuel used in the experiments is known at Sandia as the Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) fuel. This fuel has been used is several published benchmark evaluations in including LEU-COMP-THERM-78 and LEU-COMP THERM-080.
Marine aerosol injections are a key component in further understanding of both the potentials of deliberate injection for marine cloud brightening (MCB), a potential climate intervention (CI) strategy, and key aerosol-cloud interaction behaviors that currently form the largest uncertainty in global climate model (GCM) predictions of our climate. Since the rate of spread of aerosols in a marine environment directly translates to the effectiveness and ability of aerosol injections in impacting cloud radiative forcing, it is crucial to understand the spatial and temporal extent of injected-aerosol effects following direct injection into marine environments. The ubiquity of ship-injected aerosol tracks from satellite imagery renders observational validation of new parameterizations possible in 2D, however, 3D compatible data is more scarce, and necessary for the development of subgrid scale parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions in GCMs. This report introduces two novel parameterizations of atmospheric aerosol injection behavior suitable for both 3D (GCM-compatible) and 2D (observation-related) modeling. Their applicability is highlighted using a wealth of different observational data: small and larger scale salt-aerosol injection experiments conducted at SNL, 3D large eddy simulations of ship-injected aerosol tracks and 2D satellite images of ship tracks. The power of experimental data in enhancing knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions is in particular emphasized by studying key aerosol microphysical and optical properties as observed through their mixing in cloud-like environments.
We report a spontaneous and hierarchical self-assembly mechanism of carbon dots prepared from citric acid and urea into nanowire structures with large aspect ratios (>50). Scattering-type scanning near-field optical microscopy (s-SNOM) with broadly tunable mid-IR excitation was used to interrogate details of the self-assembly process by generating nanoscopic chemical maps of local wire morphology and composition. s-SNOM images capture the evolution of wire formation and the complex interplay between different chemical constituents directing assembly over the nano- to microscopic length scales. We propose that residual citrate promotes tautomerization of melamine surface functionalities to produce supramolecular shape synthons comprised of melamine-cyanurate adducts capable of forming long-range and highly directional hydrogen-bonding networks. This intrinsic, heterogeneity-driven self-assembly mechanism reflects synergistic combinations of high chemical specificity and long-range cooperativity that may be harnessed to reproducibly fabricate functional structures on arbitrary surfaces.
A series of MD and DFT simulations were performed to investigate hydrogen self-clustering and retention in tungsten. Using a newly develop machine learned interatomic potential, spontaneous formation of hydrogen platelets was observed after implanting low-energy hydrogen into tungsten at high fluxes and temperatures. The platelets formed along low miller index orientations and neighboring tetrahedral and octahedral sites and could grow to over 50 atoms in size. High temperatures above 600 K and high hydrogen concentrations were needed to observe significant platelet formation. A critical platelet size of six hydrogen atoms was needed for long term stability. Platelets smaller than this were found to be thermally unstable within a few nanoseconds. To verify these observations, characteristic platelets from the MD simulations were simulated using large-scale DFT. DFT corroborated the MD results in that large platelets were also found to be dynamically stable for five or more hydrogen atoms. The LDOS from the DFT simulated platelets indicated that hydrogen atoms, particularly at the periphery of the platelet, were found to be at least as stable as hydrogen atoms in bulk tungsten. In addition, electrons were found to be localized around hydrogen atoms in the platelet itself and that hydrogen atoms up to 4.2 Å away within the platelet were found to share charge suggesting that the hydrogen atoms are interacting across longer distances than previously suggested. These results reveal a self-clustering mechanisms for hydrogen within tungsten in the absence of radiation induced or microstructural defects that could be a precursor to blistering and potentially explain the experimentally observed high hydrogen retention particularly in the near surface region.
Sandia National Laboratories and the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire have collaborated on the design and execution of a set of critical experiments that explore the effects of molybdenum in water-moderated fuel-rod arrays. The molybdenum was included as sleeves on some of the fuel rods in the critical experiment fuel arrays. Approach-to-critical experiments were performed on five configurations of fuel and molybdenum sleeves using the 7uPCX fuel in core hardware that set the triangular fuel rod pitch at 15.494 mm. The experiments are evaluated as benchmark critical experiments for the 2023 edition of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook as LEU-COMP-THERM-111.
NasGen provides a path for migration of structural models from Nastran bulk data format (BDF) into both an Exodus mesh file and an ASCII input file for Sierra Structural Dynamics (Salinas) and Solid Mechanics (Adagio). Many tools at Sandia National Labs (SNL) use the Exodus format. This document describes capabilities and limitations of the NasGen translation software.
The Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) generates a database containing energy deposition data. This data, when stored on an Exodus file, is not typically suitable for analysis within Sierra Mechanics for finite element analysis. The its2sierra tool maps data from the ITS database to the Sierra database. This document provides information on the usage of its2sierra.
The purpose of this proposal is to design a new integral critical experiment to investigate the effects of beryllium oxide and high assay low-enriched uranium fuels. this proposal considers using several existing resources at Sandia: (1) the Critical Experiments (SCX) facility and water tank, (2) spare UO2-BeO fuel for the Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR), and 7uPCX fuel rods from previous benchmark experiments.
Climate and its impacts on the natural environment, and on the ability of the natural environment to support population and the built environment, stands as a threat multiplier that impacts national and global security. The Water Intersections with Climate Systems Security (WICSS) Strategic Initiative is designed to improve understanding of water’s role in, among other topics, the connection of critical infrastructure to climate in light of competing national and global security interests (including transboundary issues and stability), and identifying research gaps aligned with Sandia, and Federal agency priorities. With this impetus in mind, the WICSS Strategic Initiative team conceptualized a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the relationship between and among climate, the natural environment, population, and the built environment, with an understanding that any such regionally focused system must have externalities that influence the system from beyond its’ control, and metrics for better understanding the consequences of the set of interactions. These are discussed in light of a series of worldviews that focus on portions of the overall systems relationship. The relationships are described and documented in detail. A set of reinforcing and balancing loops are then highlighted within the context of the model. Finally, forward-looking actions are highlighted to describe how this conceptual model can be turned into modeling to address multiple problems described under the purview of the Strategic Initiative.
Tritium exhibits unique environmental behavior because of its potential interactions with water and organic substances. Modeling the environmental consequences of tritium releases can be relatively complex and thus an evaluation of MACCS is needed to understand what updates, if any, are needed in MACCS to account for the behavior of tritium. We examine documented tritium releases and previous benchmarking assessments to perform a model intercomparison between MACCS and state-of-practice tritium-specific codes UFOTRI and ETMOD to quantify the difference between MACCS and state of practice models for assessing tritium consequences. Additionally, information to assist an analyst in judging whether a postulated tritium release is likely to lead to significant doses is provided.
This report documents the preliminary design phase of the Critical Experiment Design (CED-1) conducted as part of integral experiment request (IER) 523. The purpose of IER-523 is to determine critical configurations of 35 weight percent (wt%) enriched uranium dioxideberyllium oxide (UO2-BeO) material with Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) fuels at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia). Preliminary experiment design concepts, neutronic analysis results, and proposed paths for continuing the CED process are presented. This report builds on the feasibility and justification of experimental need report (CED-0) completed in December 2021.
Jurisdictions around the world are enacting and enforcing an increasing number of policies to fight climate change, leading to higher penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage systems (ESSs) in the power grid. One of the biggest challenges associated with this process is the evaluation of the appropriate amount of ESS required to mitigate the variability of the VREs and achieve decarbonization goals of a particular jurisdiction. This report presents methodologies developed and results obtained for determining the minimum amount of ESS required to adequately serve load in a system where fossil fueled generators are being replaced by VREs over the next two decades. This technical analysis is performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the DOE Office of Electricity Energy Storage Program in collaboration with the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC). The Illinois MISO Zone 4 is used as a case study. Several boundary conditions are investigated in this analysis including capacity adequacy and energy adequacy to determine the quantity of ESS required for MISO Zone 4. Multiple scenarios are designed and evaluated to incorporate the impact of varying capacity values of VREs and on the resource adequacy of the system. Several retirement scenarios involving fossil-fueled assets are also considered. Based on the current plans of new additions and retirements of generating assets, the results of the technical analysis indicate that Illinois MISO Zone 4 will require a significant quantity of ESS to satisfy their electricity demand over the next two decades.
Organic co-crystals have emerged as a promising class of semiconductors for next-generation optoelectronic devices due to their unique photophysical properties. This paper presents a joint experimental-theoretical study comparing the crystal structure, spectroscopy, and electronic structure of two charge transfer co-crystals. Reported herein is a novel co-crystal Npe:TCNQ, formed from 4-(1-naphthylvinyl)pyridine (Npe) and 7,7,8,8-tetracyanoquinodimethane (TCNQ) via molecular self-assembly. This work also presents a revised study of the co-crystal composed of Npe and 1,2,4,5-tetracyanobenzene (TCNB) molecules, Npe:TCNB, herein reported with a higher-symmetry (monoclinic) crystal structure than previously published. Npe:TCNB and Npe:TCNQ dimer clusters are used as theoretical model systems for the co-crystals; the geometries of the dimers are compared to geometries of the extended solids, which are computed with periodic boundary conditions density functional theory. UV-Vis absorption spectra of the dimers are computed with time-dependent density functional theory and compared to experimental UV-Vis diffuse reflectance spectra. Both Npe:TCNB and Npe:TCNQ are found to exhibit neutral character in the S0 state and ionic character in the S1 state. The high degree of charge transfer in the S1 state of both Npe:TCNB and Npe:TCNQ is rationalized by analyzing the changes in orbital localization associated with the S1 transitions.
Sierra/SD provides a massively parallel implementation of structural dynamics finite element analysis, required for high-fidelity, validated models used in modal, vibration, static and shock analysis of weapons systems. This document provides a user’s guide to the input for Sierra/SD. Details of input specifications for the different solution types, output options, element types and parameters are included. The appendices contain detailed examples, and instructions for running the software on parallel platforms.
The purpose of this report is to document updates on the apparatus to simulate commercial vacuum drying procedures at the Nuclear Energy Work Complex at Sandia National Laboratories. Validation of the extent of water removal in a dry spent nuclear fuel storage system based on drying procedures used at nuclear power plants is needed to close existing technical gaps. Operational conditions leading to incomplete drying may have potential impacts on the fuel, cladding, and other components in the system during subsequent storage and disposal. A general lack of data suitable for model validation of commercial nuclear canister drying processes necessitates well-designed investigations of drying process efficacy and water retention. Scaled tests that incorporate relevant physics and well-controlled boundary conditions are essential to provide insight and guidance to the simulation of prototypic systems undergoing drying processes. This report documents fiscal year 2023 (FY23) updates on the Advanced Drying Cycle Simulator (ADCS). This apparatus was built to simulate commercial drying procedures and quantify the amount of residual water remaining in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly after drying. The ADCS was constructed with a prototypic 17×17 PWR fuel skeleton and waterproof heater rods to simulate decay heat. These waterproof heaters are the next generation design to heater rods developed and tested at Sandia National Laboratories in FY20. In FY23, a series of four simulated commercial drying tests was completed. This report presents the temperature and pressure histories of the drying tests as well as axial temperature profiles that can be compared to data from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) High Burnup Demonstration TN-32B cask. Water content measurements and dew point calculations from a Hiden Analytical HPR-30 mass spectrometer are also presented in this report. Due to familiarization with this first-of-a-kind system, refinements to equipment calibration and test procedures have been identified to better match commercial drying cycles for future simulated tests. However, the presented data demonstrate the successful construction and operation of a viable research platform for quantifying residual water content closely approaching that expected in dry storage canisters during commercial drying procedures.
