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A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Environmental Modelling and Software

Villa, Daniel V.; Schostek, Tyler; Govertsen, Krissy; Macmillan, Madeline

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%–90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850–1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov–Smirnov p-value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67°C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

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Modeling-Based Assessment of Deep Seismic Potential Induced by Geologic Carbon Storage

Seismological Research Letters

Chang, Kyung W.; Yoon, Hongkyu Y.

Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. This study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.

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Rock Valley Dense Gravity Acquisition

Bodmer, Miles A.; Phillips, Joseph; Pine, Jesse; Turley, Reagan; Stanciu, Adrian

Characterizing the shallow structure of the Rock Valley region of the Nevada National Security Site is a critical component of the Rock Valley Direct Comparison project. Geophysical data of the region is needed for operational decisions, to constrain geologic models used for simulation, and to facilitate the analysis of future explosive source data. Local measurements of gravity are a key piece of geophysical information that helps to resolve the underlying geologic composition, fault structure, and density characteristics, yet, in the Rock Valley region these measurements are sparse on the scale of the testbed. In this report, we present the details of a recent gravity data acquisition survey designed to collect a dense dataset in the region of interest that complements the existing gravity work but greatly enhances our resolution. This dataset will be integrated with a complementary Los Alamos National Laboratory gravity collection and combined with the existing seismic data in a joint inversion. These measurements were conducted over two weeks with a portable gravimeter and high-resolution GPS and include repeat measurements at a USGS base station as well as reoccupation of gravity sites in the regional dataset. This collection of over 100 new dense gravity measurements will facilitate refinement of the existing Geologic Framework Model and directly complement newly acquired dense seismic data, ultimately improving the project’s ability to investigate the direct comparison of shallow earthquake and explosive sources.

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Performance Portable Batched Sparse Linear Solvers

IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems

Liegeois, Kim A.; Rajamanickam, Sivasankaran R.; Berger-Vergiat, Luc B.

Solving large number of small linear systems is increasingly becoming a bottleneck in computational science applications. While dense linear solvers for such systems have been studied before, batched sparse linear solvers are just starting to emerge. In this paper, we discuss algorithms for solving batched sparse linear systems and their implementation in the Kokkos Kernels library. The new algorithms are performance portable and map well to the hierarchical parallelism available in modern accelerator architectures. The sparse matrix vector product (SPMV) kernel is the main performance bottleneck of the Krylov solvers we implement in this work. The implementation of the batched SPMV and its performance are therefore discussed thoroughly in this paper. The implemented kernels are tested on different Central Processing Unit (CPU) and Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) architectures. We also develop batched Conjugate Gradient (CG) and batched Generalized Minimum Residual (GMRES) solvers using the batched SPMV. Our proposed solver was able to solve 20,000 sparse linear systems on V100 GPUs with a mean speedup of 76x and 924x compared to using a parallel sparse solver with a block diagonal system with all the small linear systems, and compared to solving the small systems one at a time, respectively. We see mean speedup of 0.51 compared to dense batched solver of cuSOLVER on V100, while using lot less memory. Thorough performance evaluation on three different architectures and analysis of the performance are presented.

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The 2021 Blind PVPMC Modeling Intercomparison

Theristis, Marios; Stein, Joshua S.

This document provides the instructions for participating in the 2021 blind photovoltaic (PV) modeling intercomparison organized by the PV Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC). It describes the system configurations, metadata, and other information necessary for the modeling exercise. The practical details of the validation datasets are also described. The datasets were published online in open access in April 2023, after completing the analysis of the results.

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Data-driven assessment of magnetic charged particle confinement parameter scaling in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments on Z

Physics of Plasmas

Laros, James H.; Mannion, Owen M.; Ruiz, Daniel E.; Jennings, Christopher A.; Knapp, Patrick K.; Gomez, Matthew R.; Harvey-Thompson, Adam J.; Weis, Matthew R.; Slutz, Stephen A.; Ampleford, David A.; Beckwith, Kristian B.

In magneto-inertial fusion, the ratio of the characteristic fuel length perpendicular to the applied magnetic field R to the α-particle Larmor radius Q α is a critical parameter setting the scale of electron thermal-conduction loss and charged burn-product confinement. Using a previously developed deep-learning-based Bayesian inference tool, we obtain the magnetic-field fuel-radius product B R ∝ R / Q α from an ensemble of 16 magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. Observations of the trends in BR are consistent with relative trade-offs between compression and flux loss as well as the impact of mix from 1D resistive radiation magneto-hydrodynamics simulations in all but two experiments, for which 3D effects are hypothesized to play a significant role. Finally, we explain the relationship between BR and the generalized Lawson parameter χ. Our results indicate the ability to improve performance in MagLIF through careful tuning of experimental inputs, while also highlighting key risks from mix and 3D effects that must be mitigated in scaling MagLIF to higher currents with a next-generation driver.

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Mutually magnetically insulated two-species Brillouin flow

Physics of Plasmas

Darr, Adam M.; Cartwright, Keith C.

In this work, we use the Brillouin flow analytic framework to examine the physics of Magnetically Insulated Transmission Lines (MITL). We derive a model applicable to any particle species, including both positive and negative ions, in planar and cylindrical configurations. We then show how to self-consistently solve for two-species simultaneously, using magnetically insulated electrons and positive ions as an example. We require both layers to be spatially separated and magnetically insulated (mutually magnetically insulated); for a 7.5 cm gap with a 2 MV bias voltage, this condition requires magnetic fields in excess of 2.73 T. We see a close match between mutually insulated MITL performance and “superinsulated” (high degree of magnetic insulation) electron-only theory, as may be expected for these high magnetic fields. However, the presence of ions leads to several novel effects: (1) Opposite to electron-only theory, total electron currents increase rather than decrease as the degree of magnetic insulation becomes stronger. The common assumption of neglecting electrons for superinsulated MITL operation must be revisited when ions are present—we calculate up to 20× current enhancement. (2) The electron flow layer thickness increases up to double, due to ion space-charge enhancement. (3) The contributions from both ions and electrons to the MITL flow impedance are calculated. The flow impedance drops by over 50% when ions fill the gap, which can cause significant reflections at the load if not anticipated and degrade performance. Additional effects and results from the inclusion of the ion layer are discussed.

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Results 1476–1500 of 96,771
Results 1476–1500 of 96,771