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KOMPASS-II: Compaction of Crushed salt for Safe Containment – Phase 2

Coulibaly, Jibril B.; Friedenberg, Larissa; Bartol, Jeroen; Foulk, James W.; Beese, Steffen; Czaikowski, Oliver; De Bresser, Hans; Dusterloh, Uwe; Eickemeier, Ralf; Gartzke, Anne; Hangx, Suzanne; Jantschik, Kyra; Laurich, Ben; Lerch, Christian; Lerche, Svetlana; Ludeling, Christoph; Mills, Melissa M.; Muller-Hoeppe, Nina; Popp, Till; Rabbel, Ole; Rahmig, Michael; Reedlunn, Benjamin; Rogalski, Abram; Rolke, Christopher; Saruulbayar, Nachinzorig; Spiers, Christopher J.; Svensson, Kristoff; Thiedau, Jan; Van Oosterhout, Bart; Zemke, Kornelia

Long-term stable sealing elements are a basic component in the safety concept for a possible repository for heat-emitting radioactive waste in rock salt. The sealing elements will be part of the closure concept for drifts and shafts. They will be made from a welldefinied crushed salt in employ a specific manufacturing process. The use of crushed salt as geotechnical barrier as required by the German Site Selection Act from 2017 /STA 17/ represents a paradigm change in the safety function of crushed salt, since this material was formerly only considered as stabilizing backfill for the host rock. The demonstration of the long-term stability and impermeability of crushed salt is crucial for its use as a geotechnical barrier. The KOMPASS-II project, is a follow-up of the KOMPASS-I project and continues the work with focus on improving the understanding of the thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) coupled processes in crushed salt compaction with the objective to enhance the scientific competence for using crushed salt for the long-term isolation of high-level nuclear waste within rock salt repositories. The project strives for an adequate characterization of the compaction process and the essential influencing parameters, as well as a robust and reliable long-term prognosis using validated constitutive models. For this purpose, experimental studies on long-term compaction tests are combined with microstructural investigations and numerical modeling. The long-term compaction tests in this project focused on the effect of mean stress, deviatoric stress and temperature on the compaction behavior of crushed salt. A laboratory benchmark was performed identifying a variability in compaction behavior. Microstructural investigations were executed with the objective to characterize the influence of pre-compaction procedure, humidity content and grain size/grain size distribution on the overall compaction process of crushed salt with respect to the deformation mechanisms. The created database was used for benchmark calculations aiming for improvement and optimization of a large number of constitutive models available for crushed salt. The models were calibrated, and the improvement process was made visible applying the virtual demonstrator.

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Use of Kerma for Subzone Dimension Specification in Monte Carlo Based Photon Energy Deposition Calculations

Depriest, Kendall R.; Franke, Brian C.

A technique using the photon kerma cross section for a material in combination with the number fraction from a photon energy spectrum has been developed to determine the estimated subzone dimension needed to provide an energy deposition profile in radiation transport calculations. The technique was verified using the ITS code for monoenergetic photon sources and a selection of photon spectra. A Python script was written to use the CEPXS cross-section file with a Rapture calculated transmission spectrum to provide the dimensional estimates in a rapid fashion. The script is available for SNL users through the corporate gitlab server.

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Storage Sizing and Placement Simulation: Quick-Start Case Study User’s Guide

Eddy, John P.; Vining, William F.; Tamrakar, Ujjwol

The Storage Sizing and Placement Simulation (SSIM) application allows a user to define the possible sizes and locations of energy storage elements on an existing grid model defined in OpenDSS. Given these possibilities, the software will automatically search through them and attempt to determine which configurations result in the best overall grid performance. This quick-start guide will go through, in detail, the creation of an SSIM model based on a modified version of the IEEE 34 bus test feeder system. There are two primary parts of this document. The first is a complete list of instructions with little-to-no explanation of the meanings of the actions requested. The second is a detailed description of each input and action stating the intent and effect of each. There are links between the two sections.

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Predicting EBW detonator failure using DSC data

Journal of Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry

Hobbs, Michael L.

Exploding bridgewire detonators (EBWs) containing pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) exposed to high temperatures may not function following discharge of the design electrical firing signal from a charged capacitor. Knowing functionality of these arbitrarily facing EBWs is crucial when making safety assessments of detonators in accidental fires. Orientation effects are only significant when the PETN is partially melted. Here, the melting temperature can be measured with a differential scanning calorimeter. Nonmelting EBWs will be fully functional provided the detonator never exceeds 406 K (133 °C) for at least 1 h. Conversely, EBWs will not be functional once the average input pellet temperature exceeds 414 K (141 °C) for a least 1 min which is long enough to cause the PETN input pellet to completely melt. Functionality of the EBWs at temperatures between 406 and 414 K will depend on orientation and can be predicted using a stratification model for downward facing detonators but is more complex for arbitrary orientations. A conservative rule of thumb would be to assume that the EBWs are fully functional unless the PETN input pellet has completely melted.

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Accurate equation of state of H2He binary mixtures up to 5.4 GPa

Physical Review. B

Clay III, Raymond C.; Duwal, Sakun; Seagle, Christopher T.; Zoller, Charlie M.; Hemley, Russell J.; Ryu, Young J.; Tkachev, Sergey; Prakapenka, Vitali; Ahart, Muhtar

Brillouin scattering spectroscopy has been used to obtain an accurate (<1%) ρ-P equation of state (EOS) of 1:1 and 9:1 H2-He molar mixtures from 0.5 to 5.4 GPa at 296 K. Our calculated equations of state indicate close agreement with the experimental data right to the freezing pressure of hydrogen at 5.4 GPa. The measured velocities agree on average, within 0.5%, of an ideal mixing model. The ρ-P EOSs presented have a standard deviation of under 0.3% from the measured densities and under 1% deviation from ideal mixing. Furthermore, a detailed discussion of the accuracy, precision, and sources of error in the measurement and analyses of our equations of state is presented.

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CO2 adsorption mechanisms at the ZIF-8 interface in a Type 3 porous liquid

Journal of Molecular Liquids

Rimsza, Jessica; Hurlock, Matthew; Nenoff, Tina M.; Christian, Matthew S.

Porous liquids (PLs) are an attractive material for gas separation and carbon sequestration due to their permanent internal porosity and high adsorption capacity. PLs that contain zeolitic imidazole frameworks (ZIFs), such as ZIF-8, form PLs through exclusion of aqueous solvents from the framework pore due to its hydrophobicity. The gas adsorption sites in ZIF-8 based PLs are historically unknown; gas molecules could be captured in the ZIF-8 pore or adsorb at the ZIF-8 interface. To address this question, ab initio molecular dynamics was used to predict CO2 binding sites in a PL composed of a ZIF-8 particle solvated in a water, ethylene glycol, and 2-methylimidazole solvent system. Further, the results show that CO2 energetically prefers to reside inside the ZIF-8 pore aperture due to strong van der Waals interactions with the terminal imidazoles. However, the CO2 binding site can be blocked by larger solvent molecules that have greater adsorption interactions. CO2 molecules were unable to diffuse into the ZIF-8 pore, with CO2 adsorption occurring due to binding with the ZIF-8 surface. Therefore, future design of ZIF-based PLs for enhanced CO2 adsorption should be based on the strength of gas binding at the solvated particle surface.

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Applying Sensor-Based Phase Identification With AMI Voltage in Distribution Systems

IEEE Access

Blakely, Logan; Reno, Matthew J.; Azzolini, Joseph A.; Jones, Christian B.; Nordy, David

Accurate distribution system models are becoming increasingly critical for grid modernization tasks, and inaccurate phase labels are one type of modeling error that can have broad impacts on analyses using the distribution system models. This work demonstrates a phase identification methodology that leverages advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data and additional data streams from sensors (relays in this case) placed throughout the medium-voltage sector of distribution system feeders. Intuitive confidence metrics are employed to increase the credibility of the algorithm predictions and reduce the incidence of false-positive predictions. The method is first demonstrated on a synthetic dataset under known conditions for robustness testing with measurement noise, meter bias, and missing data. Then, four utility feeders are tested, and the algorithm’s predictions are proven to be accurate through field validation by the utility. Lastly, the ability of the method to increase the accuracy of simulated voltages using the corrected model compared to actual measured voltages is demonstrated through quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. The proposed methodology is a good candidate for widespread implementation because it is accurate on both the synthetic and utility test cases and is robust to measurement noise and other issues.

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Large Destabilization of (TiVNb)-Based Hydrides via (Al, Mo) Addition: Insights from Experiments and Data-Driven Models

ACS Applied Energy Materials

Pineda Romero, Nayely; Witman, Matthew D.; Harvey, Kim; Stavila, Vitalie; Nassif, Vivian; Elkaim, Erik; Zlotea, Claudia

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) represent an interesting alloying strategy that can yield exceptional performance properties needed across a variety of technology applications, including hydrogen storage. Examples include ultrahigh volumetric capacity materials (BCC alloys → FCC dihydrides) with improved thermodynamics relative to conventional high-capacity metal hydrides (like MgH2), but still further destabilization is needed to reduce operating temperature and increase system-level capacity. In this work, we demonstrate efficient hydride destabilization strategies by synthesizing two new Al0.05(TiVNb)0.95-xMox (x = 0.05, 0.10) compositions. We specifically evaluate the effect of molybdenum (Mo) addition on the phase structure, microstructure, hydrogen absorption, and desorption properties. Both alloys crystallize in a bcc structure with decreasing lattice parameters as the Mo content increases. The alloys can rapidly absorb hydrogen at 25 °C with capacities of 1.78 H/M (2.79 wt %) and 1.79 H/M (2.75 wt %) with increasing Mo content. Pressure-composition isotherms suggest a two-step reaction for hydrogen absorption to a final fcc dihydride phase. The experiments demonstrate that increasing Mo content results in a significant hydride destabilization, which is consistent with predictions from a gradient boosting tree data-driven model for metal hydride thermodynamics. Furthermore, improved desorption properties with increasing Mo content and reversibility were observed by in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction, in situ neutron diffraction, and thermal desorption spectroscopy.

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Performance assessment for climate intervention (PACI): preliminary application to a stratospheric aerosol injection scenario

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Wheeler, Lauren B.; Zeitler, Todd Z.; Brunell, Sarah B.; Lien, Jessica; Shand, Lyndsay; Wagman, Benjamin M.; Roesler, Erika L.; Martinez, Carianne; Potter, Kevin M.

As the prospect of exceeding global temperature targets set forth in the Paris Agreement becomes more likely, methods of climate intervention are increasingly being explored. With this increased interest there is a need for an assessment process to understand the range of impacts across different scenarios against a set of performance goals in order to support policy decisions. The methodology and tools developed for Performance Assessment (PA) for nuclear waste repositories shares many similarities with the needs and requirements for a framework for climate intervention. Using PA, we outline and test an evaluation framework for climate intervention, called Performance Assessment for Climate Intervention (PACI) with a focus on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). We define a set of key technical components for the example PACI framework which include identifying performance goals, the extent of the system, and identifying which features, events, and processes are relevant and impactful to calculating model output for the system given the performance goals. Having identified a set of performance goals, the performance of the system, including uncertainty, can then be evaluated against these goals. Using the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) scenario, we develop a set of performance goals for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought index, soil water, solar flux, and surface runoff. The assessment assumes that targets may be framed in the context of risk-risk via a risk ratio, or the ratio of the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the SAI scenario against the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the emissions scenario. From regional responses, across multiple climate variables, it is then possible to assess which pathway carries lower risk relative to the goals. The assessment is not comprehensive but rather a demonstration of the evaluation of an SAI scenario. Future work is needed to develop a more complete assessment that would provide additional simulations to cover parametric and aleatory uncertainty and enable a deeper understanding of impacts, informed scenario selection, and allow further refinements to the approach.

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pvlib python: 2023 project update

Journal of Open Source Software

Anderson, Kevin S.; Hansen, Clifford; Holmgren, William F.; Mikofski, Mark A.; Jensen, Adam R.; Driesse, Anton

pvlib python is a community-developed, open-source software toolbox for simulating the performance of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy components and systems. It provides reference implementations of over 100 empirical and physics-based models from the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including solar position algorithms, irradiance models, thermal models, and PV electrical models. In addition to individual low-level model implementations, pvlib python provides high-level workflows that chain these models together like building blocks to form complete “weather-to-power” photovoltaic system models. It also provides functions to fetch and import a wide variety of weather datasets useful for PV modeling. pvlib python has been developed since 2013 and follows modern best practices for open-source python software, with comprehensive automated testing, standards-based packaging, and semantic versioning. Its source code is developed openly on GitHub and releases are distributed via the Python Package Index (PyPI) and the conda-forge repository. pvlib python’s source code is made freely available under the permissive BSD-3 license. Here we (the project’s core developers) present an update on pvlib python, describing capability and community development since our 2018 publication (Holmgren, Hansen, & Mikofski, 2018).

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Passive and active neutron signatures of 233U for nondestructive assay

Physical Review Applied

Searfus, O.; Marleau, P.; Uribe, Eva U.; Reedy, Heather A.; Jovanovic, Igor

The thorium fuel cycle is emerging as an attractive alternative to conventional nuclear fuel cycles, as it does not require the enrichment of uranium for long-term sustainability. The operating principle of this fuel cycle is the irradiation of 232Th to produce 233U, which is fissile and sustains the fission chain reaction. 233U poses unique challenges for nuclear safeguards, as it is associated with a uniquely extreme γ-ray environment from 232U contamination, which limits the feasibility of the γ-ray-based assay, as well as more conservative accountability requirements than for 235U set by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Consequently, instrumentation used for safeguarding 235U in traditional fuel cycles may be inapplicable. It is essential that the nondestructive signatures of 233U be characterized so that nuclear safeguards can be applied to thorium fuel-cycle facilities as they come online. In this work, a set of 233U3O8 plates, containing 984 g233U, was measured at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center. A high-pressure 4He gaseous scintillation detector, which is insensitive to γ-rays, was used to perform a passive fast neutron spectral signature measurement of 233U3O8, and was used in conjunction with a pulsed deuterium-tritium neutron generator to demonstrate the differential die-away signature of this material. Furthermore, an array of 3He detectors was used in conjunction with the same neutron generator to measure the delayed neutron time profile of 233U, which is unique to this nuclide. These measurements provide a benchmark for future nondestructive assay instrumentation development, and demonstrate a set of key neutron signatures to be leveraged for nuclear safeguards in the thorium fuel cycle.

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Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. I. Inverse Lagrangian analysis

Journal of Applied Physics

Davis, Jean-Paul; Brown, Justin L.

Absolute measurements of solid-material compressibility by magnetically driven shockless dynamic compression experiments to multi-megabar pressures have the potential to greatly improve the accuracy and precision of pressure calibration standards for use in diamond anvil cell experiments. To this end, we apply characteristics-based inverse Lagrangian analysis (ILA) to 11 sets of ramp-compression data on pure platinum (Pt) metal and then reduce the resulting weighted-mean stress-strain curve to the principal isentrope and room-temperature isotherm using simple models for yield stress and Grüneisen parameter. We introduce several improvements to methods for ILA and quasi-isentrope reduction, the latter including calculation of corrections in wave speed instead of stress and pressure to render results largely independent of initial yield stress while enforcing thermodynamic consistency near zero pressure. More importantly, we quantify in detail the propagation of experimental uncertainty through ILA and model uncertainty through quasi-isentrope reduction, considering all potential sources of error except the electrode and window material models used in ILA. Compared to previous approaches, we find larger uncertainty in longitudinal stress. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that uncertainty in the yield-stress model constitutes by far the largest contribution to uncertainty in quasi-isentrope reduction corrections. We present a new room-temperature isotherm for Pt up to 444 GPa, with 1-sigma uncertainty at that pressure of just under ± 1.2 % ; the latter is about a factor of three smaller than uncertainty previously reported for multi-megabar ramp-compression experiments on Pt. The result is well represented by a Vinet-form compression curve with (isothermal) bulk modulus K 0 = 270.3 ± 3.8 GPa, pressure derivative K 0 ′ = 5.66 ± 0.10 , and correlation coefficient R K 0 , K 0 ′ = − 0.843 .

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Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Journal of Applied Physics

Brown, Justin L.; Davis, Jean-Paul; Tucker, J.D.; Huerta, Jose G.; Shuler, Kurtis

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. In this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

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The Roadrunner Trap: A QSCOUT Device

Revelle, Melissa C.; Delaney, Matthew A.; Haltli, Raymond A.; Heller, Edwin J.; Nordquist, Christopher D.; Ou, Eric; Van Der Wall, Jay W.; Clark, Susan M.

The Roadrunner ion trap is a micro-fabricated surface-electrode ion trap based on silicon technology. This trap has one long linear section and a junction to allow for chain storage and reconfiguration. It uses a symmetric rf-rail design with segmented inner and outer control electrodes and independent control in the junction arms. The trap is fabricated on Sandia’s High Optical Access (HOA) platform to provide good optical access for tightly focused laser beams skimming the trap surface. It is packaged on our custom Bowtie-102 ceramic pin or land grid array packages using a 2.54 mm pitch for backside pins or pads. This trap also includes an rf sensing capacitive divider and tungsten wires for heating or temperature monitoring. The Roadrunner builds on the knowledge gained from previous surface traps fabricated at Sandia while improving ion control capabilities.

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Real time lithium metal calendar aging in common battery electrolytes

Frontiers in Batteries and Electrochemistry

Merrill, Laura C.; Long, Daniel M.; Rosenberg, Samantha G.; Foulk, James W.; Lam, Nhu; Harrison, Katharine L.

Li metal anodes are highly sought after for high energy density applications in both primary commercial batteries and next-generation rechargeable batteries. In this research, Li metal electrodes are aged in coin cells for a year with electrolytes relevant to both types of batteries. The aging response is monitored via electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, and Li electrodes are characterized post-mortem. It was found that the carbonate-based electrolytes exhibit the most severe aging effects, despite the use of LiBF4-based carbonate electrolytes in Li/CFx Li primary batteries. Highly concentrated LiFSI electrolytes exhibit the most minimal aging effects, with only a small impedance increase with time. This is likely due to the concentrated nature of the electrolyte causing fewer solvent molecules available to react with the electrode surface. LiI-based electrolytes also show improved aging behavior both on their own and as an additive, with a similar impedance response with time as the concentrated LiFSI electrolytes. Since I is in its most reduced state, it likely prevents further reaction and may help protect the Li electrode surface with a primarily organic solid electrolyte interphase.

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Pressure-based process monitoring of direct-ink write material extrusion additive manufacturing

Additive Manufacturing

Kopatz, Jessica W.; Reinholtz, William D.; Cook, Adam; Tappan, Alexander S.; Grillet, Anne M.

As additive manufacturing (AM) has become a reliable method for creating complex and unique hardware rapidly, the quality assurance of printed parts remains a priority. In situ process monitoring offers an approach for performing quality control while simultaneously minimizing post-production inspection. For extrusion printing processes, direct linkages between extrusion pressure fluctuations and print defects can be established by integrating pressure sensors onto the print head. In this work, the sensitivity of process monitoring is tested using engineered spherical defects. Pressure and force sensors located near an ink reservoir and just before the nozzle are shown to assist in identification of air bubbles, changes in height between the print head and build surface, clogs, and particle aggregates with a detection threshold of 60–70% of the nozzle diameter. Visual evidence of printed bead distortion is quantified using optical image analysis and correlated to pressure measurements. Importantly, this methodology provides an ability to monitor the quality of AM parts produced by extrusion printing methods and can be accomplished using commonly available pressure-sensing equipment.

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Manganese-based A-site high-entropy perovskite oxide for solar thermochemical hydrogen production

Journal of Materials Chemistry A

Bishop, Sean R.; Liu, Cijie; Liu, Xingbo; King, Keith A.; Sugar, Joshua D.; Mcdaniel, Anthony H.; Salinas, Perla A.; Coker, Eric N.; Foulk, James W.; Luo, Jian

Non-stoichiometric perovskite oxides have been studied as a new family of redox oxides for solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production owing to their favourable thermodynamic properties. However, conventional perovskite oxides suffer from limited phase stability and kinetic properties, and poor cyclability. Here, we report a strategy of introducing A-site multi-principal-component mixing to develop a high-entropy perovskite oxide, (La1/6Pr1/6Nd1/6Gd1/6Sr1/6Ba1/6)MnO3 (LPNGSB_Mn), which shows desirable thermodynamic and kinetics properties as well as excellent phase stability and cycling durability. LPNGSB_Mn exhibits enhanced hydrogen production (?77.5 mmol moloxide?1) compared to (La2/3Sr1/3)MnO3 (?53.5 mmol moloxide?1) in a short 1 hour redox duration and high STCH and phase stability for 50 cycles. LPNGSB_Mn possesses a moderate enthalpy of reduction (252.51-296.32 kJ (mol O)?1), a high entropy of reduction (126.95-168.85 J (mol O)?1 K?1), and fast surface oxygen exchange kinetics. All A-site cations do not show observable valence changes during the reduction and oxidation processes. This research preliminarily explores the use of one A-site high-entropy perovskite oxide for STCH.

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Uncovering anisotropic effects of electric high-moment dipoles on the tunneling current in $\delta$-layer tunnel junctions

Scientific Reports

Mendez Granado, Juan P.; Mamaluy, Denis

The precise positioning of dopants in semiconductors using scanning tunneling microscopes has led to the development of planar dopant-based devices, also known as δ layer-based devices, facilitating the exploration of new concepts in classical and quantum computing. Recently, it has been shown that two distinct conductivity regimes (low- and high-bias regimes) exist in δ-layer tunnel junctions due to the presence of quasi-discrete and continuous states in the conduction band of δ-layer systems. Furthermore, discrete charged impurities in the tunnel junction region significantly influence the tunneling rates in δ-layer tunnel junctions. Here we demonstrate that electrical dipoles, i.e. zero-charge defects, present in the tunnel junction region can also significantly alter the tunneling rate, depending, however, on the specific conductivity regime, and orientation and moment of the dipole. In the low-bias regime, with high-resistance tunneling mode, dipoles of nearly all orientations and moments can alter the current, indicating the extreme sensitivity of the tunneling current to the slightest imperfection in the tunnel gap. In the high-bias regime, with low-resistivity, only dipoles with high moments and oriented in the directions perpendicular to the electron tunneling direction can significantly affect the current, thus making this conductivity regime significantly less prone to the influence of dipole defects with low-moments or oriented in the direction parallel to the tunneling.

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Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing

Foulk, James W.; Nemani, Venkat; Fink, Olga; Biggio, Luca; Huan, Xun; Wang, Yan; Du, Xiaoping; Zhang, Xiaoge; Hu, Chao

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. Two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

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A greedy Galerkin method to efficiently select sensors for linear dynamical systems

Linear Algebra and Its Applications

Kouri, Drew P.; Udell, Madeleine; Hua, Zuhao

A key challenge in inverse problems is the selection of sensors to gather the most effective data. In this paper, we consider the problem of inferring the initial condition to a linear dynamical system and develop an efficient control-theoretical approach for greedily selecting sensors. Our method employs a Galerkin projection to reduce the size of the inverse problem, resulting in a computationally efficient algorithm for sensor selection. As a byproduct of our algorithm, we obtain a preconditioner for the inverse problem that enables the rapid recovery of the initial condition. We analyze the theoretical performance of our greedy sensor selection algorithm as well as the performance of the associated preconditioner. Finally, we verify our theoretical results on various inverse problems involving partial differential equations.

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Predictive maturity of non-linear concrete constitutive models for impact simulation

Nuclear Engineering and Design

Hogancamp, Joshua; Jones, Christopher

This paper explores the concept of predictive maturity for non-linear concrete constitutive models employed in the computational prediction of the structural response of reinforced concrete structures to impact from free-flying missiles. Such concrete constitutive models are widely varied in complexity. Three constitutive models were utilized within the same finite element structural model to simulate the response of the IRIS III experiment. Each of the models were individually calibrated with available material testing data and also re-calibrated assuming limited availability of test data. When full calibration is possible, more sophisticated constitutive models appear to provide more predictive maturity; however, when this data is not available (e.g. for an existing structure where representative test specimens may not be available), the expected maturity is reduced. Indeed, this hypothesis is supported by the simulations that indicate good agreement with measured experimental response quantities from the IRIS III tests with complex constitutive models and full calibration, and accordingly poor predictions when less complex models are used or when the more sophisticated models are poorly calibrated. Thus, predictions of structural response where complete material testing data is not obtainable should be understood as less predictive.

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Results 1501–1525 of 99,299
Results 1501–1525 of 99,299