Publications

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For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher-resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher-resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

The ECP Proxy Application Project has an annual milestone to assess the state of ECP proxy applications and their role in the overall ECP ecosystem. Our FY22 March/April milestone (ADCD- 504-28) proposed to: Assess the fidelity of proxy applications compared to their respective parents in terms of kernel and I/O behavior, and predictability. Similarity techniques will be applied for quantitative comparison of proxy/parent kernel behavior. MACSio evaluation will continue and support for OpenPMD backends will be explored. The execution time predictability of proxy apps with respect to their parents will be explored through a carefully designed scaling study and code comparisons. Note that in this FY, we also have quantitative assessment milestones that are due in September and are, therefore, not included in the description above or in this report. Another report on these deliverables will be generated and submitted upon completion of these milestones. To satisfy this milestone, the following specific tasks were completed: Study the ability of MACSio to represent I/O workloads of adaptive mesh codes. Re-define the performance counter groups for contemporary Intel and IBM platforms to better match specific hardware components and to better align across platforms (make cross-platform comparison more accurate). Perform cosine similarity study based on the new performance counter groups on the Intel and IBM P9 platforms. Perform detailed analysis of performance counter data to accurately average and align the data to maintain phases across all executions and develop methods to reduce the set of collected performance counters used in cosine similarity analysis. Apply a quantitative similarity comparison between proxy and parent CPU kernels. Perform scaling studies to understand the accuracy of predictability of the parent performance using its respective proxy application. This report presents highlights of these efforts.

As the push towards exascale hardware has increased the diversity of system architectures, performance portability has become a critical aspect for scientific software. We describe the Kokkos Performance Portable Programming Model that allows developers to write single source applications for diverse high performance computing architectures. Kokkos provides key abstractions for both the compute and memory hierarchy of modern hardware. Here, we describe the novel abstractions that have been added to Kokkos recently such as hierarchical parallelism, containers, task graphs, and arbitrary-sized atomic operations. We demonstrate the performance of these new features with reproducible benchmarks on CPUs and GPUs.

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The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.

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Lignin is often overlooked in the valorization of lignocellulosic biomass, but lignin-based materials and chemicals represent potential value-added products for biorefineries that could significantly improve the economics of a biorefinery. Fluctuating crude oil prices and changing fuel specifications are some of the driving factors to develop new technologies that could be used to convert polymeric lignin into low molecular weight lignin and or monomeric aromatic feedstocks to assist in the displacement of the current products associated with the conversion of a whole barrel of oil. Our project of understanding microbial lignolysis for renewable platform chemicals aimed to understand microbial and enzymatic lignolysis processes to break down lignin for conversion into commercially viable drop-in fuels. We developed novel lignin analytics to interrogate enzymatic and microbial lignolysis of native polymeric lignin and established a detailed understanding of lignolysis as a function of fungal enzyme, microbes and endophytes. Bioinformatics pipeline was developed for metatranscryptomic analysis of aridland ecosystem for investigating the potential discovery of new lignolysis gene and gene products.

Increasing energy costs, the dependence on foreign oil supplies, and environmental concerns have emphasized the need to produce sustainable renewable fuels and chemicals. The strategy for producing next-generation biofuels must include efficient processes for biomass conversion to liquid fuels and the fuels must be compatible with current and future engines. Unfortunately, biofuel development generally takes place without any consideration of combustion characteristics, and combustion scientists typically measure biofuels properties without any feedback to the production design. We seek to optimize the fuel/engine system by bringing combustion performance, specifically for advanced next-generation engines, into the development of novel biosynthetic fuel pathways. Here we report an innovative coupling of combustion chemistry, from fundamentals to engine measurements, to the optimization of fuel production using metabolic engineering. We have established the necessary connections among the fundamental chemistry, engine science, and synthetic biology for fuel production, building a powerful framework for co-development of engines and biofuels.

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