Publications

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Principal component analysis (PCA) reduces dimensionality by generating uncorrelated variables and improves the interpretability of the sample space. This analysis focused on assessing the value of PCA for improving the classification accuracy of failures within current-voltage (IV) traces. Our results show that combining PCA with random forests improves classification by only ~1% (bringing the accuracy to >99%), compared to a baseline of only random forests (without PCA) of >98%. The inclusion of PCA, however, does provide an opportunity to study an interesting representation of all of the features on a single, two-dimensional feature space. A visualization of the first two principal components (similar to IV profile but rotated) captures how the inclusion of a current differential feature causes a notable separation between failure modes due to their effect on the slope. This work continues the discussion of generating different ways of extracting information from the IV curve, which can help with failure classification - especially for failures that only exhibit marginal profile changes in IV curves.

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Sandia National Laboratories is part of the government test and evaluation team for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Collection and Monitoring via Planning for Active Situational Scenarios program. The program is designed to better understand competition in the area between peace and conventional conflict when adversary actions are subtle and difficult to detect. For the purposes of test and evaluation, Sandia conducted a range of activities for the program: creation of the Grey Zone Test Range; design of the data stream for a user experiment conducted with U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; design, implementation, and execution of the formal evaluation; and analysis and summary of the evaluation results. This report details Sandia's activities and provides additional information on the Grey Zone Test Range urban simulation environment developed to evaluate the performer technologies.

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Accurately predicting power generation for PV sites is critical for prioritizing relevant operations & maintenance activities, thereby extending the lifetime of a system and improving profit margins. A number of factors influence power generation at PV sites, including local weather, shading and soiling losses, design of modules, DC mismatches, and degradation over time. Other external factors such as curtailment and grid outages can also have a notable impact on power generation. Machine learning techniques can be used to provide more accurate predictions of PV power production by accounting for important weather and climate information neglected by current industry methods. This article will cover the deficiencies of those methods and will show how machine learning can dramatically improve power generation predictions.

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Accurate diagnosis of failures is critical for meeting photovoltaic (PV) performance objectives and avoiding safety concerns. This analysis focuses on the classification of field-collected string-level current-voltage (IV) curves representing baseline, partial soiling, and cracked failure modes. Specifically, multiple neural network-based architectures (including convolutional and long short-term memory) are evaluated using domain-informed parameters across different portions of the IV curve and a range of irradiance thresholds. The analysis identified two models that were able to accurately classify the relatively small dataset (400 samples) at a high accuracy (99%+). Findings also indicate optimal irradiance thresholds and opportunities for improvements in classification activities by focusing on portions of the IV curve. Such advancements are critical for expanding accurate classification of PV faults, especially for those with low power loss (e.g., cracked cells) or visibly similar IV curve profiles.

Inverters are a leading source of hardware failures and contribute to significant energy losses at photovoltaic (PV) sites. An understanding of failure modes within inverters requires evaluation of a dataset that captures insights from multiple characterization techniques (including field diagnostics, production data analysis, and current-voltage curves). One readily available dataset that can be leveraged to support such an evaluation are maintenance records, which are used to log all site-related technician activities, but vary in structuring of information. Using machine learning, this analysis evaluated a database of 55,000 maintenance records across 800+ sites to identify inverter-related records and consistently categorize them to gain insight into common failure modes within this critical asset. Communications, ground faults, heat management systems, and insulated gate bipolar transistors emerge as the most frequently discussed inverter subsystems. Further evaluation of these failure modes identified distinct variations in failure frequencies over time and across inverter types, with communication failures occurring more frequently in early years. Increased understanding of these failure patterns can inform ongoing PV system reliability activities, including simulation analyses, spare parts inventory management, cost estimates for operations and maintenance, and development of standards for inverter testing. Advanced implementations of machine learning techniques coupled with standardization of asset labels and descriptions can extend these insights into actionable information that can support development of algorithms for condition-based maintenance, which could further reduce failures and associated energy losses at PV sites.

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We show seasonal runoff from montane uplands is crucial for plant growth in agricultural communities of northern New Mexico. These communities typically employ traditional irrigation systems, called acequias, which rely mainly upon spring snowmelt runoff for irrigation. The trend of the past few decades is an increase in temperature, reduced snow pack, and earlier runoff from snowmelt across much of the western United States. In order to predict the potential impacts of changes in future climate a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the surface water supplies in a montane upland watershed of a small irrigated community in northern New Mexico through the rest of the 21^st century. End-term simulations of representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 suggest that runoff during the months of April to August could be reduced by 22% and 56%, respectively. End-term simulations also displayed a shift in the beginning and peak of snowmelt runoff by up to one month earlier than current conditions. Results suggest that rising temperatures will drive reduced runoff in irrigation season and earlier snowmelt runoff in the dry season towards the end of the 21^st century. Modeled results suggest that climate change leads to runoff scheme shift and increased frequency of drought; due to the uncontemporaneous of irrigation season and runoff scheme, water shortage will increase. Potential impacts of climate change scenarios and mitigation strategies should be further investigated to ensure the resilience of traditional agricultural communities in New Mexico and similar regions.

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Food, energy, and water (FEW) are primary resources required for human populations and ecosystems. Availability of the raw resources is essential, but equally important are the services that deliver resources to human populations, such as adequate access to safe drinking water, electricity, and sufficient food. Any failures in either resource availability or FEW resources-related services will have an impact on human health. The ability of countries to intervene and overcome the challenges in the FEW domain depends on governance, education, and economic capacities. We distinguish between FEW resources, FEW services, and FEW health outcomes to develop an analysis framework for evaluating interrelationships among these critical resources. The framework is applied using a data-driven approach for sub-Saharan African countries, a region with notable FEW insecurity challenges. The data-driven approach using a cross-validated stepwise regression analysis indicates that limited governance and socioeconomic capacity in sub-Saharan African countries, rather than lack of the primary resources, more significantly impact access to FEW services and associated health outcomes. The proposed framework helps develop a cohesive approach for evaluating FEW metrics and could be applied to other regions of the world to continue improving our understanding of the FEW nexus.

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The IEC 61215 and Qualification Plus indoor aging tests are recognized as valuable assessment procedures for identifying photovoltaic (PV) modules that are prone to early-life failures or excessive degradation. However, it is unclear how well the tests match with reality, and if they can predict in-field performance. Therefore, the present work performed indoor-aging thermal cycling tests on pristine-condition modules and evaluated, using in-field current and voltage (I-V) curve scans, modules of the same make and model exposed to the actual environment within a production field. The experiment included the estimate of the overall exposure to thermal cycling in both indoor and outdoor environments, the extraction of the series resistance from the I-V curves, the development of a model based on the indoor results, and finally the testing of the model on outdoor exposure amounts to predict actual changes in resistance. Index Terms - photovoltaic, accelerated aging, series resistance.

There is growing interest in nexus research: energy-water, energy-water-land, and more recently food-energy-water. Motivating this movement is the recognition that the dynamics and feedbacks that constitute these nexuses have been overlooked in the past but are critical to the planning and management of these interacting elements. Formal reviews have identified gaps in current studies. In this commentary, we highlight additional oversights that are hindering integration of findings in nexus studies, notably usage of imprecise terminology to describe analyses, a failure to close the loop by linking production with corresponding waste streams, and exclusion of dynamics linking diverse constituent elements. Equally lacking from current nexus studies is a consistent protocol for communicating the conceptual basis of our studies. To fill this gap, we draw on diverse perspectives and fields to propose a comprehensive and systematic framework that can guide the model conceptualization phase of nexus studies. We also present a standardized documentation practice (similar to one utilized by the agent-based modeling community) to facilitate communication of nexus studies. These initiatives can improve our ability to account for and communicate the nuanced, food-energy-water nexus interactions in a consistent manner, which is necessary to better inform risk analysis and avoid decisions with unintended consequences and hidden costs to society.

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Narratives about water resources have evolved, transitioning from a sole focus on physical and biological dimensions to incorporate social dynamics Recently, the importance of understanding the visibility of water resources through media coverage has gained attention. This study leverages recent advancements in natural language processing (NLP) methods to characterize and understand patterns in water narratives, specifically in 4 local newspapers in Utah and Georgia. Analysis of the corpus identified coherent topics on a variety of water resources issues, including weather and pollution. Closer inspection of the topics revealed temporal and spatial variations in coverage, with a topic on hurricanes exhibiting cyclical patterns whereas a topic on tribal issues showed coverage predominantly in the western newspapers. We also analyzed the dataset for sentiments, identifying similar categories of words on trust and fear emerging in the narratives across newspaper sources. An analysis of novelty, transience, and resonance using Kullback-Leibler Divergence techniques revealed that topics with high novelty generally contained high transience and marginally high resonance over time. Although additional analysis needs to be conducted, the methods explored in this analysis demonstrate the potential of NLP methods to characterize water narratives in media coverage.

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As the technological world expands, vulnerabilities of our critical infrastructure are becoming clear. Fortunately, emerging services provide an opportunity to improve the efficiency and security of current practices. In particular, serverless computing (such as Amazon Web Services and REDFISHs Acequia) provide opportunities to improve current practices. However, the critical infrastructure needs to evolve and that will require due diligence to ensure that transferring aspects of its practices onto the internet is done in a secure manner.

Sociohydrological studies use interdisciplinary approaches to explore the complex interactions between physical and social water systems and increase our understanding of emergent and paradoxical system behaviors. The dynamics of community values and social cohesion, however, have received little attention in modeling studies due to quantification challenges. Social structures associated with community-managed irrigation systems around the world, in particular, reflect these communities' experiences with a multitude of natural and social shocks. Using the Valdez acequia (a communally-managed irrigation community in northern New Mexico) as a simulation case study, we evaluate the impact of that community's social structure in governing its responses to water availability stresses posed by climate change. Specifically, a system dynamics model (developed using insights from community stakeholders and multiple disciplines that captures biophysical, socioeconomic, and sociocultural dynamics of acequia systems) was used to generate counterfactual trajectories to explore how the community would behave with streamflow conditions expected under climate change. We found that earlier peak flows, combined with adaptive measures of shifting crop selection, allowed for greater production of higher value crops and fewer people leaving the acequia. The economic benefits were lost, however, if downstream water pressures increased. Even with significant reductions in agricultural profitability, feedbacks associated with community cohesion buffered the community's population and land parcel sizes from more detrimental impacts, indicating the community's resilience under natural and social stresses. In conclusion, continued exploration of social structures is warranted to better understand these systems' responses to stress and identify possible leverage points for strengthening community resilience.

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