Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.
Sandia's Academic Alliance (SAA) program takes a deliberate approach to building partnerships with universities that combine strengths in key academic disciplines, contain sizable portfolios of relevant research capabilities, and demonstrate a strong institutional commitment to national security. The SAA Program aims to solve significant problems that Sandia could not address alone, sustain and enrich Sandia's talent pipeline, and accelerate the commercialization and adoption of new technologies.
This report summarizes research on a holistic analysis framework to assess and manage risks in complex infrastructures, with a specific focus on the bulk electric power grid (grid). A comprehensive model of the grid is described that can approximate the coupled dynamics of its physical, control, and market components. New realism is achieved in a power simulator extended to include relevant control features such as relays. The simulator was applied to understand failure mechanisms in the grid. Results suggest that the implementation of simple controls might significantly alter the distribution of cascade failures in power systems. The absence of cascade failures in our results raises questions about the underlying failure mechanisms responsible for widespread outages, and specifically whether these outages are due to a system effect or large-scale component degradation. Finally, a new agent-based market model for bilateral trades in the short-term bulk power market is presented and compared against industry observations.
The authors understanding of multiphase physics and the associated predictive capability for multi-phase systems are severely limited by current continuum modeling methods and experimental approaches. This research will deliver an unprecedented modeling capability to directly simulate three-dimensional multi-phase systems at the particle-scale. The model solves the fully coupled equations of motion governing the fluid phase and the individual particles comprising the solid phase using a newly discovered, highly efficient coupled numerical method based on the discrete-element method and the Lattice-Boltzmann method. A massively parallel implementation will enable the solution of large, physically realistic systems.
Processes that involve particle-laden fluids are common in geomechanics and especially in the petroleum industry. Understanding the physics of these processes and the ability to predict their behavior requires the development of coupled fluid-flow and particle-motion computational methods. This paper outlines an accurate and robust coupled computational scheme using the lattice-Boltzmann method for fluid flow and the discrete-element method for solid particle motion. Results from several two-dimensional validation simulations are presented. Simulations reported include the sedimentation of an ellipse, a disc and two interacting discs in a closed column of fluid. The recently discovered phenomenon of drafting, kissing, and tumbling is fully reproduced in the two-disc simulation.
