The geodetically derived interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) provides a first-order constraint on earthquake potential and can play an important role in seismic hazard assessment, but quantifying uncertainty in MDR is a challenging problem that has not been fully addressed. We establish criteria for reliable MDR estimators, evaluate existing methods for determining the probability density of MDR, and propose and evaluate new methods. Geodetic measurements moderately far from the fault provide tighter constraints on MDR than those nearby. Previously used methods can fail catastrophically under predictable circumstances. The bootstrap method works well with strong data constraints on MDR, but can be strongly biased when network geometry is poor. We propose two new methods: the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator (COBE) assumes uniform priors on slip rate (from geologic information) and MDR, and can be shown through synthetic tests to be a useful, albeit conservative estimator; the Constrained Optimization Bounding Linear Estimator (COBLE) is the corresponding linear estimator with Gaussian priors rather than point-wise bounds on slip rates. COBE matches COBLE with strong data constraints on MDR. We compare results from COBE and COBLE to previously published results for the interseismic MDR at Parkfield, on the San Andreas Fault, and find similar results; thus, the apparent discrepancy between MDR and the total moment release (seismic and afterslip) in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake remains.
LAMMPS is a classical molecular dynamics code (lammps.sandia.gov) used to model materials science problems at Sandia National Laboratories and around the world. LAMMPS was one of three Sandia codes selected to participate in the Trinity KNL (TR2) Open Science period. During this period, three different problems of interest were investigated using LAMMPS. The first was benchmarking KNL performance using different force field models. The second was simulating void collapse in shocked HNS energetic material using an all-atom model. The third was simulating shock propagation through poly-crystalline RDX energetic material using a coarse-grain model, the results of which were used in an ACM Gordon Bell Prize submission. This report describes the results of these simulations, lessons learned, and some hardware issues found on Trinity KNL as part of this work.
Drinking water systems face multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, water quality concerns, uncertainty in supply and demand, natural disasters, environmental emergencies, and cyber and terrorist attacks. All of these have the potential to disrupt a large portion of a water system causing damage to infrastructure and outages to customers. Increasing resilience to these types of hazards is essential to improving water security. As one of the United States (US) sixteen critical infrastructure sectors, drinking water is a national priority. The National Infrastructure Advisory Council defined infrastructure resilience as “the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event”. Being able to predict how drinking water systems will perform during disruptive incidents and understanding how to best absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to such incidents can help enhance resilience.
Analog resistive memories promise to reduce the energy of neural networks by orders of magnitude. However, the write variability and write nonlinearity of current devices prevent neural networks from training to high accuracy. We present a novel periodic carry method that uses a positional number system to overcome this while maintaining the benefit of parallel analog matrix operations. We demonstrate how noisy, nonlinear TaOx devices that could only train to 80% accuracy on MNIST, can now reach 97% accuracy, only 1% away from an ideal numeric accuracy of 98%. On a file type dataset, the TaOx devices achieve ideal numeric accuracy. In addition, low noise, linear Li1-xCoO2 devices train to ideal numeric accuracies using periodic carry on both datasets.
As system of systems (SoS) models become increasingly complex and interconnected a new approach is needed to capture the effects of humans within the SoS. Many real-life events have shown the detrimental outcomes of failing to account for humans in the loop. This research introduces a novel and cross-disciplinary methodology for modeling humans interacting with technologies to perform tasks within an SoS specifically within a layered physical security system use case. Metrics and formulations developed for this new way of looking at SoS termed sociotechnical SoS allow for the quantification of the interplay of effectiveness and efficiency seen in detection theory to measure the ability of a physical security system to detect and respond to threats. This methodology has been applied to a notional representation of a small military Forward Operating Base (FOB) as a proof-of-concept.
As system of systems (SoS) models become increasingly complex and interconnected a new approach is needed to capture the effects of humans within the SoS. Many real-life events have shown the detrimental outcomes of failing to account for humans in the loop. This research introduces a novel and cross-disciplinary methodology for modeling humans interacting with technologies to perform tasks within an SoS specifically within a layered physical security system use case. Metrics and formulations developed for this new way of looking at SoS termed sociotechnical SoS allow for the quantification of the interplay of effectiveness and efficiency seen in detection theory to measure the ability of a physical security system to detect and respond to threats. This methodology has been applied to a notional representation of a small military Forward Operating Base (FOB) as a proof-of-concept.
In 2016, Lewis Rhodes Labs, (LRL), shipped the first commercially viable Neuromorphic Processing Unit, (NPU), branded as a Neuromorphic Data Microscope (NDM). This product leverages architectural mechanisms derived from the sensory cortex of the human brain to efficiently implement pattern matching. LRL and Sandia National Labs have optimized this product for streaming analytics, and demonstrated a 1,000x power per operation reduction in an FPGA format. When reduced to an ASIC, the efficiency will improve to 1,000,000x. Additionally, the neuromorphic nature of the device gives it powerful computational attributes that are counterintuitive to those schooled in traditional von Neumann architectures. The Neuromorphic Data Microscope is the first of a broad class of brain-inspired, time domain processors that will profoundly alter the functionality and economics of data processing.
Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power time series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.
Network messaging delay historically constitutes a large portion of the wall-clock time for High Performance Computing (HPC) applications, as these applications run on many nodes and involve intensive communication among their tasks. Dragonfly network topology has emerged as a promising solution for building exascale HPC systems owing to its low network diameter and large bisection bandwidth. Dragonfly includes local links that form groups and global links that connect these groups via high bandwidth optical links. Many aspects of the dragonfly network design are yet to be explored, such as the performance impact of the connectivity of the global links, i.e., global link arrangements, the bandwidth of the local and global links, or the job allocation algorithm. This paper first introduces a packet-level simulation framework to model the performance of HPC applications in detail. The proposed framework is able to simulate known MPI (message passing interface) routines as well as applications with custom-defined communication patterns for a given job placement algorithm and network topology. Using this simulation framework, we investigate the coupling between global link bandwidth and arrangements, communication pattern and intensity, job allocation and task mapping algorithms, and routing mechanisms in dragonfly topologies. We demonstrate that by choosing the right combination of system settings and workload allocation algorithms, communication overhead can be decreased by up to 44%. We also show that circulant arrangement provides up to 15% higher bisection bandwidth compared to the other arrangements, but for realistic workloads, the performance impact of link arrangements is less than 3%.
Additive manufacturing offers unprecedented opportunities to design complex structures optimized for performance envelopes inaccessible under conventional manufacturing constraints. Additive processes also promote realization of engineered materials with microstructures and properties that are impossible via traditional synthesis techniques. Enthused by these capabilities, optimization design tools have experienced a recent revival. The current capabilities of additive processes and optimization tools are summarized briefly, while an emerging opportunity is discussed to achieve a holistic design paradigm whereby computational tools are integrated with stochastic process and material awareness to enable the concurrent optimization of design topologies, material constructs and fabrication processes.