Publications

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This paper examines the variability of predicted responses when multiple stress-strain curves (reflecting variability from replicate material tests) are propagated through a finite element model of a ductile steel can being slowly crushed. Over 140 response quantities of interest (including displacements, stresses, strains, and calculated measures of material damage) are tracked in the simulations. Each response quantity’s behavior varies according to the particular stress-strain curves used for the materials in the model. We desire to estimate response variability when only a few stress-strain curve samples are available from material testing. Propagation of just a few samples will usually result in significantly underestimated response uncertainty relative to propagation of a much larger population that adequately samples the presiding random-function source. A simple classical statistical method, Tolerance Intervals, is tested for effectively treating sparse stress-strain curve data. The method is found to perform well on the highly nonlinear input-to-output response mappings and non-standard response distributions in the can-crush problem. The results and discussion in this paper support a proposition that the method will apply similarly well for other sparsely sampled random variable or function data, whether from experiments or models. Finally, the simple Tolerance Interval method is also demonstrated to be very economical.

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This report describes findings from the culminating experiment of the LDRD project entitled, "Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction". For this experiment, volunteer participants solving a given test problem in engineering and statistics were interviewed at different points in their solution process. These interviews are used to trace differing solutions to differing solution processes, and differing processes to differences in reasoning, assumptions, and judgments. The issue that the experiment was designed to illuminate -- our paucity of understanding of the ways in which humans themselves have an impact on predictions derived from complex computational simulations -- is a challenging and open one. Although solution of the test problem by analyst participants in this experiment has taken much more time than originally anticipated, and is continuing past the end of this LDRD, this project has provided a rare opportunity to explore analyst-to-analyst variability in significant depth, from which we derive evidence-based insights to guide further explorations in this important area.

This paper examines the variability of predicted responses when multiple stress-strain curves (reflecting variability from replicate material tests) are propagated through a transient dynamics finite element model of a ductile steel can being slowly crushed. An elastic-plastic constitutive model is employed in the large-deformation simulations. Over 70 response quantities of interest (including displacements, stresses, strains, and calculated measures of material damage) are tracked in the simulations. Each response quantity’s behavior varies according to the particular stress-strain curves used for the materials in the model. The present work assigns the same material to all the can parts: lids, walls, and weld. We desire to estimate response variability due to variability of the input material curves. When only a few stress-strain curve samples are available from material testing, response variance will usually be significantly underestimated. This is undesirable for many engineering purposes. A simple classical statistical method, Tolerance Intervals, is tested for effectively compensating for sparse stress-strain curve data. The method is found to perform well on the highly nonlinear input-to-output response mappings and non-standard response distributions in the can-crush problem. The results and discussion in this paper, and further studies referenced, support a proposition that the method will apply similarly well for other sparsely sampled random functions.

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Military training utilizing serious games or virtual worlds potentially generate data that can be mined to better understand how trainees learn in experiential exercises. Few data mining approaches for deployed military training games exist. Opportunities exist to collect and analyze these data, as well as to construct a full-history learner model. Outcomes discussed in the present document include results from a quasi-experimental research study on military game-based experiential learning, the deployment of an online game for training evidence collection, and results from a proof-of-concept pilot study on the development of individualized training vectors. This Lab Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project leveraged products within projects, such as Titan (Network Grand Challenge), Real-Time Feedback and Evaluation System, (America's Army Adaptive Thinking and Leadership, DARWARS Ambush! NK), and Dynamic Bayesian Networks to investigate whether machine learning capabilities could perform real-time, in-game similarity vectors of learner performance, toward adaptation of content delivery, and quantitative measurement of experiential learning.

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The motivating vision behind Sandia's MENTOR/PAL LDRD project has been that of systems which use real-time psychophysiological data to support and enhance human performance, both individually and of groups. Relevant and significant psychophysiological data being a necessary prerequisite to such systems, this LDRD has focused on identifying and refining such signals. The project has focused in particular on EEG (electroencephalogram) data as a promising candidate signal because it (potentially) provides a broad window on brain activity with relatively low cost and logistical constraints. We report here on two analyses performed on EEG data collected in this project using the SOBI (Second Order Blind Identification) algorithm to identify two independent sources of brain activity: one in the frontal lobe and one in the occipital. The first study looks at directional influences between the two components, while the second study looks at inferring gender based upon the frontal component.

The object of the 'Enabling Immersive Simulation for Complex Systems Analysis and Training' LDRD has been to research, design, and engineer a capability to develop simulations which (1) provide a rich, immersive interface for participation by real humans (exploiting existing high-performance game-engine technology wherever possible), and (2) can leverage Sandia's substantial investment in high-fidelity physical and cognitive models implemented in the Umbra simulation framework. We report here on these efforts. First, we describe the integration of Sandia's Umbra modular simulation framework with the open-source Delta3D game engine. Next, we report on Umbra's integration with Sandia's Cognitive Foundry, specifically to provide for learning behaviors for 'virtual teammates' directly from observed human behavior. Finally, we describe the integration of Delta3D with the ABL behavior engine, and report on research into establishing the theoretical framework that will be required to make use of tools like ABL to scale up to increasingly rich and realistic virtual characters.

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Ground Truth, a training game developed by Sandia National Laboratories in partnership with the University of Southern California GamePipe Lab, puts a player in the role of an Incident Commander working with teammate agents to respond to urban threats. These agents simulate certain emotions that a responder may feel during this high-stress situation. We construct psychology-plausible models compliant with the Sandia Human Embodiment and Representation Cognitive Architecture (SHERCA) that are run on the Sandia Cognitive Runtime Engine with Active Memory (SCREAM) software. SCREAM's computational representations for modeling human decision-making combine aspects of ANNs and fuzzy logic networks. This paper gives an overview of Ground Truth and discusses the adaptation of the SHERCA and SCREAM into the game. We include a semiformal descriptionof SCREAM. ©2008 IEEE.

This 3-year research and development effort focused on what we believe is a significant technical gap in existing modeling and simulation capabilities: the representation of plausible human cognition and behaviors within a dynamic, simulated environment. Specifically, the intent of the ''Simulating Human Behavior for National Security Human Interactions'' project was to demonstrate initial simulated human modeling capability that realistically represents intra- and inter-group interaction behaviors between simulated humans and human-controlled avatars as they respond to their environment. Significant process was made towards simulating human behaviors through the development of a framework that produces realistic characteristics and movement. The simulated humans were created from models designed to be psychologically plausible by being based on robust psychological research and theory. Progress was also made towards enhancing Sandia National Laboratories existing cognitive models to support culturally plausible behaviors that are important in representing group interactions. These models were implemented in the modular, interoperable, and commercially supported Umbra{reg_sign} simulation framework.

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