Understanding the effect of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the equipment in the United States electrical power grid is important to national security. A present challenge to this understanding is evaluating the vulnerability of transformers to a HEMP. Evaluating vulnerability by direct testing is cost-prohibitive, due to the wide variation in transformers, their high cost, and the large number of tests required to establish vulnerability with confidence. Alternatively, material and component testing can be performed to quantify a model for transformer failure, and the model can be used to assess vulnerability of a wide variety of transformers. This project develops a model of the probability of equipment failure due to effects of a HEMP. Potential failure modes are cataloged, and a model structure is presented which can be quantified by the results of small-scale coupon tests.
Optimum and reliable photovoltaic (PV) plant performance requires accurate diagnostics of system losses and failures. Data-driven approaches can classify such losses however, the appropriate PV data features required for accurate classification remains unclear. To avoid misclassification, this study reviews the potential issues associated with inabilities to separate fault conditions that overlap using certain data features. Feature selection techniques that define each feature's importance and identify the set of features necessary for producing the most accurate results are also explored. The experiment quantified the amount of overlap using both maximum power point (MPP) and current and voltage (I-V) curve data sets. The I -V data provided an overall increase in classification accuracy of 8% points above the case where only MPP was available.
Optimum and reliable photovoltaic (PV) plant performance requires accurate diagnostics of system losses and failures. Data-driven approaches can classify such losses however, the appropriate PV data features required for accurate classification remains unclear. To avoid misclassification, this study reviews the potential issues associated with inabilities to separate fault conditions that overlap using certain data features. Feature selection techniques that define each feature's importance and identify the set of features necessary for producing the most accurate results are also explored. The experiment quantified the amount of overlap using both maximum power point (MPP) and current and voltage (I-V) curve data sets. The I -V data provided an overall increase in classification accuracy of 8% points above the case where only MPP was available.
The New York State Public Service Commission recently made significant changes to the compensation mechanisms for distributed energy resources, such as solar generation. The new mechanisms, called the Value of Distributed Energy Resources (VDER), alter the value proposition of potential installations. In particular, multiple time-of-generation based pricing alternatives were established, which could lead to potential benefits from pairing energy storage systems with solar installations. This paper presents the calculations to maximize revenue from a solar photovoltaic and energy storage system installation operating under the VDER pricing structures. Two systems in two different zones within the New York Independent System Operator area were modeled. The impact of AC versus DC energy storage system interconnections with solar generation resources was also explored. The results show that energy storage systems could generate significant revenue depending on the pricing alternative being targeted and the zone selected for the project.
In this paper, we present a new, light-weight approach for extracting the five single diode parameters (IL, Io, RS, RSH, and nNsVt) for advanced, in-field monitoring of in situ current and voltage (I-V) tracing devices. The proposed procedure uses individual I-V curves, and does not require the irradiance or module temperature measurement to calculate the parameters. It is suitable for operation on a small, single board computer at the point of I-V curve measurement. This allows for analysis to occur in the field, and eliminates the need to transfer large amounts of data to centralized databases. Observers can receive alerts directly from the in-field devices based on the extraction, and analysis of the commonly used single diode equivalent model parameters. This paper defines the approach and evaluates its accuracy by subjecting it to I-V curves with known parameters. Its performance is defined using actual I-V curves generated from an in situ scanning devices installed within an actual photovoltaic production field. The algorithm is able to operate at a high accuracy for multiple module types and performed well on actual curves extracted in the field.
In this paper, we present a new, light-weight approach for extracting the five single diode parameters (IL, Io, RS, RSH, and nNsVt) for advanced, in-field monitoring of in situ current and voltage (I-V) tracing devices. The proposed procedure uses individual I-V curves, and does not require the irradiance or module temperature measurement to calculate the parameters. It is suitable for operation on a small, single board computer at the point of I-V curve measurement. This allows for analysis to occur in the field, and eliminates the need to transfer large amounts of data to centralized databases. Observers can receive alerts directly from the in-field devices based on the extraction, and analysis of the commonly used single diode equivalent model parameters. This paper defines the approach and evaluates its accuracy by subjecting it to I-V curves with known parameters. Its performance is defined using actual I-V curves generated from an in situ scanning devices installed within an actual photovoltaic production field. The algorithm is able to operate at a high accuracy for multiple module types and performed well on actual curves extracted in the field.
Conference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
Hansen, Clifford; Holmgren, William F.; Tuohy, Aidan; Sharp, Justin; Lorenzo, Antonio T.; Boeman, Leland J.; Golnas, Anastasios
We describe an open source evaluation framework for solar forecasting to support the DOE Solar Forecasting 2 program and the broader solar forecast community. The framework enables evaluations of solar irradiance, solar power, and net-load forecasts that are impartial, repeatable and auditable. First, we define the use cases of the framework. The use cases, developed from the project's initial stakeholder engagement sessions, include comparisons to reference data sets, private forecast trials, evaluation of probabilistic forecast skill, and examinations of forecast errors during critical periods. We discuss the framework's data validation toolkit, reference data sources, and data privacy protocols. We describe the framework's benchmark forecast capabilities for intra-hour and day ahead forecast horizons. Finally, we summarize the reports and metrics that communicate the relative merits of the test and benchmark forecasts. The reports are created from standardized templates and include graphics for quantitatively evaluating deterministic and probabilistic forecasts and standard metrics for quantitatively evaluating forecasts.
Literature describes various methods for determining a series resistance for a photovoltaic device from measured IV curves. We investigate use of these techniques to estimate the series resistance parameter for a single diode equivalent circuit model. With simulated IV curves we demonstrate that the series resistance values obtained by these techniques differ systematically from the known series resistance parameter values used to generate the curves, indicating that these methods are not suitable for determining the series resistance parameter for the single diode model equation. We present an alternative method to determine the series resistance parameter jointly with the other parameters for the single diode model equation, and demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of this technique in the presence of measurement errors.
While the concept of aggregating and controlling renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide grid services is not new, increasing policy support of DER market participation has driven research and development in algorithms to pool DERs for economically viable market participation. Sandia National Laboratories recently undertook a three-year research program to create the components of a real-world virtual power plant (VPP) that can simultaneously participate in multiple markets. Our research extends current state-of-the-art rolling horizon control through the application of stochastic programming with risk aversion at various time resolutions. Our rolling horizon control consists of (1) day-ahead optimization to produce an hourly aggregate schedule for the VPP operator and (2) sub-hourly optimization for real-time dispatch of each VPP subresource. Both optimization routines leverage a two-stage stochastic program (SP) with risk aversion, and integrate the most up-to-date forecasts to generate probabilistic scenarios in real operating time. Our results demonstrate the benefits to the VPP operator of constructing a stochastic solution regardless of the weather. In more extreme weather, applying risk optimization strategies can dramatically increase the financial viability of the VPP. As a result, the methodologies presented here can be further tailored for optimal control of any VPP asset fleet and its operational requirements.
In this paper, we present the effect of installation parameters (tilt angle, height above ground, and albedo) on the bifacial gain and energy yield of three south-facing photovoltaic (PV) system configurations: a single module, a row of five modules, and five rows of five modules utilizing RADIANCE-based ray tracing model. We show that height and albedo have a direct impact on the performance of bifacial systems. However, the impact of the tilt angle is more complicated. Seasonal optimum tilt angles are dependent on parameters such as height, albedo, size of the system, weather conditions, and time of the year. For a single bifacial module installed in Albuquerque, NM, USA (35 °N) with a reasonable clearance (∼1 m) from the ground, the seasonal optimum tilt angle is lowest (∼5°) for the summer solstice and highest (∼65°) for the winter solstice. For larger systems, seasonal optimum tilt angles are usually higher and can be up to 20° greater than that for a single module system. Annual simulations also indicate that for larger fixed-tilt systems installed on a highly reflective ground (such as snow or a white roofing material with an albedo of ∼81%), the optimum tilt angle is higher than the optimum angle of the smaller size systems. We also show that modules in larger scale systems generate lower energy due to horizon blocking and large shadowing area cast by the modules on the ground. For albedo of 21%, the center module in a large array generates up to 7% less energy than a single bifacial module. To validate our model, we utilize measured data from Sandia National Laboratories' fixed-tilt bifacial PV testbed and compare it with our simulations.
This paper discusses the broad use of rotational kinetic energy stored in wind turbine rotors to supply services to the electrical power grid. The grid services are discussed in terms of zero-net-energy, which do not require a reduction in power output via pitch control (spill), but neither do they preclude doing so. The services discussed include zero-net-energy regulation, transient and small signal stability, and other frequency management services. The delivery of this energy requires a trade-off between the frequency and amplitude of power modulation and is limited, in some cases, by equipment ratings and the unresearched long-term mechanical effects on the turbine. As wind displaces synchronous generation, the grid's inertial storage is being reduced, but the amount of accessible kinetic energy in a wind turbine at rated speed is approximately 6 times greater than that of a generator with only a 0.12% loss in efficiency and 75 times greater at 10% loss. The potential flexibility of the wind's kinetic storage is also high. However, the true cost of providing grid services using wind turbines, which includes a potential increase in operations and maintenance costs, have not been compared to the value of the services themselves.
The PV lifetime project must select a sample size (number of PV modules) for each PV system to be deployed. In this memorandum, we show how the uncertainty in measured degradation depends on the selected sample size.
Short circuit current (Isc) depends on the effective irradiance incident upon a PV module. Effective irradiance is highly correlated with broadband irradiance, but can vary slightly as the spectral content of the incident light changes. We explore using a few spectral wavelengths with broadband irradiance to predict Isc for ten modules of varying technologies (silicon, CIGS, CdTe). The goal is to identify a few spectral wavelengths that could be easily (and economically) measured to improve PV performance modeling.
PVLIB is a set of open source modeling functions that allow users to simulate most aspects of PV system performance. The functions, in Matlab and Python, are freely available under a BSD 3 clause open source license. The Matlab version is maintained by Sandia and is available on the PV Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC) website (pvpmc.sandia.gov). The Python version is available on GitHub with packages easily installable through conda and pip. New functions were released on the Matlab version 1.3 in January 2016 and are actively being ported to Python.
The Sandia Array Performance Model (SAPM), a semi-empirical model for predicting PV system power, has been in use for more than a decade. While several studies have presented laboratory intercomparisons of measurements and analysis, detailed procedures for determining model coefficients have never been published. Independent test laboratories must develop in-house procedures to determine SAPM coefficients, which contributes to uncertainty in the resulting models. In response to requests from commercial laboratories and module manufacturers, Sandia has formally documented the measurement and analysis methods as a supplement to the original model description. In this paper we present a description of the measurement procedures and an example analysis for calibrating the SAPM.
The Sandia Array Performance Model (SAPM), a semi-empirical model for predicting PV system power, has been in use for more than a decade. While several studies have presented laboratory intercomparisons of measurements and analysis, detailed procedures for determining model coefficients have never been published. Independent test laboratories must develop in-house procedures to determine SAPM coefficients, which contributes to uncertainty in the resulting models. In response to requests from commercial laboratories and module manufacturers, Sandia has formally documented the measurement and analysis methods as a supplement to the original model description. In this paper we present a description of the measurement procedures and an example analysis for calibrating the SAPM.
PVLIB is a set of open source modeling functions that allow users to simulate most aspects of PV system performance. The functions, in Matlab and Python, are freely available under a BSD 3 clause open source license. The Matlab version is maintained by Sandia and is available on the PV Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC) website (pvpmc.sandia.gov). The Python version is available on GitHub with packages easily installable through conda and pip. New functions were released on the Matlab version 1.3 in January 2016 and are actively being ported to Python.
Determination of module temperature coefficients for voltage, current and power requires measuring the average of cell temperatures. Conventional practice is to place thermocouples or resistive temperature devices (RTDs) at a few locations on a module's back surface and to average the readings, which may not accurately represent the average temperature over all cells. We investigate the suitability of averaging RTDs, which measure average temperature along a 1m length, to accurately measure the average cell temperature when determining temperature coefficients outdoors.
