Generative AI models garnered a large amount of public attention and speculation with the release of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT in November of 2022. At least two opinion camps exist – one that is excited about the possibilities these models offer for fundamental changes to human tasks, and another that is highly concerned about the power these models seem to have – especially since the release of GPT-4, which was trained on multimodal data and has ~1.7 trillion (T) parameters. We evaluated some concerns regarding these models’ power by assessing GPT-3.5 using standard, normed, and validated cognitive and personality measures. These measures come from the tradition of psychometrics in experimental psychology and have a long history of providing valuable insights and predictive distinctions in humans. For this seedling project, we developed a battery of tests that allowed us to estimate the boundaries of some of these models’ capabilities, how stable those capabilities are over a short period of time, and how they compare to humans.
Generative AI models garnered a large amount of public attention and speculation with the release of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT in November of 2022. At least two opinion camps exist – one that is excited about the possibilities these models offer for fundamental changes to human tasks, and another that is highly concerned about the power these models seem to have – especially since the release of GPT-4, which was trained on multimodal data and has ~1.7 trillion (T) parameters. We evaluated some concerns regarding these models’ power by assessing GPT 3.5 using standard, normed, and validated cognitive and personality measures. These measures come from the tradition of psychometrics in experimental psychology and have a long history of providing valuable insights and predictive distinctions in humans. For this seedling project, we developed a battery of tests that allowed us to estimate the boundaries of some of these models’ capabilities, how stable those capabilities are over a short period of time, and how they compare to humans.
The prevalence effect is the observation that, in visual search tasks as the signal (target) to noise (non-target) ratio becomes smaller, humans are more likely to miss the target when it does occur. Studied extensively in the basic literature [e.g., 1, 2], this effect has implications for real-world settings such as security guards monitoring physical facilities for attacks. Importantly, what seems to drive the effect is the development of a response bias based on learned sensitivity to the statistical likelihood of a target [e.g., 3-5]. This paper presents results from two experiments aimed at understanding how the target prevalence impacts the ability for individuals to detect a target on the 1,000th trial of a series of 1000 trials. The first experiment employed the traditional prevalence effect paradigm. This paradigm involves search for a perfect capital letter T amidst imperfect Ts. In a between-subjects design, our subjects experienced target prevalence rates of 50/50, 1/10, 1/100, or 1/1000. In all conditions, the final trial was always a target. The second (ongoing) experiment replicates this design using a notional physical facility in a mod/sim environment. This simulation enables triggering different intrusion detection sensors by simulated characters and events (e.g., people, animals, weather). In this experiment, subjects viewed 1000 “alarm” events and were asked to characterize each as either a nuisance alarm (e.g., set off by an animal) or an attack. As with the basic visual search study, the final trial was always an attack.
Research shows that individuals often overestimate their knowledge and performance without realizing they have done so, which can lead to faulty technical outcomes. This phenomenon is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect (Kruger & Dunning, 1999). This research sought to determine if some individuals were more prone to overestimating their performance due to underlying personality and cognitive characteristics. To test our hypothesis, we first collected individual difference measures. Next, we asked participants to estimate their performance on three performance tasks to assess the likelihood of overestimation. We found that some individuals may be more prone to overestimating their performance than others, and that faulty problem-solving abilities and low skill may be to blame. Encouraging individuals to think critically through all options and to consult with others before making a high-consequence decision may reduce overestimation.
As artificial intelligence, machine learning, and statistical modeling methods become commonplace in national security applications, the drive to create trusted analytics becomes increasingly important. The goal of this report is to identify areas of research that can provide the foundational understanding and technical prerequisites for the development and deployment of trusted analytics in national security settings. Our review of the literature covered several disjoint research communities, including computer science, statistics, human factors, and several branches of psychology and cognitive science, which tend not to interact with one another or cite each other's literatures. As a result, there exists no agreed-upon theoretical framework for understanding how various factors influence trust and no well-established empirical paradigm for studying these effects. This report therefore takes three steps. First, we define several key terms in an effort to provide a unifying language for trusted analytics and to manage the scope of the problem. Second, we outline an empirical perspective that identifies key independent, moderating, and dependent variables in assessing trusted analytics. Though not a substitute for a theoretical framework, the empirical perspective does support research and development of trusted analytics in the national security domain. Finally, we discuss several research gaps relevant to developing trusted analytics for the national security mission space.
This document is UUR survey questions for use in an exploratory express LDRD experiment. The purpose of the study is to understand if people overestimate their performance only in some situations or some people are more prone to it do to an underlying trait. To investigate our aims, we must use 3 experimental tasks: two domain general (an English grammar task a logic task) and a domain specific task (a science & technology questionnaire). The reason we are using these tasks is to see if people overestimate their abilities on tasks they are more familiar with (grammar and logic) but not on domains in which they are more specialized (science and technology). To understand the traits and characteristics of our participants, we are using 7 well-validated assessments from the field of psychology. All questionnaires are available for research and teaching purposes. Citations for all materials have been included.
To address Alarm Station operator performance, Portable Intrusion Detection System team gathered information concerning AS operator data needs when assessing alarms. The purpose was to improve the Portable Intrusion Detection System operator interface to ensure that critical information was quickly presented and easily accessible. To gather the data, the team used a Goal Directed Task Analysis approach. The method of analysis was to prepare a set of interview questions, interview selected AS operator experts, conduct the interviews, create a goal/decision/information hierarchy based on information gathered, and then apply the results to the operator interface. In applying the results, the team had to consider not only the Goal Directed Task Analysis -determined information needs of the Alarm Station operator end-user population, but also account for customer requirements and differences in domain. The constraints in implementing all situation awareness recommendations are summarized and initial potential solutions presented.
Physical security systems (PSS) and humans are inescapably tied in the current physical security paradigm. Yet, physical security system evaluations often end at the console that displays information to the human. That is, these evaluations do not account for human-in-The-loop factors that can greatly impact performance of the security system, even though methods for doing so are well-established. This paper highlights two examples of methods for evaluating the human component of the current physical security system. One of these methods is qualitative, focusing on the information the human needs to adequately monitor alarms on a physical site. The other of these methods objectively measures the impact of false alarm rates on threat detection. These types of human-centric evaluations are often treated as unnecessary or not cost effective under the belief that human cognition is straightforward and errors can be either trained away or mitigated with technology. These assumptions are not always correct, are often surprising, and can often only be identified with objective assessments of human-system performance. Thus, taking the time to perform human element evaluations can identify unintuitive human-system weaknesses and can provide significant cost savings in the form of mitigating vulnerabilities and reducing costly system patches or retrofits to correct an issue after the system has been deployed.
Visual clutter metrics play an important role in both the design of information visualizations and in the continued theoretical development of visual search models. In visualization design, clutter metrics provide a mathematical prediction of the complexity of the display and the difficulty associated with locating and identifying key pieces of information. In visual search models, they offer a proxy to set size, which represents the number of objects in the search scene, but is difficult to estimate in real-world imagery. In this article, we first briefly review the literature on clutter metrics and then contribute our own results drawn from studies in two security-oriented visual search domains: airport X-ray imagery and radar imagery. We analyze our results with an eye toward bridging the gap between the scene features evaluated by current clutter metrics and the features that are relevant to our security tasks. The article concludes with a brief discussion of possible research steps to close this gap.
As system of systems (SoS) models become increasingly complex and interconnected a new approach is needed to capture the effects of humans within the SoS. Many real-life events have shown the detrimental outcomes of failing to account for humans in the loop. This research introduces a novel and cross-disciplinary methodology for modeling humans interacting with technologies to perform tasks within an SoS specifically within a layered physical security system use case. Metrics and formulations developed for this new way of looking at SoS termed sociotechnical SoS allow for the quantification of the interplay of effectiveness and efficiency seen in detection theory to measure the ability of a physical security system to detect and respond to threats. This methodology has been applied to a notional representation of a small military Forward Operating Base (FOB) as a proof-of-concept.
As system of systems (SoS) models become increasingly complex and interconnected a new approach is needed to capture the effects of humans within the SoS. Many real-life events have shown the detrimental outcomes of failing to account for humans in the loop. This research introduces a novel and cross-disciplinary methodology for modeling humans interacting with technologies to perform tasks within an SoS specifically within a layered physical security system use case. Metrics and formulations developed for this new way of looking at SoS termed sociotechnical SoS allow for the quantification of the interplay of effectiveness and efficiency seen in detection theory to measure the ability of a physical security system to detect and respond to threats. This methodology has been applied to a notional representation of a small military Forward Operating Base (FOB) as a proof-of-concept.
Modern systems, such as physical security systems, are often designed to involve complex interactions of technological and human elements. Evaluation of the performance of these systems often overlooks the human element. A method is proposed here to expand the concept of sensitivity—as denoted by d’—from signal detection theory (Green & Swets 1966; Macmillan & Creelman 2005), which came out of the field of psychophysics, to cover not only human threat detection but also other human functions plus the performance of technical systems in a physical security system, thereby including humans in the overall evaluation of system performance. New in this method is the idea that probabilities of hits (accurate identification of threats) and false alarms (saying “threat” when there is not one), which are used to calculate d’ of the system, can be applied to technologies and, furthermore, to different functions in the system beyond simple yes-no threat detection. At the most succinct level, the method returns a single number that represents the effectiveness of a physical security system; specifically, the balance between the handling of actual threats and the distraction of false alarms. The method can be automated, and the constituent parts revealed, such that given an interaction graph that indicates the functional associations of system elements and the individual probabilities of hits and false alarms for those elements, it will return the d’ of the entire system as well as d’ values for individual parts. The method can also return a measure of the response bias* of the system. One finding of this work is that the d’ for a physical security system can be relatively poor in spite of having excellent d’s for each of its individual functional elements.
Visual inspection research has a long history spanning the 20th century and continuing to the present day. Current efforts in multiple venues demonstrate that visual inspection continues to have a vital role for many different types of tasks in the 21st century. The nature of this role spans the range from traditional human visual inspection to fully automated detection of defects. Consequently, today's practitioners must not only successfully identify and apply lessons learned from the past, but also explore new areas of research in order to derive solutions for modern day issues such as those presented by introducing automation during inspection. A key lesson from past research indicates that the factors that can degrade performance will persist today, unless care is taken to design the inspection process appropriately.
System-of-systems modeling has traditionally focused on physical systems rather than humans, but recent events have proved the necessity of considering the human in the loop. As technology becomes more complex and layered security continues to increase in importance, capturing humans and their interactions with technologies within the system-of-systems will be increasingly necessary. After an extensive job-task analysis, a novel type of system-ofsystems simulation model has been created to capture the human-technology interactions on an extra-small forward operating base to better understand performance, key security drivers, and the robustness of the base. In addition to the model, an innovative framework for using detection theory to calculate d’ for individual elements of the layered security system, and for the entire security system as a whole, is under development.
Visual search has been an active area of research – empirically and theoretically – for a number of decades, however much of that work is based on novice searchers performing basic tasks in a laboratory. This paper summarizes some of the issues associated with quantifying expert, domain-specific visual search behavior in operationally realistic environments.
Performance at Transportation Security Administration (TSA) airport checkpoints must be consistently high to skillfully mitigate national security threats and incidents. To accomplish this, Transportation Security Officers (TSOs) must exceptionally perform in threat detection, interaction with passengers, and efficiency. It is difficult to measure the human attributes that contribute to high performing TSOs because cognitive ability such as memory, personality, and competence are inherently latent variables. Cognitive scientists at Sandia National Laboratories have developed a methodology that links TSOs’ cognitive ability to their performance. This paper discusses how the methodology was developed using a strict quantitative process, the strengths and weaknesses, as well as how this could be generalized to other non-TSA contexts. The scope of this project is to identify attributes that distinguished high and low TSO performance for the duties at the checkpoint that involved direct interaction with people going through the checkpoint.
Visual search data describe people’s performance on the common perceptual problem of identifying target objects in a complex scene. Technological advances in areas such as eye tracking now provide researchers with a wealth of data not previously available. The goal of this work is to support researchers in analyzing this complex and multimodal data and in developing new insights into visual search techniques. We discuss several methods drawn from the statistics and machine learning literature for integrating visual search data derived from multiple sources and performing exploratory data analysis. We ground our discussion in a specific task performed by officers at the Transportation Security Administration and consider the applicability, likely issues, and possible adaptations of several candidate analysis methods.
Numerous domains, ranging from medical diagnostics to intelligence analysis, involve visual search tasks in which people must find and identify specific items within large sets of imagery. These tasks rely heavily on human judgment, making fully automated systems infeasible in many cases. Researchers have investigated methods for combining human judgment with computational processing to increase the speed at which humans can triage large image sets. One such method is rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP), in which images are presented in rapid succession to a human viewer. While viewing the images and looking for targets of interest, the participant’s brain activity is recorded using electroencephalography (EEG). The EEG signals can be time-locked to the presentation of each image, producing event-related potentials (ERPs) that provide information about the brain’s response to those stimuli. The participants’ judgments about whether or not each set of images contained a target and the ERPs elicited by target and non-target images are used to identify subsets of images that merit close expert scrutiny [1]. Although the RSVP/EEG paradigm holds promise for helping professional visual searchers to triage imagery rapidly, it may be limited by the nature of the target items. Targets that do not vary a great deal in appearance are likely to elicit useable ERPs, but more variable targets may not. In the present study, we sought to extend the RSVP/EEG paradigm to the domain of aviation security screening, and in doing so to explore the limitations of the technique for different types of targets. Professional Transportation Security Officers (TSOs) viewed bag X-rays that were presented using an RSVP paradigm. The TSOs viewed bursts of images containing 50 segments of bag X-rays that were presented for 100 ms each. Following each burst of images, the TSOs indicated whether or not they thought there was a threat item in any of the images in that set. EEG was recorded during each burst of images and ERPs were calculated by time-locking the EEG signal to the presentation of images containing threats and matched images that were identical except for the presence of the threat item. Half of the threat items had a prototypical appearance and half did not. We found that the bag images containing threat items with a prototypical appearance reliably elicited a P300 ERP component, while those without a prototypical appearance did not. These findings have implications for the application of the RSVP/EEG technique to real-world visual search domains.
In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.
In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.
In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.
Functional brain imaging is of great interest for understanding correlations between specific cognitive processes and underlying neural activity. This understanding can provide the foundation for developing enhanced human-machine interfaces, decision aides, and enhanced cognition at the physiological level. The functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) based event-related optical signal (EROS) technique can provide direct, high-fidelity measures of temporal and spatial characteristics of neural networks underlying cognitive behavior. However, current EROS systems are hampered by poor signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) and depth of measure, limiting areas of the brain and associated cognitive processes that can be investigated. We propose to investigate a flexible, tunable, multi-spectral fNIRS EROS system which will provide up to 10x greater SNR as well as improved spatial and temporal resolution through significant improvements in electronics, optoelectronics and optics, as well as contribute to the physiological foundation of higher-order cognitive processes and provide the technical foundation for miniaturized portable neuroimaging systems.
The purpose of this work was to help develop a research roadmap and small proof ofconcept for addressing key problems and gaps from the perspective of using text analysis methods as a primary tool for detecting when a group is undergoing a phase change. Self- rganizing map (SOM) techniques were used to analyze text data obtained from the tworld-wide web. Statistical studies indicate that it may be possible to predict phase changes, as well as detect whether or not an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.