As the prospect of exceeding global temperature targets set forth in the Paris Agreement becomes more likely, methods of climate intervention are increasingly being explored. With this increased interest there is a need for an assessment process to understand the range of impacts across different scenarios against a set of performance goals in order to support policy decisions. The methodology and tools developed for Performance Assessment (PA) for nuclear waste repositories shares many similarities with the needs and requirements for a framework for climate intervention. Using PA, we outline and test an evaluation framework for climate intervention, called Performance Assessment for Climate Intervention (PACI) with a focus on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). We define a set of key technical components for the example PACI framework which include identifying performance goals, the extent of the system, and identifying which features, events, and processes are relevant and impactful to calculating model output for the system given the performance goals. Having identified a set of performance goals, the performance of the system, including uncertainty, can then be evaluated against these goals. Using the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) scenario, we develop a set of performance goals for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought index, soil water, solar flux, and surface runoff. The assessment assumes that targets may be framed in the context of risk-risk via a risk ratio, or the ratio of the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the SAI scenario against the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the emissions scenario. From regional responses, across multiple climate variables, it is then possible to assess which pathway carries lower risk relative to the goals. The assessment is not comprehensive but rather a demonstration of the evaluation of an SAI scenario. Future work is needed to develop a more complete assessment that would provide additional simulations to cover parametric and aleatory uncertainty and enable a deeper understanding of impacts, informed scenario selection, and allow further refinements to the approach.
Marine aerosol injections are a key component in further understanding of both the potentials of deliberate injection for marine cloud brightening (MCB), a potential climate intervention (CI) strategy, and key aerosol-cloud interaction behaviors that currently form the largest uncertainty in global climate model (GCM) predictions of our climate. Since the rate of spread of aerosols in a marine environment directly translates to the effectiveness and ability of aerosol injections in impacting cloud radiative forcing, it is crucial to understand the spatial and temporal extent of injected-aerosol effects following direct injection into marine environments. The ubiquity of ship-injected aerosol tracks from satellite imagery renders observational validation of new parameterizations possible in 2D, however, 3D compatible data is more scarce, and necessary for the development of subgrid scale parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions in GCMs. This report introduces two novel parameterizations of atmospheric aerosol injection behavior suitable for both 3D (GCM-compatible) and 2D (observation-related) modeling. Their applicability is highlighted using a wealth of different observational data: small and larger scale salt-aerosol injection experiments conducted at SNL, 3D large eddy simulations of ship-injected aerosol tracks and 2D satellite images of ship tracks. The power of experimental data in enhancing knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions is in particular emphasized by studying key aerosol microphysical and optical properties as observed through their mixing in cloud-like environments.
For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher-resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.
For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher-resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.
This paper provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico's Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 - 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climateinduced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in roundtrip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.
Ship emissions can form linear cloud structures, or ship tracks, when atmospheric water vapor condenses on aerosols in the ship exhaust. These structures are of interest because they are observable and traceable examples of MCB, a mechanism that has been studied as a potential approach for solar climate intervention. Ship tracks can be observed throughout the diurnal cycle via space-borne assets like the advanced baseline imagers on the national oceanic and atmospheric administration geostationary operational environmental satellites, the GOES-R series. Due to complex atmospheric dynamics, it can be difficult to track these aerosol perturbations over space and time to precisely characterize how long a single emission source can significantly contribute to indirect radiative forcing. We propose an optical flow approach to estimate the trajectories of ship-emitted aerosols after they begin mixing with low boundary layer clouds using GOES-17 satellite imagery. Most optical flow estimation methods have only been used to estimate large scale atmospheric motion. We demonstrate the ability of our approach to precisely isolate the movement of ship tracks in low-lying clouds from the movement of large swaths of high clouds that often dominate the scene. This efficient approach shows that ship tracks persist as visible, linear features beyond 9 h and sometimes longer than 24 h.
Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.
Motivated by the need to improve visualizations of Earth's complex water cycle, this team embarked on non-trivial tasks to push from traditional methods of viewing data from simulations as static line graphs and contour plots into new realms with multiple dimensions (three spatial dimensions and the time component) viewable at once. To do this, we chose to feature the extremes in the general circulation of the atmosphere because these Earth system elements are short-lived, but impactful events. We used simulation data produced by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM),which is designed to answer DOE science questions using DOE computing facilities. The E3SM project includes three sets of simulation experiments: cryosphere, bio-geochemical cycles, and the water cycle. The water cycle experiment campaign includes a set of simulations designed to understand how the water cycle will change in coming decades under a changing climate.
The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.
The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).
A tethered-balloon system (TBS) has been developed and is being operated by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility in order to collect in situ atmospheric measurements within mixed-phase Arctic clouds. Periodic tethered-balloon flights have been conducted since 2015 within restricted airspace at ARM's Advanced Mobile Facility 3 (AMF3) in Oliktok Point, Alaska, as part of the AALCO (Aerial Assessment of Liquid in Clouds at Oliktok), ERASMUS (Evaluation of Routine Atmospheric Sounding Measurements using Unmanned Systems), and POPEYE (Profiling at Oliktok Point to Enhance YOPP Experiments) field campaigns. The tethered-balloon system uses helium-filled 34 m3 helikites and 79 and 104 m3 aerostats to suspend instrumentation that is used to measure aerosol particle size distributions, temperature, horizontal wind, pressure, relative humidity, turbulence, and cloud particle properties and to calibrate ground-based remote sensing instruments.
Supercooled liquid water content (SLWC) sondes using the vibrating-wire principle, developed by Anasphere Inc., were operated at Oliktok Point at multiple altitudes on the TBS within mixed-phase clouds for over 200 h. Sonde-collected SLWC data were compared with liquid water content derived from a microwave radiometer, Ka-band ARM zenith radar, and ceilometer at the AMF3, as well as liquid water content derived from AMF3 radiosonde flights. The in situ data collected by the Anasphere sensors were also compared with data collected simultaneously by an alternative SLWC sensor developed at the University of Reading, UK; both vibrating-wire instruments were typically observed to shed their ice quickly upon exiting the cloud or reaching maximum ice loading. Temperature sensing measurements distributed with fiber optic tethered balloons were also compared with AMF3 radiosonde temperature measurements. Combined, the results indicate that TBS-distributed temperature sensing and supercooled liquid water measurements are in reasonably good agreement with remote sensing and radiosonde-based measurements of both properties. From these measurements and sensor evaluations, tethered-balloon flights are shown to offer an effective method of collecting data to inform and constrain numerical models, calibrate and validate remote sensing instruments, and characterize the flight environment of unmanned aircraft, circumventing the difficulties of in-cloud unmanned aircraft flights such as limited flight time and in-flight icing.
Concern over Arctic methane (CH4) emissions has increased following recent discoveries of poorly understood sources and predictions that methane emissions from known sources will grow as Arctic temperatures increase. New efforts are required to detect increases and explain sources without being confounded by the multiple sources. Methods for distinguishing different sources are critical. We conducted measurements of atmospheric methane and source tracers and performed baseline global atmospheric modeling to begin assessing the climate impact of changes in atmospheric methane. The goal of this project was to address uncertainties in Arctic methane sources and their potential impact on climate by (1) deploying newly developed trace-gas analyzers for measurements of methane, methane isotopologues, ethane, and other tracers of methane sources in the Barrow, AK, (2) characterizing methane sources using high-resolution atmospheric chemical transport models and tracer measurements, and (3) modeling Arctic climate using the state-of-the-art high- resolution Spectral Element Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-SE).
Atmospheric ice affects Earth's radiative properties and initiates most precipitation. Growing ice typically requires a particle, often airborne mineral dust, e.g., to catalyze freezing of supercooled cloud droplets. How chemistry, structure and morphology determine the ice-nucleating ability of minerals remains elusive. Not surprisingly, poor understanding of a erosol-cloud interactions is a major source of uncertainty in climate models. In this project, we combine d optical microscopy with atomic force microscopy to explore the mechanisms of initial ice formation on alkali feldspar, a mineral proposed to dominate ice nucleation in Earth's atmosphere. When cold air becomes supersaturated with respect to water, we discovered that supercooled liquid water condenses at steps without having to overcome a nucleation barrier, and subsequently freezes quickly. Our results imply that steps, common even on macroscopically flat feldspar surfaces, can accelerate water condensation followed by freezing, thus promoting glaciation and dehydration of mixed - phase clouds. Motivated by the fact that current climate simulations do not properly account for feldspar's extreme efficiency to nucleate ice, we modified DOE's climate model, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), to increase the activation of ice nucleation on feldspar dust. This included adding a new aerosol tracer into the model and updating the ice nucleation parameterization, based on Classical Nucleation Theory, for multiple mineral dust tracers. Although t he se modifications have little impact on global averages , predictions of regional averages can be strongly affected .
Tang, Qi; Klein, Stephen A.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lin, Wuyin; Golaz, Jean C.; Roesler, Erika L.; Taylor, Mark A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Bader, David C.; Berg, Larry K.; Caldwell, Peter; Giangrande, Scott E.; Neale, Richard B.; Qian, Yun; Riihimaki, Laura D.; Zender, Charles S.; Zhang, Yuying; Zheng, Xue
Climate simulations with more accurate process-level representation at finer resolutions (<100 km) are a pressing need in order to provide more detailed actionable information to policy makers regarding extreme events in a changing climate. Computational limitation is a major obstacle for building and running high-resolution (HR, here 0.25° average grid spacing at the Equator) models (HRMs). A more affordable path to HRMs is to use a global regionally refined model (RRM), which only simulates a portion of the globe at HR while the remaining is at low resolution (LR, 1°). In this study, we compare the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) RRM with the HR mesh over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to its corresponding globally uniform LR and HR configurations as well as to observations and reanalysis data. The RRM has a significantly reduced computational cost (roughly proportional to the HR mesh size) relative to the globally uniform HRM. Over the CONUS, we evaluate the simulation of important dynamical and physical quantities as well as various precipitation measures. Differences between the RRM and HRM over the HR region are predominantly small, demonstrating that the RRM reproduces the precipitation metrics of the HRM over the CONUS. Further analysis based on RRM simulations with the LR vs. HR model parameters reveals that RRM performance is greatly influenced by the different parameter choices used in the LR and HR EAMv1. This is a result of the poor scale-aware behavior of physical parameterizations, especially for variables influencing sub-grid-scale physical processes. RRMs can serve as a useful framework to test physics schemes across a range of scales, leading to improved consistency in future E3SM versions. Applying nudging-to-observations techniques within the RRM framework also demonstrates significant advantages over a free-running configuration for use as a test bed and as such represents an efficient and more robust physics test bed capability. Our results provide additional confirmatory evidence that the RRM is an efficient and effective test bed for HRM development.
Golaz, Jean C.; Caldwell, Peter M.; Van Roekel, Luke P.; Petersen, Mark R.; Tang, Qi; Wolfe, Jonathan D.; Abeshu, Guta; Anantharaj, Valentine; Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Bader, David C.; Baldwin, Sterling A.; Bisht, Gautam; Bogenschutz, Peter A.; Branstetter, Marcia; Brunke, Michael A.; Brus, Steven R.; Burrows, Susannah M.; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Donahue, Aaron S.; Deakin, Michael; Easter, Richard C.; Evans, Katherine J.; Feng, Yan; Flanner, Mark; Foucar, James G.; Fyke, Jeremy G.; Griffin, Brian M.; Hannay, Cecile; Harrop, Bryce E.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Jacob, Robert L.; Jacobsen, Douglas W.; Jeffery, Nicole; Jones, Philip W.; Keen, Noel D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Larson, Vincent E.; Leung, L.R.; Li, Hong Y.; Lin, Wuyin; Lipscomb, William H.; Ma, Po L.; Mahajan, Salil; Maltrud, Mathew E.; Mametjanov, Azamat; Mcclean, Julie L.; Mccoy, Renata B.; Neale, Richard B.; Price, Stephen F.; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Reeves Eyre, J.E.J.; Riley, William J.; Ringler, Todd D.; Roberts, Andrew F.; Roesler, Erika L.; Salinger, Andrew G.; Shaheen, Zeshawn; Shi, Xiaoying; Singh, Balwinder; Tang, Jinyun; Taylor, Mark A.; Thornton, Peter E.; Turner, Adrian K.; Veneziani, Milena; Wan, Hui; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Shanlin; Williams, Dean N.; Wolfram, Phillip J.; Worley, Patrick H.; Xie, Shaocheng; Yang, Yang; Yoon, Jin H.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Zender, Charles S.; Zeng, Xubin; Zhang, Chengzhu; Zhang, Kai; Zhang, Yuying; Zheng, Xue; Zhou, Tian; Zhu, Qing
This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110-km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60 km in the midlatitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55 km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations consisting of a long preindustrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between preindustrial (1850) and present day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the second half of the twentieth century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model's strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERFari+aci = −1.65 W/m2) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K).
This report details the activity of the project, "High Resolution Modeling and Measurements in the Arctic" spanning Fiscal Years 2016 - 2018 supported by the Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The project's primary goal was to test the hypothesis that global climate model bias of low boundary layer clouds lacking liquid water in the Arctic could be improved by increasing horizontal resolution in the model. As model resolution is constrained by computational resources, four different model types were explored and compared to test the project's primary theory. Given the Arctic is a data-sparse region lacking robust data sets of liquid water in clouds, this project also obtained in situ measurements of low clouds with sensors on a tethered balloon system to constrain and compare with the models. Although other model biases remained, the liquid water path generally increased with resolution, supporting the original hypothesis.
Aerial Assessment of Liquid in Clouds at Oliktok (AALCO) Intensive Operation Period (IOP) began in October, 2016 and ended in October, 2017 at the ARM Mobile Facility-3 (AMF-3) at Oliktok Point, Alaska. The operations tested super-cooled liquid water sensors (SLWCs), leaf-wetness sensors, radiosondes, and a distributed temperature sensor (DTS) on tethered balloon system (TBS) platforms throughout the period. An auto-reeler system, a helikite, and a aerostat were tested. When conditions were optimal, the aerostat was preferred to the helikite and the auto-reeler. It was found the SLWCs had better transmission and sensitivity to relay information about the near-surface cloudy boundary layer than the leaf-wetness sensors. The DTS was also found to give useful information about the atmospheric column and deployment is condition-dependent. Results from the SLWCs and DTS are being compared with high resolution Large Eddy Simulations (LES) in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM).
Three-dimensional large eddy simulations (LES) are used to analyze a springtime Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus observed on 26 April 2008 during the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign. Two subgrid-scale turbulence parameterizations are compared. The first scheme is a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (1.5-TKE) parameterization that has been previously applied to boundary layer cloud simulations. The second scheme, Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB), provides higher-order turbulent closure with scale awareness. The simulations, in comparisons with observations, show that both schemes produce the liquid profiles within measurement variability but underpredict ice water mass and overpredict ice number concentration. The simulation using CLUBB underpredicted liquid water path more than the simulation using the 1.5-TKE scheme, so the turbulent length scale and horizontal grid box size were increased to increase liquid water path and reduce dissipative energy. The LES simulations show this stratocumulus cloud to maintain a closed cellular structure, similar to observations. The updraft and downdraft cores self-organize into a larger meso-γ-scale convective pattern with the 1.5-TKE scheme, but the cores remain more isotropic with the CLUBB scheme. Additionally, the cores are often composed of liquid and ice instead of exclusively containing one or the other. These results provide insight into traditionally unresolved and unmeasurable aspects of an Arctic mixed-phase cloud. From analysis, this cloud’s updraft and downdraft cores appear smaller than other closed-cell stratocumulus such as midlatitude stratocumulus and Arctic autumnal mixed-phase stratocumulus due to the weaker downdrafts and lower precipitation rates. Plain Language Summary Low-lying clouds in the Arctic are ubiquitous and important to understand for the near-surface energy balance. These clouds are difficult to measure because of the challenging environment in which they reside. High-resolution models are tools that help fill in knowledge gaps about these clouds. In this work, we compare two different ways to represent fine motion within the cloud and see how the macrophysical properties of the cloud are affected. We found that one representation creates a more energetic cloud, and this type of cloud would exist longer than the other. We also are led to believe in these simulations that these clouds have different internal motions when compared to similar-looking clouds formed at lower latitudes or formed in a different season in the Arctic.
The Next Generation Global Atmosphere Model LDRD project developed a suite of atmosphere models: a shallow water model, an x-z hydrostatic model, and a 3D hydrostatic model, by using Albany, a finite element code. Albany provides access to a large suite of leading-edge Sandia high-performance computing technologies enabled by Trilinos, Dakota, and Sierra. The next-generation capabilities most relevant to a global atmosphere model are performance portability and embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ). Performance portability is the capability for a single code base to run efficiently on diverse set of advanced computing architectures, such as multi-core threading or GPUs. Embedded UQ refers to simulation algorithms that have been modified to aid in the quantifying of uncertainties. In our case, this means running multiple samples for an ensemble concurrently, and reaping certain performance benefits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches here as a prelude to introducing them into ACME.
This article discusses the problem of identifying extreme climate events such as intense storms within large climate data sets. The basic storm detection algorithm is reviewed, which splits the problem into two parts: a spatial search followed by a temporal correlation problem. Two specific implementations of the spatial search algorithm are compared: the commonly used grid point search algorithm is reviewed, and a new algorithm called Stride Search is introduced. The Stride Search algorithm is defined independently of the spatial discretization associated with a particular data set. Results from the two algorithms are compared for the application of tropical cyclone detection, and shown to produce similar results for the same set of storm identification criteria. Differences between the two algorithms arise for some storms due to their different definition of search regions in physical space. The physical space associated with each Stride Search region is constant, regardless of data resolution or latitude, and Stride Search is therefore capable of searching all regions of the globe in the same manner. Stride Search's ability to search high latitudes is demonstrated for the case of polar low detection. Wall clock time required for Stride Search is shown to be smaller than a grid point search of the same data, and the relative speed up associated with Stride Search increases as resolution increases.
The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research project, “Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling” is improving our understanding and modeling of regional details of the Earth’s water cycle. Sandia is using high resolution model behavior to investigate storms in the Arctic.