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Uncertainty quantification's role in modeling and simulation planning, and credibility assessment through the predictive capability maturity model

Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification

Rider, William J.; Witkowski, Walter R.; Mousseau, Vincent A.

The importance of credible, trustworthy numerical simulations is obvious especially when using the results for making high-consequence decisions. Determining the credibility of such numerical predictions is much more difficult and requires a systematic approach to assessing predictive capability, associated uncertainties and overall confidence in the computational simulation process for the intended use of the model. This process begins with an evaluation of the computational modeling of the identified, important physics of the simulation for its intended use. This is commonly done through a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT). Then an assessment of the evidence basis supporting the ability to computationally simulate these physics can be performed using various frameworks such as the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM). There were several critical activities that follow in the areas of code and solution verification, validation and uncertainty quantification, which will be described in detail in the following sections. Here, we introduce the subject matter for general applications but specifics are given for the failure prediction project. In addition, the first task that must be completed in the verification & validation procedure is to perform a credibility assessment to fully understand the requirements and limitations of the current computational simulation capability for the specific application intended use. The PIRT and PCMM are tools used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to provide a consistent manner to perform such an assessment. Ideally, all stakeholders should be represented and contribute to perform an accurate credibility assessment. PIRTs and PCMMs are both described in brief detail below and the resulting assessments for an example project are given.

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TYPE Journal Article YEAR 2016
DOIOSTI

Verification Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for CGS

Sandia journal manuscript; Not yet accepted for publication

Rider, William J.; Kamm, James R.; Weirs, Vincent G.

The overall conduct of verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) is discussed through the construction of a workflow relevant to computational modeling including the turbulence problem in the coarse grained simulation (CGS) approach. The workflow contained herein is defined at a high level and constitutes an overview of the activity. Nonetheless, the workflow represents an essential activity in predictive simulation and modeling. VVUQ is complex and necessarily hierarchical in nature. The particular characteristics of VVUQ elements depend upon where the VVUQ activity takes place in the overall hierarchy of physics and models. In this chapter, we focus on the differences between and interplay among validation, calibration and UQ, as well as the difference between UQ and sensitivity analysis. The discussion in this chapter is at a relatively high level and attempts to explain the key issues associated with the overall conduct of VVUQ. The intention is that computational physicists can refer to this chapter for guidance regarding how VVUQ analyses fit into their efforts toward conducting predictive calculations.

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TYPE Journal Article YEAR 2015
OSTIOSTI

Development of a fourth generation predictive capability maturity model

Hills, Richard G.; Witkowski, Walter R.; Rider, William J.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Urbina, Angel U.

The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNLs mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2013
DOIOSTI

ALEGRA Update: Modernization and Resilience Progress

Robinson, Allen C.; Petney, Sharon P.; Drake, Richard R.; Weirs, Vincent G.; Adams, Brian M.; Vigil, Dena V.; Carpenter, John H.; Garasi, Christopher J.; Wong, Michael K.; Robbins, Joshua R.; Siefert, Christopher S.; Strack, Otto E.; Wills, Ann E.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Bochev, Pavel B.; Summers, Randall M.; Stewart, James R.; Ober, Curtis C.; Rider, William J.; Haill, Thomas A.; Lemke, Raymond W.; Cochrane, Kyle C.; Desjarlais, Michael P.; Love, Edward L.; Voth, Thomas E.; Mosso, Stewart J.; Niederhaus, John H.

Abstract not provided.

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TYPE Conference YEAR 2013
OSTI
Results 26–50 of 105
Results 26–50 of 105