This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 associated with the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package funded by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD).
Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. This study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.
Sandia National Laboratories has conducted geomechanical analysis to evaluate the performance of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by modeling the viscoplastic, or creep, behavior of the salt in which their oil-storage caverns reside. The operation-driven imbalance between fluid pressure within the salt cavern and in-situ stress acting on the surrounding salt can cause the salt to creep, potentially leading to a loss of the cavern volume and consequently deformation of borehole casings. Therefore, a greater understanding of salt creep's behavior on borehole casing needs to be addressed to drive cavern operations decisions. To evaluate potential casing damage mechanisms with variation in geological constraints (e.g. material characteristics of salt or caprock) or physical mechanisms of cavern leakage, we developed a generic model with a layered and domal geometry including nine caverns, rather than use a specific field-site model, to save computational costs. The geomechanical outputs, such as cavern volume changes, vertical strain along the dome and caprock above the cavern and vertical displacement at the surface or cavern top, quantifies the impact of material parameters and cavern locations as well as multiple operations in multiple caverns on an individual cavern stability.
Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO32−, O2, Fe2+, and H2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.
Migration of seismic events to deeper depths along basement faults over time has been observed in the wastewater injection sites, which can be correlated spatially and temporally to the propagation or retardation of pressure fronts and corresponding poroelastic response to given operation history. The seismicity rate model has been suggested as a physical indicator for the potential of earthquake nucleation along faults by quantifying poroelastic response to multiple well operations. Our field-scale model indicates that migrating patterns of 2015–2018 seismicity observed near Venus, TX are likely attributed to spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stressing rate constrained by the fault permeability. Even after reducing injection volumes since 2015, pore pressure continues to diffuse and steady transfer of elastic energy to the deep fault zone increases stressing rate consistently that can induce more frequent earthquakes at large distance scales. Sensitivity tests with variation in fault permeability show that (1) slow diffusion along a low-permeability fault limits earthquake nucleation near the injection interval or (2) rapid relaxation of pressure buildup within a high-permeability fault, caused by reducing injection volumes, may mitigate the seismic potential promptly.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 associated with the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
Fractured media models comprise discontinuities of multiple lengths (e.g. fracture lengths and apertures, wellbore area) that fall into the relatively insignificant length scales spanning millimeter-scale fractures to centimeter-scale wellbores in comparison to the extensions of the field of interest, and challenge the conventional discretization methods imposing highly-fine meshing and formidably large numerical cost. By utilizing the recent developments in the finite element analysis of electromagnetics that allow to represent material properties on a hierarchical geometry, this project develops computational capabilities to model fluid flow, heat conduction, transport and induced polarization in large-scale geologic environments that possess geometrically-complex fractures and man-made infrastructures without explosive computational cost. The computational efficiency and robustness of this multi-physics modeling tool are demonstrated by considering various highly-realistic complex geologic environments that are common in many energy and national security related engineering problems.
Prediction of flow, transport, and deformation in fractured and porous media is critical to improving our scientific understanding of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical processes related to subsurface energy storage and recovery, nonproliferation, and nuclear waste storage. Especially, earth rock response to changes in pressure and stress has remained a critically challenging task. In this work, we advance computational capabilities for coupled processes in fractured and porous media using Sandia Sierra Multiphysics software through verification and validation problems such as poro-elasticity, elasto-plasticity and thermo-poroelasticity. We apply Sierra software for geologic carbon storage, fluid injection/extraction, and enhanced geothermal systems. We also significantly improve machine learning approaches through latent space and self-supervised learning. Additionally, we develop new experimental technique for evaluating dynamics of compacted soils at an intermediate scale. Overall, this project will enable us to systematically measure and control the earth system response to changes in stress and pressure due to subsurface energy activities.
Performance of geologic radioactive waste repositories depends on near-field and far-field processes, including km-scale flow and transport in engineered and natural barriers, that may require simulations of up to 1 M years of regulatory period. For a relatively short time span (less than 1000 years), the thermohydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) coupled processes caused by heat from the waste package will influence near-field multiphase flow, chemical/reactive transport, and mechanical behaviors in the repository system. This study integrates the heat-driven perturbations in thermo-hydro-mechanical characteristics into thermo-hydro-chemical simulations using PFLOTRAN to reduce dimensionality and improve computational efficiency by implementing functions of stress-dependent permeability and saturation-temperature-dependent thermal conductivity. These process couplings are developed for spent nuclear fuel in dual-purpose canisters in two different hypothetical repositories: a shale repository and a salt repository.
Large-scale CO2 sequestration into geological formations has been suggested to reduce CO2 emissions from industrial activities. However, much like enhanced geothermal stimulation and wastewater injection, CO2 sequestration has a potential to induce earthquake along weak faults, which can be considered a negative impact on safety and public opinion. This study shows the physical mechanisms of potential seismic hazards along basement faults driven by CO2 sequestration under variation in geological and operational constraints. Specifically we compare the poroelastic behaviors between multiphase flow and single-phase flow cases, highlighting specific needs of evaluating induced seismicity associated with CO2 sequestration. In contrast to single-phase injection scenario, slower migration of the CO2 plume than pressure pulse may delay accumulation of pressure and stress along basement faults that may not be mitigated immediately by shut-in of injection. The impact of multiphase flow system, therefore, needs to be considered for proper monitoring and mitigation strategies.
Injecting CO2 into a deep geological formation (i.e., geological carbon storage, GCS) can induce earthquakes along preexisting faults in the earth's upper crust. Seismic survey and regional geo-structure analysis are typically employed to map the faults prone to earthquakes prior to injection. However, earthquakes induced by fluid injection from other subsurface energy storage and recovery activities show that systematic evaluation of the potential of induced seismicity associated with GCS is necessary. This study mechanistically investigates how multiphysical interaction among injected CO2, preexisting pore fluids and rock matrix alters stress states on faults and which physical mechanisms can nucleate earthquakes along the faults. Increased injection pressure is needed to overcome capillary entry pressure of the fault zone, driven by the contrast of fluids' wetting characteristics. Accumulated CO2 within the reservoir delays post shut-in reduction in pressure and stress fields along the fault that may enhance the potential for earthquake nucleation after terminating injection operations. Elastic energy generated by coupled processes transfers to low-permeability or hydraulically isolated basement faults, which can initiate slip of the faults. Our findings from generic studies suggest that geomechanical simulations integrated with multiphase flow system are essential to detect deformation-driven signals and mitigate potential seismic hazards associated with CO2 injection.
Thermal and hydrological behaviors of multiphase pore fluids in the presence of heat cause the near-field thermo-hydro-mechanicalchemical (THMC) coupled processes that can influence performance of geologic radioactive waste repositories. This hydro-thermal impacts may perturb the geomechanical stability of the disturbed rock zone (DRZ) surrounding the drifts in a shale-hosted deep geologic repository, which links heat/fluid flow and chemical/reactive transport between the engineered barrier system (EBS) and the host rock. This work focuses on integrating the effects of a near-field geomechanical process driven by buffer swelling into TH simulations to reduce dimensionality and improve computational efficiency. This geomechanical process can reduce the DRZ permeability, potentially influencing the rate of radionuclide transport and exchange with corrosive species in host rock groundwater that could accelerate waste package degradation. The sensitivity test with variation in host rock permeability indicates that less permeable shale retards re-saturation of the buffer, such that slower increase of swelling pressure delays reduction of DRZ permeability.
Performance assessment (PA) of geologic radioactive waste repositories requires three-dimensional simulation of highly nonlinear, thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC), multiphase flow and transport processes across many kilometers and over tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Integrating the effects of a near-field geomechanical process (i.e. buffer swelling) into coupled THC simulations through reduced-order modeling, rather than through fully coupled geomechanics, can reduce the dimensionality of the problem and improve computational efficiency. In this study, PFLOTRAN simulations model a single waste package in a shale host rock repository, where re-saturation of a bentonite buffer causes the buffer to swell and exert stress on a highly fractured disturbed rock zone (DRZ). Three types of stress-dependent permeability functions (exponential, modified cubic, and Two-part Hooke's law models) are implemented to describe mechanical characteristics of the system. Our modeling study suggests that compressing fractures reduces DRZ permeability, which could influence the rate of radionuclide transport and exchange with corrosive species in host rock groundwater that could accelerate waste package degradation. Less permeable shale host rock delays buffer swelling, consequently retarding DRZ permeability reduction as well as chemical transport within the barrier system.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and highlevel nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for SFWST disposal R&D is disposal system modeling (DOE 2012, Table 6; Sevougian et al. 2019). The SFWST Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) work package is charged with developing a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating generic disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 associated with the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
This is a progress report on thermal modeling for dual-purpose canister (DPCs) direct disposal that covers several available calculation methods and addresses creep and temperature-dependent properties in a salt repository. Three modeling approaches are demonstrated: A semi-analytical calculation method that uses linear solutions with superposition and imaging, to represent a central waste package in a larger array; A finite difference model of coupled thermal creep, implemented in FLAC2D; and An integrated finite difference thermal-hydrologic modeling approach for repositories in different generic host media, implemented in PFLOTRAN. These approaches are at different levels of maturity, and future work is expected to add refinements and establish the best applications for each.
Coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along pre-existing faults in deep basement contribute to recent occurrence of seismic events at subsurface energy exploration sites. Our coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical model describes the physical processes inducing seismicity corresponding to the sequential stimulation operations in Pohang, South Korea. Simulation results show that prolonged accumulation of poroelastic energy and pore pressure along a fault can nucleate seismic events larger than Mw3 even after terminating well operations. In particular the possibility of large seismic events can be increased by multiple-well operations with alternate injection and extraction that can enhance the degree of pore-pressure diffusion and subsequent stress transfer through a rigid and low-permeability rock to the fault. This study demonstrates that the proper mechanistic model and optimal well operations need to be accounted for to mitigate unexpected seismic hazards in the presence of the site-specific uncertainty such as hidden/undetected faults and stress regime.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and highlevel nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for SFWST disposal R&D is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes fiscal year (FY) 2020 advances of the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework and PFLOTRAN development groups of the SFWST Campaign. The common mission of these groups is to develop a geologic disposal system modeling capability for nuclear waste that can be used to probabilistically assess the performance of disposal options and generic sites. The capability is a framework called GDSA Framework that employs high-performance computing (HPC) capable codes PFLOTRAN and Dakota.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 associated with the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
In model simulations of deep geologic repositories, UO2 fuel matrix degradation typically begins as soon as the waste package breaches and groundwater contacts the fuel surface. The initial degradation rate depends on the timing of these events, burnup of the fuel, temperature, and concentrations of dissolved reactants. Estimating the initial rate of degradation is fairly straightforward, but as UO2 corrosion products precipitate on the fuel surface and the movement of dissolved species between the fuel surface and environment is impeded by the precipitated solids, the rate is more difficult to quantify. At that point, calculating the degradation rate becomes a reactive-transport problem in which a large number of equations must be solved by iteration for a large number of grid cells at each time step. The consequence is that repository simulations, which are already expensive, become much more expensive, especially when hundreds or thousands of waste packages breach. The Fuel Matrix Degradation (FMD) model is the process model of the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign of the US Department of Energy (DOE). It calculates spent fuel degradation rates as a function of radiolysis, redox reactions, electrochemical reactions, alteration layer growth, and diffusion of reactants through the alteration layer. Like other similar fuel degradation process models, it is a complicated model requiring a large number of calculations and iterations at each time step.
Recent observations of seismic events at the subsurface energy exploration sites show that spatial and temporal correlations sometimes do not match the spatial order of the known or detected fault location from the injection well. This study investigates the coupled flow and geomechanical control on the patterns of induced seismicity along multiple basement faults that show an unusual spatiotemporal relation with induced seismicity occurring in the far field first, followed by the near field. Two possible geological scenarios considered are (1) the presence of conductive hydraulic pathway within the basement connected to the distant fault (hydraulic connectivity) and (2) no hydraulic pathway, but the coexistence of faults with mixed polarity (favorability to slip) as observed at Azle, TX. Based on the Coulomb stability analysis and seismicity rate estimates, simulation results show that direct pore pressure diffusion through a hydraulic pathway to the distant fault can generate a larger number of seismicity than along the fault close to the injection well. Prior to pore pressure diffusion, elastic stress transfer can initiate seismic activity along the favorably oriented fault, even at the longer distance to the well, which may explain the deep 2013–2014 Azle earthquake sequences. This study emphasizes that hydrological and geomechanical features of faults will locally control poroelastic coupling mechanisms, potentially influencing the spatiotemporal pattern of injection-induced seismicity, which can be used to infer subsurface architecture of fault/fracture networks.
Quantifying in-situ subsurface stresses and predicting fracture development are critical to reducing risks of induced seismicity and improving modern energy activities in the subsurface. In this work, we developed a novel integration of controlled mechanical failure experiments coupled with microCT imaging, acoustic sensing, modeling of fracture initiation and propagation, and machine learning for event detections and waveform characterization. Through additive manufacturing (3D printing), we were able to produce bassanite-gypsum rock samples with repeatable physical, geochemical and structural properties. With these "geoarchitected" rock, we provided the role of mineral texture orientation on fracture surface roughness. The impact of poroelastic coupling on induced seismicity has been systematically investigated to improve mechanistic understanding of post shut-in surge of induced seismicity. This research will set the groundwork for characterizing seismic waveforms by using multiphysics and machine learning approaches and improve the detection of low-magnitude seismic events leading to the discovery of hidden fault/fracture systems.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in fiscal year (FY) 2019 associated with FY19 Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
The fluid injection into the subsurface perturbs the states of pore pressure and stress on the pre-existing faults, potentially causing earthquakes. In the multiphase flow system, the contrast of fluid and rock properties between different structures produces the changes in pressure gradients and subsequently stress fields. Assuming two-phase fluid flow (gas-water system) and poroelasticity, we simulate the three-layered formation including a basement fault, in which injection-induced pressure encounters the fault directly given injection scenarios. The single-phase poroelasticity model with the same setting is also conducted to evaluate the multiphase flow effects on poroelastic response of the fault to gas injection. Sensitivity tests are performed by varying the fault permeability. The presence of gaseous phase reduces the pressure buildup within the highly gas-saturated region, causing less Coulomb stress changes, whereas capillarity increases the pore pressure within the gas-water mixed region. Even though the gaseous plume does not approach the fault, the poroelastic stressing can affect the fault stability, potentially the earthquake occurrence.
Understanding of the potential to injection‐induced seismicity along faults requires the response of fault zone system to spatiotemporal perturbations in pore pressure and stress. In this study, three‐dimensional (3‐D) model system consisting of the caprock, reservoir, and basement is intersected by vertical strike‐slip faults. We examine the full poroelastic behavior of the formation and perform the mechanical analysis along each fault zone using the Coulomb stress change. The magnitude, rate, and location of potential earthquakes are predicted using the spatial distribution of stresses and pore pressure over time. Rapid diffusion of pore pressure into conductive faults initiates failure, but the majority of induced seismicity occurs at deep fault zones due to poroelastic stabilization near the injection interval. Less permeable faults can be destabilized by either delayed pore pressure diffusion or poroelastic stressing. A two‐dimensional (2‐D) horizontal model, representing the interface between the reservoir and the basement, limits diffusion of pore pressure and deformation of the formation in the vertical direction that may overestimate or underestimate the potential of earthquakes along the fault. Our numerical results suggest that the 3‐D modeling of faulting system including poroelastic coupling can reduce the uncertainty in the seismic hazard prediction by considering the hydraulic and mechanical interaction between faults and bounding formations.
Injection of large amounts of fluid into the subsurface alters the states of pore pressure and stress in the formation, potentially inducing earthquakes. Increase in the seismicity rate after shut-in is often observed at fluid-injection operation sites, but mechanistic study of the rate surge has not been investigated thoroughly. Considering full poroelastic coupling of pore pressure and stress, the earthquake occurrence after shut-in can be driven by two mechanisms: (1) post shut-in diffusion of pore pressure into distant faults and (2) poroelastic stressing caused by fluid injection. Interactions of these mechanisms can depend on fault geometry, hydraulic and mechanical properties of the formation, and injection operation. In this work, a 2D aerial view of the target reservoir intersected by strike-slip basement faults is used to evaluate the impact of injection-induced pressure buildup on seismicity rate surge. A series of sensitivity tests are performed by considering the variation in (1) permeability of the fault zone, (2) locations and the number of faults with respect to the injector, and (3) well operations with time-dependent injection rates. Lower permeability faults have higher seismicity rates than more permeable faults after shut-in due to delayed diffusion and poroelastic stressing. Hydraulic barriers, depending on their relative location to injection, can either stabilize or weaken a conductive fault via poroelastic stresses. Gradual reduction of the injection rate minimizes the coulomb stress change and the least seismicity rates are predicted due to slower relaxation of coupling-induced compression as well as pore-pressure dissipation.
The fluid injection into deep geological formations altar the states of pore pressure and stress on the faults, potentially causing earthquakes. In the multiphase flow system, the interaction between fluid flow and mechanical deformation in porous media is critical to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of pore pressure and stress. The contrast of fluid and rock properties between different structures produces the changes in pressure gradients and subsequently stress fields. Assuming two-phase fluid flow (gas-water system), we simulate the two-dimensional reservoir including a basement fault, in which injection-induced pressure encounters the fault directly given injection scenarios. The single-phase flow model with the same setting is also conducted to evaluate the multiphase flow effects on mechanical response of the fault to gas injection. A series of sensitivity tests are performed by varying the fault permeability. The presence of gaseous phase reduces the pressure buildup within the gas-saturated region, causing less Coulomb stress change. The low-permeability fault prevent diffusion initially as observed in the single-phase flow system. Once gaseous phase approaches, the fault acts as a capillary barrier that causes increases in pressure within the fault zone, potentially inducing earthquakes even without direct diffusion.