Publications

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Genetic algorithms provide attractive options for performing nonlinear multi-objective combinatorial design optimization, and they have proven very useful for optimizing individual systems. However, conventional genetic algorithms fall short when performing holistic portfolio optimizations in which the decision variables also include the integer counts of multiple system types over multiple time periods. When objective functions are formulated as analytic functions, we can formally differentiate with respect to system counts and use the resulting gradient information to generate favorable mutations in the count variables. We apply several variations on this basic idea to an idealized hanging chain example to obtain >> 1000x speedups over conventional genetic algorithms in both single - and multi-objective cases. We develop a more complex example of a notional military portfolio that includes combinatorial design variables and dependency constraints between the design choices. In this case, our initial results are mixed, but many variations are still open to further research.

Microgrids are a focus of localized energy production that support resiliency, security, local con- trol, and increased access to renewable resources (among other potential benefits). The Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security (SPIDERS) Joint Capa- bility Technology Demonstration (JCTD) program between the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Energy (DOE), and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) resulted in the pre- liminary design and deployment of three microgrids at military installations. This paper is focused on the analysis process and supporting software used to determine optimal designs for energy surety microgrids (ESMs) in the SPIDERS project. There are two key pieces of software, an ex- isting software application developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) called Technology Management Optimization (TMO) and a new simulation developed for SPIDERS called the per- formance reliability model (PRM). TMO is a decision support tool that performs multi-objective optimization over a mixed discrete/continuous search space for which the performance measures are unrestricted in form. The PRM is able to statistically quantify the performance and reliability of a microgrid operating in islanded mode (disconnected from any utility power source). Together, these two software applications were used as part of the ESM process to generate the preliminary designs presented by SNL-led DOE team to the DOD. Acknowledgements Sandia National Laboratories and the SPIDERS technical team would like to acknowledge the following for help in the project: * Mike Hightower, who has been the key driving force for Energy Surety Microgrids * Juan Torres and Abbas Akhil, who developed the concept of microgrids for military instal- lations * Merrill Smith, U.S. Department of Energy SPIDERS Program Manager * Ross Roley and Rich Trundy from U.S. Pacific Command * Bill Waugaman and Bill Beary from U.S. Northern Command * Tarek Abdallah, Melanie Johnson, and Harold Sanborn of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratory * Colleagues from Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for their reviews, suggestions, and participation in the work.

Many critical loads rely on simple backup generation to provide electricity in the event of a power outage. An Energy Surety Microgrid TM can protect against outages caused by single generator failures to improve reliability. An ESM will also provide a host of other benefits, including integration of renewable energy, fuel optimization, and maximizing the value of energy storage. The ESM concept includes a categorization for microgrid value proposi- tions, and quantifies how the investment can be justified during either grid-connected or utility outage conditions. In contrast with many approaches, the ESM approach explic- itly sets requirements based on unlikely extreme conditions, including the need to protect against determined cyber adversaries. During the United States (US) Department of Defense (DOD)/Department of Energy (DOE) Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security (SPIDERS) effort, the ESM methodology was successfully used to develop the preliminary designs, which direct supported the contracting, construction, and testing for three military bases. Acknowledgements Sandia National Laboratories and the SPIDERS technical team would like to acknowledge the following for help in the project: * Mike Hightower, who has been the key driving force for Energy Surety Microgrids * Juan Torres and Abbas Akhil, who developed the concept of microgrids for military installations * Merrill Smith, U.S. Department of Energy SPIDERS Program Manager * Ross Roley and Rich Trundy from U.S. Pacific Command * Bill Waugaman and Bill Beary from U.S. Northern Command * Melanie Johnson and Harold Sanborn of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Construc- tion Engineering Research Laboratory * Experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

The Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) is a decision support software tool for microgrid designers to use during the microgrid design process. The models that support the two main capabilities in MDT are described. The first capability, the Microgrid Sizing Capability (MSC), is used to determine the size and composition of a new microgrid in the early stages of the design process. MSC is a mixed-integer linear program that is focused on developing a microgrid that is economically viable when connected to the grid. The second capability is focused on refining a microgrid design for operation in islanded mode. This second capability relies on two models: the Technology Management Optimization (TMO) model and Performance Reliability Model (PRM). TMO uses a genetic algorithm to create and refine a collection of candidate microgrid designs. It uses PRM, a simulation based reliability model, to assess the performance of these designs. TMO produces a collection of microgrid designs that perform well with respect to one or more performance metrics.

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Identifying high-performance, system-level microgrid designs is a significant challenge due to the overwhelming array of possible configurations. Uncertainty relating to loads, utility outages, renewable generation, and fossil generator reliability further complicates this design problem. In this paper, the performance of a candidate microgrid design is assessed by running a discrete event simulation that includes extended, unplanned utility outages during which microgrid performance statistics are computed. Uncertainty is addressed by simulating long operating times and computing average performance over many stochastic outage scenarios. Classifier-guided sampling, a Bayesian classifier-based optimization algorithm for computationally expensive design problems, is used to search and identify configurations that result in reduced average load not served while not exceeding a predetermined microgrid construction cost. The city of Hoboken, NJ, which sustained a severe outage following Hurricane Sandy in October, 2012, is used as an example of a location in which a well-designed microgrid could be of great benefit during an extended, unplanned utility outage. The optimization results illuminate design trends and provide insights into the traits of high-performance configurations.

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy devastated much of the U.S. northeast coastal areas. Among those hardest hit was the small community of Hoboken, New Jersey, located on the banks of the Hudson River across from Manhattan. This report describes a city-wide electrical infrastructure design that uses microgrids and other infrastructure to ensure the city retains functionality should such an event occur in the future. The designs ensure that up to 55 critical buildings will retain power during blackout or flooded conditions and include analysis for microgrid architectures, performance parameters, system control, renewable energy integration, and financial opportunities (while grid connected). The results presented here are not binding and are subject to change based on input from the Hoboken stakeholders, the integrator selected to manage and implement the microgrid, or other subject matter experts during the detailed (final) phase of the design effort.

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quanti cation, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

The objective is to find the optimal fuel inventory management strategy roadmap for each supplier along the fuel delivery supply chain. SoSAT (System of Systems Analysis Toolset) Enterprise is a suite of software tools: State Model tool; Stochastic simulation tool; Advanced data visualization tools; and Optimization tools. Initially designed to provide DoDand supporting organizations the capability to analyze a System-of-Systems (SoS) and its various platforms: (1) Supporting multiple US Army Program Executive Office Integration (PEO-I) trade studies; (2) Supporting US Army Program Executive Office of Ground Combat Systems (PEO GCS) for Fleet Management and Modernization Planning initiative; and (3) Participating in formal Verification, Validation & Accreditation effort with Army Organizations (AMSAA and ATEC).

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The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a developers manual for the DAKOTA software and describes the DAKOTA class hierarchies and their interrelationships. It derives directly from annotation of the actual source code and provides detailed class documentation, including all member functions and attributes.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a reference manual for the commands specification for the DAKOTA software, providing input overviews, option descriptions, and example specifications.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

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This report documents the results of an LDRD program entitled ''Network and Adaptive System of Systems Modeling and Analysis'' that was conducted during FY 2005 and FY 2006. The purpose of this study was to determine and implement ways to incorporate network communications modeling into existing System of Systems (SoS) modeling capabilities. Current SoS modeling, particularly for the Future Combat Systems (FCS) program, is conducted under the assumption that communication between the various systems is always possible and occurs instantaneously. A more realistic representation of these communications allows for better, more accurate simulation results. The current approach to meeting this objective has been to use existing capabilities to model network hardware reliability and adding capabilities to use that information to model the impact on the sustainment supply chain and operational availability.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a reference manual for the commands specification for the DAKOTA software, providing input overviews, option descriptions, and example specifications.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a developers manual for the DAKOTA software and describes the DAKOTA class hierarchies and their interrelationships. It derives directly from annotation of the actual source code and provides detailed class documentation, including all member functions and attributes.