List-Mode Inference using Linear Classifiers for Nuclear Arms Control Verification
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The Open Radiation Monitoring (ORM) Project seeks to develop and demonstrate a modular radiation detection architecture designed specifically for use in arms control treaty verification (ACTV) applications that will facilitate rapid development of trusted systems to meet the needs of potential future treaties. Development of trusted systems to support potential future treaties is a complex and costly endeavor that typically results in a purpose-built system designed to perform one specific task. The majority of prior trusted system development efforts have relied on the use of commercial embedded computers or microprocessors to control the system and process the acquired data. These processors are complex, making authentication and certification of measurement systems and collected data challenging and time consuming. We believe that a modular architecture can be used to reduce more complex systems to a series of single-purpose building blocks that could be used to implement a variety of detection modalities with shared functionalities. With proper design, the functionality of individual modules can be confirmed through simple input/output testing, thereby facilitating equipment inspection and in turn building trust in the equipment by all treaty parties. Furthermore, a modular architecture can be used to control data flow within the measurement system, reducing the risk of "hidden switches" and constraining the amount of sensitive information that could potentially be inadvertently leaked. This report documents a conceptual modular system architecture that is designed to facilitate inspection in an effort to reduce overall authentication and certification burden. As of publication, this architecture remains in a conceptual phase and additional funding is required to prove out the utility of a modular architecture and test the assumptions used to rationalize the design.
Recent years have seen a significantly increased focus in the areas of knowledge retention and mentoring of junior staff within the U.S. national laboratory complex. In order to involve the university community in this process, as well, an international safeguards mentoring program was established by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for early career university faculty. After a successful experience during 2019, the program continued into 2020 to include two new faculty members who were paired with SNL subject matter experts based on the topic of their individual projects: one to work on advanced laboratory work for physics, technology, and policy of nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation, and the other to look at machine learning applied to international safeguards and nonproliferation. There is a two-pronged purpose to the program: fostering the development of educational resources available for international safeguards and exploring new research topics stemming from the exchange of mentor and mentee. Further, the program as a whole allows for junior faculty members to establish and expand a relationship network within international safeguards. In addition, programs such as this build stronger connections between the academic and the national laboratory community. Thanks to the junior faculty members that now have new connections into the laboratory community and potential for collaboration projects with the laboratories in the future, safeguards knowledge can actually increase far beyond just individually engaging students using this new and efficient avenue.
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Continuing previous efforts to investigate and develop the Unclassified Radioisotope Algorithm, the goal of the FY19-FY20 effort was to develop a prototype detector system which uses the algorithm to confirm warhead attributes related to the presence of either weapons grade plutonium (WGPu) or highly enriched uranium (HEU). The final deliverable is a prototype attribute measurement system built with common, commercially available gamma radiation detector components, capable of confirming the presence of specific, complex radioactive sources of interest, without the collection and storage of gamma energy spectra. This is accomplished by processing each gamma pulse as it is received, applying weight values based on the energy and incrementing or decrementing scalar counters which can be compared with expected values to determine if the measured source is consistent with WGPu or HEU. This report documents the design of the prototype system as well as the development of the algorithm and performance testing results. While the previously conceptualized, simple algorithm resulted in a prohibitive amount of false positives, the goal for a simple attribute measurement system capable of verifying Ba-133 and Ra-226 (weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium surrogate testing sources) at over 95% accuracy with sub 5% false positive rate was demonstrated.
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