Publications

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Although studies of many respiratory viruses and pollens are often framed by both seasonal and health related perspectives, pollen has yet to be extensively examined as an important covariate to seasonal respiratory viruses (SRVs) in any context, including a causal one. This study contributes to those goals through an investigation of SRVs and pollen counts at selected regions across the Western Hemisphere. Two complementary decadal-scaled geospatial profiles were developed. One laterally spanned the US and was anchored by detailed pollen information for Albuquerque, New Mexico. The other straddled the equator to include Fortaleza, Brazil. We found that the geospatial and climatological patterns of pollen advancement and decline across the US every year presented a statistically significant correlation to the subsequent emergence and decline of SRVs. Other significant covariates included winds, temperatures, and atmospheric moisture. Our study indicates that areas of the US with lower geostrophic wind baselines are typically areas of persistently higher and earlier influenza like illness (ILI) cases. In addition to that continental- scaled contrast, many sites indicated seasonal highs of geostrophic winds and ILI which were closely aligned. These observations suggest extensive scale-dependent connectivity of viruses to geostrophic circulation. Pollen emergence and its own scale-dependent circulation may contribute to the geospatial and seasonal patterns of ILI. We explore some uncertainties associated with this investigation, and consider the possibility that in a temperate climate, following a Spring pollen emergence, a resulting increase in pollen triggered human Immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies may suppress ILIs for several months.

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The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy is conducting a brine availability heater test to characterize the thermal, mechanical, hydrological and chemical response of salt at elevated temperatures. In the heater test, brines will be collected and analyzed for chemical compositions. In order to support the geochemical modeling of chemical evolutions of the brines during the heater test, we are recalibrating and validating the solubility models for the mineral constituents in salt formations up to 100°C, based on the solubility data in multiple component systems as well as simple systems from literature. In this work, we systematically compare the model-predicted values based on the various solubility models related to the constituents of salt formations, with the experimental data. As halite is the dominant constituent in salt formations, we first test the halite solubility model in the Na-Mg-Cl dominated brines. We find the existing halite solubility model systematically over-predict the solubility of halite. We recalibrate the halite model, which can reproduce halite solubilities in Na-Mg-Cl dominated brines well. As gypsum/anhydrite in salt formations controls the sulfate concentrations in associated brines, we test the gypsum solubility model in NaCl solutions up to 5.87 mol•kg-1 from 25°C to 50°C. The testing shows that the current gypsum solubility model reproduces the experimental data well when NaCl concentrations are less than 1 mol•kg-1. However, at NaCl concentrations higher than 1, the model systematically overpredicts the solubility of gypsum. In the Na - Cl - SO4 - CO3 system, the validation tests up to 100°C demonstrate that the model excellently reproduces the experimental data for the solution compositions equilibrated with one single phase such as halite (NaCl) or thenardite (Na2SO4), with deviations equal to, or less than, 1.5 %. The model is much less ideal in reproducing the compositions in equilibrium with the assemblages of halite + thenardite, and of halite + thermonatrite (Na2CO3•H2O), with deviations up to 31 %. The high deviations from the experimental data for the multiple assemblages in this system at elevated temperatures may be attributed to the facts that the database has the Pitzer interaction parameters for Cl - CO3 and SO4 - CO3 only at 25°C. In the Na - Ca - SO4 - HCO3 system, the validation tests also demonstrate that the model reproduces the equilibrium compositions for one single phase such as gypsum better than the assemblages of more than one phase.

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Shale is characterized by the predominant presence of nanometer-scale (1-100 nm) pores. The behavior of fluids in those pores directly controls shale gas storage and release in shale matrix and ultimately the wellbore production in unconventional reservoirs. Recently, it has been recognized that a fluid confined in nanopores can behave dramatically differently from the corresponding bulk phase due to nanopore confinement (Wang, 2014). CO₂ and H₂O, either preexisting or introduced, are two major components that coexist with shale gas (predominately CH₄) during hydrofracturing and gas extraction.

Fluid inclusions are found within mineral crystals or along grain boundaries in many sedimentary rocks, notably in evaporite formations, and can migrate along a thermal or hydro-mechanical gradient. Shale and salt rocks have been considered potential host rocks for radioactive waste disposal, due to their low permeability. Previously stagnant inclusions may become mobilised by a perturbation of the in situ state by a geotechnical installation or the emplacement of heat-generating waste. The migration of fluid inclusions can thus have important impacts on the long-term performance of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste disposal. As a part of the international research project DECOVALEX-2019, two aspects of fluid inclusion migration in rock salt are currently investigated under different boundary conditions: a) altered hydro-mechanical conditions as a consequence of tunnel excavation or borehole drilling and b) coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical conditions during the heating period of the post-closure phase of a repository. To obtain a mechanistic understanding of underlying physical processes for fluid inclusion migration, a multi-scale modelling strategy has been developed. Microscale hydraulic and time-dependent mechanical conditions related to the creep behaviour of rock salt are constrained by considering the macroscale stress evolution of an underground excavation. An analysis using a coupled two-phase flow and elasto-plastic model with a consideration of permeability variation indicates that a pathway dilation along the halite grain boundary may increase the permeability by two orders of magnitude. The calculated high flow velocity may explain the fast pressure build-up observed in the field. In addition, a mathematical model for the migration and morphological evolution of a single fluid inclusion under a thermal gradient has been formulated. A first-order analysis of the model leads to a simple mathematical expression that is able to explain the key observations of thermally driven inclusion migration in salt. Finally, numerical methods such as a phase field method for solving a moving boundary problem of fluid inclusion migration have also been explored.

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The catastrophic nuclear reactor accident at Fukushima damaged public confidence in nuclear energy and a demand for new engineered safety features that could mitigate or prevent radiation releases to the environment in the future. We have developed a novel use of sacrificial material (SM) to prevent the molten corium from breaching containment during accidents as well as a validated, novel, high-fidelity modeling capability to design and optimize the proposed concept. Some new reactor designs employ a core catcher and a SM, such as ceramic or concrete, to slow the molten corium and avoid the breach of the containment. However, existing reactors cannot easily be modified to include these SMs but could be modified to allow injectable cooling materials (current designs are limited to water). The SM proposed in this Laboratory Development Research and Development (LDRD) project is based on granular carbonate minerals that can be used in existing light water reactor plants. This new SM will induce an endothermic reaction to quickly freeze the corium in place, with minimal hydrogen explosion and maximum radionuclide retention. Because corium spreading is a complex process strongly influenced by coupled chemical reactions (with underlying containment material and especially with the proposed SM), decay heat and phase change. No existing tool is available for modeling such a complex process. This LDRD project focused on two research areas: experiments to demonstrate the feasibility of the novel SM concept, and modeling activities to determine the potential applications of the concept to actual nuclear plants. We have demonstrated small-scale to large-scaled experiments using lead oxide (Pb0) as surrogate for molten corium, which showed that the reaction of the SM with molten Pb0 results in a fast solidification of the melt and the formation of open pore structures in the solidified Pb0 because of CO₂ released from the carbonate decomposition.

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The work for Step 1 performed at Sandia National Laboratories and reported in Section 7 has been updated to incorporate new data and to conduct new simulations using a new larger base case domain. The new simulations also include statistical analysis for different fracture realizations. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to the study of the effect of domain size. A much larger mesh was selected to minimize boundary effects. The DFN model was upscaled to the new base case domain and the much larger domain to generate relevant permeability and porosity fields for each case. The calculations updated for Step 2 are described in Section 12.1. New calculations have also been conducted to model the flooding of the CTD and the resulting pressure recovery. The modeling includes matching of pressure and chloride experimental data at the six observation locations in Well 12M133. The modeling was done for the 10 fracture realizations. The Step 2 recovery simulations are described in Section 12.2. The Step 2 work is summarized in Section 12.3.

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