Publications

This report summarizes important nuances in local water concerns and potential climate impacts that could influence the roll-out of technologies associated with energy transitions. To understand how water and climate dynamics could be influencing these activities for three countries.

The siting of nuclear waste is a process that requires consideration of concerns of the public. This report demonstrates the significant potential for natural language processing techniques to gain insights into public narratives around “nuclear waste.” Specifically, the report highlights that the general discourse regarding “nuclear waste” within the news media has fluctuated in prevalence compared to “nuclear” topics broadly over recent years, with commonly mentioned entities reflecting a limited variety of geographies and stakeholders. General sentiments within the “nuclear waste” articles appear to use neutral language, suggesting that a scientific or “facts-only” framing of “waste”-related issues dominates coverage; however, the exact nuances should be further evaluated. The implications of a number of these insights about how nuclear waste is framed in traditional media (e.g., regarding emerging technologies, historical events, and specific organizations) are discussed. This report lays the groundwork for larger, more systematic research using, for example, transformer-based techniques and covariance analysis to better understand relationships among “nuclear waste” and other nuclear topics, sentiments of specific entities, and patterns across space and time (including in a particular region). By identifying priorities and knowledge needs, these data-driven methods can complement and inform engagement strategies that promote dialogue and mutual learning regarding nuclear waste.

Final LDRD SAND Report for Project 226253

The purpose of pvOps is to support empirical evaluations of data collected in the field related to the operations and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. pvOps presently contains modules that address the diversity of field data, including text-based maintenance logs, current-voltage (IV) curves, and timeseries of production information. The package functions leverage machine learning, visualization, and other techniques to enable cleaning, processing, and fusion of these datasets. These capabilities are intended to facilitate easier evaluation of field patterns and extraction of relevant insights to support reliability-related decision-making for PV sites. The open-source code, examples, and instructions for installing the package through PyPI can be accessed through the GitHub repository.

A summary of causal loop diagram conceptual modeling performed under the Water Intersections with Climate Systems Security Strategic Initiative.

Global climate change has prompted many national plans for rapid emissions reductions. For example, the United States recently committed to transitioning to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050. Parallel to conversations surrounding emissions reductions is the call for energy justice, or the demand for more equitable distribution of energy-related burdens and benefits among communities. To date, energy justice has evolved as a mostly academic conversation, which may limit its utility to praxis. In response, we offer an interdisciplinary framework that aims to organize existing knowledge and lessons learned from energy development. Specifically, we developed the Meaningful Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) Development Framework and conducted a literature review using MRE as a case study. MRE was chosen because it is a nascent renewable energy technology in the US with projects mostly in demonstration stages and no commercial deployment, making it a useful case study to apply lessons learned from other energy sectors and other countries. Discussion of current resources being developed among the MRE community and their implications for furthering energy justice priorities are also explored. We conclude the review with a compiled list of questions meant to support stakeholders in translating theoretical concepts of Meaningful MRE Development to practice. Although the Meaningful MRE framework was developed using MRE as a use case, our interdisciplinary theoretical framework can be applied beyond MRE to other sustainable and renewable energy projects.

This paper explores the utility of organizational system modeling frameworks to provide valuable insight into information flows within organizations and subsequently the opportunities for increasing resilience against disinformation campaigns targeting the system's ability to utilize information within its decision making. Disinformation is a growing challenge for many organizations and in recent years has created delay in decision making. Here the paper has utilized the viable systems model (VSM) to characterize organizational systems and used this approach to outline potential subsystem requirements to promote resilience of the system. The results of this paper can support the development of simulations and models considering the human elements within the system as well as support the development of quantitative measures of resilience.

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Sustainable use of water resources continues to be a challenge across the globe. This is in part due to the complex set of physical and social behaviors that interact to influence water management from local to global scales. Analyses of water resources have been conducted using a variety of techniques, including qualitative evaluations of media narratives. This study aims to augment these methods by leveraging computational and quantitative techniques from the social sciences focused on text analyses. Specifically, we use natural language processing methods to investigate a large corpus (approx. 1.8M) of newspaper articles spanning approximately 35 years (1982–2017) for insights into human-nature interactions with water. Focusing on local and regional United States publications, our analysis demonstrates important dynamics in water-related dialogue about drinking water and pollution to other critical infrastructures, such as energy, across different parts of the country. Our assessment, which looks at water as a system, also highlights key actors and sentiments surrounding water. Extending these analytical methods could help us further improve our understanding of the complex roles of water in current society that should be considered in emerging activities to mitigate and respond to resource conflicts and climate change.

Risk and resilience assessments for critical infrastructure focus on myriad objectives, from natural hazard evaluations to optimizing investments. Although research has started to characterize externalities associated with current or possible future states, incorporation of equity priorities at project inception is increasingly being recognized as critical for planning related activities. However, there is no standard methodology that guides development of equity-informed quantitative approaches for infrastructure planning activities. To address this gap, we introduce a logic model that can be tailored to capture nuances about specific geographies and community priorities, effectively incorporating them into different mathematical approaches for quantitative risk assessments. Specifically, the logic model uses a graded, iterative approach to clarify specific equity objectives as well as inform the development of equations being used to support analysis. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using case studies spanning aviation fuel, produced water, and microgrid electricity infrastructures. For each case study, the use of the logic model helps clarify the ways that local priorities and infrastructure needs are used to drive the types of data and quantitative methodologies used in the respective analyses. The explicit consideration of methodological limitations (e.g., data mismatches) and stakeholder engagements serves to increase the transparency of the associated findings as well as effectively integrate community nuances (e.g., ownership of assets) into infrastructure assessments. Such integration will become increasingly important to ensure that planning activities (which occur throughout the lifecycle of the infrastructure projects) lead to long-lasting solutions to meet both energy and sustainable development goals for communities.

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Battery storage systems are increasingly being installed at photovoltaic (PV) sites to address supply-demand balancing needs. Although there is some understanding of costs associated with PV operations and maintenance (O&M), costs associated with emerging technologies such as PV plus storage lack details about the specific systems and/or activities that contribute to the cost values. This study aims to address this gap by exploring the specific factors and drivers contributing to utility-scale PV plus storage systems (UPVS) O&M activities costs, including how technology selection, data collection, and related and ongoing challenges. Specifically, we used semi-structured interviews and questionnaires to collect information and insights from utility-scale owners and operators. Data was collected from 14 semi-structured interviews and questionnaires representing 51.1 MW with 64.1 MWh of installed battery storage capacity within the United States (U.S.). Differences in degradation rate, expected life cycle, and capital costs are observed across different storage technologies. Most O&M activities at UPVS related to correcting under-performance. Fires and venting issues are leading safety concerns, and owner operators have installed additional systems to mitigate these issues. There are ongoing O&M challenges due the lack of storage-specific performance metrics as well as poor vendor reliability and parts availability. Insights from this work will improve our understanding of O&M consideration at PV plus storage sites.

The Grey Zone Test Range (GZTR) social model operates as a piece of the overall GZTR modeling effort. It works in conjunction with supply models for resources, an electric grid model for power availability, and a traffic model for road congestion, as well as a general controller framework that allows external system effects. The social model functions as an aggregate model where the entire population of the city is divided into groups based on the Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs), a common geospatial boundary present in all GZTR models. These groups will act as a singular community; each time step the state of the system around them will be assessed and then community will come up with a general plan of action that they will attempt to follow for the day. Additionally, they will track values for their general emotional state and memory about negative impacts in the near past.

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