We present a method of control variates for calculating improved estimates for mean performance quantities of interest, E(PQI) , computed from Monte Carlo probabilistic simulations. An example of a PQI is the concentration of a contaminant at a particular location in a problem domain computed from simulations of transport in porous media. To simplify the presentation, the method is described in the setting of a one- dimensional elliptical model problem involving a single uncertain parameter represented by a probability distribution. The approach can be easily implemented for more complex problems involving multiple uncertain parameters and in particular for application to probabilistic performance assessment of deep geologic nuclear waste repository systems. Numerical results indicate the method can produce estimates of E(PQI)having superior accuracy on coarser meshes and reduce the required number of simulations needed to achieve an acceptable estimate.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has embarked on the Deep Borehole Field Test (DBFT), which will investigate whether conditions suitable for disposal of radioactive waste can be found at a depth of up to 5 km in the earth’s crust. As planned, the DBFT will demonstrate drilling and construction of two boreholes, one for initial scientific characterization, and the other at a larger diameter such as could be appropriate for waste disposal (the DBFT will not involve radioactive waste). A wide range of geoscience activities is planned for the Characterization Borehole, and an engineering demonstration of test package emplacement and retrieval is planned for the larger Field Test Borehole. Characterization activities will focus on measurements and samples that are important for evaluating the long-term isolation capability of the Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) concept. Engineering demonstration activities will focus on providing data to evaluate the concept’s operational safety and practicality. Procurement of a scientifically acceptable DBFT site and a site management contractor is now underway. The concept of deep borehole disposal (DBD) for radioactive wastes is not new. It was considered by the National Academy of Science (NAS 1957) for liquid waste, studied in the 1980’s in the U.S. (Woodward–Clyde 1983), and has been evaluated by European waste disposal R&D programs in the past few decades (for example, Grundfelt and Crawford 2014; Grundfelt 2010). Deep injection of wastewater including hazardous wastes is ongoing in the U.S. and regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 2001). The DBFT is being conducted with a view to use the DBD concept for future disposal of smaller-quantity, DOE-managed wastes from nuclear weapons production (i.e., Cs/Sr capsules and granular solid wastes). However, the concept may also have broader applicability for nations that have a need to dispose of limited amounts of spent fuel from nuclear power reactors. For such nations the cost for disposing of volumetrically limited waste streams could be lower than mined geologic repositories.
Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) of high-level radioactive wastes has been considered an option for geological isolation for many years (Hess et al. 1957). Recent advances in drilling technology have decreased costs and increased reliability for large-diameter (i.e., ≥50 cm [19.7”]) boreholes to depths of several kilometers (Beswick 2008; Beswick et al. 2014). These advances have therefore also increased the feasibility of the DBD concept (Brady et al. 2009; Cornwall 2015), and the current field test, introduced herein, is a demonstration of the DBD concept and these advances.
Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Weck, Philippe F.; Hammond, Glenn E.; Kuhlman, Kristopher L.; Zheng, Liange; Rutqvist, Jonny; Kim, Kunhwi; Houseworth, James; Caporuscio, Florie A.; Cheshire, Michael; Palaich, Sarah; Norskog, Katherine E.; Zavarin, Mavrik; Wolery, Thomas J.; Jerden, James L.; Copple, Jacqueline M.; Cruse, Terry; Ebert, William L.
Deep geological disposal of nuclear waste in clay/shale/argillaceous rock formations has received much consideration given its desirable attributes such as isolation properties (low permeability), geochemically reduced conditions, slow diffusion, sorbtive mineralogy, and geologically widespread (Jové Colón et al., 2014). There is a wealth of gained scientific expertise on the behavior of clay/shale/ argillaceous rock given its focus in international nuclear waste repository programs that includes underground research laboratories (URLs) in Switzerland, France, Belgium, and Japan. Jové Colón et al. (2014) have described some of these investigative efforts in clay rock ranging from site characterization to research on the engineered barrier system (EBS). Evaluations of disposal options that include nuclear waste disposition in clay/shale/argillaceous rock have determined that this host media can accommodate a wide range of waste types. R&D work within the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) assessing thermal effects and fluid-mineral interactions for the disposition of heat-generating waste have so far demonstrated the feasibility for the EBS and clay host rock to withstand high thermal loads. This report represents the continuation of disposal R&D efforts on the advancement and refinement of coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC), hydrothermal experiments on clay interactions, used fuel degradation (source term), and thermodynamic modeling and database development. The development and implementation of a clay/shale/argillite reference case described in Jové Colón et al. (2014) for FY15 will be documented in another report (Mariner et al. 2015) – only a brief description will be given here. This clay reference case implementation is the result of integration efforts between the GDSA PA and disposal in argillite work packages. The assessment of sacrificial zones in the EBS is being addressed through experimental work along with 1D reactive-transport and reaction path modeling. The focus of these investigations into the nature of sacrificial zones is to evaluate the chemical effects of heterogeneous chemical reactions at EBS interfaces. The difference in barrier material types and the extent of chemical reactions within these interfacial domains generates changes in mineral abundances. These mineralogical alterations also result in volume changes that, although small, could affect the interface bulk porosity. As in previous deliverables, this report is structured according to various national laboratory contributions describing R&D activities applicable to clay/shale/argillite media.
This report presents efforts to develop the use of in situ naturally-occurring noble gas tracers to evaluate transport mechanisms and deformation in shale hydrocarbon reservoirs. Noble gases are promising as shale reservoir diagnostic tools due to their sensitivity of transport to: shale pore structure; phase partitioning between groundwater, liquid, and gaseous hydrocarbons; and deformation from hydraulic fracturing. Approximately 1.5-year time-series of wellhead fluid samples were collected from two hydraulically-fractured wells. The noble gas compositions and isotopes suggest a strong signature of atmospheric contribution to the noble gases that mix with deep, old reservoir fluids. Complex mixing and transport of fracturing fluid and reservoir fluids occurs during production. Real-time laboratory measurements were performed on triaxially-deforming shale samples to link deformation behavior, transport, and gas tracer signatures. Finally, we present improved methods for production forecasts that borrow statistical strength from production data of nearby wells to reduce uncertainty in the forecasts.
Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) of high-level radioactive wastes has been considered an option for geological isolation for many years (Hess et al. 1957). Recent advances in drilling technology have decreased costs and increased reliability for large-diameter (i.e., ≥50 cm [19.7”]) boreholes to depths of several kilometers (Beswick 2008). These advances have therefore also increased the feasibility of the DBD concept (Brady et al. 2009), and the current field test, introduced herein, is a demonstration of the DBD concept and these advances. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste (DOE 2013) specifically recommended developing a research and development plan for DBD as a key strategy objective. DOE’s Assessment of Disposal Options for DOE-Managed High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel (DOE 2014a) concludes “effective implementation of a strategy for management and disposal of all High-Level Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel” would include focused research on deep boreholes, especially to retain flexible options for disposal of physically smaller DOEmanaged solid radioactive waste forms. More information regarding the characteristics, quantities, and sizes of these physically smaller waste forms is in the Evaluation of Options for Permanent Geologic Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste (SNL 2014).
We presented a multiporosity extension of classical double and triple-porosity fractured rock flow models for slightly compressible fluids. The multiporosity model is an adaptation of the multirate solute transport model of Haggerty and Gorelick (1995) to viscous flow in fractured rock reservoirs. It is a generalization of both pseudo steady state and transient interporosity flow double-porosity models. The model includes a fracture continuum and an overlapping distribution of multiple rock matrix continua, whose fracture-matrix exchange coefficients are specified through a discrete probability mass function. Semianalytical cylindrically symmetric solutions to the multiporosity mathematical model are developed using the Laplace transform to illustrate its behavior. Furthermore, the multiporosity model presented here is conceptually simple, yet flexible enough to simulate common conceptualizations of double and triple-porosity flow. This combination of generality and simplicity makes the multiporosity model a good choice for flow modelling in low-permeability fractured rocks.