Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen-Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.
Bayesian inference with a simple Gaussian error model is used to efficiently compute prediction variances for energies, forces, and stresses in the linear SNAP interatomic potential. The prediction variance is shown to have a strong correlation with the absolute error over approximately 24 orders of magnitude. Using this prediction variance, an active learning algorithm is constructed to iteratively train a potential by selecting the structures with the most uncertain properties from a pool of candidate structures. The relative importance of the energy, force, and stress errors in the objective function is shown to have a strong impact upon the trajectory of their respective net error metrics when running the active learning algorithm. Batched training of different batch sizes is also tested against singular structure updates, and it is found that batches can be used to significantly reduce the number of retraining steps required with only minor impact on the active learning trajectory.
Computational singular perturbation (CSP) is a method to analyze dynamical systems. It targets the decoupling of fast and slow dynamics using an alternate linear expansion of the right-hand side of the governing equations based on eigenanalysis of the associated Jacobian matrix. This representation facilitates diagnostic analysis, detection and control of stiffness, and the development of simplified models. We have implemented CSP in a C++ open-source library CSPlib1 using the Kokkos2 parallel programming model to address portability across diverse heterogeneous computing platforms, i.e., multi/many-core CPUs and GPUs. We describe the CSPlib implementation and present its computational performance across different computing platforms using several test problems. Specifically, we test the CSPlib performance for a constant pressure ignition reactor model on different architectures, including IBM Power 9, Intel Xeon Skylake, and NVIDIA V100 GPU. The size of the chemical kinetic mechanism is varied in these tests. As expected, the Jacobian matrix evaluation, the eigensolution of the Jacobian matrix, and matrix inversion are the most expensive computational tasks. When considering the higher throughput characteristic of GPUs, GPUs performs better for small matrices with higher occupancy rate. CPUs gain more advantages from the higher performance of well-tuned and optimized linear algebra libraries such as OpenBLAS. Program summary: Program Title: CSPlib CPC Library link to program files: https://doi.org/10.17632/p9gb7z54sp.1 Developer's repository link: https://github.com/sandialabs/csplib Licensing provisions: BSD 2-clause Programming language: C++ Nature of problem: Dynamical systems can involve coupled processes with a wide range of time scales. The computational singular perturbation (CSP) method offers a reformulation of these systems which enables the use of dynamically-based diagnostic tools to better comprehend the dynamics by decoupling fast and slow processes. CSPlib is an open-source software library for analyzing general ordinary differential equation (ODE) and differential algebraic equation (DAE) systems, with specialized implementations for detailed chemical kinetic ODE/DAE systems. It relies on CSP for the analysis of these systems. CSPlib has been used in gas kinetic and heterogeneous catalytic kinetic models. Solution method: CSP analysis seeks a set of basis vectors to linearly decompose the right-hand side (RHS) of a dynamical system in a manner that decouples fast and slow processes. The CSP basis vectors are often well approximated with the right eigenvectors of the RHS Jacobian. And the left basis vectors are found by the inversion of the matrix, whose columns are the CSP basis vectors. Accordingly, the right and left CSP basis vectors are orthonormal. CSP defines mode amplitudes as the projections of the left basis vectors on the RHS; the time scales as the reciprocals of the RHS Jacobian eigenvalue magnitudes; and the CSP pointers, which are the element-wise multiplication of the transpose of the right CSP basis vectors with the left CSP basis vectors. For kinetic models that can be cast as the product of a generalized stoichiometric matrix and a rate of progress vector, CSP defines the participation index, which represents the contribution of a chemical reaction to each mode. Further, it defines the slow and fast importance indices, which describe the contribution of a chemical reaction to the slow and fast dynamics of a state variable, respectively. These indices are useful in diagnostic studies of dynamical systems and the construction of simplified models. Additional comments including restrictions and unusual features: CSPlib is a portable library that carries out many CSP analyses in parallel and can be used in modern high-performance platforms.
Characterizing and quantifying microstructure evolution is critical to forming quantitative relationships between material processing conditions, resulting microstructure, and observed properties. Machine-learning methods are increasingly accelerating the development of these relationships by treating microstructure evolution as a pattern recognition problem, discovering relationships explicitly or implicitly. These methods often rely on identifying low-dimensional microstructural fingerprints as latent variables. However, using inappropriate latent variables can lead to challenges in learning meaningful relationships. In this work, we survey and discuss the ability of various linear and nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods including principal component analysis, autoencoders, and diffusion maps to quantify and characterize the learned latent space microstructural representations and their time evolution. We characterize latent spaces by their ability to represent high-dimensional microstructural data in terms of compression achieved as a function of the number of latent dimensions required to represent the data accurately, their accuracy based on their reconstruction performance, and the smoothness of the microstructural trajectories in latent dimension. We quantify these metrics for common microstructure evolution problems in material science including spinodal decomposition of a binary metallic alloy, thin film deposition of a binary metallic alloy, dendritic growth, and grain growth in a polycrystal. This study provides considerations and guidelines for choosing dimensionality reduction methods when considering materials problems that involve high dimensional data and a variety of features over a range of lengths and time scales.
In this report we present our findings and outcomes of the NNRDS (analysis of Neural Networks as Random Dynamical Systems) project. The work is largely motivated by the analogy of a large class of neural networks (NNs) with a discretized ordinary differential equation (ODE) schemes. Namely, residual NNs, or ResNets, can be viewed as a discretization of neural ODEs (NODEs) where the NN depth plays the role of the time evolution. We employ several legacy tools from ODE theory, such as stiffness, nonlocality, autonomicity, to enable regularization of ResNets thus improving their generalization capabilities. Furthermore, armed with NN analysis tools borrowed from the ODE theory, we are able to efficiently augment NN predictions with uncertainty overcoming wellknown dimensionality challenges and adding a degree of trust towards NN predictions. Finally, we have developed a Python library QUiNN (Quantification of Uncertainties in Neural Networks) that incorporates improved-architecture ResNets, besides classical feed-forward NNs, and contains wrappers to PyTorch NN models enabling several major classes of uncertainty quantification methods for NNs. Besides synthetic problems, we demonstrate the methods on datasets from climate modeling and materials science.
This paper focuses on the development of multifidelity modeling approaches using neural network surrogates, where training data arising from multiple model forms and resolutions are integrated to predict high-fidelity response quantities of interest at lower cost. We focus on the context of quantum chemistry and the integration of information from multiple levels of theory. Important foundations include the use of symmetry function-based atomic energy vector constructions as feature vectors for representing structures across families of molecules and single-fidelity neural network training capabilities that learn the relationships needed to map feature vectors to potential energy predictions. These foundations are embedded within several multifidelity topologies that decompose the high-fidelity mapping into model-based components, including sequential formulations that admit a general nonlinear mapping across fidelities and discrepancy-based formulations that presume an additive decomposition. Methodologies are first explored and demonstrated on a pair of simple analytical test problems and then deployed for potential energy prediction for C5H5 using B2PLYP-D3/6-311++G(d,p) for high-fidelity simulation data and Hartree-Fock 6-31G for low-fidelity data. For the common case of limited access to high-fidelity data, our computational results demonstrate that multifidelity neural network potential energy surface constructions achieve roughly an order of magnitude improvement, either in terms of test error reduction for equivalent total simulation cost or reduction in total cost for equivalent error.
The automated kinetics workflow code, KinBot, was used to explore and characterize the regions of the C7H7 potential energy surface that are relevant to combustion environments and especially soot inception. We first explored the lowest-energy region, which includes the benzyl, fulvenallene + H, and cyclopentadienyl + acetylene entry points. We then expanded the model to include two higher-energy entry points, vinylpropargyl + acetylene and vinylacetylene + propargyl. The automated search was able to uncover the pathways from the literature. In addition, three important new routes were discovered: a lower-energy pathway connecting benzyl with vinylcyclopentadienyl, a decomposition mechanism from benzyl that results in side-chain hydrogen atom loss to produce fulvenallene + H, and shorter and lower energy routes to the dimethylene-cyclopentenyl intermediates. We systematically reduced the extended model to a chemically relevant domain composed of 63 wells, 10 bimolecular products, 87 barriers, and 1 barrierless channel and constructed a master equation using the CCSD(T)-F12a/cc-pVTZ//ωB97X-D/6-311++G(d,p) level of theory to provide rate coefficients for chemical modeling. Our calculated rate coefficients show excellent agreement with measured ones. We also simulated concentration profiles and calculated branching fractions from the important entry points to provide an interpretation of this important chemical landscape.
Automation of rate-coefficient calculations for gas-phase organic species became possible in recent years and has transformed how we explore these complicated systems computationally. Kinetics workflow tools bring rigor and speed and eliminate a large fraction of manual labor and related error sources. In this paper we give an overview of this quickly evolving field and illustrate, through five detailed examples, the capabilities of our own automated tool, KinBot. We bring examples from combustion and atmospheric chemistry of C-, H-, O-, and N-atom-containing species that are relevant to molecular weight growth and autoxidation processes. The examples shed light on the capabilities of automation and also highlight particular challenges associated with the various chemical systems that need to be addressed in future work.
Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) have recently regained popularity as large-depth limits of a large class of neural networks. In particular, residual neural networks (ResNets) are equivalent to an explicit Euler discretization of an underlying NODE, where the transition from one layer to the next is one time step of the discretization. The relationship between continuous and discrete neural networks has been of particular interest. Notably, analysis from the ordinary differential equation viewpoint can potentially lead to new insights for understanding the behavior of neural networks in general. In this work, we take inspiration from differential equations to define the concept of stiffness for a ResNet via the interpretation of a ResNet as the discretization of a NODE. Here, we then examine the effects of stiffness on the ability of a ResNet to generalize, via computational studies on example problems coming from climate and chemistry models. We find that penalizing stiffness does have a unique regularizing effect, but we see no benefit to penalizing stiffness over L2 regularization (penalization of network parameter norms) in terms of predictive performance.
Numerical algorithms for stiff stochastic differential equations are developed using linear approximations of the fast diffusion processes, under the assumption of decoupling between fast and slow processes. Three numerical schemes are proposed, all of which are based on the linearized formulation albeit with different degrees of approximation. The schemes are of comparable complexity to the classical explicit Euler-Maruyama scheme but can achieve better accuracy at larger time steps in stiff systems. Convergence analysis is conducted for one of the schemes, that shows it to have a strong convergence order of 1/2 and a weak convergence order of 1. Approximations arriving at the other two schemes are discussed. Numerical experiments are carried out to examine the convergence of the schemes proposed on model problems.
Nonlocal models provide a much-needed predictive capability for important Sandia mission applications, ranging from fracture mechanics for nuclear components to subsurface flow for nuclear waste disposal, where traditional partial differential equations (PDEs) models fail to capture effects due to long-range forces at the microscale and mesoscale. However, utilization of this capability is seriously compromised by the lack of a rigorous nonlocal interface theory, required for both application and efficient solution of nonlocal models. To unlock the full potential of nonlocal modeling we developed a mathematically rigorous and physically consistent interface theory and demonstrate its scope in mission-relevant exemplar problems.
This article illustrates the use of unsupervised probabilistic learning techniques for the analysis of planetary reentry trajectories. A three-degree-of-freedom model was employed to generate optimal trajectories that comprise the training datasets. The algorithm first extracts the intrinsic structure in the data via a diffusion map approach. We find that data resides on manifolds of much lower dimensionality compared to the high-dimensional state space that describes each trajectory. Using the diffusion coordinates on the graph of training samples, the probabilistic framework subsequently augments the original data with samples that are statistically consistent with the original set. The augmented samples are then used to construct conditional statistics that are ultimately assembled in a path planning algorithm. In this framework, the controls are determined stage by stage during the flight to adapt to changing mission objectives in real-Time.
A Bayesian inference strategy has been used to estimate uncertain inputs to global impurity transport code (GITR) modeling predictions of tungsten erosion and migration in the linear plasma device, PISCES-A. This allows quantification of GITR output uncertainty based on the uncertainties in measured PISCES-A plasma electron density and temperature profiles (n e, T e) used as inputs to GITR. The technique has been applied for comparison to dedicated experiments performed for high (4 × 1022 m-2 s-1) and low (5 × 1021 m-2 s-1) flux 250 eV He-plasma exposed tungsten (W) targets designed to assess the net and gross erosion of tungsten, and corresponding W impurity transport. The W target design and orientation, impurity collector, and diagnostics, have been designed to eliminate complexities associated with tokamak divertor plasma exposures (inclined target, mixed plasma species, re-erosion, etc) to benchmark results against the trace impurity transport model simulated by GITR. The simulated results of the erosion, migration, and re-deposition of W during the experiment from the GITR code coupled to materials response models are presented. Specifically, the modeled and experimental W I emission spectroscopy data for a 429.4 nm line and net erosion through the target and collector mass difference measurements are compared. The methodology provides predictions of observable quantities of interest with quantified uncertainty, allowing estimation of moments, together with the sensitivities to plasma temperature and density.
We have extended the computational singular perturbation (CSP) method to differential algebraic equation (DAE) systems and demonstrated its application in a heterogeneous-catalysis problem. The extended method obtains the CSP basis vectors for DAEs from a reduced Jacobian matrix that takes the algebraic constraints into account. We use a canonical problem in heterogeneous catalysis, the transient continuous stirred tank reactor (T-CSTR), for illustration. The T-CSTR problem is modelled fundamentally as an ordinary differential equation (ODE) system, but it can be transformed to a DAE system if one approximates typically fast surface processes using algebraic constraints for the surface species. We demonstrate the application of CSP analysis for both ODE and DAE constructions of a T-CSTR problem, illustrating the dynamical response of the system in each case. We also highlight the utility of the analysis in commenting on the quality of any particular DAE approximation built using the quasi-steady state approximation (QSSA), relative to the ODE reference case.
The TChem open-source software is a toolkit for computing thermodynamic properties, source term, and source term’s Jacobian matrix for chemical kinetic models that involve gas and surface reactions.
CSPlib is an open source software library for analyzing general ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems and detailed chemical kinetic ODE/DAE systems. It relies on the computational singular perturbation (CSP) method for the analysis of these systems.
We present a new geodesic-based method for geometry optimization in a basis set of redundant internal coordinates. Our method updates the molecular geometry by following the geodesic generated by a displacement vector on the internal coordinate manifold, which dramatically reduces the number of steps required to converge to a minimum. Our method can be implemented in any existing optimization code, requiring only implementation of derivatives of the Wilson B-matrix and the ability to numerically solve an ordinary differential equation.
This report investigates the use of unsupervised probabilistic learning techniques for the analysis of hypersonic trajectories. The algorithm first extracts the intrinsic structure in the data via a diffusion map approach. Using the diffusion coordinates on the graph of training samples, the probabilistic framework augments the original data with samples that are statistically consistent with the original set. The augmented samples are then used to construct conditional statistics that are ultimately assembled in a path-planing algorithm. In this framework the controls are determined stage by stage during the flight to adapt to changing mission objectives in real-time. A 3DOF model was employed to generate optimal hypersonic trajectories that comprise the training datasets. The diffusion map algorithm identfied that data resides on manifolds of much lower dimensionality compared to the high-dimensional state space that describes each trajectory. In addition to the path-planing worflow we also propose an algorithm that utilizes the diffusion map coordinates along the manifold to label and possibly remove outlier samples from the training data. This algorithm can be used to both identify edge cases for further analysis as well as to remove them from the training set to create a more robust set of samples to be used for the path-planing process.
This report outlines the mathematical formulation for the atomic environment vector (AEV) construction used in the aevmod software package. The AEV provides a summary of the geometry of a molecule or atomic configuration. We also present the formulation for the analytical Jacobian of the AEV with respect to the atomic Cartesian coordinates. The software provides functionality for both the AEV and AEV-Jacobian, as well as the AEV-Hessian which is available via reliance on the third party library Sacado.
There currently exist two methods for analysing an explosive mode introduced by chemical kinetics in a reacting process: the Computational Singular Perturbation (CSP) algorithm and the Chemical Explosive Mode Analysis (CEMA). CSP was introduced in 1989 and addressed both dissipative and explosive modes encountered in the multi-scale dynamics that characterize the process, while CEMA was introduced in 2009 and addressed only the explosive modes. It is shown that (i) the algorithmic tools incorporated in CEMA were developed previously on the basis of CSP and (ii) the examination of explosive modes has been the subject of CSP-based works, reported before the introduction of CEMA.
CSPlib is an open source software library for analyzing general ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems and detailed chemical kinetic ODE systems. It relies on the computational singular perturbation (CSP) method for the analysis of these systems. The software provides support for: General ODE models (gODE model class) for computing source terms and Jacobians for a generic ODE system; TChem model (ChemElemODETChem model class) for computing source term, Jacobian, other necessary chemical reaction data, as well as the rates of progress for a homogenous batch reactor using an elementary step detailed chemical kinetic reaction mechanism. This class relies on the TChem [2] library; A set of functions to compute essential elements of CSP analysis (Kernel class). This includes computations of the eigensolution of the Jacobian matrix, CSP basis vectors and co-vectors, time scales (reciprocals of the magnitudes of the Jacobian eigenvalues), mode amplitudes, CSP pointers, and the number of exhausted modes. This class relies on the Tines library; A set of functions to compute the eigensolution of the Jacobian matrix using Tines library GPU eigensolver; A set of functions to compute CSP indices (Index Class). This includes participation indices and both slow and fast importance indices.
TChem is an open source software library for solving complex computational chemistry problems and analyzing detailed chemical kinetic models. The software provides support for: complex kinetic models for gas-phase and surface chemistry; thermodynamic properties based on NASA polynomials; species production/consumption rates; stable time integrator for solving stiff time ordinary differential equations; and, reactor models such as homogenous gas-phase ignition (with analytical Jacobian matrices), continuously stirred tank reactor, plug-flow reactor. This toolkit builds upon earlier versions that were written in C and featured tools for gas-phase chemistry only. The current version of the software was completely refactored in C++, uses an object-oriented programming model, and adopts Kokkos as its portability layer to make it ready for the next generation computing architectures i.e., multi/many core computing platforms with GPU accelerators. We have expanded the range of kinetic models to include surface chemistry and have added examples pertaining to Continuously Stirred Tank Reactors (CSTR) and Plug Flow Reactor (PFR) models to complement the homogenous ignition examples present in the earlier versions. To exploit the massive parallelism available from modern computing platforms, the current software interface is designed to evaluate samples in parallel, which enables large scale parametric studies, e.g. for sensitivity analysis and model calibration.
Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) is a variant of a class of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms known as tempering-based methods. In this report, the implementation of TMCMC in the Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit is investigated through the sampling of high-dimensional distributions, multi-modal distributions, and nonlinear manifolds. Furthermore, the Bayesian model evidence estimates obtained from TMCMC are tested on problems with known analytical solutions and shown to provide consistent results.
We demonstrate, on a scramjet combustion problem, a constrained probabilistic learning approach that augments physics-based datasets with realizations that adhere to underlying constraints and scatter. The constraints are captured and delineated through diffusion maps, while the scatter is captured and sampled through a projected stochastic differential equation. The objective function and constraints of the optimization problem are then efficiently framed as non-parametric conditional expectations. Different spatial resolutions of a large-eddy simulation filter are used to explore the robustness of the model to the training dataset and to gain insight into the significance of spatial resolution on optimal design.
Fundamental results and an efficient algorithm for constructing eigenvectors corresponding to non-zero eigenvalues of matrices with zero rows and/or columns are developed. The formulation is based on the relation between eigenvectors of such matrices and the eigenvectors of their submatrices after removing all zero rows and columns. While being easily implemented, the algorithm decreases the computation time needed for numerical eigenanalysis, and resolves potential numerical eigensolver instabilities.
We propose a method that exploits sparse representation of potential energy surfaces (PES) on a polynomial basis set selected by compressed sensing. The method is useful for studies involving large numbers of PES evaluations, such as the search for local minima, transition states, or integration. We apply this method for estimating zero point energies and frequencies of molecules using a three step approach. In the first step, we interpret the PES as a sparse tensor on polynomial basis and determine its entries by a compressed sensing based algorithm using only a few PES evaluations. Then, we implement a rank reduction strategy to compress this tensor in a suitable low-rank canonical tensor format using standard tensor compression tools. This allows representing a high dimensional PES as a small sum of products of one dimensional functions. Finally, a low dimensional Gauss–Hermite quadrature rule is used to integrate the product of sparse canonical low-rank representation of PES and Green’s function in the second-order diagrammatic vibrational many-body Green’s function theory (XVH2) for estimation of zero-point energies and frequencies. Numerical tests on molecules considered in this work suggest a more efficient scaling of computational cost with molecular size as compared to other methods.
In a recent paper, the authors proposed a general methodology for probabilistic learning on manifolds. The method was used to generate numerical samples that are statistically consistent with an existing dataset construed as a realization from a non-Gaussian random vector. The manifold structure is learned using diffusion manifolds and the statistical sample generation is accomplished using a projected Itô stochastic differential equation. This probabilistic learning approach has been extended to polynomial chaos representation of databases on manifolds and to probabilistic nonconvex constrained optimization with a fixed budget of function evaluations. The methodology introduces an isotropic-diffusion kernel with hyperparameter ε. Currently, ε is more or less arbitrarily chosen. In this paper, we propose a selection criterion for identifying an optimal value of ε, based on a maximum entropy argument. The result is a comprehensive, closed, probabilistic model for characterizing data sets with hidden constraints. This entropy argument ensures that out of all possible models, this is the one that is the most uncertain beyond any specified constraints, which is selected. Applications are presented for several databases.
A stable explicit time-scale splitting algorithm for stiff chemical Langevin equations (CLEs) is developed, based on the concept of computational singular perturbation. The drift term of the CLE is projected onto basis vectors that span the fast and slow subdomains. The corresponding fast modes exhaust quickly, in the mean sense, and the system state then evolves, with a mean drift controlled by slow modes, on a random manifold. The drift-driven time evolution of the state due to fast exhausted modes is modeled algebraically as an exponential decay process, while that due to slow drift modes and diffusional processes is integrated explicitly. This allows time integration step sizes much larger than those required by typical explicit numerical methods for stiff stochastic differential equations. The algorithm is motivated and discussed, and extensive numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate its accuracy and stability with a number of model systems.
We describe the load flow formulation and the solution algorithms available in the Electric power Grid Simulator (EGSim) software toolkit. EGSim contains tools aimed at simulating static load flow solutions for electric power grids. It parses power grid models described in IEEE Common Data Format, and generates solutions for the bus voltages and voltage angles, and real and reactive power values through the transmission lines. The software, written in C++, implements both Gauss-Seidel and Newton solution methods. Example results for the 118 bus models and 300 bus models are also presented.
Basis adaptation in Homogeneous Chaos spaces rely on a suitable rotation of the underlying Gaussian germ. Several rotations have been proposed in the literature resulting in adaptations with different convergence properties. In this paper we present a new adaptation mechanism that builds on compressive sensing algorithms, resulting in a reduced polynomial chaos approximation with optimal sparsity. The developed adaptation algorithm consists of a two-step optimization procedure that computes the optimal coefficients and the input projection matrix of a low dimensional chaos expansion with respect to an optimally rotated basis. We demonstrate the attractive features of our algorithm through several numerical examples including the application on Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) calculations of turbulent combustion in a HIFiRE scramjet engine.
Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy, is often the largest contributor to the overall predictive uncertainty. This work builds on a recently developed framework of embedded, internal model correction, in order to represent and quantify structural errors, together with model parameters,within a Bayesian inference context. We focus specifically on a Polynomial Chaos representation with additive modification of existing model parameters, enabling a non-intrusive procedure for efficient approximate likelihood construction, model error estimation, and disambiguation of model and data errors’ contributions to predictive uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on several synthetic examples, as well as on a chemical ignition problem.
A procedure for determining the joint uncertainty of Arrhenius parameters across multiple combustion reactions of interest is demonstrated. This approach is capable of constructing the joint distribution of the Arrhenius parameters arising from the uncertain measurements performed in specific target experiments without having direct access to the underlying experimental data. The method involves constructing an ensemble of hypothetical data sets with summary statistics consistent with the available information reported by the experimentalists, followed by a fitting procedure that learns the structure of the joint parameter density across reactions using this consistent hypothetical data as evidence. The procedure is formalized in a Bayesian statistical framework, employing maximum-entropy and approximate Bayesian computation methods and utilizing efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to explore data and parameter spaces in a nested algorithm. We demonstrate the application of the method in the context of experiments designed to measure the rates of selected chain reactions in the H2-O2 system and highlight the utility of this approach for revealing the critical correlations between the parameters within a single reaction and across reactions, as well as for maximizing consistency when utilizing rate parameter information in predictive combustion modeling of systems of interest.
The development of scramjet engines is crucial for attaining efficient and stable propulsion under hypersonic flight conditions. Design for well-performing scramjet engines requires accurate flow simulations in conjunction with uncertainty quantification (UQ). We advance computational methods in bringing together UQ and large-eddy simulations for scramjet computations, with a focus on the HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig combustor. In particular, we perform uncertainty propagation for spatially dependent field quantities of interest (QoIs) by treating them as random fields, and numerically compute low-dimensional Karhunen-Loève expansions (KLEs) using a finite number of simulations on non-uniform grids. We also describe a formulation and procedure to extract conditional KLEs that characterize the stochasticity induced by uncertain parameters at given designs. This is achieved by first building a single KLE for each QoI via samples drawn jointly from the parameter and design spaces, and then leverage polynomial chaos expansions to insert input dependencies into the KLE. The ability to access conditional KLEs will be immensely useful for subsequent efforts in design optimization under uncertainty as well as model calibration with field variable measurements.
Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy, is often the largest contributor to the overall predictive uncertainty. This work builds on a recently developed frame- work of embedded, internal model correction, in order to represent and quantify structural errors, together with model parameters, within a Bayesian inference context.We focus specifically on a polynomial chaos representation with addi- tive modification of existing model parameters, enabling a nonintrusive procedure for efficient approximate likelihood construction, model error estimation, and disambiguation of model and data errors’ contributions to predictive uncer- tainty. The framework is demonstrated on several synthetic examples, as well as on a chemical ignition problem.
The computational burden of a large-eddy simulation for reactive flows is exacerbated in the presence of uncertainty in flow conditions or kinetic variables. A comprehensive statistical analysis, with a sufficiently large number of samples, remains elusive. Statistical learning is an approach that allows for extracting more information using fewer samples. Such procedures, if successful, will greatly enhance the predictability of models in the sense of improving exploration and characterization of uncertainty due to model error and input dependencies, all while being constrained by the size of the associated statistical samples. In this paper, it is shown how a recently developed procedure for probabilistic learning on manifolds can serve to improve the predictability in a probabilistic framework of a scramjet simulation. The estimates of the probability density functions of the quantities of interest are improved together with estimates of the statistics of their maxima. It is also demonstrated how the improved statistical model adds critical insight to the performance of the model.
In this work, we provide a method for enhancing stochastic Galerkin moment calculations to the linear elliptic equation with random diffusivity using an ensemble of Monte Carlo solutions. This hybrid approach combines the accuracy of low-order stochastic Galerkin and the computational efficiency of Monte Carlo methods to provide statistical moment estimates which are significantly more accurate than performing each method individually. The hybrid approach involves computing a low-order stochastic Galerkin solution, after which Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the residual. We show that the combined stochastic Galerkin solution and residual is superior in both time and accuracy for a one-dimensional test problem and a more computational intensive two-dimensional linear elliptic problem for both the mean and variance quantities.