Publications

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Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO32−, O2, Fe2+, and H2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.

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This project created and demonstrated a framework for the efficient and accurate prediction of complex systems with only a limited amount of highly trusted data. These next generation computational multi-fidelity tools fuse multiple information sources of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational and experimental resources needed for designing and assessing complex multi-physics/scale/component systems. These tools have already been used to substantially improve the computational efficiency of simulation aided modeling activities from assessing thermal battery performance to predicting material deformation. This report summarizes the work carried out during a two year LDRD project. Specifically we present our technical accomplishments; project outputs such as publications, presentations and professional leadership activities; and the project’s legacy.

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In this work we use the peridynamics theory of solid mechanics to simulate fracture in an annular rock domain subject to an in-situ stress and create surrogate models that predict the area of the resulting cracks. Peridynamics is a non-local formulation of continuum mechanics that naturally accommodates material discontinuities. Furthermore, unlike other fracture modeling techniques there is no need to provide information about the crack path. We utilize the peridynamics code Peridigm and take a two-stage approach to fracture modeling. First an implicit solve is performed to compute the in-situ stress state. We then execute an explicit solve where a pressure loading designed to emulate fluid-driven hydraulic fracture is applied at the borehole and transmitted to the pre-stressed rock. We present results from polynomial and single and multi-level Gaussian process surrogate models constructed from a sampling study of the peridynamics model. The surrogates predict crack area given a measure of the in-situ stress anisotropy and rise time and amplitude of the pressure loading. These surrogates take a minuscule fraction of peridynamics model's running time to evaluate and are a step towards enabling advanced optimization and uncertainty quantification workflows that require many model evaluations.

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