In the summer of 2020, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to launch a spacecraft as part of the Mars 2020 mission. The rover on the proposed spacecraft will use a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) to provide continuous electrical and thermal power for the mission. The MMRTG uses radioactive plutonium dioxide. NASA is preparing a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) for the mission in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act. This Nuclear Risk Assessment addresses the responses of the MMRTG option to potential accident and abort conditions during the launch opportunity for the Mars 2020 mission and the associated consequences. This information provides the technical basis for the radiological risks discussed in the SEIS.
This document outlines the approach used for interpolation of a dataset provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) which contains failure predictions of the Mars 2020 entry vehicle (EV). JPL used Navier-Stokes simulations to predict the failure altitude of the EV, along with a corresponding velocity and flight path angle at failure. These simulations were executed for several initial trajectory points in the entry envelope (the V-Gamma map).
We propose a probabilistic framework for assessing the consistency of an experimental dataset, i.e., whether the stated experimental conditions are consistent with the measurements provided. In case the dataset is inconsistent, our framework allows one to hypothesize and test sources of inconsistencies. This is crucial in model validation efforts. The framework relies on statistical inference to estimate experimental settings deemed untrustworthy, from measurements deemed accurate. The quality of the inferred variables is gauged by its ability to reproduce held-out experimental measurements; if the new predictions are closer to measurements than before, the cause of the discrepancy is deemed to have been found. The framework brings together recent advances in the use of Bayesian inference and statistical emulators in fluid dynamics with similarity measures for random variables to construct the hypothesis testing approach. We test the framework on two double-cone experiments executed in the LENS-XX wind tunnel and one in the LENS-I tunnel; all three have encountered difficulties when used in model validation exercises. However, the cause behind the difficulties with the LENS-I experiment is known, and our inferential framework recovers it. We also detect an inconsistency with one of the LENS-XX experiments, and hypothesize three causes for it. We check two of the hypotheses using our framework, and we find evidence that rejects them. We end by proposing that uncertainty quantification methods be used more widely to understand experiments and characterize facilities, and we cite three different methods to do so, the third of which we present in this paper.
This is the second of three related conference papers focused on verifying and validating a CFD model for laminar hypersonic flows. The first paper deals with the code verification and solution verification activities. In this paper, we investigate whether the model can accurately simulate laminar, hypersonic experiments of flows over double-cones, conducted in CUBRC’s LENS-I and LENS-XX wind-tunnels. The approach is to use uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, along with a careful examination of experimental uncertainties, to perform validation assessments. The validation assessments use metrics that probabilistically incorporate both parametric (i.e. freestream input) uncertainty and experimental uncertainty. Further validation assessments compare these uncertainties to iterative and convergence uncertainties described in the first paper in our series of related papers. As other researchers have found, the LENS-XX simulations under-predict experimental heat flux measurements in the laminar, attached region of the fore-cone. This is observed for a deterministic simulation, as well as a probabilistic approach to creating an ensemble of simulations derived from CUBRC-provided estimates of uncertainty for freestream conditions. This paper will conclude with possible reasons that simulations cannot bracket experimental observations, and motivate the third paper in our series, which will further examine these possible explanations. The results in this study emphasize the importance of careful measurement of experimental conditions and uncertainty quantification of validation experiments. This study, along with its sister papers, also demonstrates a process of verification, uncertainty quantification, and quantitative validation activities for building and assessing credibility of computational simulations.
High performance computing (HPC) is undergoing a dramatic change in computing architectures. Nextgeneration HPC systems are being based primarily on many-core processing units and general purpose graphics processing units (GPUs). A computing node on a next-generation system can be, and in practice is, heterogeneous in nature, involving multiple memory spaces and multiple execution spaces. This presents a challenge for the development of application codes that wish to compute at the extreme scales afforded by these next-generation HPC technologies and systems - the best parallel programming model for one system is not necessarily the best parallel programming model for another. This inevitably raises the following question: how does an application code achieve high performance on disparate computing architectures without having entirely different, or at least significantly different, code paths, one for each architecture? This question has given rise to the term ‘performance portability’, a notion concerned with porting application code performance from architecture to architecture using a single code base. In this paper, we present the work being done at Sandia National Labs to develop a performance portable compressible CFD code that is targeting the ‘leadership’ class supercomputers the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is acquiring over the course of the next decade.
High performance computing (HPC) is undergoing a dramatic change in computing architectures. Nextgeneration HPC systems are being based primarily on many-core processing units and general purpose graphics processing units (GPUs). A computing node on a next-generation system can be, and in practice is, heterogeneous in nature, involving multiple memory spaces and multiple execution spaces. This presents a challenge for the development of application codes that wish to compute at the extreme scales afforded by these next-generation HPC technologies and systems - the best parallel programming model for one system is not necessarily the best parallel programming model for another. This inevitably raises the following question: how does an application code achieve high performance on disparate computing architectures without having entirely different, or at least significantly different, code paths, one for each architecture? This question has given rise to the term ‘performance portability’, a notion concerned with porting application code performance from architecture to architecture using a single code base. In this paper, we present the work being done at Sandia National Labs to develop a performance portable compressible CFD code that is targeting the ‘leadership’ class supercomputers the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is acquiring over the course of the next decade.