Publications

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This is the second of three related conference papers focused on verifying and validating a CFD model for laminar hypersonic flows. The first paper deals with the code verification and solution verification activities. In this paper, we investigate whether the model can accurately simulate laminar, hypersonic experiments of flows over double-cones, conducted in CUBRC’s LENS-I and LENS-XX wind-tunnels. The approach is to use uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, along with a careful examination of experimental uncertainties, to perform validation assessments. The validation assessments use metrics that probabilistically incorporate both parametric (i.e. freestream input) uncertainty and experimental uncertainty. Further validation assessments compare these uncertainties to iterative and convergence uncertainties described in the first paper in our series of related papers. As other researchers have found, the LENS-XX simulations under-predict experimental heat flux measurements in the laminar, attached region of the fore-cone. This is observed for a deterministic simulation, as well as a probabilistic approach to creating an ensemble of simulations derived from CUBRC-provided estimates of uncertainty for freestream conditions. This paper will conclude with possible reasons that simulations cannot bracket experimental observations, and motivate the third paper in our series, which will further examine these possible explanations. The results in this study emphasize the importance of careful measurement of experimental conditions and uncertainty quantification of validation experiments. This study, along with its sister papers, also demonstrates a process of verification, uncertainty quantification, and quantitative validation activities for building and assessing credibility of computational simulations.

Compressible jet-in-crossflow interactions are difficult to simulate accurately using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. This could be due to simplifications inherent in RANS or the use of inappropriate RANS constants estimated by fitting to experiments of simple or canonical flows. Our previous work on Bayesian calibration of a k - ϵ model to experimental data had led to a weak hypothesis that inaccurate simulations could be due to inappropriate constants more than model-form inadequacies of RANS. In this work, Bayesian calibration of k - ϵ constants to a set of experiments that span a range of Mach numbers and jet strengths has been performed. The variation of the calibrated constants has been checked to assess the degree to which parametric estimates compensate for RANS's model-form errors. An analytical model of jet-in-crossflow interactions has also been developed, and estimates of k - ϵ constants that are free of any conflation of parametric and RANS's model-form uncertainties have been obtained. It has been found that the analytical k - ϵ constants provide mean-flow predictions that are similar to those provided by the calibrated constants. Further, both of them provide predictions that are far closer to experimental measurements than those computed using "nominal" values of these constants simply obtained from the literature. It can be concluded that the lack of predictive skill of RANS jet-in-crossflow simulations is mostly due to parametric inadequacies, and our analytical estimates may provide a simple way of obtaining predictive compressible jet-in-crossflow simulations.

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This study developed and tested biologically inspired computational methods to detect anomalous signals in data streams that could indicate a pending outbreak or bio-weapon attack. Current large-scale biosurveillance systems are plagued by two principal deficiencies: (1) timely detection of disease-indicating signals in noisy data and (2) anomaly detection across multiple channels. Anomaly detectors and data fusion components modeled after human immune system processes were tested against a variety of natural and synthetic surveillance datasets. A pilot scale immune-system-based biosurveillance system performed at least as well as traditional statistical anomaly detection data fusion approaches. Machine learning approaches leveraging Deep Learning recurrent neural networks were developed and applied to challenging unstructured and multimodal health surveillance data. Within the limits imposed of data availability, both immune systems and deep learning methods were found to improve anomaly detection and data fusion performance for particularly challenging data subsets.

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In this study, we focus on a hydrogeological inverse problem specifically targeting monitoring soil moisture variations using tomographic ground penetrating radar (GPR) travel time data. Technical challenges exist in the inversion of GPR tomographic data for handling non-uniqueness, nonlinearity and high-dimensionality of unknowns. We have developed a new method for estimating soil moisture fields from crosshole GPR data. It uses a pilot-point method to provide a low-dimensional representation of the relative dielectric permittivity field of the soil, which is the primary object of inference: the field can be converted to soil moisture using a petrophysical model. We integrate a multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)–Bayesian inversion framework with the pilot point concept, a curved-ray GPR travel time model, and a sequential Gaussian simulation algorithm, for estimating the dielectric permittivity at pilot point locations distributed within the tomogram, as well as the corresponding geostatistical parameters (i.e., spatial correlation range). We infer the dielectric permittivity as a probability density function, thus capturing the uncertainty in the inference. The multi-chain MCMC enables addressing high-dimensional inverse problems as required in the inversion setup. The method is scalable in terms of number of chains and processors, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. The proposed inversion approach can successfully approximate the posterior density distributions of the pilot points, and capture the true values. The computational efficiency, accuracy, and convergence behaviors of the inversion approach were also systematically evaluated, by comparing the inversion results obtained with different levels of noises in the observations, increased observational data, as well as increased number of pilot points.

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This report pulls together the documentation produced for the IMPACT tool, a software-based decision support tool that provides situational awareness, incident characterization, and guidance on public health and environmental response strategies for an unfolding bio-terrorism incident.

We demonstrate a statistical procedure for learning a high-order eddy viscosity model (EVM) from experimental data and using it to improve the predictive skill of a Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulator. The method is tested in a three-dimensional (3D), transonic jet-in-crossflow (JIC) configuration. The process starts with a cubic eddy viscosity model (CEVM) developed for incompressible flows. It is fitted to limited experimental JIC data using shrinkage regression. The shrinkage process removes all the terms from the model, except an intercept, a linear term, and a quadratic one involving the square of the vorticity. The shrunk eddy viscosity model is implemented in an RANS simulator and calibrated, using vorticity measurements, to infer three parameters. The calibration is Bayesian and is solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A 3D probability density distribution for the inferred parameters is constructed, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimate. The phenomenal cost of using a 3D flow simulator inside an MCMC loop is mitigated by using surrogate models ("curve-fits"). A support vector machine classifier (SVMC) is used to impose our prior belief regarding parameter values, specifically to exclude nonphysical parameter combinations. The calibrated model is compared, in terms of its predictive skill, to simulations using uncalibrated linear and CEVMs. We find that the calibrated model, with one quadratic term, is more accurate than the uncalibrated simulator. The model is also checked at a flow condition at which the model was not calibrated.

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In this study we developed an efficient Bayesian inversion framework for interpreting marine seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data for marine reservoir characterization. The framework uses a multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampler, which is a hybrid of DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis and Adaptive Metropolis samplers. The inversion framework is tested by estimating reservoir-fluid saturations and porosity based on marine seismic and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic data. The multi-chain Markov-chain Monte Carlo is scalable in terms of the number of chains, and is useful for computationally demanding Bayesian model calibration in scientific and engineering problems. As a demonstration, the approach is used to efficiently and accurately estimate the porosity and saturations in a representative layered synthetic reservoir. The results indicate that the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle and Controlled-Source Electromagnetic joint inversion provides better estimation of reservoir saturations than the seismic Amplitude Versus Angle only inversion, especially for the parameters in deep layers. The performance of the inversion approach for various levels of noise in observational data was evaluated — reasonable estimates can be obtained with noise levels up to 25%. Sampling efficiency due to the use of multiple chains was also checked and was found to have almost linear scalability.

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