Publications

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Utilizing historical utility outage data, an approach is presented to optimize investments which maximize reliability, i.e., minimize System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) and System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) metrics. This method is designed for distribution system operators (DSOs) to improve reliability through small investments. This approach is not appropriate for large system planning and investments (e.g. new transmission lines or generation) since further economic and stability concerns are required for this type of analysis. The first step in the reliability investment optimization is to create synthetic outage data sets for a future year based on probability density functions of historical utility outage data. Once several (likely hundreds of) future year outage scenarios are created, an optimization model is used to minimize the synthetic outage SAIDI and SAIFI norm (other metrics could also be used). The results from this method can be used for reliability system planning purposes and can inform DSOs which investments to pursue to improve their reliability metrics.

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We present novel stochastic optimization models to improve power systems resilience to extreme weather events. We consider proactive redispatch, transmission line hardening, and transmission line capacity increases as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather. Our model is based on linearized or "DC" optimal power flow, similar to models in widespread use by independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission operators (RTOs). Our computational experiments indicate that proactive redispatch alone can reduce the expected load shed by as much as 25% relative to standard economic dispatch. This resiliency enhancement strategy requires no capital investments and is implementable by ISOs and RTOs solely through operational adjustments. We additionally demonstrate that transmission line hardening and increases in transmission capacity can, in limited quantities, be effective strategies to further enhance power grid resiliency, although at significant capital investment cost. We perform a cross validation analysis to demonstrate the robustness of proposed recommendations. Our proposed model can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or combination of such strategies.

Power system utilities continue to strive for increased system resiliency. However, quantifying a baseline system resilience, and deciding the optimal investments to improve their resilience is challenging. This paper discusses a method to create scenarios, based on historical data, that represent the threats of severe weather events, their probability of occurrence, and the system wide consequences they generate. This paper also presents a mixed-integer stochastic nonlinear optimization model which uses the scenarios as an input to determine the optimal investments to reduce the system impacts from those scenarios. The optimization model utilizes a DC power flow to determine the loss of load during an event. Loss of load is the consequence that is minimized in this optimization model as the objective function. The results shown in this paper are from the IEEE RTS-96 three area reliability model. The scenario generation and optimization model have also been utilized on full utility models, but those results cannot be published.

Power system utilities continue to strive for increased system resiliency. However, quantifying a baseline system resilience, and deciding the optimal investments to improve their resilience is challenging. This paper discusses a method to create scenarios, based on historical data, that represent the threats of severe weather events, their probability of occurrence, and the system wide consequences they generate. This paper also presents a mixed-integer stochastic nonlinear optimization model which uses the scenarios as an input to determine the optimal investments to reduce the system impacts from those scenarios. The optimization model utilizes a DC power flow to determine the loss of load during an event. Loss of load is the consequence that is minimized in this optimization model as the objective function. The results shown in this paper are from the IEEE RTS-96 three area reliability model. The scenario generation and optimization model have also been utilized on full utility models, but those results cannot be published.

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Here, this paper focuses on scheduling antennas to track satellites using a novel heuristic method. The objectives pursued in developing a schedule are two-fold: (1) minimize the priority weighted number of time periods that satellites are not tracked; and (2) equalize the percent of time each satellite is uncovered. The heuristic method is a population-based local search tailored to the unique characteristics of this problem. In order to validate the performance of the heuristic, bounds are developed using Lagrangian relaxation. The heuristic method and the bounds are applied to several test problems. In all cases, the heuristic identifies a solution that is better than the upper bound and is generally quite close (but obviously larger) than the lower bound with about an order of magnitude reduction in computation time. Lastly, a comparison with CPLEX 12.7 is provided.

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This simple Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) use case will provide you an example of performing microgrid sizing by identifying the types and quantities of technology to be purchased for use in a microgrid. It will introduce basic principles of using the MDT microgrid sizing capability by comparing the results of two microgrids in two different markets. Please reference the MDT User Guide (SAND2017-9374) for detailed instructions on how to use the tool.

This document provides implementation guidance for implementing personnel group FTE costs by JCA Tier 1 or 2 categories in the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool – Engineering Prototype (CCOT-P). CCOT-P currently only allows FTE costs by personnel group to differ by mission. Changes will need to be made to the user interface inputs pages and the database

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This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough to support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.

The Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) is a decision support software tool for microgrid designers to use during the microgrid design process. The models that support the two main capabilities in MDT are described. The first capability, the Microgrid Sizing Capability (MSC), is used to determine the size and composition of a new microgrid in the early stages of the design process. MSC is a mixed-integer linear program that is focused on developing a microgrid that is economically viable when connected to the grid. The second capability is focused on refining a microgrid design for operation in islanded mode. This second capability relies on two models: the Technology Management Optimization (TMO) model and Performance Reliability Model (PRM). TMO uses a genetic algorithm to create and refine a collection of candidate microgrid designs. It uses PRM, a simulation based reliability model, to assess the performance of these designs. TMO produces a collection of microgrid designs that perform well with respect to one or more performance metrics.