This study presents the development of a computational framework designed to predict the interaction between permafrost and infrastructure, addressing potential failure modes and mitigation strategies in the context of climate change. The framework, rooted in advanced modeling and simulation (mod/sim) techniques, integrates thermomechanical coupling to account for the complex interplay between heat flow, ice content, and mechanical behavior in permafrost. Existing models fail to fully capture these dynamics, particularly as they relate to the effects of ice saturation on structural integrity. Our innovative Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) framework fills this gap by coupling thermal and mechanical models to accurately simulate subsidence and deformation in permafrost environments. We applied the ACE framework to a representative runway, demonstrating its capability to predict settlement due to rising temperatures and subsequent permafrost thaw. This proof-of-concept showcases the potential of the framework to evaluate risks to Arctic infrastructure, which supports over four million people and 70% of existing permafrost-based structures. By simulating various infrastructure types and environmental conditions, our research offers insights into failure mechanisms and evaluates structural solutions to mitigate risk. The anticipated deliverables, including a prototype runway exemplar, position this project as a critical advancement in permafrost infrastructure modeling, with applications in national security and resilience planning.
Projection-based model order reduction allows for the parsimonious representation of full order models (FOMs), typically obtained through the discretization of a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) using conventional techniques (e.g., finite element, finite volume, finite difference methods) where the discretization may contain a very large number of degrees of freedom. As a result of this more compact representation, the resulting projection-based reduced order models (ROMs) can achieve considerable computational speedups, which are especially useful in real-time or multi-query analyses. One known deficiency of projection-based ROMs is that they can suffer from a lack of robustness, stability and accuracy, especially in the predictive regime, which ultimately limits their useful application. Another research gap that has prevented the widespread adoption of ROMs within the modeling and simulation community is the lack of theoretical and algorithmic foundations necessary for the “plug-and-play” integration of these models into existing multi-scale and multi-physics frameworks. This paper describes a new methodology that has the potential to address both of the aforementioned deficiencies by coupling projection-based ROMs with each other as well as with conventional FOMs by means of the Schwarz alternating method [41]. Leveraging recent work that adapted the Schwarz alternating method to enable consistent and concurrent multiscale coupling of finite element FOMs in solid mechanics [35, 36], we present a new extension of the Schwarz framework that enables FOM-ROM and ROM-ROM coupling, following a domain decomposition of the physical geometry on which a PDE is posed. In order to maintain efficiency and achieve computation speed-ups, we employ hyper-reduction via the Energy-Conserving Sampling and Weighting (ECSW) approach [13]. We evaluate the proposed coupling approach in the reproductive as well as in the predictive regime on a canonical test case that involves the dynamic propagation of a traveling wave in a nonlinear hyper-elastic material.
