This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.
MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System), WinMACCS, and MelMACCS now facilitate a multi-unit consequence analysis. MACCS evaluates the consequences of an atmospheric release of radioactive gases and aerosols into the atmosphere and is most commonly used to perform probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) and related consequence analyses for nuclear power plants (NPPs). WinMACCS is a user-friendly preprocessor for MACCS. MelMACCS extracts source-term information from a MELCOR plot file. The current development can combine an arbitrary number of source terms, representing simultaneous releases from a multi-unit facility, into a single consequence analysis. The development supports different release signatures, fission product inventories, and accident initiation times for each unit. The treatment is completely general except that the model is currently limited to collocated units. A major practical consideration for performing a multi-unit PSA is that a comprehensive treatment for more than two units may involve an intractable number of combinations of source terms. This paper proposes and evaluates an approach for reducing the number of calculations to be tractable, even for sites with eight or ten units. The approximation error introduced by the approach is acceptable and is considerably less than other errors and uncertainties inherent in a Level 3 PSA.
The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) is used by Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This User Guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/WinMACCS model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 3.10.0. Features that have been added to MACCS in subsequent versions are described in separate documentation. This User Guide provides a brief description of the model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2. PAPERWORK REDUCTION ACT STATEMENT The NUREG does not contain information collection requirements and, therefore, is not subject to the requirements of the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (44 USC 3501, et seq.). PUBLIC PROTECTION NOTIFICATION The NRC may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not required to respond to, a request for information or an information collection requirement unless the requesting document displays a currently valid OMB control number. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Contributions to this User Guide were received from NRC and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) project managers, technical experts, and code authors dedicated to the production of a valuable resource for the MACCS user community. Instructions and guidance included herein were developed over many years and include advancements in the code that provide users the ability to develop complex consequence modeling scenarios. WinMACCS and many of the early MACCS developments were due to vision of an earlier Project Manager, Jocelyn Mitchell. Jonathan Barr and AJ Nosek also contributed to the development of this report. The current NRC Project Manager, Salman Haq, provided the leadership to ensure this document was completed. Several other NRC and Sandia staff provided insights supporting development of the MACCS code and of this document.
This document summarily provides brief descriptions of the MELCOR code enhancement made between code revision number 14959and 18019. Revision 14959 represents the previous official code release; therefore, the modeling features described within this document are provided to assist users that update to the newest official MELCOR code release, 18019. Along with the newly updated MELCOR Users Guide and Reference Manual, users are aware and able to assess the new capabilities for their modeling and analysis applications.
This SAND Report provides an overview of AniMACCS, the animation software developed for the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). It details what users need to know in order to successfully generate animations from MACCS results, to include information on the capabilities, requirements, testing, limitations, input settings, and problem reporting instructions for AniMACCS version 1.3. Supporting information is provided in the appendices, such as guidance on required input files using both WinMACCS and running MACCS from the command line. This page left blank
AniMACCS is a utility code in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) software suite that allows for certain MACCS output information to be visually displayed and overlaid onto a geospatial map background. AniMACCS was developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. MACCS is designed to calculate health and economic consequences following a release of radioactive material in the atmosphere. MACCS accomplishes this by modeling the atmospheric dispersion, deposition, and consequences of the release, which depend on several factors including the source term, weather, population, economic, and land-use characteristics of the impacted geographical area. From these inputs, MACCS determines the characteristics of the plume, as well as ground and air concentrations as a function of time and radionuclide.
MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System), WinMACCS, and MelMACCS now facilitate a multi-unit consequence analysis. MACCS evaluates the consequences of an atmospheric release of radioactive gases and aerosols into the atmosphere and is most commonly used to perform probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) and related consequence analyses for nuclear power plants (NPPs). WinMACCS is a user-friendly preprocessor for MACCS. MelMACCS extracts source-term information from a MELCOR plot file. The current development can combine an arbitrary number of source terms, representing simultaneous releases from a multi-unit facility, into a single consequence analysis. The development supports different release signatures, fission product inventories, and accident initiation times for each unit. The treatment is completely general except that the model is currently limited to collocated units. A major practical consideration for performing a multi-unit PSA is that a comprehensive treatment for more than two units may involve an intractable number of combinations of source terms. This paper proposes and evaluates an approach for reducing the number of calculations to be tractable, even for sites with eight or ten units. The approximation error introduced by the approach is acceptable and is considerably less than other errors and uncertainties inherent in a Level 3 PSA.
The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.
Three codes are used for comparisons in this report to evaluate the adequacy of MACCS in the nearfield, AERMOD, ARCON96 and QUIC. Test cases were developed to give a broad range of weather conditions, building dimensions and plume buoyancy. Based on the comparisons of MACCS with AERMOD, ARCON96 and QUIC across the test cases, the following observations are made: MACCS calculations configured with point-source, ground-level, nonbuoyant plumes provide nearfield results that bound the centerline, ground-level air concentrations from AERMOD, ARCON96, and QUIC. MACCS calculations with ground-level, nonbuoyant plumes that include the effects of the building wake (area source) provide nearfield results that bound the results from AERMOD and QUIC and the results from ARCON96 at distances >250 m. If using a point-source is too conservative and it is desired to bound the results from all three codes, another alternative is to use area source parameters in MACCS that are less than the standard values, i.e., an area source intermediate between the standard recommendation and a point source. All these options provide results from MACCS that are bounding for the test cases evaluated. Based on these observations, it appears that MACCS is adequate for use in nearfield calculations, given the correct parameterization.
The purpose of this document is to discuss the construction of two MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) dose conversion factor (DCF) files in some detail, an older file created in 2007 named FGR13DCF.inp and a newer file created in 2018 called FGR13GyEquiv_RevAinp. Very briefly, the difference between the two files is that the older file follows the standard conventions of assigning a radiation weighting factor of 20 for alpha radiation for all tissues and organs; whereas, the newer file complies with the Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 health effects modeling and uses modified radiation weighting factors (referred to as relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors) for alpha radiation of 10 for breast and of 1 for red bone marrow. During an intermediate period, a file called FGR13GyEquiv.inp was created and used for the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analysis (SOARCA) calculations. This file was not released to the MACCS user community, but it is also discussed briefly in this document.
Many of the BSAF participants provided source terms to be evaluated by Sandia National Laboratories by applying HYSPLIT [2,3,4,5] to treat atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD). The objective was to estimate the deposition pattern that would have resulted from the predicted source term. For the participants who provided results for all three units, the overall deposition pattern can be compared with the observed deposition pattern; for the participants who submitted source terms for one or two units, the results can only be compared with each other. Atmospheric transport calculations were performed for a single isotope, Cs-137. It is the primary isotope of concern for long-term contamination and it is relatively easy to measure the strong gamma signal produced from its short-lived decay product, Ba-137m. All the atmospheric transport calculations used the actual location of each of the three units; the releases were not presumed to emanate from the same location. Also, when they were provided, release energies were accounted for in the analysis, so plume lofting was considered. Finally, aerosol size distribution data were considered for purposes of estimating deposition. In some cases, aerosol size distribution can significantly influence deposition patterns.
In 1973 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed SecPop to calculate population estimates to support a study on air quality. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) adopted this program to support siting reviews for nuclear power plant construction and license applications. Currently SecPop is used to prepare site data input files for offsite consequence calculations with the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). SecPop enables the use of site-specific population, land use, and economic data for a polar grid defined by the user. Updated versions of SecPop have been released to use U.S. decennial census population data. SECPOP90 was released in 1997 to use 1990 population and economic data. SECPOP2000 was released in 2003 to use 2000 population data and 1997 economic data. This report describes the current code version, SecPop version 4.3, which uses 2010 population data and both 2007 and 2012 economic data. It is also compatible with 2000 census and 2002 economic data. At the time of this writing, the current version of SecPop is 4.3.0, and that version is described herein. This report contains guidance for the installation and use of the code as well as a description of the theory, models, and algorithms involved. This report contains appendices which describe the development of the 2010 census file, 2007 county file, and 2012 county file. Finally, an appendix is included that describes the validation assessments performed.
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the state-of-the-art reactor consequence analyses (SOARCA) project to develop realistic estimates of the offsite radiological health consequences for potential severe reactor accidents. The SOARCA analysis of an ice condenser containment plant was performed because its relatively low design pressure and reliance on igniters makes it potentially susceptible to early containment failure from hydrogen combustion during a severe accident. The focus was on station blackout accident scenarios where all alternating current power is lost. Accident progression calculations used the MELCOR computer code and offsite consequence analyses were performed with MACCS. The analysis included more than 500 MELCOR and MACCS simulations to account for uncertainty in important accident progression and offsite consequence input parameters. Consequences from severe nuclear power plant accidents modeled in this and previous SOARCA analyses are smaller than calculated in earlier studies. The delayed releases calculated provide more time for emergency response actions. The results show that early containment failure is very unlikely, even without successful use of igniters. However, these results are dependent on the distributions assigned to safety valve failure-to-close parameters, and considerable uncertainty remains on the true distributions for these parameters due to very limited test data. Even for scenarios resulting in early containment failure, the calculated individual latent fatal cancer risks are very small. Early and latent-cancer fatality risks are one focus of this paper. Regression results showing the most influential parameters are also discussed.
The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) code is the NRC code used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. MACCS is used by U.S. nuclear power plant license renewal applicants to support the plant specific evaluation of severe accident mitigation alternatives (SAMA) analyses as part of an applicant's environmental report for license renewal. MACCS is also used in severe accident mitigation design alternatives (SAMDA) and severe accident consequence analyses for environmental impact statements (EISs) for new reactor applications. The NRC uses MACCS in its cost-benefit assessments supporting regulatory analyses that evaluate potential new regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. NRC regulatory analysis guidelines recommend the use of MACCS to estimate the averted "offsite property damage" cost (benefit) and the averted offsite dose cost elements.
Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.
In the summer of 2020, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to launch a spacecraft as part of the Mars 2020 mission. One option for the rover on the proposed spacecraft uses a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) to provide continuous electrical and thermal power for the mission. NASA has prepared an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act. The EIS includes information on the risks of mission accidents to the general public and on-site workers at the launch complex. The Nuclear Risk Assessment (NRA) addresses the responses of the MMRTG option to potential accident and abort conditions during the launch opportunity for the Mars 2020 mission and the associated consequences. This information provides the technical basis for the radiological risks of the MMRTG option for the EIS. This paper provides a summary of the methods and results used in the NRA.
A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing the range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg ± 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.
This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the model response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)
This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a 'high' source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1, 000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1, 000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of "zero" results).
Spent nuclear fuel reprocessing may involve some hazardous liquids that may explode under accident conditions. Explosive accidents may result in energetic dispersion of the liquid. The atomized liquid represents a major hazard of this class of event. The magnitude of the aerosol source term is difficult to predict, and historically has been estimated from correlations based on marginally relevant data. A technique employing a coupled finite element structural dynamics and control volume computational fluid dynamics has been demonstrated previously for a similar class of problems. The technique was subsequently evaluated for detonation events. Key to the calculations is the use of a Taylor Analogy Break-up (TAB) based model for predicting the aerodynamic break-up of the liquid drops in the air environment, and a dimensionless parameter for defining the chronology of the mass and momentum coupling. This paper presents results of liquid aerosolization from an explosive event.
Spent nuclear fuel reprocessing may involve some hazardous liquids that may explode under accident conditions. Explosive accidents may result in energetic dispersion of the liquid. The atomized liquid represents a major hazard of this class of event. The magnitude of the aerosol source term is difficult to predict, and historically has been estimated from correlations based on marginally relevant data. A technique employing a coupled finite element structural dynamics and control volume computational fluid dynamics has been demonstrated previously for a similar class of problems. The technique was subsequently evaluated for detonation events. Key to the calculations is the use of a Taylor Analogy Break-up (TAB) based model for predicting the aerodynamic break-up of the liquid drops in the air environment, and a dimensionless parameter for defining the chronology of the mass and momentum coupling. This paper presents results of liquid aerosolization from an explosive event.
In the summer of 2020, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to launch a spacecraft as part of the Mars 2020 mission. One option for the rover on the proposed spacecraft uses a Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) to provide continuous electrical and thermal power for the mission. An alternative option being considered is a set of solar panels for electrical power with up to 80 Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHUs) for local component heating. Both the MMRTG and the LWRHUs use radioactive plutonium dioxide. NASA is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act. The EIS will include information on the risks of mission accidents to the general public and on-site workers at the launch complex. This Nuclear Risk Assessment (NRA) addresses the responses of the MMRTG or LWRHU options to potential accident and abort conditions during the launch opportunity for the Mars 2020 mission and the associated consequences. This information provides the technical basis for the radiological risks of both options for the EIS.
Nuclear thermal rockets (NTR) have the potential to greatly enhance payloads from low earth orbit to Mars, the Moon, or other deep space destinations. NTR tests at the Nevada Test Site in the 1960s produced some release of radioactive fission products in the rocket exhaust. This release came from some degradation of the surface coating on the reactor fuel and coolant channels during the high-temperature operation. This paper estimates the potential doses and health effects to populations on Earth should comparable releases occur during NTR thrusting in low earth orbit during a mission to Mars or other destinations. A multi-compartment atmospheric model is developed to track the time needed for exhaust components to reach the surface of the earth. Isotopic decay is included in this model. Because most fission products have a short half-life and the time for aerosols to reach the earth's surface is many years, very little radioactive material reaches the earth's surface. The average dose per person from a typical NTR thrusting operation in low earth orbit (using the NTR designs of the 1960s) is calculated to be about 1E-08 of the dose received from natural background radiation.
This paper describes the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) dose-truncation sensitivity of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses unmitigated long-term station blackout severe accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. Latent-cancer-fatality (LCF) risk results for this sensitivity study are presented for three dose-response models. LCF risks are reported for circular areas ranging from a 10-to a 50-mile radius centered on the plant. For the linear, no-threshold, sensitivity analysis, all regression methods consistently rank the MACCS2 dry deposition velocity and the MELCOR safety relief valve (SRV) stochastic failure probability, respectively, as the most important input parameters. For the alternative dose-truncation models (i.e., USBGR (0.62 rem/yr) and HPS (5 rem/yr with a lifetime limit of 10 rem)) sensitivity analyses, the regression methods consistently rank the MACCS2 inhalation protection factor for normal activity, the MACCS2 lung lifetime risk factor for cancer death, and the MELCOR SRV stochastic failure probability as the most important input variables. The important MELCOR input parameters are relatively independent of the dose-response model used in MACCS2. However, the MACCS2 input variables depend strongly on the dose-response model. The use of either the USBGR or the HPS dose-response model emphasizes MACCS2 input variables associated with doses received in the first year and deemphasizes MACCS2 input parameters associated with long-term phase doses beyond the first year.
This paper describes the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2(MACCS2), parameters and probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident - latent-cancer-fatality (LCF) risk per event or prompt-fatality risk per event. For the mean, individual, LCF risk, all regression methods at each of the circular areas around the plant that are analyzed (10-mile to 50-mile radii are considered) consistently rank the MACCS2 dry deposition velocity, the MELCOR safety relief valve (SRV) stochastic failure probability, and the MACCS2 residual cancer risk factor, respectively, as the most important input parameters. For the mean, individual, prompt-fatality risk (which is zero in over 85% of the Monte Carlo realizations) within circular areas with less than a 2-mile radius, the non-rank regression methods consistently rank the MACCS2 wet deposition parameter, the MELCOR SRV stochastic failure probability, the MELCOR SRV open area fraction, the MACCS2 early health effects threshold for red bone marrow, and the MACCS2 crosswind dispersion coefficient, respectively, as the most important input parameters. For the mean, individual prompt-fatality risk within the circular areas with radii between 2.5-miles and 3.5-miles, the regression methods consistently rank the MACCS2 crosswind dispersion coefficient, the MACCS2 early health effects threshold for red bone marrow, the MELCOR SRV stochastic failure probability, and the MELCOR SRV open area fraction, respectively, as the most important input parameters.
The dose limits for emissions from the nuclear fuel cycle were established by the Environmental Protection Agency in 40 CFR Part 190 in 1977. These limits were based on assumptions regarding the growth of nuclear power and the technical capabilities of decontamination systems as well as the then-current knowledge of atmospheric dispersion and the biological effects of ionizing radiation. In the more than thirty years since the adoption of the limits, much has changed with respect to the scale of nuclear energy deployment in the United States and the scientific knowledge associated with modeling health effects from radioactivity release. Sandia National Laboratories conducted a study to examine and understand the methodologies and technical bases of 40 CFR 190 and also to determine if the conclusions of the earlier work would be different today given the current projected growth of nuclear power and the advances in scientific understanding. This report documents the results of that work.
The Department of Energy has assigned to Sandia National Laboratories the responsibility of producing a Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the plutonium-dioxide fueled Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) proposed to be used in the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. The National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) is anticipating a launch in fall of 2009, and the SAR will play a critical role in the launch approval process. As in past safety evaluations of MMRTG missions, a wide range of potential accident conditions differing widely in probability and seventy must be considered, and the resulting risk to the public will be presented in the form of probability distribution functions of health effects in terms of latent cancer fatalities. The basic descriptions of accident cases will be provided by NASA in the MSL SAR Databook for the mission, and on the basis of these descriptions, Sandia will apply a variety of sophisticated computational simulation tools to evaluate the potential release of plutonium dioxide, its transport to human populations, and the consequent health effects. The first step in carrying out this project is to evaluate the existing computational analysis tools (computer codes) for suitability to the analysis and, when appropriate, to identify areas where modifications or improvements are warranted. The overall calculation of health risks can be divided into three levels of analysis. Level A involves detailed simulations of the interactions of the MMRTG or its components with the broad range of insults (e.g., shrapnel, blast waves, fires) posed by the various accident environments. There are a number of candidate codes for this level; they are typically high resolution computational simulation tools that capture details of each type of interaction and that can predict damage and plutonium dioxide release for a range of choices of controlling parameters. Level B utilizes these detailed results to study many thousands of possible event sequences and to build up a statistical representation of the releases for each accident case. A code to carry out this process will have to be developed or adapted from previous MMRTG missions. Finally, Level C translates the release (or ''source term'') information from Level B into public risk by applying models for atmospheric transport and the health consequences of exposure to the released plutonium dioxide. A number of candidate codes for this level of analysis are available. This report surveys the range of available codes and tools for each of these levels and makes recommendations for which choices are best for the MSL mission. It also identities areas where improvements to the codes are needed. In some cases a second tier of codes may be identified to provide supporting or clarifying insight about particular issues. The main focus of the methodology assessment is to identify a suite of computational tools that can produce a high quality SAR that can be successfully reviewed by external bodies (such as the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel) on the schedule established by NASA and DOE.
VICTORIA 2.0 is a mechanistic computer code designed to analyze fission product behavior within the reactor coolant system (RCS) during a severe nuclear reactor accident. It provides detailed predictions of the release of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from the reactor core and transport and deposition of these materials within the RCS and secondary circuits. These predictions account for the chemical and aerosol processes that affect radionuclide behavior. VICTORIA 2.0 was released in early 1999; a new version VICTORIA 2.1, is now under development. The largest improvements in VICTORIA 2.1 are connected with the thermochemical database, which is being revised and expanded following the recommendations of a peer review. Three risk-significant severe accident sequences have recently been investigated using the VICTORIA 2.0 code. The focus here is on how various chemistry options affect the predictions. Additionally, the VICTORIA predictions are compared with ones made using the MELCOR code. The three sequences are a station blackout in a GE BWR and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and pump-seal LOCA sequences in a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR. These sequences cover a range of system pressures, from fully depressurized to full system pressure. The chief results of this study are the fission product fractions that are retained in the core, RCS, secondary, and containment and the fractions that are released into the environment.
The MELCOR and VICTORIA severe accident analysis codes, which were developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, are designed to estimate fission product releases during nuclear reactor accidents in light water reactors. MELCOR is an integrated plant-assessment code that models the key phenomena in adequate detail for risk-assessment purposes. VICTORIA is a more specialized fission- product code that provides detailed modeling of chemical reactions and aerosol processes under the high-temperature conditions encountered in the reactor coolant system during a severe reactor accident. This paper focuses on recent enhancements and assessments of the two codes in the area of fission product chemistry modeling. Recently, a model for iodine chemistry in aqueous pools in the containment building was incorporated into the MELCOR code. The model calculates dissolution of iodine into the pool and releases of organic and inorganic iodine vapors from the pool into the containment atmosphere. The main purpose of this model is to evaluate the effect of long-term revolatilization of dissolved iodine. Inputs to the model include dose rate in the pool, the amount of chloride-containing polymer, such as Hypalon, and the amount of buffering agents in the containment. Model predictions are compared against the Radioiodine Test Facility (RTF) experiments conduced by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), specifically International Standard Problem 41. Improvements to VICTORIA's chemical reactions models were implemented as a result of recommendations from a peer review of VICTORIA that was completed last year. Specifically, an option is now included to model aerosols and deposited fission products as three condensed phases in addition to the original option of a single condensed phase. The three-condensed-phase model results in somewhat higher predicted fission product volatilities than does the single-condensed-phase model. Modeling of U02 thermochemistry was also improved, and results in better prediction of vaporization of uranium from fuel, which can react with released fission products to affect their volatility. This model also improves the prediction of fission product release rates from fuel. Finally, recent comparisons of MELCOR and VICTORIA with International Standard Problem 40 (STORM) data are presented. These comparisons focus on predicted therrnophoretic deposition, which is the dominant deposition mechanism. Sensitivity studies were performed with the codes to examine experimental and modeling uncertainties.
This report documents the RADTRAD computer code developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) to estimate transport and removal of radionuclides and dose at selected receptors. The document includes a users` guide to the code, a description of the technical basis for the code, the quality assurance and code acceptance testing documentation, and a programmers` guide. The RADTRAD code can be used to estimate the containment release using either the NRC TID-14844 or NUREG-1465 source terms and assumptions, or a user-specified table. In addition, the code can account for a reduction in the quantity of radioactive material due to containment sprays, natural deposition, filters, and other natural and engineered safety features. The RADTRAD code uses a combination of tables and/or numerical models of source term reduction phenomena to determine the time-dependent dose at user-specified locations for a given accident scenario. The code system also provides the inventory, decay chain, and dose conversion factor tables needed for the dose calculation. The RADTRAD code can be used to assess occupational radiation exposures, typically in the control room; to estimate site boundary doses; and to estimate dose attenuation due to modification of a facility or accident sequence.
VICTORIA is a mechanistic computer code designed to analyze fission product behavior within a nuclear reactor coolant system (RCS) during a severe accident. It provides detailed predictions of the release of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from the reactor core and transport and deposition of these materials within the RCS. A summary of the results and recommendations of an independent peer review of VICTORIA by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is presented, along with recent applications of the code. The latter include analyses of a temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture sequence and post-test analyses of the Phebus FPT-1 test. The next planned Phebus test, FTP-4, will focus on fission product releases from a rubble bed, especially those of the less-volatile elements, and on the speciation of the released elements. Pretest analyses using VICTORIA to estimate the magnitude and timing of releases are presented. The predicted release of uranium is a matter of particular importance because of concern about filter plugging during the test.
VICTORIA-92 is a mechanistic computer code for analyzing fission product behavior within the reactor coolant system (RCS) during a severe reactor accident. It provides detailed predictions of the release of radionuclides and nonradioactive materials from the core and transport of these materials within the RCS. The modeling accounts for the chemical and aerosol processes that affect radionuclide behavior. Coupling of detailed chemistry and aerosol packages is a unique feature of VICTORIA; it allows exploration of phenomena involving deposition, revaporization, and re-entrainment that cannot be resolved with other codes. The purpose of this work is to determine the attenuation of fission products in the RCS and on the secondary side of the steam generator in an accident initiated by a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). As a class, bypass sequences have been identified in NUREG-1150 as being risk dominant for the Surry and Sequoyah pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants.
FPT0 is the first of six tests that are scheduled to be conducted in an experimental reactor in Cadarache, France. The test apparatus consists of an in-pile fuel bundle, an upper plenum, a hot leg, a steam generator, a cold leg, and a small containment. Thus, the test is integral in the sense that it attempts to simulate all of the processes that would be operative in a severe nuclear accident. In FPT0, the fuel will be trace irradiated; in subsequent tests high burn-up fuel will be used. This report discusses separate pretest analyses of the FPT0 fuel bundle and primary circuit have been conducted using the USNRC`s source term code, VICTORIA-92. Predictions for release of fission product, control rod, and structural elements from the test section are compared with those given by CORSOR-M. In general, the releases predicted by VICTORIA-92 occur earlier than those predicted by CORSOR-M. The other notable difference is that U release is predicted to be on a par with that of the control rod elements; CORSOR-M predicts U release to be about 2 orders of magnitude greater.
VICTORIA is a mechanistic computer code that treats fission product behavior in the reactor coolant system during a severe accident. During an accident, fission products that deposit on structural surfaces produce heat loads that can cause fission products to revaporize and possibly cause structures, such as a pipe, to fail. This mechanism had been lacking from the VICTORIA model. This report describes the structural heat-up model that has recently been implemented in the code. A sample problem shows that revaporization of fission products can occur as structures heat up due to radioactive decay. In the sample problem, the mass of deposited fission products reaches a maximum, then diminishes. Similarly, temperatures of the deposited film and adjoining structure reach a maximum, then diminish.
